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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
428 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

a cold front will move across eastern New York and western New
England late tonight into tomorrow with only isolated to widely
scattered showers and a reinforcing shot of cool air. High pressure
will ridge in from southeastern Canada Thursday night into Friday
with unseasonably cold air for middle September with areas to
widespread frost north and west of the capital region. High
pressure will remain in control Friday into the first part of the
weekend with fair and dry weather.


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 427 PM EDT...high pressure continues to shift
downstream...and east of the Gulf Maine. The fair weather cumulus will
dissipate with the loss of the diurnal heating. A weak cold front
is moving S/southeast from just north of the St Lawrence River valley...
and the northern Great Lakes region. A few isolated-scattered showers are
occurring over southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. This boundary will
slowly track to the S to southeast with very little moisture to work
with. A slight chance of showers was placed in the forecast over the northern
most zones between 06z-12z. Otherwise...the clouds will gradually
increase from north to south...with locations to the south of the
capital region radiating quickly with the lack of clouds and light
to calm winds.

The radiational cooling should slow with the increase of the middle
to high clouds for the southern zones towards sunrise. Lows will
generally be in the 40s with some l40s possible north in the southern
dacks/Lake George area...but also the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT.
Some patchy fog is also possible in southern Vermont and the northern
Berks...close to the CT River Valley.


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
tomorrow...the cold front moves across the entire region by the
early afternoon with a reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air.
This prompted the extensive collaboration with weather forecast offices
btv...bgm...gyx and buf for a freeze watch for parts of the region
Thursday night. Backing up...the boundary has limited low level moisture
to work with for only a slight chance of showers for parts of the
region. H850 temperatures fall to 0c to +4c north and west of the Tri
Cities by 00z/Fri...and +4c to +8c to south and east of these the low level cold advection continues in the wake of
the boundary into the night time period.

Thursday night...a freeze watch has been posted for the potential of
widespread frost for Hamilton...northern Herkimer...and northern Warren
counties. Temperatures in the middle 20s to 32f are expected in the southern
dacks. Other locations north and west of the capital
district...southern Berkshire and southeast Catskills may need frost advisories
for temperatures in the 33-36f range with areas of frost. These locations
are highlighted in the severe weather potential statement product. Outside of these areas lows in
the u30s to l40s will be common. This will be coldest air mass of
the astronomical Summer will end on sept 23rd.

Friday-Friday Canadian high pressure builds in from southeast
Ontario and southern Quebec. The 1029 hpa or so surface anticyclone will be
centered over New England by the afternoon with mostly sunny/sunny
weather due to the strong subsidence with the system. H850 temperatures will
only be in the +2c to +6c range with highs only in the 60-65f
range in the valleys...and 50s over many of the hills and mountains
another cool night is expected Friday night...but a southerly breeze
from the retreating high off the New England coast will allow for
slightly milder mins with generally u30s to u40s over most of the
forecast area in the warm advection regime.


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
mean upper troughing to remain over eastern North America through
the period...but some hints of the mean troughing lifting out toward
the 7 day time frame. Some slow moderation to the temperatures is
likely Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next strong northern stream
upper impulse. Some weak warm advection could result in intervals
of clouds Saturday and Saturday night...and maybe even an isolated
shower but not enough to carry in the forecast at this time. Better
warming Sunday with stronger warm advection ahead of the upper
dynamics and cold front.

Better coverage of showers Sunday and Sunday night associated with
the upper dynamics and cold front but keeping scattered as there are
some indications of some limited moisture. Once the front exits late
Sunday night and early Monday with some lingering isolated to
scattered showers...stronger cold advection occurs and Monday
through Wednesday should be dry...but near to below normal

So...highs Saturday in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs Sunday... the middle to upper 70s...around 70 in higher
elevations. Highs Monday...just Post the upper 60s to
lower 70s...around 60 to lower 60s higher elevations. Highs Tuesday
and Wednesday with the stronger cold advection in the lower to middle
60s...middle to upper 50s higher elevations.


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure will continue to build in from the west today and
tonight. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday.

Despite the frontal passage on Thursday...mainly VFR conditions have
been forecast for the kgfl/kalb/kpou/kpsf taf sites through the taf
period ending at 18z Thursday. Significant moisture is lacking along
the cold front as it moves across the taf sites...and have not
forecast any precipitation or conditions below VFR as it moves through.
However...MVFR/IFR conditions possible late tonight/early Thursday
morning due to fog/stratus. Clouds associated with the cold front
will move into the region from north to south later tonight into
Thursday. As a result...the threat for widespread IFR/MVFR fog is
less than it was for Wednesday morning. At kgfl the middle level cloud
deck will likely begin to move in shortly after midnight...which
would greatly inhibit fog formation there. At kalb the clouds will
begin to move in around 10z...but significant fog at kalb is not
expected. Kpsf/kpou have the best chance of getting MVFR/IFR fog
since clouds will not arrive until around or shortly after sunrise
on Thursday.

Winds will become westerly at 8 kts or less today. Light and
variable or calm tonight...then west to north at 5 to 10 kts on


Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.


Fire weather...
a cold front will move across eastern New York and western New
England late tonight into tomorrow with only isolated to widely
scattered showers and a reinforcing shot of cold air. High pressure
will ridge in from southeastern Canada Thursday night into Friday
with unseasonably cold air for middle September with areas to
widespread frost...north and west of the capital region.

The relative humidity values will increase to 70 to 100 percent tonight...then
lower to 35 to 55 percent Thursday afternoon. The relative humidity values will
increase to 90 to 100 percent Friday morning with frost and dew formation.

The winds will be light to calm tonight...and then increase from
the northwest to north at 5 to 15 miles per hour tomorrow...and the become
light to calm Thursday night.

The next chance for showers arrives for the latter half of the weekend.


no widespread Hydro problems are expected for the next 5 days
ending on Monday.

A cold front with limited moisture to work with...will produce a few
scattered hundredths over the Hydro service area late tonight into
tomorrow. High pressure will produce dry weather late Thursday
into Saturday.

A slow moving cold front may bring a chance of showers Sunday into
Monday with variable amounts of rainfall from the medium range guidance
at this time.

Rivers and streams will likely recede slightly over the next 5
days with limited rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.


cold night expected for this Thursday night into Friday morning.

Here are some record low temperatures for September 19th...

Albany ny: 32 degrees in 1959 (records date back to 1874)
current forecast: 39

Glens Falls ny: 31 degrees in 1995 (records date back to 1949)
current forecast: 35

Poughkeepsie ny: 33 degrees in 1990 (records date back to 1949...
however data is missing from January 1993 - July 2000)
current forecast: 44


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...freeze watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
for nyz032-033-042.


near term...wasula
short term...wasula
long term...NAS
fire weather...bgm/wasula
climate...iaa/aly staff

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