Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
123 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
a storm system and associated frontal boundary will move across
the region tonight. A wintry mix of precipitation will fall over
the region early tonight...then taper off later tonight. After the
frontal boundary moves through the region early on Wednesday...a
wave of low pressure is expected to move along it...bringing more
unsettled weather to the southern portion of the region Wednesday
night and Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1245 am EST...steady precipitation has tapered off across the
area...however spotty freezing drizzle or light sleet still
occurring so will allow the Winter Weather Advisory to continue to
account for this. Also Road conditions remain slippery with the
snow/sleet/freezing rain from earlier. Temperatures still below
freezing across much of the area...although there are some pockets
of above freezing temperatures in southern portions of the area. Temperatures
will continue to slowly rise overnight into this morning.
Will reassess if the Winter Weather Advisory can be cancelled
before the 600 am expiration time for some area with the next
Short term /6 am this morning through Friday/...
the precipitation is expected to taper off early Wednesday with
the cold front sliding south and east of the forecast area. Expect clouds
mixed with some sun highs Wednesday are expected to be in the 3os
to lower 40s...depending on how much mixing we get with the
winds...how much sun...and if the cold frozen snow covered ground
could limit the surface warming.
A wave of low pressure is expected to form along the cold front
south and east of our region and bring snow back across our
southern 6 counties consisting of Greene...Columbia...Berkshire...
Ulster...Dutchess and Litchfield late Wednesday into Thursday.
There is still considerable uncertainty as to how far north any
areas of snow can get...so including chances to likely probability of precipitation across
the aforementioned areas. There could be 2 to 4 inches of snow in
southern areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This low
pressure system should exit Thursday night with dry and cold
weather expected Thursday night through Friday. Lows Wednesday
night are expected to be in the zero to 20 above range with highs
on Thursday in the middle teens to middle 20s. Lows Thursday night are
expected to be in the 10 below zero to 5 above zero range with
highs on Friday in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
mainly quiet weather with moderating temperatures is expected
through much of the long term period.
Temperatures will once again be cold for Friday night into
Saturday morning with lows in the single digits. With a storm
system approaching from the Great Lakes region...there will be a
west-SW flow at low and middle levels. This should allow temperatures to
moderate for Saturday...with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s
over the region. Some snow showers and flurries will be possible
between late Friday night and Saturday night...but mainly for
western and northern parts of the region. Even areas that see snow
showers...little accumulation is expected...as moisture will be
lacking with this northern stream clipper system.
Behind this system...temperatures won't be too much cooler aloft...so temperatures
won't change much. Lows Sat night look to be in the middle teens to low
20s...and highs on Sunday will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Lows on
Sun night look to be in the teens.
The flow aloft will start to become a bit more zonal for early next
week...which should allow temperatures to continue to moderate back towards
normal levels. Another moisture starved clipper system could
approach for Monday...otherwise...it looks fairly dry...with no
major systems impacting the region through the start of the week.
Highs for Monday/Tuesday look to be in the 30s...with teens and 20s at
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
main precipitation shield has moved off well to our east. However
we have lost ice in the clouds and are getting freezing drizzle
or drizzle at times across the area depending on the surface
temperatures. Temperatures will gradually rise this morning as
the low pressure system approaches and moves across the region.
The system's frontal boundary will move across the region around
12z/Wednesday, widespread MVFR conditions will persist with IFR
possible. An improvement to VFR is expected by late this morning.
Higher levels clouds will move back in across the area as the
lower and middle level clouds break this afternoon. Middle and level
cloud cover will return as a wave of low pressure moves along the
cold front boundary to our south. The precipitation shield associated
with this low is expected to only impact kpou with some light snow
mainly after 06z/Thursday.
Southerly winds will remain strongest at kalb and kpsf with gusts this
morning. Wind will shift to the west with passage of the cold front
this morning and will become gusty into the teens and 20s with the
strongest winds at kalb and kpsf. Winds will decrease and lose their
gusts this evening.
Thu: low operational impact. Slight chance snow.
Thursday night-Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sat: low operational impact. Slight chance shsn.
Sat night-Sun: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through the next 5
days. However...another storm system will impact the region
through tonight...with the possibility of snow...mixed
precipitation and/or rain.
A brief warmup may occur on Wednesday...but the short timing and
magnitude of the warmth will likely not be enough to cause any Hydro
concerns. Another cold air mass will build in late Wednesday into
Thursday...with temperatures falling back below freezing.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for
Massachusetts...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for
Vermont...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST early this morning for