Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
issued by National Weather Service Binghamton New York
148 PM EDT Thursday Oct 30 2014
a small high pressure system will produce fair and seasonably cool
weather across the region today through Friday. Colder air will
arrive during the weekend as a strong storm forms well off the New
England coast. The colder air will be accompanied by some rain or
snow showers and gusty winds.
Near term /through tonight/...
updated at 1 PM... 12z buf and alb soundings both showing a moist
layer beneath an inversion around 750 mb. Result is a large area
of cloudiness covering most of New York state. However downsloping has
resulted in some clearing in the Hudson River and Champlain valleys.
This pattern will persist through the afternoon with mostly cloudy
conditions west of the Hudson Valley with partly sunny conditions
in the valley and farther east. Temperatures early this afternoon
range from the middle 40s at higher elevations to the middle 50s in the
Hudson Valley... and highs this afternoon will range from the
upper 40s to upper 50s. Previous discussion is below.
Updated at 1030 am... lot of clouds covering central New York this
morning associated with a 500 mb short wave and some lake
enhancement southeast and east of Lake Ontario. These clouds have
been breaking up as they downslope into the middle and lower Hudson
Valley. Expect this trend to continue through this afternoon with
mostly cloudy skies over Vermont and west of the Hudson Valley with
partly cloudy skies in the valley. Temperatures will be mostly in
the lower to middle 50s with some 40s over higher elevations.
Previous discussion is below.
As of 630 am...satellite pics show cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions
across most of the forecast area. The cloud band over the region
will slowly break up today and allow for at least partly sunny skies
by this afternoon. Will continue to forecast 20 to 30 percent probability of precipitation
this morning over the Schoharie and Mohawk valleys and the western
Adirondacks. Highs today will generally be in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
For this update have significantly raised the hourly temperature grids
because current temperatures were much warmer than previously forecast.
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
the small high pressure system will hold across the region through
Friday. Generally partly cloudy conditions expected tonight and
Friday...with some areas of mostly clear later tonight and early
Friday. By late Friday clouds will begin to increase ahead of the
strong upper level short wave trough. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs Friday in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
The center of the upper level trough will track well to our south and
east Friday night and Saturday as a strong surface low begins to
develop off the middle Atlantic coast and then track northeast. Any
significant precipitation associated with the offshore low will miss the
Albany forecast area...but there will be some rain or snow showers
across the region Friday night and Saturday due to the upper level
trough...and have forecast 30 to 50 percent probability of precipitation during this period.
Lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Highs Saturday
in the 40s to lower 50s.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
the extended forecast features a chilly start to close the
weekend..but then moderating temperatures in the middle week before
the next cold front arrives. The wpc guidance was favored in the
long term. The European model (ecmwf)...GFS...and ensembles are in fairly good
agreement throughout with wpc.
Saturday night into Sunday...impressive h500 upper trough will be
over the eastern Continental U.S.. significant oceanic cyclone looks to stay far
enough offshore for minimal impact in terms of precipitation...but it will be
cold and windy. The upper level low will focus some isolated-scattered snow
showers Saturday night before drier air filters in. Any snow
accumulations look to be light over the higher terrain. Lows
Saturday night will be in the lower to m20s over the higher
terrain...and u20s to l30s in the valleys. By Sunday...the surface
pressure gradient strengthens between the ocean cyclone and a surface
anticyclone over the Tennessee Valley. Brisk north/northwest winds of 10 to 20 miles per hour
and h850 temperatures of -4c to -8c will may it feel like winter! Expect
highs in the 30s over the higher terrain...and u30s to m40s in the
Sunday night through Monday night...fair and dry weather is expected
as a ridge of high pressure builds northeast into the forecast area from
the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic region. A very cold night is
expected with lows in the 20s. Monday...temperatures creep closer to
normal early November readings but still will run below normal by 5
degrees or so with highs generally in the 40s to l50s...though a few
u30s are possible in the southern dacks. A warm front starts to approach
from the lower Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley with an increase
in middle and high clouds Monday night. Temperatures will be a tad warmer in the
Tuesday into Wednesday...a nice day is expected Tuesday with a
milder air mass building in across the region. In the warm
advection pattern...h850 temperatures rise back to +8c to +12c. Expect
highs temperatures to be closer to seasonal normals. A cold front
approaches ahead of the next upper level trough Tuesday night into
Wednesday with an increasing threat of showers. Temperatures should still run at
near normal or slightly above normal readings for the middle week.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon through Friday. Skies
will be broken- 0vc with ceilings ranging from 4-6 kft this afternoon...
then some clearing is expected tonight with mainly scattered cloud
conditions expected. Some high clouds will develop ahead of an
approaching cold front on Friday along with scattered stratocumulus
clouds but again conditions will remain VFR through the day.
Winds will be west-northwest at 5 to 15 kts this afternoon with a few gusts
to 20 kts... becoming variable less than 10 kts tonight and
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday: low operational impact.Breezy no sig weather. Sunday night: no
operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no significant fire weather issues are expected over the next few
days. Relative humidity values will generally be greater than 50 percent...especially at
night when values will be near 100 percent. Winds will NE northwest
at 5 to 15 miles per hour today...and light tonight into Friday.
no widespread hydrologic concerns over the next several days.
Mainly dry weather is expected through Friday...before an upper
level shortwave trough produces some scattered rain and snow showers
Friday night and Saturday.
Any precipitation over the next few days will be fairly light...and basin
average amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or less through
Sunday. This will allow river levels to hold steady or slowly fall
through the weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.