Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1045 am EDT sun Jul 5 2015
dry and warmer weather returns today through Monday as high
pressure builds across the region. Increasing moisture along with
the chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Monday night into
Wednesday as an upper level disturbance and cold front impact the
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1045 am EDT...all fog and low clouds have dissipated. There was some
residual haze reported at Poughkeepsie but that will mix out soon. The 12a
aly radiosonde observation indicated there should be a good deal of mixing as we head toward
the afternoon hours...which should lower dewpoints a little. There will also be
some diurnal cumulus developing...mainly over the elevated terrain.
Otherwise...it will be a much better than yesterday with high temperatures
still projected to reach the lower to middle 80s in the valleys...75-80
The ridge both at the surface and aloft will build/strengthen
across the region tonight. This will allow for the continued
Tranquility yet we will need to monitor for potential fog/mist
formation overnight. Light winds...a mainly clear sky and
dewpoints prognosticated to hold between 55-60f...additional patchy fog
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
this will be a transitioning portion of the forecast toward a more
summerlike air mass. As the upper ridge builds off the southeast
coast...the upper level impulse currently over the Tennessee
Valley will begin to advance northward. Higher Theta-E air along
with lower level moisture will advect into the region late Monday
into Monday night with an increase in cloud coverage from south to
north. Humidity levels will be on the increase as highs Monday
afternoon are expected to climb well into the 80s as those h850
temperatures climb above +15c.
The probabilities for showers increase Monday night as precipitable waters
climb further at or above 1.75 inches and even higher Theta-E
values. While cloud coverage will continue to increase and
thicken...so too will be the chance for showers. The upper level
impulse weakens a bit as the middle-upper synoptic flow becomes
increasingly confluent. It will be warm and muggy Monday night
with lows generally into the 60s with near 70f for valley
Tuesday the surface warm front lifts northward as we become well
entrenched within the warm sector. Showalters drop a bit further
leaning toward an increase in middle level instability along with
k-indices climbing into the middle 30s celsius. This all suggests
the increase probabilities for convection some of which may contain
heavy rainfall. As for severe potential...this too will need to be
monitored as sbcapes climb to between 1-2k j/kg as marginal shear
magnitude at or below 20kts. The Storm Prediction Center swody3 has placed portions of the
western Mohawk Valley and dacks into a 'marginal' risk.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a frontal boundary will be approaching from the region from the
Great Lakes for the start of the extended period. This will allow a
chance for some showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into
Wednesday across the entire area. The boundary looks to cross the
region sometime during the day on Wednesday. At this point...the
timing of the boundary and expected cloud cover in place will make
it tough for storms to be strong/severe for Tuesday night into
Wednesday...but will continue to monitor. If the front is slower and
some breaks of sun can occur...then there could be the potential for
locally stronger storms on Wednesday.
Tuesday night will be fairly muggy with lows only in the upper 60s
to near 70 with humid conditions. Highs on Wednesday look to reach
the middle 70s to middle 80s...with the warmest temperatures in southeastern
areas where the front will be crossing later in the day.
The boundary looks to continue to push south and east away from the
area...and high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes. This
should keep it fairly dry for Thursday into Friday...but will keep
slight to low chance probability of precipitation for Wednesday night through Thursday evening in
case the front slows or stalls closer to the area. Some models
suggest some waves moving along the boundary stalled to the
south...but at this point...it looks to be too far away from our
area to have an impact. Temperatures look seasonable with highs near 80 and
lows mainly in the 60s.
Temperatures will continue to warm up...with highs in the middle 80s across
much of the area for next weekend. Will have to watch the next
approaching shortwave which could bring a chance for
showers/thunderstorms to the region at some point over next
weekend...but timing on this system is still very much up in the air.
Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/...
as 1130z...still dealing with some residual fog at some of of the
taf sites...but it will dissipate completely by 13z.
Otherwise there should be no aviation concerns today as we enjoy
unrestricted visibility (once the fog lifts)...a light west wind
under 10kts and eventually few-scattered cumulus around 5000-6000 feet by
The wind will diminish this evening...and sky will be mostly clear.
It will remain VFR through the evening hours...but some more IFR
fog/mist will be possible once again...mainly for kgfl/kpsf...for
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra. \
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday
night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
moist low levels and some patchy fog tonight will keep relative humidity values
at or above 90 percent into this early Sunday morning. Then
generally dry weather will return for Sunday and Monday as high
pressure once again builds across the region. The next chance for
showers/thunderstorms arrives Monday night into Tuesday.
dry conditions are expected for Sunday and most of Monday as high
pressure builds across the region. Moisture across the southeast
Continental U.S. Will advect northward. This will signify a change of airmass
a precipitable waters climb higher along with increasing k-indices.
Thunderstorms that do develop could have the potential to produce
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our