Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
103 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015
the upper level storm in the Gulf of Maine will keep our
weather unsettled and unseasonably cool through early this week. A
return to more Spring like weather is expected for the middle week
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1230 am EDT...clouds remain intact mainly to the north of
i90 per the infrared/fog satellite products this early Sunday morning so
have adjusted the sky grids/forecast. In addition...dewpoints
everywhere were running a little warmer so have adjust upward both
the dewpoints and overnight lows a degree or two. Otherwise...a
tranquil night expected as it will be a chilly night again with
lows 25f to 35f.
Short term /6 am this morning through Monday night/...
as the upper level trough continues to shift slowly westward on
Sunday...clouds will continue to increase and there will be a
slight to low chance of showers in most areas during the
afternoon. The slight to low chance of showers will continue into
Sunday night...then a much better chance for showers on Monday as
the upper low gets relatively close to the region. Have forecast
35 to 50 percent probability of precipitation on Monday for most of the Hudson
Valley...eastward to the Berkshires and northwest CT. Likely probability of precipitation are
forecast from the southern Green Mountains to the Lake George
area...the Adirondacks...Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. The
low will begin to slowly move away from the region Monday night
and have forecast probability of precipitation to lower to slight chance in all areas by
late at night.
Once clouds increase to mostly cloudy on Sunday...expect sky cover
to remain cloudy to mostly cloudy through Monday...then start to
slowly decrease Monday night.
Temperatures will remain cool during the period...and will be cold
enough during the late night and early morning hours for the
showers to fall as a mix of rain and snow or just snow in higher
terrain areas. Little or no accumulation is expected. Highs Sunday
will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to
around 40. Highs Monday in the upper 40s and 50s once again. Lows
Monday night in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
the long term begins with the cut-off low still potentially
impacting our region. However...it now looks as if southern stream
energy will not phase with this feature. All of the long range
forecast models indicated the northern stream cutoff low will begin
to slowly exit on Tuesday...but there still could be some upslope
showers to the east of the Hudson Valley so continued the idea of
probability of precipitation in that area on Tuesday. There might also be a few light rain
or snow showers across the Adirondacks with a little moisture off
Then...the middle and upper level flow looks to become weakly
anticyclonic by Wednesday. The 12z GFS had a weak cold front
working across the region late Wednesday...but Canadian and
European models did not have this feature arriving until early
We will keep Wednesday and Wednesday dry with the chance for mainly
mountain showers Thursday into Friday. By Saturday...there are
indications that a ridge could start building into our region from
the Ohio Valley which would bring warmer temperatures.
Until that time...temperatures will generally average close to
normal with highs ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
higher terrain....lower 60s to upper 60s valley locations. Overnight
lows will generally be in the middle to upper 30s mountains and coldest
sheltered valleys...lower to middle 40s most other places. By next
Saturday...we go with highs around 70 in the valleys...60s higher
Precipitation looks to be below normal during the extended period as
any widely scattered showers that take place look light.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
a cutoff upper level low continues to be situated just east of New
England. As moisture rotates around this feature...bkn-ovc ceilings of 5-
7 kft will continue through the reaminder of the overnight hours for
kgfl/kalb/kpsf. Meanwhile...skies will be nearly clear at kpou with
just some passing cirrus clouds...thanks to a weak feature aloft
moving across the Middle Atlantic States. At all sites...flying
conditions look to be VFR through the morning hours with nearly calm
During the day on Sunday...daytime mixing will allow west-northwest winds to
increase to 5-10 kts. As the upper level low starts to rotate back
westward...the cool temperatures aloft will promote stratocu clouds to
develop at all sites by the late morning or early afternoon hours....with
broken-overcast ceilings for all terminals at 4-6 kft.
With the upper level low shifting closer to the region...a rain
shower or two may develop by late in the day and into Sunday
night...mainly for the northern terminals...but coverage looks to
too small to address with more than just a vcsh in the tafs at this
time. Winds look to diminish to 5 kts or less for Sunday night with
continued broken-overcast ceilings in place.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of
Monday-Monday night : moderate operational impact. Chance of
Tuesday-Wednesday night : no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
under partly cloudy skies tonight...relative humidity values will recover to between
70 and 90 percent.
There will be a further increase in cloud coverage on
Sunday...along with chance for showers from late Sunday through
Monday. This will keep relative humidities elevated with minimum
values on Sunday ranging from 35 to 45 percent...then 40 to 60
percent on Monday.
the forecast will be dominated by a persistent upper level low
which will result in cool temperatures...breezy conditions and
chances for mainly light precipitation. Any of this precipitation
will have little if any impact on our rivers and streams in our
hydrological service area /hsa/.
Rivers and streams will continue to slowly recede with the cooler
temperatures and light scattered precipitation forecasted.
For details on specific area river and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our web-