Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
725 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will continue to dominate our weather into Monday
night with dry and warm conditions. Showers will overspread the
area Tuesday morning and continue into the evening hours as a low
pressure system approaches and moves across the region. Cooler air
will be ushered in behind this system for middle week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 725 PM EDT...surface high pressure is situated just east of the
region over the Gulf of Maine. As a result...skies are mainly
clear...with just a few patches of high cirrus clouds over the
region. With zonal flow aloft...occasional periods of high clouds
will move over the region overnight...but skies will generally be
clear to partly cloudy with light to calm winds. This will allow
for a seasonably cool night...with min temperatures dropping into the 30s
for most locations...with the coldest readings over the Adirondacks.

&&

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
Monday will be dry and warm with westerly flow aloft and a southerly
return flow developing with the surface high off the New England
coast. Looking at afternoon highs around 10 degrees above normal
ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

A short wave trough will move into the Great Lakes region Monday
with a surface low developing. This short wave trough and its
associated low pressure system will move eastward crossing the local
area Tuesday and Tuesday evening. There is good model agreement with
the movement and timing of the system. Showers will overspread the
area Tuesday morning as the system approaches and continue into the
evening hours. The showers will taper off overnight with the
possibility for some snow showers across the southern Adirondacks
late Tuesday night as colder air filters in behind the system.

Cooler air will be ushered in on Wednesday. The upper trough will
become negatively tilted deepening the surface off the northern New
England Wednesday. In the meantime...ridging will extended southward
out of Canada across the Great Lakes region. This will set up a
tight pressure gradient across the region resulting in brisk and
gusty northwest to north winds especially during the afternoon when
there will be better mixing. Highs are expected to be 5 to 10
degrees below and the winds will make it feel chilly.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
what starts as a relatively progressive upper pattern becomes rather
high amplitude and blocky at the end of the period. High pressure
controls our weather Wednesday through Thursday night with dry
weather. Highs Thursday are expected to be in the 50s to around 60
as cold advection gradually weakens and as axis of low level ridging
centers itself over the region. Highs around 50 in the southern
Adirondacks.

The axis of ridging shifts east Thursday night as a northern stream
upper system approaches from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead
of the system should help temperatures reach the middle to upper 60s
Friday...with some lower 60s in the southern Adirondacks. The main
upper dynamics track north of our region Friday night through
Saturday night...but scattered showers along the associated cold
front on Friday are expected. Once the cold front tracks through...
the northern stream upper dynamics and an upper level cold pool
shift over our region...with west to northwest boundary layer flow
driving cooler weather into our region.

The southern periphery of the cloud cover and scattered instability
showers should extend through much of the area Saturday and Saturday
night. Highs Saturday in the lower 60s...but middle to upper 50s
southern Adirondacks...southern Green Mountains and perhaps into the
eastern Catskills. The upper level system exits New England Saturday
night and Sunday and high amplitude upper ridging builds over the
central U.S. And Canada...but some lingering cloud cover is possible
due to the lingering upper troughing over the eastern u...
weather and flow off the Great Lakes. Some scattered to isolated
rain and snow showers are possible in the southern Adirondacks
Saturday night...with more isolated showers possible Sunday...
depending on how much lingering upper troughing remains over our
region. Highs Sunday in the lower 60s...middle to upper 50s in higher
terrain.

&&

Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the entire taf period ending
at 00z Tuesday.

Few-scattered high cirrus clouds will pass over the region tonight.
Southerly winds this evening of 4-8 kts will diminish and become
calm for kpsf/kpou...although the light breeze at around 5 kts
looks to continue for kalb/kgfl.

During the day Monday...middle and high level clouds will slowly
increase during the day...with broken ceilings of 12-15 kft in place by the
afternoon hours for kalb/kgfl. Southerly winds will be around 5-10
kts...with the highest speeds during the best mixing in the
afternoon/early evening hours.

Outlook...
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tue: high operational impact. Occasional rain showers.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wed: low operational impact.Breezy slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday night: low operational impact. Breezy. No sig weather.
Thursday-Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Fri: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
relative humidities will be low again Monday afternoon with minimums
in the 20s...

Relative humidity values are expected to recover to 60 to 80
percent tonight. Minimums values are expected to be in the 20s
Monday afternoon...with a recovery to 75 to 95 percent Monday
night.

Winds will be light with high pressure over the region overnight.
A southerly flow will develop Monday as the surface high shifts to
our east.

Showers will overspread the area Tuesday morning...then continue
into the evening hours as a low pressure system approaches and
moves across the region.

&&

Hydrology...
the Flood Warning for the Schroon river at riverbank continues.
The forecast has been consistent and it is expected to drop below
flood stage Monday afternoon after 2 PM.

Dry weather will continue to dominate our weather into Monday
night. Showers are expected to overspread the area Tuesday
morning...then continue into the evening hours as a low pressure
system approaches and moves across the region. Generally quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts of a quarter to a third of an inch are expected with
locally higher amounts near a half of an inch across the higher
terrain of southern Vermont.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...iaa
near term...frugis
short term...iaa
long term...NAS
aviation...frugis
fire weather...iaa
hydrology...iaa