Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
921 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
high pressure will remain situated just off the New
England coast...allowing for dry conditions and mild temperatures on
Thanksgiving day. Above normal temperatures will continue into
Friday...before an approaching frontal boundary brings some showers
for Friday night. Temperatures will return to seasonable levels for
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 930 am EST...a 1050 hpa surface high is situated just east
of Nova Scotia this Thanksgiving morning. The strength of this
high pressure area is near record levels for late November...which
corresponds to about 3 Standard above normal. Our region is dominated
by strong ridging off the southeast of the Continental U.S....with broad west-SW
flow aloft extending all the way from the southwestern US up into
With the strong ridging and nearby surface high pressure...it remains
dry with no precipitation. With the broad SW flow aloft in
place...thin cirrostratus clouds have overspread much of the
region this morning. Some lower stratus clouds also have been
occurring across western New England as well thanks to persistent
southerly flow around the surface high...although the bulk of these
clouds are located within central and eastern New England.
Through the day today...a mix of sun and high clouds will occur.
It appears that any low clouds should mainly stay south/east of
our area...allowing for sun mixing with patches of high cirrus
through the day today.
Despite rather shallow mixing...temperatures look to be above normal
today. After a seasonable chilly morning...afternoon highs will
reach the upper 40s to middle 50s across the area. There won't be
much wind as well...so it will be comfortable for any outdoor
football games or Turkey frying.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
a surface front extending from the Great Lakes towards the Southern
Plains will slowly progress towards the region. Due to this
boundary running into the strong ridge in place...it will take
its time to make it eastward. The northern piece of the front
will be weakening...as the main upper level forcing for this
system in the southern stream cuts off over the intermountain
west...and the northern stream impulse lifts across southern
Ridging should remain in place long enough to keep tonight dry and
most of Friday as well. With the warm temperatures aloft...passing clouds
and southerly flow...temperatures tonight will be mild for late
November...with lows only in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Southwest
flow ahead of the front will allow for another mild day on Friday
with highs well into the 50s. A few spots in the middle Hudson Valley
could even reach 60.
The front will be passing through the area between Friday evening
and Friday night. A line of rain showers will accompany this
boundary...although the showers may wind up being scattered in
nature and not everywhere will get one. Best chance will be across
northern and western areas. The front looks to cross the area by
late Friday night...and it should be cleared through the County Warning Area by
Saturday morning. With colder air moving behind the boundary...the
rain showers could even as some snow showers across the high
terrain of the Adirondacks for late Friday night...but it/S more
likely that precipitation ends before the cold air arrives. Lows look to
be in the middle 30s to middle 40s for most areas...with the warmest
temperatures in southeastern areas where the front will take until nearly
sunrise Saturday to finally cross.
Any lingering showers should end for Sat morning...allowing for
clearing to occur from north to south. Another area of high
pressure will build into the region for the weekend as the front
settles down into the Middle Atlantic States...allowing for another
round of dry weather. However...temperatures will be noticeably cooler
behind the front...with highs on Saturday only in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. Lows on Sat night will be back in the 20s to low 30s
with a mostly clear sky for most areas.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
a dry cold front reinforcing the cold air over the region exits
early Sunday as high pressure builds in from Canada. The
temperatures Sunday are expected to be near normal...then as the
cold air builds in Monday...temperatures will be a little below
normal. Highs Sunday in the lower to middle 40s most areas but 30s
higher elevations. Highs Monday are expected to be around 40 to the
lower 40s...middle 30s higher elevations.
A strong upper system approaches Monday night and Tuesday with
increasing warm advection...low level frontogenesis and low level
jet...and moisture advection. Clouds should increase Monday night
with some isolated snow shower activity early Tuesday morning in the
eastern Catskills...Schoharie valley...western Mohawk Valley and
Temperatures warm through the day Tuesday...even with the cloud
cover and increasing coverage of showers...due to the increasing
warm advection. Highs Tuesday in the middle to upper 40s...around 40 in
higher elevations. A strong cold front is expected to track through
late Wednesday with continued scattered showers Tuesday night and
Wednesday...some snow showers in the southern Adirondacks...southern
Green Mountains...eastern Catskills and Lake George area Tuesday
night. Highs Wednesday in the upper 40s to around 50...but around 40
to lower 40s higher elevations. The front looks to be timed for
late Wednesday but the timing will likely be adjusted as we get
closer to next week and the evolution gets clearer.
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure will extend southward along the eastern Seaboard
through the taf period...12z/Friday. A cold front will be gradually
approaching from the west. This leaves the local area in between
these features. Widespread high clouds will prevail over the region
through tonight...varying between thin and opaque. Low level
moisture will very gradually increase tonight...supporting the
development of some fog and potentially a cloud deck between 1000-
1500 feet. It depends on how much southerly surface wind can
occur...which is quite uncertain. So indicating 3sm-6sm br after 09z
tonight at all taf sites...with scattered clouds of 1000-1500
feet...but if winds more calm...there could be some period of IFR
fog and broken low clouds.
Light south to calm winds through the early morning hours. A
southerly flow will develops middle morning through the afternoon and
some gusts are expected during the afternoon. South winds will
diminish to 8 knots or less this evening and remain light through the
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no precipitation will occur through Friday afternoon.
For both today and tomorrow...relative humidity values will only fall around 45
to 65 percent each afternoon...and recover to 90-100 percent each
night with dew and or frost formation.A south wind will be around
10 miles per hour today...light and variable tonight...and from a S-SW
direction around 10 miles per hour on Friday.
Some light rain showers are expected with a frontal boundary for
Friday night...but rainfall amounts will generally be less than a
quarter on an inch. Dry weather and cooler will return for the weekend.
dry weather will continue through Friday afternoon...which will
allow rivers and streams to mainly hold steady or slowly fall.
Some light rain showers are expected late Friday into Friday night
as a frontal boundary crosses the area...but rainfall amounts look
to be light...mainly less than a quarter of an inch. Dry weather
will return behind this front for the weekend...and into early
next week as well.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on