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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
621 am EST sun Nov 29 2015

high pressure and a seasonably cold air mass will move into the
region for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A
storm system tracking east from the western Great Lakes will bring
unsettled weather to our region during the middle week period.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
clouds that prevented warming yesterday still slowly eroding...
especially around the Hudson Valley and CT River Valley including
parts of southern Vermont...the Berkshires and northwest CT. Satellite trends
show continued slow erosion of the cloud cover and by daybreak
much of the area outside of terrain should see a mix of clouds and
sun. Then after sunrise...more rapid erosion of cloud cover. The
northern edge of high clouds over the eastern Catskills...middle
Hudson Valley and northwest CT is also slowly shifting south.

Clouds anchored to terrain could take the better part of the
morning to erode with the light winds and with the additional
moisture trapped under an inversion seen as more scattered to
broken cloud cover around the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada.
As reinforcing cold shot arrives later today along with
strengthening low level ridging and subsidence out of
Canada...should accelerate the mixing out of the cloud layer.

So...with a trend in increasing sunshine through the day and light
but steady winds...highs today in the 40s...some middle to upper 30s
southern Adirondacks.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
high pressure builds into the region from Canada with relatively
strong subsidence supporting a mostly clear sky and light to calm
winds. Lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s.

High pressure builds offshore by Monday and Monday night with
gradual warm advection in our region. Low level winds still look
to be light but shifting to more south and southeast. Highs
Monday in the lower to middle 40s...but middle to upper 30s in the
southern Adirondacks.

High clouds will increase late Monday afternoon and evening...but
with light winds...temperatures should drop quickly into the middle
20s to near 30 by midnight...around 20 southern Adirondacks.
Clouds thicken and some spotty precipitation could approach far
western areas by daybreak. Temperatures could rise a degree or two
toward daybreak as well with warm advection increasing.
Still...forecasted temperature profiles suggest any spotty light
precipitation that could fall Tuesday morning could start as
freezing rain and/or sleet...but again very spotty...before
temperatures warm above freezing by middle morning and steadier rain
begins midday into Tuesday afternoon.

Highs Tuesday in the 40s...around 40 in the southern Adirondacks
and protected valleys where colder air could get trapped. Rain
continues Tuesday night...but warm advection strengthens and
temperatures should stay above freezing during the rain.


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
although it will not be raining the entire day...numerous showers
will be around on Wednesday as a frontal boundary and weak wave of
low pressure move eastward across the region. The upper low
associated with the system will be displaced back to the west across
the Great Lakes through much of the thermal profiles will
be warm enough for all rain to continue with mild temperatures.

The upper low will start to become more progressive as it traverses
the region Wednesday night. As colder air aloft moves in Wednesday
night...mainly scattered rain showers will change to snow showers.
Some minor accumulations of an inch or so will be possible over the
higher terrain /especially the western Adirondacks/...otherwise
little if any accumulation is expected elsewhere.

Cooler and breezy conditions in store for a northwest
flow regime sets up across the region. Some upslope/lake enhanced
snow showers will be possible across the higher terrain during the
first half of the day. Temperatures will cool back to near normal
for early December. Dry conditions expected Thursday a
ridge moves across the region. A moisture-starved short wave trough
passing through on Friday may result in isolated snow showers over
the western Adirondacks. Otherwise dry conditions expected across
the rest of the area into Saturday with slightly above normal


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
low stratus clouds in MVFR range still lingering from kgfl-kalb-
kpsf early this morning...trapped beneath an inversion. Gradual
clearing evident in the satellite imagery on the edge of the
stratus deck. Expecting the ceilings to gradually scour out after
sunrise once better mixing develops. All sites should have VFR
conditions by 15z. Dry conditions with sunshine expected for the
rest of the day.

Winds will be north-northwest around 4-8 kts through the period
ending 12z Monday.


Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain.
Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Thursday to friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure and a seasonably cold air mass will move into the
region for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A
storm system tracking east from the western Great Lakes will bring
unsettled weather to our region during the middle week period.

Relative humidity values this afternoon and Monday afternoon in the 35 to 50
percent range with nighttime relative humidity values 80 to 100 percent.
Northwest to northeast winds at 15 miles per hour or less today will diminish
to variable at less than 15 miles per hour tonight...and shift to south and
southeast at less than 15 miles per hour Monday.

We will end our fire weather weather forecast
(fwf) and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon issuance on
Monday November 30th.


no hydrologic problems are expected for the next 5 days.

Dry weather is expected tonight through Monday night with the next
storm system expected to impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday.
As of this time quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are generally expected to be between
half an inch and an inch. Rivers should remain below action stage
with these expected rainfall amounts.

Dry weather is then expected during the remainder of the week.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...NAS
short term...NAS
long term...jpv
fire weather...NAS

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