Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1043 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014
southerly winds tonight will help warm temperatures to well above
normal tonight and Sunday. A low pressure system and the associated
cold front will approach from the west on Sunday... bringing some
rain showers to the area. Cooler and brisk conditions in the wake of
the frontal passage will return for Sunday night into Monday. Most
of next week looks dry...with seasonable temperatures during the
middle of the week...then above normal temperatures later in the
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 1043 PM EDT...stratus clouds just now starting to increase
across southern areas...with a thicker canopy moving northward
from Long Island and coastal CT. Have adjusted grids to mention
increasing clouds from south to north across much of the areas
overnight...especially from the Hudson Valley eastward into
western New England.
Will continue to mention chance probability of precipitation for areas south and east of
Albany after midnight...as a disturbance and a pocket of elevated
instability move across the area. Mesoscale models such as the
hrrr and local hi res WRF and even 12km NAM still indicating
scattered showers developing with perhaps a rumble or two of
The southerly flow will persist into tonight with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky. Surface winds should remain somewhat elevated
due to the persistent gradient across the region. Overnight temperatures
will be mild as dewpoints climb into the 50s. Lows will be in the
middle 50s to lower 60s. There could be some showers/drizzle late
tonight across the southeast part of the forecast area due to
Atlantic moisture moving into that region in the persistent
southerly flow. There could also be some showers across the
northwest due to the frontal boundary approaching from the west
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
approaching cold front will result in an increase in the chance of
showers during the day...with the best chance for showers during the
afternoon and early Sunday night. Across the far southeast portion
of the forecast area...showers may hold off until Sunday evening.
During this period...likely and categorical probability of precipitation have been forecast
for about the northwest third of the forecast area...around 50
percent probability of precipitation over the central third...then only 25 to 35 percent
probability of precipitation over the southeast third.
Probability of precipitation are forecast to decrease later Sunday night...but 15 to 40
percent probability of precipitation have been forecast to linger through Monday morning as
an upper level trough moves through. Most of the region from the
Hudson Valley east is forecast to be dry Monday afternoon...with a 20 to
30 percent chance of showers west of the Hudson Valley.
As another sprawling high pressure system begins to move in Monday
night...skies will begin to clear.
A very mild Sunday ahead of the front with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 80s. Still mild Sunday night because the front moves through
late and temperatures do not have a chance to drop that much...lows will be
in the upper 40s and 50s. The brunt of the colder air arrives on
Monday with highs only in the 50s and 60s and a gusty northwest
wind. Lows Monday night will be 35 to 45.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
the long term period will be characterized by an extended period of
dry weather as a sprawling area of high pressure sits across the
At the start of the long term period...an upper-level trough will be
exiting off to the northeast...with an expansive upper-level ridge
and surface high pressure building in behind it. Other than some
early morning clouds across northern areas Tuesday the rest of the
day looks to be partly cloudy with cyclonic flow lingering across
The rest of the long term period will be characterized by the
aforementioned area of high pressure that will build across the
region. This high pressure will stay through the week and into the
weekend allowing for a several-day stretch of gorgeous mild weather
with mostly clear skies.
High temperatures throughout the long term period will generally be
in the 60s and 70s with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s
to the low 50s.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions persisting across the terminals early this
evening...however conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight
as a low level stratus deck develops due to moist southerly flow
regime. Ceilings should lower to MVFR then eventually IFR before
daybreak. A disturbance grazing areas south and east of Albany
overnight may bring a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
to the kpou/kpsf terminals...so have continued to indicate vcsh to
account for this.
Conditions should gradually improve Sunday morning into the early
afternoon...as our region will be in a warm sector ahead of a cold
front advancing eastward across the eastern Great Lakes. Ceilings
expected to rise back to MVFR then eventually VFR range by early
afternoon. Chances for showers will increase towards Sunday
evening associated with the cold front.
Winds will be southerly around 5-10 knots...becoming south-southwest
by Sunday afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest Sunday
night behind the cold front.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday night to thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
low level moisture will be increasing...so expect relative humidity values to
remain above 50 percent for the rest of the weekend.
The shower potential increases on Sunday into early Sunday night.
Southerly winds of 5 to 15 miles per hour tonight with some gusts over 20 miles per hour.
Winds will remain southerly on Sunday at 10 to 20 miles per hour with some
gusts over 25 miles per hour.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through next week.
A low pressure system will approach and cross the region this
weekend bringing some much needed rainfall to the area Sunday into
Sunday night. Rainfall amounts are anticipated to generally be a
tenth to a third of an inch with higher amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch
A return to dry weather is expected for most of next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.