Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1045 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure will build across the region from the Great
Lakes tonight through Friday bringing dry weather and comfortable
temperatures and humidity to the region. A weak upper-level
disturbance could bring an afternoon shower or thunderstorm on
Saturday for areas mainly south and west of the capital region.
Dry weather will return for Sunday and Monday as high pressure
once again builds across the region.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 1045 PM EDT...high pressure centered across the Great Lakes
region continues to build eastward tonight. As the high continues
to shift closer to our region...clouds will continue to gradually
dissipate overnight...becoming mostly sunny/mostly clear after
midnight. Some thicker high level clouds in place for areas south
and east of Albany will dissipate late tonight.

Tonight will feature good radiational cooling conditions...allowing
for a cool night. Low temperatures across the region tonight will
range from the middle 40s to middle 50s.

Winds will trend towards calm overnight along with clear skies
expected. Patchy fog will be possible especially favored sheltered
valleys and locations near bodies of water.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
mainly dry weather for the Holiday weekend with a slight chance
of a popup shower/perhaps a thunderstorm on Independence
day/Saturday.

The aforementioned high pressure will continue to build across the
region during the day Friday resulting in another excellent
weather day featuring dry conditions and highs generally ranging
from the low 70s to near 80...with the highest elevations in the
upper 60s and a few locations in the middle Hudson Valley reaching
into the low 80s. Winds will be light and variable around 5 miles per hour.

This area of high pressure will slide to the east of the region
Friday night and into Saturday...as an upper-level trough and weak
piece of energy impact the region for Independence day. Any
forcing with this upper-level disturbance looks marginal at best
and have only gone with slight chance probability of precipitation for a stray
shower/perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening
hours. This upper-level disturbance will bring a slight increase
in cloud cover...with most areas partly cloudy but still seeing a
significant amount of sunshine. Highs Saturday will range from
the middle 70s to low 80s. While there is a slight chance for some
wet weather on Independence day...it appears most likely that it
will be dry...although again cannot rule out a stray shower or
thunderstorm especially south and west of the capital region.

Any ongoing shower/thunderstorm activity should be over in time
for fireworks Saturday night. Light winds and temperatures falling
into the 60s are expected with eventual lows Saturday night
ranging from the middle to upper 50s across the region.

Another area of high pressure will build across the region for
Sunday resulting in dry weather and high temperatures in the middle
70s to low 80s.

&&

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the period starts out Sunday night with a ridge of high pressure at
the surface and aloft building into the region. This will result in
mainly clear skies and light winds. Models indicating the ridge will
remain in place through Monday providing sunny skies and seasonably
warm temperatures. The European model (ecmwf) is showing an upper low developing in
the center of the ridge across the central Appalachians...heading
towards our region Monday night. However this solution does not
agree with the GFS/CMC which both keep the strong ridge in place. So
will continue to mention dry conditions Monday night.

The ridge then starts to break down somewhat with upper level
heights lowering slightly for Tuesday. Will mention only slight
chance probability of precipitation at this time due to lack of any prominent forcing
mechanism. Humidity levels will start to rise as well...with
dewpoints climbing into the 60s. Combined with temperatures in the 80s it
will start to feel muggy after several days of low humidity for
early July.

There appears to be a somewhat better chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday...as an upper level disturbance and
associated surface cold front possibly move through...although this
is not consistent among the guidance. The strength of the upper
ridge will be an important factor in determining the timing/strength
of the next potential chance for more widespread convection
arriving. Will mention chance probability of precipitation for Thursday...as this is when it
looks like the ridge will completely break down...allowing for a
better potential for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to
be near normal from middle to late next week.

&&

Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure building in from the west will provide clearing
skies and light winds overnight. Despite a relatively dry air mass
in place...some radiational fog formation will be possible in some
spots. Confidence for fog is low...so will only mention MVFR visibilities
for now at kgfl/kpsf from 08z-11z...with patchy fog near kalb due
to possible fog forming along the Mohawk River. Subsequent taf
issuance will monitor for possible fog.

Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail with only a few fair
weather cumulus around for Friday.

Winds will be variable around 5 kts or less through Friday.

Outlook...

Friday to Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Independence day: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Saturday night to Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
mainly dry weather through Monday...

Except for a slight chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder Saturday afternoon and evening...dry weather is expected
through Monday with high pressure across the region. There will
be the usual nearly full recovery each of the next several nights
with light or calm winds...yielding to the formation of dew. Relative humidity
values will drop each afternoon into the 30s in the valleys/40s
higher terrain. Sunshine will prevail although will be mixed
with a good deal of afternoon cloudiness on Saturday...especially
south of Albany.

The wind will remain light mainly from a north to northwest
direction under 10 miles per hour during the daylight hours.

&&

Hydrology...
mainly dry conditions are expected through at least Monday with a
slight chance of widely scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening primarily south and
west of the capital region. Basin-averaged rainfall amounts on
Saturday are expected to be a quarter of an inch or less. River
levels are expected to gradually fall through the weekend and into
early next week with the mainly dry conditions.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...irl
near term...irl/jpv
short term...irl
long term...jpv
aviation...jpv
fire weather...hwjiv/irl
hydrology...irl

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations