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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
846 am EST Thursday Dec 25 2014

an intensifying storm system north of Georgian Bay will track
northward through Quebec today. A cold front associated with the
storm will continue to push through our region early this
morning...with rain tapering to scattered showers behind the cold
front. Strong gusty winds and gradually falling temperatures are
expected by this afternoon. High pressure will then build across the
middle Atlantic region...providing dry conditions and mild temperatures
Friday into Saturday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 830 am EST...cold front has cleared our western New England
counties as winds have quickly shifted to a westerly direction.
Satellite imagery suggests some breaks in the clouds occurring over
the Hudson River valley...however...ample stratus seen upstream.
Furthermore...per the water vapor imagery...short wave was quickly
moving across western New York. So this will keep clouds in the picture
a little longer and have adjusted the grids accordingly. The
passage of this wave will signify both an increase in the winds
and some decrease in the clouds /mainly into the Hudson River
valley and portions of Litchfield County CT/.

Temperatures were quite warm early this morning for much of the
area...with widespread 50s and even some lower 60s south and east
of Albany some cooling has occurred with cold
advection commencing behind the cold front. Deeper mixing will
occur behind the front which will allow for a secondary maximum
/although not as warm as earlier this morning/ in the lower to middle
50s from Albany southward from late this morning into early
afternoon. Then temperatures should start to fall again during the

Winds will steadily increase through the morning into the
afternoon hours as deeper mixing develops in the cold advection
regime. No changes to the current Wind Advisory area...with gusts
up to 50 miles per hour. Outside of the advisory area...wind gusts of 35 to
45 miles per hour will still be possible.

Showers will taper off behind the front by middle morning across most
of the region. However...lake enhanced moisture and a developing
westerly upslope flow will result in additional rain transitioning
to snow showers across mainly the western Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley later this morning into the afternoon. Any snow
accumulations will be light /less than 1 inch/ and confined to the
higher terrain.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
surface high pressure will crest to our south across the
Virginia/Carolinas tonight...with ridging extending northward into
our region. With the flow becoming more anticyclonic...wind speeds
will start to decrease after dark. Winds will still be rather
gusty...but should be below advisory criteria by 6 PM. Some
lingering upslope snow showers will still be possible across the
western Adirondacks...but will likely be diminishing overnight.
Temperatures will be much colder but still above normal with lows
mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Tranquil conditions expected for Friday and Friday high
pressure very slowly meanders east from the Carolinas. Westerly flow
around the periphery of the anticyclone will result in partly to
mostly sunny skies for Friday with temperatures continuing to be
above normal as the mean upper ridge remains in place across the
eastern Continental U.S..

A cold front will approach from the north and west late
Saturday...associated with an area of low pressure tracking
northeastward through the central Great Lakes into southern Ontario.
However...models have backed off on any showers associated with this
system until after dark so will mention dry conditions through the
daylight hours. Clouds will start to increase...especially for areas
north and west of the capital region during the afternoon. It will
continue to be mild with temperatures running a good 10+ degrees above
normal for late December.


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
during the extended period...modified Arctic air will return to the

The first cold front associated with this airmass will work toward
our region late Saturday night into Sunday. With the combination of
clouds and an increasing southwesterly breeze ahead of the
front...temperatures will stay relatively mild (at least by late
December standards) with lows Saturday night in the 30s...mainly
above freezing.

On Sunday the first two cold fronts will slowly cross our region.
There could be some light showers of mainly rain...changing to snow
across our northern areas. Temperatures will hold in the 30s across
the Adirondacks and southern greens...topping out in the lower to
middle 40s across most other areas...except around 50 in the middle Hudson
Valley and lower Litchfield County where the front will not cross
until late in the day. Little or no snow will accumulate across the
Adirondacks. The second cold front looks to cross the region late in
the day or early Sunday evening.

Late Sunday night into Monday...a sprawling high pressure...centered
over southwestern Canada...will build into our region. It will turn
colder with lows falling into the 20s Sunday night along with a
breeze. There could be a few lingering showers of snow...but
otherwise it will be mainly dry. By Monday...some sunshine looks to
return with highs holding in the 20s across the Adirondacks and
southern greens...lower to middle 30s most other locations...except
upper 30s in the middle Hudson Valley and lower Litchfield County.

By Monday night...a very weak disturbance...could bring some more
clouds a few More Lake enhanced snow showers to mainly our northern
areas...with only a smattering of light accumulations expected...if
any. Temperatures will tumble into the teens across our northern
areas...20s Albany southward.

Tuesday should be mainly dry and seasonably cold with any flurries
or isolated snow showers confined to the higher terrain...mainly
west of the Hudson Valley. Highs will range from the middle 30s middle
Hudson around 30 in most other valley locations. The
higher terrain will be in the 20s. Tuesday night looks dry with a
partly cloudy sky and lows in the teens...except lower 20s in the
middle Hudson Valley and lower Litchfield.

A weak trough working across the Great Lakes could trigger some snow
showers in our northern areas for next Wednesday...but again these
look light. Areas from the capital region southward look to remain
dry. High temperatures will range from the lower 30s in southern
areas...upper 20s in and around Albany...lower 20s well north of the
capital region.


Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 600 am EST...the cold front and its associated showers were in
the process of crossing the taf sites. The showers should be gone by
12z in all the tafs but perhaps kpsf where vcsh will be left in
until 14z.

The good news...mainly VFR conditions are expected through the taf
period (possibly starting as MVFR at kpsf through about 14z). Ceilings
will be over 3000 feet...becoming scattered at kpou.

The bad news is that the winds will be quite gusty through the day
from a west or west-southwest direction. The wind will average 10-15 kts but will
gust around 30kts at all the taf sites...and perhaps up to 40kts at
kpsf and kalb...especially midday into the early afternoon.

The wind will subside a bit tonight...down to around 10kts with
gusts diminishing to 20kts or less at all stations after about 02z.
Otherwise VFR conditions will continue to prevail.


Friday through Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


a Flood Warning has been issued for The Mettawee river at Granville
for minor flooding. appears while river levels are
slightly rising especially where snowmelt has been a factor over the
higher other river points are expected to reach flood
stage. Rainfall yesterday was also not as heavy as initially the Flood Watch has been cancelled.

After a rather substantial break in the rainfall...showers are
filling back in along a cold front pushing eastward across the
region. Additional rainfall amounts will only be around one tenth to
one quarter no additional flooding is anticipated.

Other than scattered rain/snow showers today...drier weather and
windy conditions are expected. Winds will diminish by Friday...with
tranquil weather lasting through Saturday. This should allow for
river levels to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for nyz032-033-
Massachusetts...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for maz001-025.


near term...bgm/jpv
short term...jpv
long term...hwjiv

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