Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1249 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
a strong upper level ridge will allow for above normal
temperatures and muggy conditions through much of the week. It looks
to be rain free most of the time...although a shower or thunderstorm
cannot be totally ruled out on Thursday...as a cold front approaches
the area from the north.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1240 am EDT...some patchy low clouds continue across
portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont...with some
high/middle level clouds across much of the upper Hudson River
valley...the Mohawk Valley and capital region. These lower clouds
are expected to gradually decrease in areal coverage from north to S
toward daybreak...while the higher clouds move S/east of the region.
Thus far...there has been a bit of a breeze persisting...preventing
much fog from forming. However...we do expect winds to trend calm
before daybreak...which in combination with mostly clear skies and
a moist boundary layer...should allow patchy fog to form around
Overnight lows will fall into the low to middle 60s for most
spots...although some middle/upper 50s will be possible across the
higher elevations...especially across the southern Adirondacks...SW Vermont
and northwest Massachusetts.
Short term /6 am this morning through Wednesday night/...
guidance indicates a backdoor front will try and approach from
the northeast Tuesday...however the strengthening ridge will
prevent its progress and cause it to move back as a warm front. It
will be very warm/hot with highs in 80s the exception will be for
elevations above 2000 feet. Conditions will be favorable for
radiational fog Tuesday night especially in the valleys.
The ridge will begin to flatten some across our region as a short
wave trough near Hudson Bay begins to drop southeastward and a
backdoor front begins to approaches from the north. The ridge
axis will amplify to our west. Wednesday is anticipated to be a
couple degrees warmer than Tuesday with highs in the 80s to lower
90s in middle Hudson Valley. Dew points in the 60s will make for
Clouds will be in the increase Wednesday night which will make for
a milder/muggy night. The threat for storms is expected to hold
off until after sunrise Thursday as the backdoor front approaches.
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
the extended forecast opens with a cold front or back door cold
front moving across upstate New York and New England. This front will
give the forecast area its best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Thursday into Thursday night. The timing of the boundary and the amounts of
instability are still uncertain for a more widespread thunderstorm
threat. A drier and slightly cooler air mass will briefly build
late Thursday into Friday...as surface high pressure builds in from southeast Quebec
and northern New England. The GFS/ECMWF/wpc/superblend guidance has
trended temperatures slightly cooler as the we close the work week...but
still temperatures look above normal for early sept.
Highs on Thursday will be in the middle and u80s in the valleys...and u70s
to l70s over the higher terrain. H850 temperatures fall to +12c to +14c by
12z/Friday with the cold advection in the wake of the front. Lows will
be in the u50s to l60s over the higher terrain..and lower to m60s in
the valley locations. The slightly cooler temperatures continue on Friday
with surface dewpoints in the m50s to l60s...as highs will be 80-85f range
in the valley areas...and m70s to around 80f over the mtns,.
Saturday into Monday...a quiet stretch of weather with above normal
temperatures/hot weather is expected...as the middle and upper level ridge
builds in over the northeast and the Atlantic Seaboard. The surface high
initially is over New York and New England Saturday...then drifts over the
middle Atlantic region on Sunday...and then east of the Atlantic coast.
The subsidence from the ridge will yield partly to mostly sunny
conditions and dry weather. Humidity levels will start to increase late
in the weekend into next week.
H850 temperatures start around +13c to +15c on Saturday...with highs
slightly warmer than Friday with u70s to m80s over the forecast area.
Some radiational cooling with the surface high Sat night will still
yield lows in the m50s to l60s over the forecast area. Sunday into
Monday...highs in the u80s to l90s will be possible in the
valleys...and u70s to m80s over the hills/mtns...as h850 temperatures trend
1 to 2 Standard deviations above normal according to the latest gefs.
Overall...temperatures will be above normal Thursday through Monday
with precipitation below normal.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites through the
end of the taf period ending at 06z Wednesday. The exception will
be some MVFR visibilities and ceilings possible with late night fog at kgfl and
kpsf. Kalb and kpou are expected to remain VFR. Any fog should
lift rather quickly after daybreak allowing for mostly sunny
skies on Tuesday. Few-scattered diurnal cumulus may develop over the high
terrain during the afternoon...otherwise it will remain clear. A light
S-SW wind will develop around 5 kts by late Tuesday morning and
continue through the early evening hours. There may some MVFR fog
again at kgfl and kpsf towards midnight.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. Patchy fog.
Wed: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. Patchy fog.
Thu: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night-Sat: no operational impact. No sig weather.
above normal temperatures this week as high pressure dominates.
Dry weather is expected except for the chance for some storms
Thursday as a weakening cold front moves southward across the region.
Minimum relative humidity values will be in the 40s both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Relative humidity values will recovery to 90
to 100 at night.
no hydrologic problems are expected the next several days.
Expecting dry and hot weather as ridging builds in at the surface
and aloft across the region. However there is a chance for some
storms Thursday as a weakening backdoor cold front moves
southward across the region.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
the longest heat in Albany has been 10 days long and it occurred
August 27 through September 5 in 1953. The record high temperatures
for August 29, 30 and 31 and September 1, 2 and 3 were all set
during this heat and stand today. Daily temperature records Albany
date back to 1874.
Here are some record high temperatures for this week...
albany: 93 degrees 1953
glens falls: 92 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 100 degrees 1953
albany: 96 degrees 1953
glens falls: 91 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 97 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 101 degrees 1953
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 95 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953
albany: 97 degrees 1929
glens falls: 92 degrees 1973
poughkeepsie: 96 degrees 1973
Records date back to 1949 for Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie...however
note that data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 for