Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
632 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Synopsis...
strong high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
dominate our weather today...with morning sunshine giving way to
increasing clouds as an upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes
tracks east. This disturbance may bring some light showers of rain
or snow to areas mainly north and west of the capital region
tonight. Another high pressure system will build across the region
from the north over the weekend...with mainly dry conditions and
near seasonable temperatures.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 630 am EDT...mainly clear skies continue across the
region...with just some patchy high thin clouds across northern
areas...and some patches of lower clouds across the middle Hudson
Valley and northwest CT. We expect skies to be mainly sunny this
morning...but high and middle level clouds will increase this
afternoon...ahead of a weakening upper level disturbance currently
tracking east northeast across the Great Lakes. Skies this
afternoon will become partly to even mostly cloudy at times...as a
thickening veil of high and middle level clouds develops.

We will also have to watch the aforementioned lower clouds
which are currently pooling across east central PA. Some of these
may eventually try to drift north...as the low level flow veers
later this morning. This may erode as it reaches our region.

After our chilly morning temperatures in the 20s in most areas...temperatures
should reach somewhat closer to seasonable levels this
afternoon...with maximum temperatures expected to reach the Lower/Middle 50s in
most valleys...and middle 40s to lower 50s across higher elevations.

Southeast winds will increase a bit this afternoon...and may gust to
around...or slightly over 20 miles per hour in some areas.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
tonight...the aforementioned weak disturbance will approach from the
Great Lakes region late tonight...with a surface cold front pushing northwest
to southeast across the region late tonight into early Sat am. Although
there is a fair amount of high level moisture with this system...low
level moisture and lift will be scarce...with most of the low level
moisture remaining in a southern stream system affecting the Gulf
Coast and middle Atlantic regions. So...at this time we only expect
some light rain showers or sprinkles this evening across the
southern Adirondacks...which may spread as far S as the Mohawk
Valley/Lake George region late this evening and overnight...and
perhaps some upslope areas of southern Vermont after midnight. Thermal
profiles suggest mainly rain would fall...but any showers that occur
after midnight could mix with or change to snow across higher
elevations of the southern Adirondacks as some cooler air seeps
southward in the wake of the surface cold front. As for temperatures...expect
mins to fall into the lower 30s across higher elevations of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont...with mainly middle to upper 30s
elsewhere as a bit of wind...and some clouds keep temperatures slightly
milder than recent nights.

Sat...the aforementioned weak cold front will continue to move
southward across the region Sat am. Again...some sprinkles or
flurries could occur with...or in the wake of this frontal passage
across portions of the southern Adirondacks early in the morning.
Otherwise...as high pressure builds south and east into the
region...skies should become mostly sunny by late Sat morning into
the afternoon hours. The mixing depth should deepen to between
875-850 mb...or perhaps a bit higher...allowing for maximum temperatures to
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys...with generally 50s
across most higher elevations in the Catskills and across western
New England...but slightly cooler maxes across higher elevations
across the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains...where only
40s are expected due to persistent cool air advection.

Sat nt-sun...high pressure should bring generally fair conditions.
Decent radiational cooling potential should allow min temperatures to fall
into the chilly 20s to lower 30s in most areas Sat nt/sun am...with
perhaps some teens across portions of the southwest Adirondacks. A
quick rebound in temperatures is expected for Sunday...as deep mixing and
some low level warm advection allows maximum temperatures to reach the
Lower/Middle 60s in most valley areas...with 50s expected elsewhere.
Some patchy high/middle level clouds could reach northwest areas by late
Sunday.

Sun nt...an upper level disturbance rotating southeast across the
region may allow for some clouds...and perhaps a few showers of rain
in valleys...and rain/snow showers for higher elevations late at
night. At this time...due to some uncertainty on the
strength...exact path...and moisture availability with this
disturbance...have limited probability of precipitation to only the western Adirondacks. Min
temperatures should be slightly milder than Sat nt due to some clouds and a
breeze...with mainly 30s expected.

&&

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the long term period will start out dry in most areas on Monday and
Monday night with just slight chance to chance probability of precipitation north as forecast area will be
in the warm sector between a warm front draped across Maine and a
cold front back across the upper Great Lakes region. The cold front
will move across our region on Tuesday as a wave of low pressure
moves southeast across our region with a trailing cold front. Thus
most of Tuesday and Tuesday night look wet with at least scattered
showers. The low pressure system quickly departs on Wednesday off
the New England coast with high pressure over the central Great
Lakes. This will result in a fairly strong pressure gradient across
the forecast area so windy conditions can be expected on Wednesday. By Thursday
the ridge of high pressure is on our door step so expect diminishing
winds and a mostly sunny sky.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday are expected to range from the upper 50s
northwest to the upper 60s to around 70 southeast. Monday night and
Tuesday night will see lows ranging from the middle and upper 30s
northwest to the middle 40s southeast. Highs on Wednesday will range
from the upper 40s northwest to around 60 southeast. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the upper 20s northwest to around 40 southeast and
highs on Thursday will be in the middle 50s northwest to the middle 60s
southeast.

&&

Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected at all of the taf sites through the end
of the taf period at 12z Saturday with the exception of kpou where
some stratocumulus clouds are expected this morning with MVFR
conditions at times. Most of the day will feature high cirrus clouds with
mainly bkn250 conditions. The ceilings will lower this evening to
ovc120 and remain so tonight.

For today winds will be south at generally 5 to 10 kts becoming
light and variable this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: low operational impact.Breezy slight chance of rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
..minimum relative humidity of around 30 percent this afternoon...

High pressure moving into the Canadian Maritimes...and weak low
pressure approaching from the Great Lakes will allow south to
southeast winds to increase to 10-20 miles per hour by late morning into the
afternoon. A few locations could gust into the 20-25 miles per hour range
later this afternoon. Winds will decrease to 5-15 miles per hour
tonight...then shift into the northwest on Saturday and increase
to 15-25 miles per hour.

The relative humidity is expected to fall into the 25-35 percent range in
valleys...and 35-50 percent range across higher elevations this
afternoon. The relative humidity will recover into the 75-85 percent range
tonight...then fall to 20-30 percent for Sat afternoon.

Isolated to scattered showers of rain and snow will be possible
tonight...mainly across the southern Adirondacks. Any
precipitation should remain very light...with liquid equivalent
amts remaining under one tenth of an inch.

&&

Hydrology...
riverbank on the Schroon river is at major flood and has crested.
Based on current forecast it is only expected to drop to below
moderate flood stage Saturday morning with many more days until it
falls below flood stage.

Overall looking at dry weather into early next week. Some light
precipitation is possible tonight into Saturday mainly north and
west of the capital district. Main Stem rivers will continue to
recede. Our next widespread chances for precipitation is not
expected until Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kl/lfm
near term...kl/lfm
short term...kl
long term...11
aviation...11
fire weather...kl
hydrology...iaa/kl/lfm