Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
623 am EDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Synopsis...
with a moist southerly flow in place...some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today...especially
across southern parts of the area. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the
weekend...along with humid conditions...as a slow moving frontal
boundary will be in place nearby along the eastern Seaboard.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 623 am EDT...our region is in broad S-SW flow aloft...as we
remain downstream of a digging trough over the Midwest/Ohio
Valley...and a strong ridge just off the eastern Seaboard. Plenty
of middle and high level clouds have been streaming northeast along
the Atlantic Seaboard. These clouds have made it into the southern
portion of the County Warning Area...so skies range from nearly clear over the
Adirondacks to mostly cloudy for areas from the capital region on
southward. An isolated rain shower is moving northeast across the
Catskills...and this could brush southern parts of the capital
region and into parts of the middle Hudson Valley...Taconics and
Berkshires over the next few hours. Otherwise...it should be
fairly dry across the region through the morning hours.

With abundant low level moisture in place due to yesterday/S
thunderstorms rainfall...areas of fog this morning will persist
for a short time this morning...especially for the Lake George Saratoga
region. Afterward...it will generally be partly sunny through the
day across the entire area. There may be a few isolated to scattered
rain showers or thunderstorms that develop again later in the
day...but coverage will be rather small due to weak large scale
forcing in place. Any shower/thunderstorm looks to develop over
the terrain due to differential heating boundaries...and will
drift north to northeast due to the light flow in place. Instability
will be limited...so thunder will just be isolated at best...and
any shower/thunderstorm looks to be short lived and poorly
organized...with no threat for any strong/severe weather.

Temperatures will be a little warmer than recent days...with highs in the
low to middle 80s for valley areas...and middle to upper 70s for the
high terrain.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
little change in the forecast is expected through the short term
period. The trough axis over the Midwest/Ohio Valley will slowly
shift eastward towards the northeast...with the shortwave
weakening and finally crossing our area by Sunday. Meanwhile...a
surface boundary will become established along the eastern
Seaboard...with a weak wave of low pressure riding up and along
this boundary for Saturday. Precipitable water values will gradually increase
across our area through the weekend...although the best moisture
looks to remain south/east of our area towards New Jersey and eastern New
England.

As a result...we will continue to have a threat for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the entire weekend. Probability of precipitation aren/T any
higher than chance at this time...with the highest values across
southern and eastern parts of the area. Although there will be
some diurnal influences...we can/T rule out any
showers/thunderstorms during the overnight periods either. While
the weekend probably won't be a full washout across our
area...it/S possible there could be showers/thunderstorms each
day.

Temperatures each day look fairly seasonable with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s...and overnight lows generally in the middle 50s to low
60s.

&&

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the region remains under a longwave trough for the period...however
uncertainties in the forecast grow as we head into the latter part
of the week. The guidance is having a tough time with the strengthen
and track of individual short waves and their influence on the
longwave pattern. Also...Tropical Storm Bertha developed over the
tropical western Atlantic...east of the southern Lesser Antilles
Thursday night. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane
Center has Bertha expected to be located off the southeast United
States coast by Tuesday evening. Please refer to products issued by
the National Hurricane Center for the forecast and details on Bertha.

For the forecast...have favored guidance from the weather prediction
center for the timing and movement of systems/boundaries to maintain
forecast consistency. The stalled boundary along the East Coast is
expected to dissipate early in the week...as cold frontal boundary
approaches from the northwest. The cold front is expected to move
southeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday ushering a less
humid airmass. Our weather will remained unsettled as we head into
the new work week. In the meantime...a low pressure system is
expected to develop over the plains states by middle week and head
eastward toward the Great Lakes region.

Temperatures are anticipated to seasonably warm with highs generally
in the middle 70s to lower 80s and lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
have broad south-southwest flow aloft across region with longwave
trough axis positioned to our west. At the surface have weak high
pressure over the region and a stalled frontal boundary off the East
Coast. Some radiational fog formed however it has variable due to
some patches of middle and high clouds streaming across the region.
Fog and any stratus will burn off early this morning. VFR conditions
are then expected to prevail through the day. Isolated showers will
continue to occur today. Some fog is expected to develop again
tonight.

Light/calm winds overnight. South to southwest will develop Friday
morning increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Winds will diminish this
evening.

Outlook...
Sat night-Mon: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tue: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
isolated to scattered rain showers or thunderstorms are possible
today...mainly this afternoon and evening...across southern parts
of the area. Relative humidity values will drop to 45 to 55 percent this
afternoon with southerly winds of 5 to 15 miles per hour. Relative humidity values will
recover back to near 100 percent tonight with fog and dew
formation.

Over the weekend...there will be a continued threat for showers
and thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will remain above 50 percent most of
the time...along with light southerly winds.

&&

Hydrology...
isolated to scattered rain showers or thunderstorms are possible
today...mainly this afternoon and evening...across southern parts
of the area. Any showers or thunderstorms are not expected to be
rather organized...and will be short lived...which will prevent
any hydrologic concerns.

However...warmer and more humid conditions will be gradually
returning over the weekend and into early next week. With a
continued threat for showers and thunderstorms...locally heavy
downpours could occur...and minor flooding of poor drainage and
urban areas will be possible if thunderstorms repeatedly pass over
the same locations... especially on the weekend into Monday.

Widespread Hydro issues are not anticipated at this time over the
next 5 days...especially on the main Stem rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis
near term...frugis
short term...frugis
long term...iaa
aviation...iaa
fire weather...frugis
hydrology...frugis

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations