Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1238 am EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
an upper level trough will approach late tonight...and
pass across the region Wednesday...bringing scattered to numerous
snow showers. Some lake effect snow showers and squalls will remain
possible through Thursday...along with colder temperatures.
Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills will follow in the wake
of an Arctic frontal passage late Friday into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1225 am EST...snow showers associated with a low pressure
system over northern New York were moving east from the Mohawk
Valley and Schoharie valley.
Expect scattered/numerous snow showers to continue throughout the
overnight as the upper low moves closer. A slightly more
significant disturbance might enhance the activity toward
Either way look for around an inch or two of new snowfall
overnight in areas where the snow showers persist the longest with
a dusting to an inch elsewhere.
Temperatures look as if they have bottomed out for the night as
we undergo some warm air advection. Look for lows generally in the
lower to middle 20s valleys...upper teens to 20 across the higher
The wind will be light and variable overnight...becoming southerly
toward daybreak but generally below 10 miles per hour.
Short term /6 am this morning through Friday/...
Lake effect Snow Advisory in effect from noon EST Wednesday-6 PM EST
Thursday for Herkimer/Hamilton cos...
Wednesday...the aforementioned inverted trough/occluded front will
slowly move east across the region in the morning. A band of light
to moderate snow will likely precede and accompany this feature.
An additional inch will be possible in the morning for areas from
about the Hudson River west...with an additional 1-3 inches to the
east. It is possible that some locally higher amts occur across
portions of the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills...where a bit more
low level moisture may be infused into this system.
Then...after this boundary shifts east of the region by late
morning...the main upper level trough will swing east during the
afternoon. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold...with h500 temperatures
dropping to around or colder than -35 c. West winds in the wake of
the boundary will increase some low level moisture from the
lakes...and low/middle level lapse rates will become rather steep.
So...expect scattered to numerous snow showers and flurries to
develop in the afternoon...with a few embedded heavier squalls
possible...especially with some increased forcing from the passage of the
upper level feature. The snow showers/squalls may be more
persistent across upslope areas of the Berkshires...southern Vermont
and Litchfield Hills...where an additional 1-2 inches could occur
in some areas.
Also...with the remnant middle/upper level low tracking over the
region...northern areas may also become influenced by some middle
level deformation. This may enhance existing lake
enhanced/upslope snow showers/bands across northern Herkimer and
Hamilton cos in the afternoon...where 2-4 inches of snow could
occur. The lake effect Snow Advisory has been issued...and starts
noontime Wednesday to account for this initial hybrid
snowfall...before it transitions to more of a pure lake effect
event for Wednesday nt-Thu.
Maximum temperatures Thursday may actually briefly spike into the middle 30s in some
valley areas due to deep mixing in the wake of the morning
boundary...with mainly 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Winds will
become gusty at times in the afternoon from the west at 15-25
miles per hour...with some stronger gusts possible...especially with any snow
Wednesday nt-Thu...in the wake of the main upper level trough
passage...a cold northwest low level flow will dominate. It
appears that a lake effect snowband may be ongoing across northern
Herkimer and Hamilton cos Wednesday evening...before settling southward
into central/southern Herkimer Colorado...and SW Hamilton Colorado later at
night into Thursday. Total snowfall accums by late Thursday in the
advisory area should range from 4-8 inches over a 36+ hour
period...with the greatest amts across central Herkimer Colorado.
Elsewhere...some scattered snow showers will remain possible Wednesday
nt into Thursday...with the possibility of some filaments breaking off
the Main Lake effect snowband into the central/eastern Mohawk
Valley...capital region...Schoharie valley and Berkshires. In
these areas...additional coatings to 2 inches possible in some of
Thursday nt-Fri...lake effect snow should become multiband and shift to
our west as the low level flow veers Thursday nt. Then on Friday...winds
will be backing in advance of an approaching Arctic front.
So...snow showers will increase once again from northwest to southeast late Friday.
It will already be cold...with Thursday nt/Friday am mins falling into the
single digits above zero for most areas...except zero to 5 below
across the Adirondacks. Wind chill values could approach advisory
levels in portions of the Adirondacks toward daybreak Friday. Then
on Friday...expect maximum temperatures to reach the 20s for most lower
elevations...and teens across higher terrain...coldest across the
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the extended starts out with coldest air mass of the winter
season working over the region Friday night via a strong
cold front. This feature could trigger localized snow
squalls...mainly from the capital region northward.
Lows will be in the teens from the capital region southward...
single numbers most northern areas...with some below zero readings
across the Adirondacks.
The European model has been most bullish with the cold...indicating
-30c air reaching into the capital region by Saturday!
Saturday will be a windy and bitterly cold day. Any snow
showers should be confined to the higher terrain west of the Hudson Valley.
Otherwise it will be partly sunny with temperatures not rising much
(if at all) across the region. Highs will range around zero across
the Adirondack park...single numbers most other
elevated areas...10-15 Albany southward.
The wind will likely make it feel quite a bit colder...with wind chills
below zero everywhere...into the potentially dangerous zone (lower than -30)
across much of our elevated region.
Saturday night will be clear to partly cloudy and even colder. Lows
will look to be below zero most everywhere...0 to 10 below
Albany southward...10 to 20 below north and west of the capital region.
The wind will abate some...but strong enough of a breeze to produce
dangerous wind chills across most areas.
Sunday will be mostly sunny...less breezy but still very cold. High temperatures
will be similar to Saturday.
As Arctic high pressure moves east on Sunday night...a southerly flow
will allow the frigid air mass to begin to moderate Sunday night and especially
Monday. Moisture will increase as well which could lead to some snow showers
by late Monday.
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
with the slow moving upper level trough to the west of the
region...some additional light snow showers/flurries will be
possible through the remainder of the overnight hours and into the
day on Wednesday. Limited moisture in place will keep these rather
scattered in coverage...brief in duration...and light in
Based on the current radar trends and 3km hrrr guidance...will
include tempo for MVFR ceilings/visibilities due to snow showers for the
remainder of the overnight hours for all taf sites. Will not
include any IFR at this time due to limited coverage of snow
shower activity...but can/T totally rule it out for kalb or kpsf.
Light or calm winds are expected for all sites.
During the day on Wednesday...flying conditions look mainly
VFR with broken-overcast ceilings at 3500-4000 feet...although some periods of
MVFR due to somewhat lower ceilings or passing snow showers cannot be
ruled out. S-SW winds will become westerly at 5-10 kts by the middle
to late morning hours. Skies will start to clear out somewhat for
Wednesday night...although developing lake effect snow showers
west of the region will continue to keep scattered-broken clouds around.
Wednesday night through thursday: moderate operational impact.
Scattered -shsn. Breezy.
Thursday night to friday: low operational impact. Isolated -shsn.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Saturday through sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
tidal issues along the Atlantic Seaboard are resulting in higher
than normal tides up the Hudson River. It appears Poughkeepsie
will experience tidal impacts which may persist the next couple of
days. Otherwise...no other hydrological issues are expected at
With an approaching upper level trough...some snow showers and
flurries are possible through Thursday. Total liquid equivalent
will be very light...generally less than a tenth of an inch at any
one location...perhaps a bit higher across the western
With colder temperatures arriving by later in the week and the
upcoming weekend...ice cover on rivers and lakes will increase in
coverage and thickness. Temperatures should be remain completely
below freezing from Wednesday night through the rest of the week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
bitterly cold over the weekend with below zero lows expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning across east central New York and
western New England.
The last time temperatures were below zero was:
Albany ny: -9 degrees on February 24, 2015
note: the low on March 6, 2015 was zero degrees
Glens Falls ny: -15 degrees on March 6, 2015
Poughkeepsie ny: -2 degrees on March 6, 2015
Bennington vt: -11 degrees on March 6, 2015
Pittsfield ma: -4 degrees on March 7, 2015
February 13th...record low maximum temperatures...
albany: 8 degrees set in 1899
glens falls: 4 degrees set in 1979
poughkeepsie: 13 degrees set in 1979
February 14th...record lows...
albany: -10 degrees set in 1987
glens falls: -24 degrees set in 2003
poughkeepsie: -14 degrees set in 1979
February 14th...record low maximum temperatures...
albany: 4 degrees set in 1916
glens falls: 4 degrees set in 1987
poughkeepsie: 15 degrees set in 1979
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Thursday