Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
101 PM EST Tuesday Jan 27 2015
low pressure well to the east off Long Island will continue to
intensify...as it tracks east of Cape Cod. This storm will bring a
crippling blizzard to Litchfield County and heavy snowfall to the
remainder of adjacent western New England. Since it has taken more
of an easterly track...snowfall over most of eastern New York will
be moderate at most. The snow will end tonight as the storm pulls
away into the Canadian Maritimes.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 100 PM EST...changes to headlines with this update include to
convert the Blizzard Warning to a Winter Storm Warning for
Litchfield County...and to cut back the ending time of the winter
storm warnings and advisories to 8 PM.
Snow continues in much of the Hudson Valley but eroding along the
southern edge in eastern Ulster...Dutchess and Litchfield
counties. Despite the break in snowfall for Litchfield...blowing
snow will continue to be a hazard today with cold temperatures from snow
already on the ground...thus the continuation of a Winter Storm
Warning. Additional bands of snow are expected to develop around
the broad middle level circulation now centered over southeast New
England and move across western New England later this afternoon.
The band of snow in the Hudson Valley is disjointed from main
surface low...but again moisture continues to wrap around the
broader circulation. There is also low level convergence due to
northwest winds in the Mohawk Valley and northerly winds down the
Hudson Valley providing additional lift.
An additional 2-4 inches of snow will fall in most of the
advisory area...including the capital region this afternoon into
early this evening. With very low temperatures and a
breeze...there will be some localized blowing snow...mainly in the
rural sections. It will be hard for crews to totally melt the
snow...and in fact...partially melted snow could become black ice.
Bottom line...travel will still be tricky at best.
Western New England zones are still expected to get the maximum
snowfall with total snowfall accumulation around 8-14 inches.
It will be very cold today along with some wind out of the north or
northeast. Figure on 10-15 miles per hour winds in the Hudson Valley with a few
higher gusts...but 10-20 miles per hour with gusts to 30 miles per hour over the higher
terrain. Over much of Litchfield County...wind gusts are still
projected to gust to 30 miles per hour at times...producing blowing snow and
reduced visibility. Even outside of Litchfield County...again
there will likely be a little blowing and drifting snow...but not
Highs today will generally range be held to the teens...except lower
20s well south of Albany.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
by this evening...the Nor'easter will have peaked in
intensity...having become fully occluded (vertically stacked) and
beginning to weaken. It will be to the east of the Cape
Cod...tracking into the Gulf of Maine.
It will slowly loose its grip on our area. Even as the synoptic snow
begins to diminish...we might experience some Mohawk Hudson
convergence (per cstar studies) as some of the mesoscale models
indicate the wind will be more northerly in the Hudson Valley versus
northwestern in the Mohawk Valley. This could bring another inch or
two of nuisance snow in the capital region. Upslope snows to the
east could add a little more...especially in Litchfield County. All
headlines will continue until 100 am.
Later overnight...all snow should taper to flurries. Even with
little if any partial clearing...temperatures look to dip to around
10 locally in the capital region...a little higher south...single
digits to around zero well north of Albany.
Wednesday...high pressure will build in from the west...allowing for
some sunshine. The flow will likely become to northwesterly and the
column too dry to support much if any lake effect snow showers.
Temperatures will climb back into the teens north...lower to middle 20s
Albany...so continued well below normal.
Wednesday night...the high will crest over the region. With a mainly
clear sky...light wind and fresh snow pack...temperatures could
really tumble...to around zero to 10 below north of Albany...single
numbers Albany southward.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
per previous excellent discussions...the long term forecast is
shaping up to be more active /accumulating snow/ and temperatures
that will average below normal as the qbo returns /quasi-biennial
The first pv anomaly quickly tracks and amplifies the trough across
the northern Mississippi River valley and Great Lakes on Thursday.
Consensus favors clouds on the increase from west to east with
increasing probabilities for light snow to develop. An accumulating
snow is expected as model quantitative precipitation forecast fields are averaging between one
quarter to one half inch. Snow ratios should average between
10-15:1 so at least an advisory level criteria should be satisfied
for many locations.
In the wake of this system...some lake effect activity may develop
for the weeks end as h850 temperatures plunge back to below -20c. Needless
to say...this too will have an impact to our temperatures resulting
in highs ranging early on ranging from the lower 30s in the valley
locations and 20s elsewhere with temperatures likely falling through
High pressure is expected to return Friday night into Saturday and
may linger into the first half of Sunday. Partially clear skies
along with diminishing winds and likely a fresh snow pack will be
result in chilly temperatures as we change the calendar from January
Trends seen in the global models suggest another snow event...this
one a bit more significant...to impact the region late Sunday and
continuing into Monday. Hints that this system will have origins a
bit further south and attempts to phase with the northern stream
over the Ohio River valley vicinity.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
snow will be rather patchy for today with generally scattered snow
showers at the taf sites except for kpsf where the snow will
linger longer. Have generally gone with p6sm -sn ovc040 with tempo
3-5sm -sn ovc025 at kalb...kgfl and kpou through 16z then straight
VFR conditions through the end of the taf period at 12z Wednesday
with generally ovc045-050 conditions. Kpsf will see the snow
linger longer and have generally gone with MVFR/IFR conds 16z then
MVFR conds through 22z then improving to ovc045 after 00z Wednesday.
Winds will be mainly from the north to northeast at 8-12 knots with
gusts up to around 20 kts. Winds will increase slightly today from
the north at 10-15 knots...with gusts of 20-30 knots expected.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely snow.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of shsn...sn.
Friday night to saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no significant Hydro problems are expected through the next five
The precipitation that does occur will be in the form of snow...with
a significant snowfall expected today...mainly across western New
Ice will continue to thicken on rivers...streams...creeks...lakes
and other bodies of water.
The Eagle bridge gage on the hoosic river continues to be hampered
by ice effects.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for ctz001-
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for
Massachusetts...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for maz001-
Vermont...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for