Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
331 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure will be over New York and New England through the
weekend with tranquil weather and high temperatures rebounding to
above normal levels. Above normal temperatures and more humid
conditions will continue into the middle of next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
for today expect mostly sunny to sunny conditions once any early
morning fog Burns off. It will be warmer than Friday with highs in
the upper 70s to upper 80s with dewpoints still remaining
comfortable in the 50s. A large ridge of high pressure will be in
place across the northeast with west to southwest winds generally
5 to 15 miles per hour.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
for tonight expect clear to partly cloudy skies with patchy fog
developing once again. Lows will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will be the dominant feature across the forecast area through
the short term period. There will be a gradual increase in
temperature and humidity as we go from Sunday into Monday. At this
point have removed any mention of precipitation from the forecast
on Sunday as a large subsidence inversion will be in place which
is expected to cap any convection as indicated by model soundings.
Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with highs on Monday in the 80s to around 90. Lows Sunday night
are expected to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s with lows Monday
night in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Dewpoints will be increasing
from Sunday into Monday with dewpoints Sunday afternoon in the
upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints Monday afternoon rising into
the middle 60s in many areas.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the long term period will be characterized by above to much above
normal temperatures...and below normal precipitation...as a strong
middle/upper tropospheric ridge persists across much of eastern Continental U.S..

A weak frontal system may approach from the north sometime in the
Thursday-Friday time period. This will offer the only chance for some
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms...with the best chance
across higher elevations. Otherwise...no precipitation is forecast
through the long term portion of the forecast.

Daytime maximum temperatures should reach 85-90 in valleys for Tue-Thu...with
some temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 90s across the middle
Hudson River valley...with upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher
terrain. Heat indices are currently forecast to reach the Lower/Middle
90s for valley areas...below heat advisory criteria. Overnight min
temperatures will mainly be in the 60s for Wednesday-Thursday am...with perhaps some
upper 50s across higher terrain of the southern
Adirondacks...southern Vermont...and the eastern Catskills. Maximum temperatures may
be a bit cooler for Friday...depending on if a weak front settles near
or south of the region...potentially allowing for a marine modified
air mass to spread into the region from the northeast/east. For
now...still indicated maximum temperatures reaching the middle 80s in
valleys...and 75-80 across higher elevations...with Friday am mins
mainly in the 60s.

&&

Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will be situated directly over the region tonight.

There will be some few-scattered passing high clouds overnight. With
the mainly clear skies and calm winds...good radiational cooling
will develop between 08z-12z/Sat at kgfl/kpsf...with MVFR/IFR
conditions likely. Fog looks less likely for kpou/kalb...so will
not include in the taf at this time.

Any fog will dissipate between 11z-13z/Saturday. VFR conditions
look to continue during the day Saturday with just few-scattered cumulus
around 4-5 kft. Some high clouds will build into the region...especially
by the afternoon hours...when broken high clouds are expected at 20 kft.
S-SW winds will be light...generally around 5 kts.

High and middle level clouds will then thicken Saturday evening...as
winds become light/variable.



Outlook...
Sat night-Wed: other than some patchy early morning fog...no
operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure will be over New York and New England through the
weekend with tranquil weather and high temperatures rebounding to
above normal levels. Above normal temperatures and more humid
conditions will continue into the middle of next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 50 percent this
afternoon...recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight with heavy dew
formation and drop to 40 to 50 percent on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be west to southwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour today...light and
variable tonight...and west to southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour on Sunday.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.

No widespread rainfall is forecast to fall for at least the next
five days as a ridge of high pressure builds in.

The next chance of rain will be on Thursday when isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.

River levels will continue to run at below normal levels for
August.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...11
near term...11
short term...11
long term...kl
aviation...kl
fire weather...11
hydrology...11

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations