Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
633 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
high pressure from Canada will bring drier and slightly cooler
air today and be in control of our weather through early Saturday.
The weather becomes active again later in the day Saturday and
lasting through the remainder of the weekend with a return to
showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 600 am EDT...mostly scattered-broken high and middle level clouds remain
across the forecast area and have increased the sky grids across the
region for the next few hours. Otherwise...not much change from
The active weather...heat and humidity have exited the region as a
northerly wind of slightly cooler and less humid air filters into
the region. The main upper trough remains upstream from the region
which will keep a mixture of clouds and sunshine in the forecast.
Dewpoints continue to slowly descend as this trend will remain in
the forecast through the day. The h850 temperatures this morning will
settle around +10c...however...will moderate through the day. This
should allow for the partial insolation to assist with valley
temperatures climbing to between 75-80f and mainly Lower-Middle
70s for the terrain. Skies should become mostly clear toward days
end as subsidence layer lowers and drier air continues to filter
into our region.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
surface high pressure continues to build across the forecast area as
the upper trough slowly lifts out of the region. This will leave a
mainly clear sky tonight and a mostly sunny day on Friday /some
diurnally driven cumulus across the terrain is expected/. Tonights low
temperatures will be rather comfortable with 40s across the
terrain and lower 50s for valley locations. Highs Friday afternoon
climb into the lower 80s for the valley and 70s elsewhere as the
h850 temperatures rebound into lower teens celsius.
Friday night...Hudson Bay low migrating a little further south and
energy coming out of the intermountain west will result in some
upstream convection. Cloud debris within the confluent flow across
the northern tier of the Continental U.S. Is expected to move in from west to
east overnight. Regardless of some increase of higher level
moisture...light winds at the surface and initially clearing will
result in the potential of radiational fog as overnight lows will
mainly be into the 50s /upper 40s for the dacks/.
Saturday...the 00z European model (ecmwf) is faster with the clouds and the
approach of a warm front when compared to the other models. To
compromise...we will introduce a slight chance pop of convection
Saturday afternoon for the entire region. Elevated lifted parcels
yield dropping showalter values to warrant a slight chance for
thunder as well. Warm advection...lower level moisture transport and
an increase of cloud cover will allow for highs back into the 80s for
many locations and dewpoints climbing back to around 60f.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
the long term period looks rather unsettled.
Start to increase probability of precipitation Saturday evening to chance probability of precipitation as forecast area starts
to be converged upon by several low pressure systems one passing
through the middle Atlantic region and a second one passing through the
upper Great Lakes region which has a warm front pushing through the
forecast area late Saturday night. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Sunday through Tuesday looks to be active as the series of low
pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries converge across
the northeast. Timing and location of individual low pressure
systems differ amongst the models. So at this point in time will
place likely probability of precipitation in the grids on Sunday with chance probability of precipitation through
the remainder of the period. A large upper level trough will also be
in place across the region during this period with spokes of
vorticity rotating around the base of the trough through our region.
This looks to further enhance the precipitation. Have placed
thunderstorms in the forecast each day with the bulk of the
thunderstorm activity expected during the afternoon and evening
hours. Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to range from the middle
70s to lower 80s with highs on Tuesday ranging from the middle 60s to
upper 70s. Lows Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to
upper 60s with lows Monday night in the middle 50s to lower 60s and
lows Tuesday night in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
For now have a dry forecast on Wednesday as a weak ridge of high
pressure builds in at the surface. Expect highs on Wednesday to be
in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Overall temperatures are expected to average below normal during the long
term period with precipitation well above normal.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Tuesday/...
expect mainly VFR conds at the taf sites until late tonight when
fog is expected to produce IFR conditions at kgfl and kpsf after
The wind will be north or northwest 5-10 kts through today and then
become light and variable tonight.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
it will turn drier and less humid conditions today with increasing
afternoon sunshine. Dry pleasant weather will prevail through
Saturday morning with the formation of dew each night.
Relative humidity values will dip to the 40s on Thursday afternoon...mainly 30s
Friday afternoon...and 40s Saturday afternoon.
The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday
afternoon and through at least early Tuesday.
The surface wind will be northerly 5 to 15 miles per hour today and Friday
with less than 10 miles per hour tonight.
kenx dual pol total rainfall amounts indicated anywhere from a
quarter of an inch to locally two inches has fallen across our
region. The heaviest amounts appear to be in Taconics and the
Berkshires...but there were a few other localities with nearly as
The rainfall had little impact to the region and with dry weather
expected Friday through Saturday morning...and elevated levels
will recede as a cooler less humid air mass moves in.
The weather returns to unsettle conditions as we head into late
Saturday extending into early next week. There is a potential
that some of that rain could be heavy.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.