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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1232 PM EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Synopsis...
an approaching upper level trough will bring some light snow showers
and flurries over the next few days...along with cloudy conditions
and near seasonable temperatures. Any snow accumulation will be
rather light. Much colder temperatures will arrive for Friday into
the weekend...with many locations falling below zero at night over
the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1230 PM EST...weak shortwave ridging and subsidence between
upper level impulses is allowing for breaks in the clouds to
develop across southern and eastern areas...while clouds and light
snow showers/flurries are persisting farther north and northwest...most
persistent across the western Adirondacks.

We expect The Breaks in the clouds across southern areas to expand
northward...so occasional breaks of sunshine are expected during
this afternoon for areas near and south of I-90. Clouds will
likely hang tough across northwest areas...along with occasional light
snow showers/flurries.

As some sunshine develops...expect maximum temperatures to reach the upper
20s to Lower/Middle 30s...while holding generally in the middle/upper
20s where clouds persist...such as across the western Mohawk
Valley and Adirondacks.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
the upper level trough axis will continue to slowly push eastward
tonight into Wednesday. Yet another surface low will develop off the
coast of New Jersey during this time period as well...with an
inverted surface trough expected to set up between NJ/NYC. The models
have been unclear on exactly where this will occur...but the
general consensus has been that it will mainly be south of our
area. Some light snow could make it into the middle Hudson Valley
and northwest CT...and cannot rule out some snow showers/flurries across
the entire area due to the continued cyclonic flow in place. In
either case...precipitation will continue to be very light and spotty
across our area...with an additional coating to an inch of snow
possible. Best chance for around an inch would be across far
southern areas closer to the surface trough. Temperatures tonight look to be
in the 20s...with mainly 30s on Wednesday.

For Wednesday night into Thursday...the trough axis will finally be
moving across the area. A weak boundary looks to cross the
area...allowing some cooler temperatures aloft to move into the region on
west-northwest winds aloft. Some additional light snow showers/flurries will
continue to be possible...although once again...little
accumulation is expected due to scarce moisture/limited coverage.
Best chance of seeing snow showers on Wednesday night/Thursday will be
across far western areas /western Mohawk Valley and western
Adirondacks/ where some moisture off Lake Ontario will help to
locally enhance the precipitation. Lows on Wednesday night will be in the
teens/low 20s...and highs on Thursday will only reach the middle 20s
for valley areas due to the colder temperatures in place aloft.

By Thursday night...the upper level trough won't be as amplified
over the eastern Continental U.S. /For now/...but there will still be a broad
trough in place over the northeast. With ridging becoming stronger
over the western US/western Canada...a piece of the polar vortex
will start to shift southward across Ontario/Quebec. As a result
of this setup....850 hpa temperatures will be falling to around -20 to
-22 degrees c on Thursday night. Some lake effect/lake enhanced snow
showers will be continuing across central New York...which depending on
the exact flow in place...could make it into western parts of the
area. Otherwise...some clearing will finally be occurring...allowing
for a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures will fall into the single
digits...with some below zero temperatures in the Adirondacks and southern
greens.

&&

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
below normal temperatures with the coldest airmass of the season
arriving over the weekend. It will be a remainder of what last
February felt like.

A closed low with short waves rotating about it will drop southward
across Hudson Bay and eastern Canada as we head into the weekend. An
Arctic front is expected to sweep across the region Friday night
ushering the much colder air mass in. The low associated with the
Arctic front is expected to deepen and head off to the northeast
remaining off the New England coast. In the meantime...a strong Arctic
high from central Canada will move southeastward reaching the eastern
United States Sunday. Our region will get squeezed between the departing
low and the advancing ridge which will create a pressure gradient across
the region resulting in brisk and gusty northwesterly winds...only making
the cold temperatures feel colder. Even though winds will be weakening
as the high approaches Saturday night into Sunday...it will not take much
wind with how cold the airmass will be to result in potentially dangerous
to life-threatening wind chills over the weekend particularly Saturday night
into Sunday with the coldest temperatures. Wind chill headlines...both
advisory and warning...will likely be needed over the weekend...so continue
to have the threat in our hazardous weather outlook.

Temperatures on Saturday should see little recovery from the Friday night's
lows due to strong cold air advection in the wake of the Arctic front. As the
upper low passes over the region over the weekend guidance has an 850 mb cold
pool of around -30 celsius passing over the area Saturday night...thus this
will be the coldest period with below zero temperatures expected across the
forecast area. Only looking highs Sunday in the single digits and teens.

With cold cyclonic flow across region to end the work week lake effect
and upslope snows will occur. These will come to an end as the Arctic
high builds in over the weekend.

&&

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
persistent lake-induced trough just to our north will result in plenty
of low-level moisture to produce continued-shsn throughout the
period...though mainly after dark. This will be mixed with br...so
accumulations on runways should be minimal. Very little wind at the
surface or through the column through the period. Thus...mostly
MVFR ceilings and visibility...with as low as IFR visibility overnight and Wednesday
morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shsn.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: moderate operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Hydrology...
tidal issues along the Atlantic Seaboard are resulting in higher
than normal tides up the Hudson River. It appears Poughkeepsie
will experience tidal impacts which may persist the next couple of
days. Otherwise...no other hydrological issues are expected at
this time.

With an approaching upper level trough...a few light snow showers
and flurries are possible through Thursday. Total liquid
equivalent will be very light...generally less than a tenth of an
inch at any one location.

With colder temperatures arriving by later in the week...ice cover
on rivers and lakes will increase in coverage and thickness.
Temperatures should be remain completely below freezing from Wednesday
night through the rest of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Climate...
bitterly cold over the weekend with below zero lows expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning across east central New York and
western New England.

The last time temperatures were below zero was:

Albany ny: -9 degrees on February 24, 2015
note: the low on March 6, 2015 was zero degrees

Glens Falls ny: -15 degrees on March 6, 2015
Poughkeepsie ny: -2 degrees on March 6, 2015
Bennington vt: -11 degrees on March 6, 2015
Pittsfield ma: -4 degrees on March 7, 2015

February 13th...record low maximum temperatures...
albany: 8 degrees set in 1899
glens falls: 4 degrees set in 1979
poughkeepsie: 13 degrees set in 1979

February 14th...record lows...
albany: -10 degrees set in 1987
glens falls: -24 degrees set in 2003
poughkeepsie: -14 degrees set in 1979

February 14th...record low maximum temperatures...
albany: 4 degrees set in 1916
glens falls: 4 degrees set in 1987
poughkeepsie: 15 degrees set in 1979

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis
near term...frugis/kl/bgm
short term...frugis
long term...iaa
aviation...iaa/elh
hydrology...frugis
climate...

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