Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1040 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
high pressure will continue to ridge in from off the middle
Atlantic coast through Monday...providing partly to mostly sunny
conditions and above normal temperatures. A cold front approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes region and Saint Lawrence valley Monday
night into Tuesday will bring scattered showers to the region.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 1040 PM EDT...the surface high along the East Coast will be in
control tonight. The satellite picture shows the skies have
cleared quickly this evening due to the ridging at the surface and
aloft. The clear/mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will
allow good radiational cooling. A light southerly breeze may begin
in the capital district well after midnight. Lows overnight will
generally be in the 40s to around 50f across the forecast area.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
for Monday expect a mainly sunny start to the day with some
increasing high clouds later in the day from northwest to
southeast ahead of a cold front which is expected to drop slowly
southeast from Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence valley late in the
day. It will be a mild day with a south to southwesterly flow with
wind gusts 15 to 25 miles per hour. Highs on Monday are expected to range
from the middle 70s to middle 80s.
Monday night into Tuesday the cold front will drop southeast from
the Saint Lawrence valley Monday evening into the central portion
of our forecast area by Tuesday morning and then off the southern New England
coast by late Tuesday. Expect scattered to numerous showers ahead
of the cold front with the greatest likelihood of showers ahead
of the cold front across the northwest portion of the forecast area. Have not
placed any thunder in the forecast as the mlmucapes are only a few
hundred j/kg at most and the showalter indices remain positive
during the period of precipitation across our forecast area. Expect lows
Monday night to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on
Tuesday in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Other than a lingering shower or two across the southeast portion
of the forecast area Tuesday evening...expect Tuesday night and Wednesday
to return to dry conditions as high pressure builds into the
northeast from the upper Great Lakes and southern Canada. Expect
lows Tuesday night to be in the middle 30s to lower 50s with highs on
Wednesday in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the period transitions from dry to showery...with well above normal
temperatures. High pressure gradually breaks down...and a warm
front lifts across our forecast area dry Friday night. The influx
of moisture will be limited...thus some southern zones may not see
any precipitation during this period. The closing in proximity of a
cold front from the northwest will...however...increase probability of precipitation...
bringing US our greatest chances for showery wetting on Sunday.
Convective available potential energy and other indices are too weak to support thunderstorm
Daytime high temperatures through the period will average from
around 70 to around 80 degrees. Lows start out Wednesday night
mostly in the 40s...then /mild up/ into the middle and upper 50s by
Friday and Saturday nights. Normal highs for Albany during this
period are in the upper 60s...with lows in the middle 40s.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
high pressure will be near the Atlantic coast tonight into
tomorrow. A cold front slowly approaches from the eastern Great
Lakes region...southeast Canada and the St Lawrence River valley Monday
night to Tuesday.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 00z/5 for
kgfl...kalb...kpsf...and kpou. The middle level cloudiness early this
evening will dissipate with the loss of the diurnal heating with
clear/mostly clear skies returning...and light to calm winds with
the surface high near the coast.
Some middle and high clouds will start to increase
tomorrow...especially in the afternoon...as the front moves closer
to the Saint Lawrence River valley. There will also be few-scattered
middle level cumulus again. The winds will increase from the S to SW
at 7-12 kts by the late morning...and then 12-16 kts in the
afternoon with some gusts in the 20-25 knots range at all the taf
Monday night-tuesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers.
Wednesday-Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of eastern New
York...western Massachusetts and northwest Connecticut from noon
until 8 PM on Monday. Localized fire weather concerns are in place
across southern Vermont Monday afternoon.
Dry weather will hold through Monday with high pressure mainly in
control. It has been more than a week since our region has
received significant rainfall. No locations have reached a quarter
of an inch of rain in the past 5 days.
Relative humidity values should recover to 80-100 percent range tonight with
some dew formation. Relative humidity values on Monday afternoon are expected to
drop to 25 to 35 percent in most areas. Some much needed rainfall
is expected Monday night into Tuesday but all areas may not
receive a quarter of an inch.
South to southwest winds at 10 miles per hour or less are expected tonight.
The winds will increase from the south to southwest Monday at 1o
to 20 miles per hour with some gusts to 25 to 30 miles per hour. The south to southwest
winds should diminish Monday night to 15 miles per hour or less.
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days
It looks mainly dry through Monday which will allow rivers and
streams to lower further...especially from Albany southward as
vegetation is beginning to bloom. A few showers may reach the
Adirondacks Monday evening with light precipitation.
The next chance of showers of fairly widespread showers will be
Monday night into Tuesday with a slow moving cold front. Most
areas should see around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our web site.
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for ctz001-013.
New York...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
Massachusetts...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for maz001-025.