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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
109 am EDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Synopsis...
this week will be hot as high pressure builds in across
the region at the surface and aloft. Highs mainly in 80s are
expected much of the week...with some 90s anticipated up the
Hudson River valley during the middle and latter part of the
week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1245 am EDT...a weak disturbance is located just south of
the region. High and middle level clouds continue to stream across
southern areas to the north of this disturbance. Further north and
west...other than occasional patchy middle level clouds...skies are
becoming mostly clear.

With the aforementioned disturbance moving away...cloud cover
will continue to decrease from northwest to southeast through
sunrise...and with winds becoming calm and dew points holding in
the 60s across much of the area...patchy fog is expected to
form...especially in valley locations and any areas which received
rainfall Sunday afternoon. Min temperatures should fall into the upper
50s to middle 60s.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday night/...
ridging will build in at the surface and aloft and temperatures
will warm. Guidance indicates a backdoor cold front will approach
Monday night into Tuesday...however moisture will be very limited
and the ridge will strengthen with the axis shifting eastward.

Above normal temperatures by around 10 degrees to start the
week...with highs in upper 70s to upper 80s Monday and in the 80s
Tuesday. Dew points in the 60s with make for humid/muggy conditions.

Albany's longest heat wave has occurred during this time of
year...please refer to the climate section for details and for
record high temperatures for the week.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
a large upper level ridge still looks to dominate the weather
throughout the extended period...allowing for well above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation.

H850 temperatures look to average between +16c to +18c the entire period.
Most of the time the region will be capped so even with a sufficient
amount of afternoon and early evening surface instability...it will
be difficult for convection to be realized.

The big story will be the high temperatures...which look to crest
around 90 in the valleys each day...middle to upper 80s across the
higher elevations. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. At this
point...dewpoints look to also be in the 60s which would keep
apparent temperatures (which is the what the temperature feels when
combined with humidity) below 100 degrees.

We have kept most days completely dry. The only exceptions might be
Thursday and Friday. Thursday both the European (ecwmf) and GFS
indicated a very weak cold front (or just a surface trough) passing
through which might break the cap and trigger a few showers or
thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon.

Friday...the GFS indicated some convection possibly the result of an
easterly flow as high pressure builds across the Gulf of Maine. This
scenario could add a little more low level moisture and perhaps
working with the remnants of the old frontal boundary. However...it
should be noted the European model (ecmwf) does not indicate this feature on Friday
as it build the high closer to our region with really not much flow
at all and producing more subsidence over the region.

Now...we decided to include 20 probability of precipitation both Thursday and Friday but at
no other time frame.

The sky will range from sunny to partly cloudy during the
day...mainly clear at night. There could be patchy valley fog but
did not include it during the extended at this time.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
a large upper level ridge still looks to dominate the weather
throughout the extended period...allowing for well above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation.

H850 temperatures look to average between +16c to +18c the entire period.
Most of the time the region will be capped so even with a sufficient
amount of afternoon and early evening surface instability...it will
be difficult for convection to be realized.

The big story will be the high temperatures...which look to crest
around 90 in the valleys each day...middle to upper 80s across the
higher elevations. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. At this
point...dewpoints look to also be in the 60s which would keep
apparent temperatures (which is the what the temperature feels when
combined with humidity) below 100 degrees.

We have kept most days completely dry. The only exceptions might be
Thursday and Friday. Thursday both the European (ecwmf) and GFS
indicated a very weak cold front (or just a surface trough) passing
through which might break the cap and trigger a few showers or
thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon.

Friday...the GFS indicated some convection possibly the result of an
easterly flow as high pressure builds across the Gulf of Maine. This
scenario could add a little more low level moisture and perhaps
working with the remnants of the old frontal boundary. However...it
should be noted the European model (ecmwf) does not indicate this feature on Friday
as it build the high closer to our region with really not much flow
at all and producing more subsidence over the region.

Now...we decided to include 20 probability of precipitation both Thursday and Friday but at
no other time frame.

The sky will range from sunny to partly cloudy during the
day...mainly clear at night. There could be patchy valley fog but
did not include it during the extended at this time.

&&

Aviation /05z Monday through Friday/...
clouds will generally decrease overnight as a disturbance moves
away from our region. This could allow for a period of IFR fog
late tonight at kpsf/gfl...although it will ultimately depend on
how quickly the clouds depart. Kalb/kpou could see a brief period
of MVFR br around sunrise...otherwise VFR conditions look to
continue at these sites. Winds will be calm overnight. Any fog
looks to dissipate by around 12z.

During the day on Monday...VFR conditions will be in place for
all taf sites with scattered cirrus clouds around. Some scattered cumulus may
develop by afternoon...mainly over the high terrain. Skies will become
sky clear this evening with fog developing at kgfl/kpsf around 03z.
Light and variable winds overnight will become S-SW at 5-10 kts
on Monday and then become light and variable again Monday evening.

Outlook...
Monday night: no operational impact. Patchy fog.
Tue: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. Patchy fog.
Wed: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thu: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Fri: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
dry weather is expect for much of the upcoming week.

Most of the region has not seen significant rainfall in over a
week. This had led to the keetch-Byram drought index approaching
300 in our southern most counties...and likely to continue to rise
over the days to come.

Winds during the next week look to remain calm at night and
light during the day...generally under 10 miles per hour.

A full or nearly full recovery is expected each of the next
several nights allowing for the formation of dew.

Relative humidity values during the afternoon will be in the
moderate range...40 to 60 percent.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic problems are expected the next several days.
Expecting dry and hot weather as ridging builds in at the surface
and aloft across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Climate...
the longest heat in Albany has been 10 days long and it occurred August 27
through September 5 in 1953. The record high temperatures for August 29, 30
and 31 and September 1, 2 and 3 were all set during this heat and stand today.
Daily temperature records Albany date back to 1874.

Here are some record high temperatures for this week...

August 31...
albany: 93 degrees 1953
glens falls: 92 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 100 degrees 1953

September 1...
albany: 96 degrees 1953
glens falls: 91 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953

September 2...
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 97 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 101 degrees 1953

September 3...
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 95 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953

September 4...
albany: 97 degrees 1929
glens falls: 92 degrees 1973
poughkeepsie: 96 degrees 1973

Records date back to 1949 for Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie...however
note that data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 for
Poughkeepsie.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...iaa
near term...iaa/frugis/kl
short term...iaa
long term...hwjiv
aviation...frugis/11
fire weather...hwjiv
hydrology...iaa
climate...

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