Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
415 PM EDT Friday Mar 27 2015
it will remain cloudy and cool through the overnight
hours tonight. With an upper level disturbance passing over the
region...some snow showers will be possible late tonight through
Saturday...especially for high terrain areas east of Albany.
Temperatures will continue to below normal through the start of the
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 415 PM EDT...a surface frontal boundary is located well off the
eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile...a sharp upper level shortwave trough
is located upstream of the region over the Great Lakes and Midwest
and is heading eastward. With a S-SW flow in place...plenty of
moisture is streaming up the coast...keeping plenty of clouds in
Although a few snow showers are possible over the Adirondacks...it
should be relatively precipitation free this evening. Although it will be
dry...the clouds look to remain in place...allowing temperatures to only
slowly fall this evening.
As the upper level trough starts to get close to the area...some
light snow showers are possible by later tonight across the
region...especially for upslope areas east of the Albany. The opportunity
for this snowfall will be aided by a surface trough setting up along
the New England coast. Although moisture will be limited...a
coating of snow is possible for the Taconics into western New
England by late tonight.
Despite the clouds...strong cold air advection out of the north
should allow temperatures to fall later tonight. Overnight lows will
mainly be in the 20s...although some teens are possible in the
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
with the upper level trough passing over the region on
Saturday...the chance for snow showers will continue through the
day...especially for upslope favored areas in eastern parts of the area.
Although just a coating of snow is expected in the capital
region...Saratoga area...and middle Hudson Valley...1 to 3 inches is
possible for the Taconics into western New England. Outside of
snow...it looks to remain cloudy...with temperatures well below normal.
Most areas will be at or below freezing for most of the day.
By the early evening hours...the threat for snow looks to be
ending...as the upper level trough starts to shift eastward...and
the flow starts to shift to the northwest and drier air will be working
into the region. Skies should start to clear out for Sat
night...and it will be a rather cold night. Overnight lows look to
be in the teens in many areas.
High pressure will be building into the day on Sunday...and
passing just to the south for Sunday evening. It will continue to
be rather chilly...although some sun will finally occur on
Sunday...after several cloudy days. Highs on Sunday will be in the
middle 30s to low 40s for valley areas...with temperatures in the upper 20s
to low 30s for the high terrain. Overnight lows on Sunday night
will be in the 20s.
A frontal boundary associated with a fast moving clipper system will
be quickly approaching the area for late Sunday night into Monday.
Some snow showers are possible across the region...which may
change to rain showers for valley areas before ending on Monday.
Moisture will be limited...and many areas may wind up staying
dry...but some scattered activity will be possible through the day with
cloudy skies in place. The best chance of seeing precipitation will be
across the Adirondacks...which will be closer to the large scale
lift moving through the area. Temperatures look to be middle 30s to middle 40s
for most areas...although with some downsloping ahead of the
surface boundary...temperatures in the middle Hudson Valley could get close to
50 by Monday afternoon.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the period starts out with a short wave trough moving through in
cyclonic flow regime in wake of a cold front passage. Will mention a
chance of snow showers for the western Adirondacks...with isolated
snow showers possible elsewhere through Monday evening. Mainly dry
conditions expected overnight as a ridge of high pressure is
forecast to quickly build in from the west.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal on Tuesday...as we
will remain in a northwest flow regime although at least some
sunshine is likely early. We will then have to watch a clipper-type
low pressure system rapidly approaching from the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region for late Tuesday into Tuesday night...which could
actually bring some accumulating snow to parts of the region. The
track of the low is in question though...as the European model (ecmwf) shows this
system tracking well south through the middle Atlantic region...while
the GFS is farther north and has quantitative precipitation forecast occurring for the southern half
of our area. With such a fast moving system and uncertainty this far
out will continue to mention chance probability of precipitation.
High pressure will build back in for Wednesday with dry conditions
returning. Temperatures will likely remain below normal with continued
A warmup then appears somewhat likely for Thursday into Friday...as
an upper level ridge is forecast to build across the eastern Continental U.S.
And a south-southwest flow increases allowing for milder air to push
northward. There will also be a threat of showers associated with
the warming as a potential warm front and/or pre-frontal trough
moves through. There are differences in timing for the main cold
front passage...as the GFS is faster bringing the front through
Friday while the European model (ecmwf) delays it until Saturday. Models do agree the
main cyclone will pass by north of the region...which should result
in a warmup at some point late next week.
Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
an upper level disturbance and secondary cold front will move
across the area through today...bringing isolated to widely
scattered -shra/-shsn and VFR/MVFR conditions. Mainly dry weather
expected for much of the overnight hours...however a developing
low pressure system off the eastern Seaboard could bring some
Atlantic moisture back into the region towards Saturday
morning...resulting in -shsn. MVFR/IFR conditions likely with this
expected -shsn activity with minor accumulations.
Winds will be north-northwest around 5-10 knots through the period.
Saturday night: low operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Monday night: slight chance of rain showers...shsn.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no fire weather concerns over the next few days. Coop observations
and nohrsc analysis continues to show a significant snowpack remains
in place at high terrain areas...in excess of a foot of snow in many
locations. Although valley areas generally have a trace to 6 inches
of snowfall...cool...cloudy and damp conditions will persist through
much of the weekend...keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum.
no Hydro related problems are anticipated through the middle of the
Recent rainfall and snow melt has allowed for some minor rises on
rivers and streams. Little precipitation is expected over the weekend...and
any precipitation that does occur will mainly be in the form of light
snowfall...which will have little to no impact on area waterways.
Rivers will likely slowly fall or hold steady through the weekend.
During the first portion of next week...only a few scattered rain
and snow showers are expected between late Sunday night and Monday
evening. Little quantitative precipitation forecast is expected with this activity...and all areas
may not see precipitation at all.
Otherwise...daytime temperatures will be above freezing...and overnight
lows will below freezing. This will allow for a slow but gradual
melt on the snowpack in place...and river ice will continue to
slowly decrease and rotate away. A rapid warmup or significant rainfall
isn/T expected through the middle of the upcoming week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our