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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
337 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015

Synopsis...
a weak disturbance aloft will allow for increasing clouds as well
as isolated showers or thunderstorms today. Afterward...an upper
level ridge of high pressure will become situated over the region
for much of the upcoming week...allowing for above normal
temperatures and increased levels of humidity.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
for today expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance to chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
this afternoon across the southern two thirds of the forecast area. The
highest probability of precipitation will be across the far southeast portion of the forecast area.
This is in response to the weak disturbance aloft moving across
the forecast area. Despite the fact that it will be difficult to pop any
convection across the forecast area with a strong subsidence inversion in
place. A few showers and thunderstorms may move into the forecast area from
the west before they weaken as indicated by current radar trends.
Highs this afternoon will be in the middle 70s to middle 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to middle 60s making it feel a little
uncomfortable.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
high pressure will be the dominant feature across the forecast area through
the short term period. There will be a gradual increase in
temperature and humidity as we go from into the middle week period.
Despite the humidity is expected to be dry through Tuesday night.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with highs
on Monday in the upper 70s to around 90. Lows Monday night are
once again expected to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with highs on
Tuesday in the 80s to around 90. Lows Tuesday night are expected
to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Dewpoints will generally be in
the 60s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
a large upper level ridge will dominate the weather through most
of the extended period...allowing for above normal temperatures
and generally below normal precipitation.

The combination of high middle/upper level heights...850 temperatures in the
+16 to +18 c range...and a low level northwest wind flow should
allow maximum temperatures to reach at least the lower 90s within much of the
Hudson River valley for Wednesday and Thursday...85-90 in the Mohawk Valley
region...with 80s for most higher terrain...although some of the
highest peaks of the southern Adirondacks and SW Vermont may remain
slightly cooler...around 80. Humidity levels should be
moderate...with dewpoints in the 60s. This should allow heat indices
both days to reach into the middle to perhaps upper 90s within the
Hudson River valley...and lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight min temperatures
for Wednesday nt/Thursday am and Thursday nt/Friday am should mainly be in the 60s.

A weak upper level impulse may approach from the west/northwest
sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. In addition...a weak back door cold
front associated with this feature may settle southwest into the
forecast area on Friday. Overall forcing with these features should
remain weak...however there may be just enough instability working
in tandem with the weak forcing to allow for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers/thunderstorms...especially Thursday and Friday. Friday maximum temperatures may
be slightly cooler due to more clouds...and the possibility of
isolated to scattered convection...with 80s for most lower
elevations...and middle 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain.

Models suggest that a surface high builds into the region from the
northeast or east for late Friday into Sat...with the possible backdoor
cold frontal boundary pushing west and south of the region. Will
indicate dry conditions during this time period...along with
slightly cooler temperatures...albeit still above seasonal levels...with
maximum temperatures on Sat ranging from 75-80 across higher terrain...to the
Lower/Middle 80s in valleys. Friday nt/Sat am min temperatures should fall into
the lower 60s in lower elevations...and middle/upper 50s across higher
elevations.

&&

Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
an upper level disturbance will approach from the Great Lakes
overnight into Sunday morning...and pass through the region early
Sunday afternoon. As this feature moves through...expect plenty of
middle level clouds. Isolated showers will also be possible across
southern areas...such as kpou...Sunday afternoon.

Through daybreak...patches of middle level clouds will continue to
stream eastward across the terminals. There will be occasional
breaks in these clouds prior to 09z/sun...especially at kalb/kpsf and
kpou. Periods of radiational cooling may allow patchy fog to
develop...with the best chance for any associated visibility/ceiling
restrictions at kpsf where some MVFR/IFR could occur.
Elsewhere...expect mainly VFR through daybreak. Middle level clouds
should thicken from west to east between 09z-11z/sun.

After daybreak...VFR conditions should prevail for most of
Sunday...despite broken-overcast middle level clouds. The clouds may thin out
later in the day from northwest to southeast. Also...isolated showers may occur
at kpou in the afternoon.

For sun nt...the middle level clouds should continue to clear out
from northwest to southeast. A period of radiational cooling may allow patchy
fog to develop prior to 06z/Monday at kgfl and kpsf...where some MVFR
visibilities are indicated.

Outlook...
Sun night-Wednesday night: patchy fog late at night/early in the am.
Thu: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...thunderstorms and rain

&&

Fire weather...
a weak disturbance aloft will allow for increasing clouds as well
as isolated showers or thunderstorms today. Afterward...an upper
level ridge of high pressure will become situated over the region
for much of the upcoming week...allowing for above normal
temperatures and increased levels of humidity.

Relative humidity levels will drop to 40 to 60 percent this
afternoon...recover to 90 to 100 percent tonight with heavy dew
formation and drop to 40 to 65 percent Monday afternoon.

Winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour today...light and variable
tonight...and west at 5 to 10 miles per hour on Monday.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.

No widespread rainfall is forecast to fall for at least the next
five days as a ridge of high pressure builds in.

River levels will continue to run below normal levels for
August...and if anything...might drop a little more.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis/11
near term...11
short term...11
long term...kl
aviation...kl
fire weather...11
hydrology...11

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