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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1030 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016

Synopsis...
a strong storm passing off the eastern Seaboard will bring some
light snow to the region through tonight. As an upper level
disturbance slowly moves across the region...there will be the
continued chance for light snow showers for Tuesday through
Thursday...along with plenty of clouds and seasonable
temperatures. Below normal temperatures are expected to move into
the region by late in the week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 1030 PM EST...a band of moderate snow was working
into the capital region and a Special Weather Statement
was issued regarding it.

It looks as if it should move fairly quickly through put could
put down an inch in a little over an hour/S time in some
places before it lifts to the north.

This band appears associated more with short wave energy
working in from the southwest...combined with leftover
moisture from the edge of the large ocean storm.

After that bands GOES through...expect only periods of light
or snow or flurries for most areas after midnight.

Since there is still a little snow taking place across
Litchfield County...will keep the winter advisory for
that County a little longer.

Still looking for a general 1-3 inches of snowfall in most places
through tonight...with some locally higher amounts to 4 inches
possible. Across Litchfield County...it looks as if they will receive
an average of 3-6 inches.



Some Mohawk Hudson convergence (mhc) still also looks possible
overnight. This takes place when the wind at Albany is from the
north while more of an northeasterly direction at Glens Falls and
either a northerly or northwesterly wind further west in the Mohawk
Valley. The latter has yet to happen but something to watch for
after midnight...but it should be light.

Look for lows around 20 in most places...teens up in the normally
colder spots north and Albany.

A north to northeast wind will average 5-10 miles per hour.

&&

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night/...
the forecast area will be under a large upper level trough through
the entire short term period. There will be several chances for
snow with the clipper type system which is expected to track from
the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday across the forecast area Tuesday night and
into the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. Meanwhile the coastal low
will track from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region Tuesday morning to southeast
of Cape Cod by Wednesday morning and then head out to sea. As a
result of these two systems and the upper level trough...there
will be off and on snowfall through the period with mainly light
accumulations. Expect highs on Tuesday in the middle 20s to middle 30s
with lows Tuesday night in the upper teens to middle 20s. Highs on
Wednesday are expected to be in the middle 20s to upper 30s with lows
Wednesday night in the single digits to around 20.

Lake effect snow is expected across the western Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday. At this
time it is too early to pinpoint amounts but with a large
temperature differential between Lake Ontario and the cold air
funneling across the lake...expect a pretty strong band to set up
with a fairly long fetch as there will be little shear. Highs on
Thursday are expected to be in the middle teens to upper 20s.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
it still looks as if the extended will feature colder than normal
temperatures with the coldest air mass of the season slated for
the weekend.

The extended period will open with a passage of middle latitude trough introducing
cold air (but the not the coldest) Thursday night into Friday. With this air mass
will come the usual lake effect snow across the central Mohawk Valley/southwest
Adirondacks and perhaps the eastern Catskills. At this point the flow looks to
be sheared for optimal (heavy) lake effect snow but we will
reevaluate that threat as we later into the week.

The rest of the area will dry with partial sunshine but cold. High
temperatures Friday will be in the 20s from Albany southward...teens
north. Lows will be in the single numbers north/teens south.

Then...a piece of the polar vortex...will break off from the Arctic Circle
and plunge southward as we head into Friday night and Saturday. This feature
will drive the coldest airmass of this winter season into our region.
The leading edge of this nanook air mass could touch off a brief round of
snow squalls Friday night. While accumulations with this feature
would light...snow squalls could problems for travels. Specific timing for
any squalls is not possible at this time...but we will pinpoint times
as we near Friday night or early Saturday.

Saturday will be bitterly...if not brutally cold. A stiff northwest or north
wind will add to the cold. Highs will only be in the teens most
valley locations...single numbers most of the elevated terrain although
temperatures might actually remain below zero across portions of
the Adirondack park. The wind will likely drive wind chills into
the advisory or even warning thresholds across much of our
elevated areas...possibly even into some valley locations.

As if that wasn't enough...we will have to watch yet another potential
ocean storm tracking well offshore but still possibly capable of bringing some
light snow or show showers over a portion of our region. For now...just
went slight chances for snow showers everywhere on Saturday.

Saturday night will be extremely cold with lows look for reach zero about
5 below capital region southward....-5 to -15 across the higher terrain.
There still looks to be some breeze stirring so again wind chill values
could very well be pushed into the advisory or warning levels.

It looks to remain bitterly cold on Sunday with highs 10-15 in the
valley...0 to 10 above higher terrain. At least it looks partly
to mostly sunny but still breezy.

By Monday as Arctic high pressure slide to our east...a southerly flow
should allow a moderation in the bitter cold air to begin.

&&

Aviation /04z Tuesday through Saturday/...
expect mainly IFR conditions this evening at all the tafs
due to light snow. This snow should end by 03z at kpou/04z
kpsf and around 06z kalb and kgfl. A band of moderate snow
will work over kalb through about 05z so visibilities there
could go down to 1/2sm (have included a tempo for them through
04z.

After the snow taper to flurries...we should be left with MVFR ceilings
(low MVFR with extra fuel required at kpsf).

These MVFR ceilings look to persist at all the tafs (other than kalb)
through tomorrow...although we do raise them to 4000 feet above ground level at
kalb.

The wind will be mainly northeast at kpsf and kgfl 5-10kts tonight
but more northerly at kalb and kgfl. The wind will become more light
and variable on Tuesday.

Another disturbance might bring a little more snow or snow showers
Tuesday night.

Outlook...
Tuesday night-Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Thu: moderate operational impact. Brisk. Chance of shsn.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday-Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Sat: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro related issues are anticipated over the next few days.

Some light precipitation...all in the form of snow...is expected
through Thursday.

With colder temperatures arriving by later in the week...ice cover
on rivers and lakes will increase in coverage and thickness.
Temperatures should be remain completely below freezing from Wednesday
night through the rest of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Climate...
will be bitterly cold over the weekend with below zero lows expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The last time we had temperatures below zero was:

Albany ny:
-9 degrees on February 24, 2015
note: the low on March 6, 2015 was zero degrees

Glens Falls ny:
-15 degrees on March 6, 2015

Poughkeepsie ny:
-2 degrees on March 6, 2015

Bennington vt:
-11 degrees on March 6, 2015

Pittsfield ma:
-4 degrees on March 7, 2015



The record lows for February 14 are:

Albany: -10 degrees set in 1987

Glens falls: -24 degrees set in 2003

Poughkeepsie: -14 degrees set in 1979

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am EST Tuesday for ctz001-013.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis/11
near term...hwjiv
short term...11
long term...hwjiv
aviation...hwjiv
hydrology...11
climate...

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