Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
740 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will move over the region tonight...allowing for
cool temperatures and clear skies. As the high pressure moves away
from the area tomorrow into Friday...a warming trend will
begin...with continued mainly dry conditions. An increasing threat
for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend and
into next week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 725 PM EDT...only minor changes were made to forecast for
the overnight. Did add patchy fog to the river valleys for late
tonight. Also added the mention of patchy frost to the portion of
the western Adirondacks where temperatures should dip into the
middle/upper 30s.
As of 423 PM EDT...high pressure is situated over
Ontario and will be moving southeast across upstate New York
tonight. Strong subsidence associated with this high will allow
for clear skies and light winds...which will allow for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop off into the 40s for most
places...with some middle to upper 30s across the western
Adirondacks. Away from bodies of water...it/S possible that there
may be some isolated patches of frost in the Adirondacks...although
since this will occur in uninhabited Forest preserve areas of
northern Hamilton County...no frost advisories are necessary.
Some patchy fog may be possible near lakes and rivers and in
typical valley areas late tonight...especially around Glens Falls and in
the Berkshires.
&&
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
on Thursday...500 hpa will continue to dominated by northwest flow
across the northeast. At the surface...high pressure will continue
to slide southeast and away from the area. The high pressure will
continue to allow for mostly to partly clear skies Thursday into
Thursday night. With the high shifting offshore...the low to middle
level flow will switch to S-SW...so temperatures will be a little warmer
on Thursday than recent days and closer to normal...with middle 70s
to near 80...and upper 60s to low 70s for the high terrain. Temperatures
won't be as cool for Thursday night...with upper 40s to upper 50s
across the area.
By Friday...the flow at 500 hpa will be a bit more zonal over the
northern tier of the Continental U.S....although there will be a weak shortwave
passing through the northwest flow across Ontario and Quebec well to
the north of the area. A weak surface front will be dropping south
out of Canada...but will likely get hung up as a stationary boundary
close to the US/Canadian border. As a result...there won't be much
forcing across our area. However...with daytime heating...and
dewpoints starting to rise to the upper 50s to near 60...there may
be an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. The models
seem to show the capital region/southern Vermont might be the area where
this would occur...so have gone with slight chance probability of precipitation for these
areas...and kept probability of precipitation low elsewhere.
It should be dry Friday night with broad west-SW flow over the area
and partly cloudy skies. Min temperatures on Friday night will range
from the middle 50s to low 60s...with the warmest temperatures around the
capital region.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
model guidance is in agreement having a nearly zonal flow across the
region over the weekend into next week. Guidance does have timing
and amplitude issues moving individual short waves troughs through
this fast flow. A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity of the
region through the period and will oscillate with the passage of
short waves troughs across eastern Canada. Have keep forecast simple
with chances for convection much of the period since confidence in
timing rounds of convection is low at this point.
For the most part the forecast area should remain on the warm side
of the boundary. Expecting Summer warmth with highs in the 80s with
middle to upper 70s across the higher terrain. By early next week...80s
are even expected across the higher terrain with temperatures up the
Hudson Valley approaching 90 degrees. Dew points are expected to
increase rising well into the 60s early next week which will result
in heat index values into the lower to middle 90s.
&&
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected tonight and Thursday. The only exception
is that some radiation fog is possible overnight at kgfl/kpsf once
the atmosphere decouples. Have continued with MVFR visibilities in those
tafs...but there continues to be the possibility for IFR. After
sunrise any fog will burn off quickly. A few cumulus clouds should
develop with the daytime heating Thursday.
Outlook...
Friday...mainly VFR. No sig weather. Possible early am fog at kgfl/kpsf.
Sat...mainly VFR. Slight chance -tsra/-shra.
Sun-Mon...mainly VFR. Chance -tsra/-shra.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns at this time due to the recent wet
weather.
High pressure will settle into the region tonight and bring dry and
normal to below normal temperatures through Thursday night. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Friday and
Saturday...along with a gradual warming trend. Dew formation should
occur each night.
&&
Hydrology...
flows remain above normal for middle June across the Hydro service
area.
Dry weather is expected tonight through tomorrow night...allowing
rivers to continue to gradually lower from the very wet conditions
of the past few weeks. For Friday and into the weekend...there may
isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms...but widespread
rainfall is not anticipated at this time...and not all locations
will see rainfall.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.
&&
Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...frugis
near term...iaa/frugis
short term...frugis
long term...iaa
aviation...iaa/NAS
fire weather...frugis
hydrology...frugis
