Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1119 am EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
a disturbance passing to our south...will bring more clouds to our
area...and light precipitation to southern parts of the Albany
forecast area later today...including some minor snow accumulations
near the Interstate 84 corridor. High pressure will bring sunshine
but cool weather Wednesday. As the high moves east on Thursday...a
southerly flow and mainly dry weather should give the Albany area
its first 50 degree day of 2015.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1119 am...update to initialize cloud cover based on latest
satellite imagery. Also adjusted high temperatures in the Hudson
Valley up 3-5 degrees as sunshine has warmed boundary layer more
than expected as clouds have been slow to thicken in advance of
low pressure moving to our south.
Still looking for light precipitation to arrive across far south
early this afternoon. It has now reached to just south of Elmira
New York. Initially any precipitation will likely start as rain in the
valleys...and a rain snow mix over the higher terrain. Once any
precipitation starts air temperatures will likely cool several
degrees. By nightfall around an inch of snow is possible across
the southern Catskills...along I-84 and also far southern
Litchfield County...with little or none expected elsewhere.
From about Kingston northward...clouds will dim the sun but it
looks to remain dry.
A northwest wind will average 15-20 miles per hour this morning...becoming
light and northerly later in the day.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
the disturbance...which will track south of the Mason/Dixon
line...will moving off the southern New Jersey coastline this
evening...and then out to sea. Trailing deformation behind the low
center could keep precipitation going into the evening hours near
the I-84 corridor. As we loose daylight and continue to cool
further...all precipitation will turn snow by dark. There is a
potential of 1-2 inches of accumulation near the I-84...maybe up to
3 inches across the Catskills of Ulster County. We will monitor this
possible but even if it happens...amounts would be too light for
even a Snow Advisory. Still...some roads could become locally slick
this evening near I-84.
The vast majority of the region will remain dry with thinning clouds
tonight. Temperatures will dip into the 20s...with some teens across
the Adirondacks. The wind will northwest be 5-15 miles per hour.
Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region...it will be
another one of the mainly sunny days with a deep Blue Sky. It will
be chillier than normal but the sunshine will help coach
temperatures to around 40 or a little better in most valley
areas...middle or upper 30s higher terrain. We will have a northwest
wind persisting 10-20 miles per hour.
Wednesday night high pressure will crest over the region...with a
mainly clear sky. Temperatures will dip back into the lower to middle
20s Albany south...teens further north and west.
Thursday...a southerly breeze combined with early April sunshine
should finally end our under 50 degree temperature at 96 days. While
that interval itself is not even close to the longest such
record...it will be our second latest day in any given season to
officially reach 50 or higher. We are forgetting highs in the middle
50s in and around the capital region...upper 40s to lower 50s well
north of Albany...and perhaps upper 50s well south of Albany.
A few light showers might brush the western Adirondacks but these
would be very light and just rain showers.
Thursday night...a southerly breeze will increase...along with
clouds and the threat of showers out ahead of strong front pressing
in from the west. This will keep temperatures up quite a bit...with
lows generally 45-50 Albany southward...middle 30s to lower 40s north
and west of Albany.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
a springlike day on Friday ahead of (unfortunately) another cold
front that will be moving through the region. Highs on Friday will
be in the 50s to lower 60s...with some upper 40s over the
Adirondacks where the cold front moves through first. There will
also be a good chance of showers as the front moves through and
have forecast probability of precipitation of 50 percent.
Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS now forecast a significant wave to form
along the front and bring widespread precipitation to the Albany forecast
area Friday night into early Saturday. The main difference
between the models is the track of the low. European model (ecmwf) tracks the low
over Albany as it moves east-northeast...thereby keeping
conditions over the Albany forecast area rather mild and precipitation
mainly in the form of rain until nearly the end of the event. The
GFS tracks the low off the New Jersey coast with enough cooling
over the region for rain to change to snow in most areas after
midnight. With both models indicating widespread precipitation likely...
have forecast likely probability of precipitation in all areas Friday night. For precipitation
type...have blended the two solutions which results in up to a
few inches of snow accumulation across higher terrain areas...and
a dusting to an inch in lower terrain areas from the capital
district north and west...and no snow in valley areas south of
Albany. Lows Friday night will be in the 30s to lower 40s most
areas...and middle to upper 20s over the Adirondacks and higher
terrain of the southern Green Mountains.
The upper level trough and another cold front moving through
Saturday night will keep the threat of precipitation across the region
Saturday and Saturday night. Have only forecast 30 to 40 percent
probability of precipitation on Saturday...and slight or low chance probability of precipitation Saturday night
across areas west of the Hudson Valley. Highs Saturday will be in
the middle 30s to the 40s. Lows Saturday night generally in the 20s
to lwoer 30s...except the teens over the Adirondacks and southern
A small high pressure area will bring dry but colder than normal
weather to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday will
be in the 30s to middle 40s. Lows Sunday night in the 20s to lower
30s...and teens Adirondacks.
A warm front will bring the threat of light precipitation to the central
and northern part of the forecast area on Monday. Highs Monday
will be in the 40s to lower 50s...except upper 30s over the
Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
low pressure moving off the middle Atlantic coast today will likely
bring some light snow to the kpou taf site...but will be far
enough south to keep snow away from the kgfl/kalb/kpsf taf sites.
Have forecast mainly VFR conditions at the kgfl/kalb/kpsf taf
sites for the entire taf period ending at 12z Wednesday. The only
MVFR conditions will occur at kpsf due to MVFR ceilings through about
15z. There is also a chance of a flurry at kalb/kpsf this morning.
At kpou...have forecast VFR conditions through 19z...then MVFR
ceilings/visibilities between 19z and 02z as snow moves into that area.
After 02z...VFR conditions are forecast to return to kpou.
Winds will be southwest to west at the taf sites through early
this afternoon at 6 to 10 kts with gusts of 15 to 20 kts
possible. Winds will tend to become more northerly later this
afternoon and tonight as the surface low moves off the
coast...but wind speeds will decrease to 5 kts or less tonight.
Wednesday through thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night through saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance
of rain showers.
it will start out dry today and most areas will remain that way. The
only exception will be our southern areas from about Kingston south
where a fast moving east-southeast moving disturbance will bring a little light
precipitation...initially as valley rain and a snow/rain in the
mountains. As we head toward dark...precipitation will change to all
snow everywhere with a minor accumulation of 1-3 inches possible.
Relative humidity values will be highest south where the precipitation happens...but
even there before it moves this afternoon...relative humidity values will drop
about about 60 percent...otherwise look for values 35 to 50 percent
Any snow or rain ends this evening...following by partial clearing
but somewhat breezy conditions which means a full recovery will
likely not happen.
Wednesday looks mainly sunny and brisk with a northwest wind 10-15
miles per hour. Afternoon relative humidity values will generally be fairly low in the 30-40
Clear and cold Wednesday night with a normal recovery. Thursday
looks mainly dry with a south wind increasing to 10-20 miles per hour by
afternoon and relative humidity values in the low range except moderate range
across the Adirondacks.
The chance for precipitation will Thursday night into
Friday...starting out as all rain...but changing to snow in some
areas before ending by late Saturday.
no Hydro related problems are anticipated through at least
Well above normal temperatures are possible on Thursday and Friday which
would bring about widespread snow melt. A large storm system may impact
the region Friday into Saturday with moderate amounts of
rain...which would lead to significant river rises and perhaps a few
ice jams mainly north of the Mohawk River.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our