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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
449 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Synopsis...
low pressure tracking to the south of the region will exit the
area early this evening...bringing an end to any leftover showers.
Improving conditions are expected tonight...with dry and warmer
weather to return for Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds
across the region.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 430 PM EDT...steady rainfall has exited the region. Isolated
to scattered showers remain due to a lagging upper level trough.
This trough will clear out of the region this evening and all
showers will come to an end. Skies have become partly sunny across
much of the Albany forecast area as of 430 PM...but widespread
cloudiness persists over the capital district and areas to the
east and northeast. Eventually cloudiness will decrease in all
areas tonight...becoming partly cloudy to mainly clear after
midnight. Lows will be mainly in the 50s...with some upper 40s
over higher terrain areas.

&&

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
for Sunday into Monday...high pressure will be building both at
the surface and aloft through the short term period per the NCEP
model suite and ensemble consensus. This will result in dry and
increasingly warmer temperatures /and humidity/ as h850 temperatures
moderate into the middle teens. This points toward high temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to middle 80s on Sunday and well into
the 80s most places on Monday under a good deal of early July
sunshine. Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

For Monday night...a upper level low and associated weak surface
low will be lifting northeastward into the region from the Middle
Atlantic States. Have forecast clouds to increase Monday night...
with a slight chance of showers after midnight. It will become
very humid Monday night and temperatures will only drop to lows in the
upper 50s and 60s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday...
temperatures and precipitation will generally average normal for the period.

The extended starts with high pressure moving offshore...
creating a southerly flow...and allowing a warm front to approach the
region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by Tuesday afternoon
as it turns more humid.

The models have come into better agreement regarding the passage of the next
cold front. It looks to comes through on Wednesday...so we will keep chances
of showers and thunderstorms in all day...highest in the afternoon.
With a pretty good wind field aloft...we will have watch to see how much
instability comes into play...as to whether or not thunderstorms could become
strong to locally severe. If the front were to move a little fast
(as the 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) would imply) there would less instability to work with.
If the slightly slower solution of the 12z Canadian model works out...there would
more opportunity for instability/stronger thunderstorms.

Either way...all models indicate the front will gradually clear our region by
Thursday...allowing for high pressure and lower humidity to work in for Thursday
through Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures.

By Sunday...both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS indicated another trough to begin carving out
across the northeast Continental U.S.. the GFS was a little flatter and north with this idea
while the European model (ecmwf) had a much deeper trough anchored further west with a giant upper air
low close to James Bay. For now...we will go with the idea another cold
front/short wave begins to slowly approach our region Sunday with an increase
in humidity and at least the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures will generally range from lower to middle 80s each day in the
valleys...75 to 80 higher terrain. Overnight lows will range from the middle or
upper 50s in outlying areas and higher terrain...lower to middle 60s in the valleys
from Albany southward.

&&

Aviation /21z Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 1745z...the shield of rain was beginning to move away from
the taf sites. However...residual low level will likely allow MVFR
ceilings/drizzle and fog(perhaps even brief IFR periods) to persist a
little while longer at all the taf sites.

We are seeing clearing well to the west of the taf sites. This
clearing will likely reach the tafs before end of the day.

The clearing at night...along with little or no wind and residual
wet ground...should yield to some fog overnight. One mitigating
factor fog formation will be the passage of a weak cold front
still slated to work across the region sometime this
evening through midnight...perhaps stirring the wind up a little.

For now...went IFR mist/ceilings at kpsf and kgfl from 08z-12z...and
only MVFR mist at kalb/kpou. We will monitor conditions through
the afternoon and evening hours.

After we loose the fog Sunday (after 12z)...it looks like a much
better day for flying as we return to full VFR conditions...with
few-scattered cumulus developing with light to northwest wind around 5kts.
Visibility will be unrestricted.

Outlook...

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
moist low levels and some patchy fog tonight will keep relative humidity values
at or above 90 percent. Then generally dry weather will return for
Sunday and Monday as high pressure once again builds across the
region.

&&

Hydrology...
although radar estimates indicate rainfall amounts up to a half
inch or a little more fell in some areas today...the vast majority
of the region had less than a quarter of an inch...with little or
no rainfall over the Adirondacks. This rainfall had little if any
impact on area streams and rivers.

Dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...gjm
near term...gjm
short term...bgm
long term...hwjiv
aviation...hwjiv
fire weather...gjm/bgm
hydrology...gjm/bgm

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