Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
914 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014
an upper level low over New England will move offshore and showers
will gradually end overnight. High pressure will build at all
levels of the atmosphere from Quebec to the Great Lakes region
over the weekend...with increasing sunshine. Monday and much of
the new week this high pressure regime will settle over the
eastern Seaboard with warm dry Summer weather.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 910 PM EDT...a 500hpa low is centered over the Gulf of
Maine. The last 500hpa short WV will drop south across the region
in the flow overnight but with the end of diurnal heating should
not result in much response. -Shra becoming isolated and should remaining
ones should end next few hours.
Aly radiosonde observation has strong inversion around 4k feet...and with all the low
level moisture in place...clouds will remain in place overnight.
Will also allow for some patchy/areas of fog for valley locations
for the second half of the night as well with all the low level
moisture present. Overnight lows look to be in the middle 50s to low
Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and will reissue with only very
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
a drying and warming trend will take place through the short term
period. High pressure over southern Canada will build southward
into the region on Saturday. While there may be a lingering rain
shower on Saturday /mainly for southern or high terrain
areas/...most areas will be drying out. Clouds should break for
some sun from north to south during the afternoon hours...as drier
air begins to work in from southern Canada. Maximum temperatures look to
reach the 70s for most locations.
Dry and quiet weather will be in place between Saturday night and
Sunday night. Overnight lows look to be in the 50s...and daytime
highs on Sunday look to reach the middle 70s to low 80s. Skies look
to be mostly clear during this time period.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
a dry start to the period followed by possible Post-frontal showers
toward the end of the work week...then a return to dry weather for
the start of the weekend. Sunshine will be plentiful through middle-
week...with partly to mostly cloudy skies thereafter. High
temperature readings from mainly the lower 70s to middle 80s will be
the rule Monday and Tuesday...with slightly warmer readings for
Wednesday. Behind the front...things cool down to highs from the
middle 60s to middle 70s by Friday. Lows will be primarily in the 50s or
lower 60 until Friday night...when readings will range from the
upper 40s in the western Adirondacks...to around 60 degrees in the
Lower Middle Hudson Valley.
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
500hpa low is centered along the north New England coast as the last
500hpa short WV will drop south across the region overnight. With
abundant low level moisture in place...and weak winds over region MVFR ceilings
and visibility will persist overnight. Areas of -shra/dz will diminish
as some drying occurs above the boundary layer. However areas of fog are
expected with locally IFR conds after 06utc.
High pressure will ridge at all levels of the atmosphere Sat from
Quebec into the Midwest...with subsidence and drying across the region...
MVFR conds will persist into the morning...but clouds will give way
to scattered-bkn030 by midday with clearing from NE to SW during the afternoon.
Saturday night through wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
scattered showers into tonight will keep fire weather concerns at a
minimum. Relative humidity values will be near 100 percent tonight. Winds will
generally be light and variable tonight. Tomorrow...the relative humidity values
will drop to 50 to 60 percent during the afternoon hours with
clouds breaking for some sunshine. There is just a slight chance
for a rain shower over the high terrain and southern parts of the
area. Winds will continue to be light and variable.
recent heavy rainfall led to flooding last night across parts of
the Mohawk Valley...and smaller rivers and streams continue to be
high across this area due to showers from this morning. The
ground remains rather saturated in the Sacandaga and Saratoga
region as well. Elsewhere...there have been periods of showers
from time to time as well...but rainfall amounts Haven/T been
There may be a few additional rain showers between late tonight
and into tonight...but rainfall rates are expected to be light for
the most part. The only way any additional flooding would occur
would be if a heavy rain shower happened to sit over a location
that saw significant rainfall last evening/night...otherwise no
additional flooding is expected. The coverage of showers will
diminish by later this evening.
The only River Point that is close to flood stage is the
Canajoharie creek at Canajoharie. The river has crested just
below flood stage after this morning/S additional bout of
rain...and looks to continue to recede. The recession may be
slowed if additional rainfall falls over the basin...but the
general trend will be to fall.
Over the weekend and into early next week...a drying trend will
be in place...with just a slight chance for a brief light rain
shower over the high terrain on Saturday. This will allow for the
ground to dry out...and river and stream levels to slowly recede.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on