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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
500 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Synopsis...
hot and humid weather is expected through Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the region.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today as a upper
level disturbance moves southeast across New England. There is a
better chance for thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front moves
through. The warmest day of the week will be Wednesday when highs
in valley areas will reach the lower 90s.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 430 am...isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms had formed on
the western edge of the vorticity maximum moving southeastward through New
England. These showers were across northern Washington...northern
Warren and east central Hamilton counties...and they will likely
continue to affect areas north and east of Albany through middle
morning. Have forecast probability of precipitation of 20 to 40 percent in these areas
as these showers move southeast. Later today more showers/thunderstorms
may develop across areas north and east of Albany during maximum
heating time...and have forecast probability of precipitation of 20 to 30 percent
for areas northeast of Albany.

The rest of the forecast area will be dry today with mostly sunny
skies. Highs will be in the 80s to around 90.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
a ridge at the surface and aloft will provide for dry weather
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A cold front will move
across the region on Thursday with a good chance for thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Heat and humidity will be the main issue through Thursday. Lows
tonight will be in the 60s...with some upper 50s aross higher
terrain areas. Highs Wednesday (the warmest day of the week) will
generally be in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints on Wednesday
will be high...but not extreme (generally in the 60s). As a
result...believe heat index vallues will get to the middle or upper
90s in valley areas Wednesday afternoon...but will likely remain
below the 100 degree threshold needed for a heat advisory. Lows
Wednesday night will be 60 to 70. Highs Thursday 80 to 90.
Dewpoints ahead of the cold front could climb to around or
slightly above 70 late Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...

The period starts out the first half of Thursday night with a cold
front continuing to push eastward across the region. The front
should be east of the area by around midnight...so will carry chance
probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday evening for
areas south and east of Albany.

A slightly cooler and less humid air mass will be positioned over
the region for Friday into Friday night...as surface high pressure
ridges in from the west. Temperatures will still be above
normal...but not as much as recent days.

With a predominant zonal flow aloft expected to take hold for the
rest of the long term period...a weak frontal boundary may impact
the region on Saturday with low chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly north and west of the capital district. A quiet
period is expected for Sunday...with another fast moving disturbance
possibly approaching on Monday. Generally low confidence forecast
from Sunday through early next week due to the zonal flow pattern.

Temperatures continue to be at least slightly above normal through
Monday...although some sources of guidance are indicating a possible
long wave trough setting up across the eastern Continental U.S. Towards the
middle of next week. This may result in a break in the heat. However
this is far from certain as some guidance continues to show a zonal
flow aloft with less troughiness.

&&

Aviation /09z Tuesday through Saturday/...
mainly clear skies and light winds into the early morning hours
will lead to radiation fog formation once again. Best chances for
IFR/LIFR will be at kgfl/kpsf...with kpou/kalb likely only
experiencing MVFR.

Any fog should dissipate by 13z...with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter. Scattered cumulus around 5000 feet expected much of the day. There
is a slight chance of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain at kgfl...but too small of a
probability to even mention a vcsh in the taf. Less than 10
percent chance for convection at kalb/kpsf/kpou today with a
decent middle level cap developing.

Winds will be light and variable...becoming northwest around 5 kts
by middle to late morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night to saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
hot and humid weather is expected through Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the region.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today as a upper
level disturbance moves southeast across New England. There is a
better chance for thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front moves
through. The warmest day of the week will be Wednesday when highs
in valley areas will reach the lower 90s.

Relative humidity will fall to between 40 and 55 percent this
afternoon...then increase to 90 to 100 percent tonight.

Light and variable winds will become west or northwest this
afternoon at 5-10 miles per hour. Winds will become light and variable again
on tonight.

&&

Hydrology...
no larger river flooding is forecast through the next 5 days.
Localized heavy rain from thunderstorms today and Thursday may
cause ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage flooding of
low lying areas.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Climate...
conditions will become hot and humid this week with highs forecast to be
in the 90s up the Hudson River valley Tuesday...Wednesday and Thursday.

Here are the record high temperatures and year of occurrence for
these dates...

July 28th...
Albany ny: 99 degrees 1929
glens falls: 96 degrees 1949
Poughkeepsie ny: 96 degrees 1949

July 29th...
Albany ny: 97 degrees 1894
glens falls: 96 degrees 1959
Poughkeepsie ny: 95 degrees 1949

July 30th...
Albany ny: 100 degrees 1933
glens falls: 94 degrees 1949
Poughkeepsie ny: 96 degrees 1949

Note the daily records date back to 1874 at Albany New York and to 1949
for both Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie New York.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...gjm
near term...gjm
short term...gjm
long term...jpv
aviation...jpv
fire weather...hwjiv/gjm
hydrology...snd/gjm
climate...

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