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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
159 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure will bring sunshine but cool weather today. As the
high moves east on Thursday...a southerly flow and mainly dry
weather should warm the temperatures above 50 degrees for the
first time this year.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 110 PM EDT...updated mainly for hourly temperatures and
dewpoint trends early this afternoon. Highs this afternoon still
expected to range from the middle 30s to the upper 40s...around 10
degrees below normal. Another cool day under way...good news is
there will be abundant sunshine as ridging builds in at the
surface and aloft.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
for tonight high pressure moves off the eastern Seaboard as a warm
front approaches from the Ohio Valley late tonight. Skies will go
from mainly clear this evening to increasing clouds after midnight
as warm advection strengthens across the region. Lows tonight are
expected to be in the upper teens to middle 20s.

On Thursday expect the warm front to lift northeast through our
region with a strong south to southwest flow developing in its
wake. There will be a chance of showers late in the day across the
far northwest portion of the forecast area. Variable clouds should be the
order of the day as some clearing and downsloping in the valleys
is expected in the wake of the warm front. It will be a mild and
breezy day with highs mainly in the 50s except for still some
upper 40s across far northwest portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures should not fall much Thursday night as the region
remains in the warm sector with a southerly flow continuing.
Expect lows to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

For Friday and Friday night have gone with high chance to likely
probability of precipitation as a series of cold fronts will be dropping southeast from
southern Canada with front number one moving through the forecast area
during the morning followed by a second cold front Friday night
featuring a wave of low pressure moving northeast along the cold
front. Not only is rain expected...but the rain will be changing
to snow across the northwest portion of the forecast area overnight with at
least several inches of accumulation expected by Saturday morning.
Expect highs on Friday to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s with lows
Friday night ranging from the upper 20s northwest to middle 40s
southeast.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the long term period looks to remain rather active as
northern jetstream continues to influence the region. Confidence in
these system is fairly low as there are some pretty good
disagreements between the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf). For now we leaned with
wpc in this case...leaned a little more with the GFS model.

The long range starts on Saturday...as a departing but deepening
storm will bring additional rain and snow showers to the
region...with accumulating snow likely to remain well north and west
of the capital region. It will be a chilly and increasingly windy
day with highs 40-45 in the valleys...middle to upper 30s higher
terrain. Sunshine should return by late in the day.

Saturday night the 00z GFS indicated a clipper type system working
across the region while the 00z European model (ecmwf) had a weaker one. For
now...went slight chances for showers in most places Saturday night
with 30 probability of precipitation across the Adirondacks. Lows in the 20s to around 30
would insure whatever would fall would be snow. Again...right
now...any snowfall amounts look light Saturday night.

Sunday will be quite chilly but both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS indicated a
dry start to the day. However the 00z European model (ecmwf) indicated another
clipper type system could have more precipitation knocking on our
door by day/S end. For now...kept Easter Sunday dry.

Sunday night into Monday...as high pressure moves offshore...warm
air advection will increase clouds and the threat of a least a
little precipitation. Have low probability of precipitation everywhere. Any
showers look cold enough to be snow Sunday night with lows in the
20s to around 30...but changing to rain on Monday with highs
ranging from the upper 30s northwest to around 50 southeast.
With light amounts of precipitation...little or no snow
accumulation is expected at this time.

Monday night and especially Tuesday should turn milder if the GFS
pans out as a broad southwesterly flow increases. Along with the
warmup the threat of showers will increases...especially late
Tuesday as a slow moving cold front approaches the region from the
northwest. However...the ecwmf has another clipper working through
Monday night...which drives a cold front through before any real
warmup ensues...turning cooler by Tuesday with more high pressure
and dry weather.

Again...since we have leaned more with the warmer GFS...we will
carry 30-40 probability of precipitation through this period with highs 50-55 in the Hudson
Valley...40s higher terrain.

Lows Monday night will range in the middle 30s to upper 20s...so any
showers should be in the form of snow north...a wintry mix
south...changing to all rain everywhere by Tuesday as high
temperatures are forecast to reach 50-55 in the Hudson Valley...40s
higher terrain/higher if the GFS is totally right/but lower if the
ecwmf is correct.

&&

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period...18z/Thursday.

High pressure over the region will shift south and east and off the middle
Atlantic coast Thursday morning. Aloft the ridge axis will shift eastward
and danmpen as its crests over the region Thursday.

In the meantime...a low pressure system will approach from the
west with its warm front passing to the west and north of the region
Thursday morning. An increase cloud cover will occur especially
late tonight/early Thursday morning. A few showers may accompany
the boundary with the best chances at kgfl where have vicinity
showers in taf.

Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots with some gusts at kalb and kpsf this
afternoon. However flow will be northeasterly at kgfl due to
local effects. Winds will diminish this evening and become light
and variable to calm tonight. A southerly flow will develop
becoming gusty at kalb by afternoon.

Outlook...
Thursday night: high operational impact. Breezy. Likely rain showers.
Fri: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Friday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Sat: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sat night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Sun: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sun night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...shsn.
Mon: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...shsn.

&&

Fire weather...
examining nohrsc indicates most of the snow is now gone in the
Hudson Valley from about the Mohawk River southward. Further
north...snow was patchy but still in the upper Hudson Valley as
well as the Mohawk Valley. Plenty of snow still covered most of the
mountains surrounding the Hudson Valley.

Today will be sunny...chilly and dry with low afternoon
humidities...generally in the 30-35 percent range. A northwest wind
will average 5 to 15 miles per hour with a few gusts to 20 miles per hour possible.

Tonight the wind will be light and variable. A partial recovery is
expected.

Then on Thursday...the wind will turn to the south 15 to
25 miles per hour with some higher gusts. Afternoon relative humidity values look to be around
40 percent. However...if the wind were to turn more
southwesterly...they could dip a little lower than that.

Clouds will arrive Thursday night along with some showers...which
will persist into Friday night...changing to snow across the
Adirondacks before ending Saturday. It looks as if everyone should
end up with over a quarter inch of rainfall equivalent during this
time frame.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro related problems are anticipated through at least
Wednesday.

Well above normal temperatures are possible Thursday through Friday
which would bring about widespread snow melt. A large storm system
may impact the region Friday into Saturday with moderate amounts
of rain...which would lead to significant river rises and perhaps
a few ice jams mainly north of the Mohawk River.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...11/NAS
near term...iaa/11/jpv
short term...11
long term...hwjiv
aviation...iaa
fire weather...hwjiv
hydrology...snd/11

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