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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
705 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015

high pressure will build in from the lower Great Lakes
region and Ohio Valley today. The surface high will move offshore
tonight into Sunday with milder weather and above normal
temperatures expected to close the Columbus day weekend. The next
chance of rain showers should arrive late Monday night into Tuesday
with a cold front.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 650 am EDT...the Columbus day weekend opens with cool the middle and upper level trough axis is moving
across eastern New York and New England. Also...a secondary cold front is
moving through eastern New York and western New England...South Dakota high pressure
builds in from the W/NW. The skies have begun to gradually clear
from the capital district south and east due to the subsidence in
the wake of the main cold front and the upper level disturbance.
Some adjustments were made to hourly T/tds/rh/apparent temperatures based
on the hourly observations. Also the skycover was adjusted based
on the latest infrared and 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery.

The cold advection will continue this morning...before h850 temperatures
rebound to +3c to +5c between 18z Sat-00z sun. North to northwest winds of 5 to
15 miles per hour will only allow maximum temperatures to reach the u40s to m50s across
the mountains...expect mainly middle and u50s in the valley areas...except
for the middle Hudson Valley where some lower 60s are possible.
Partly sunny conditions will transition to mostly sunny/sunny
conditions as the surface anticyclone builds in over the region from
the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
tonight...a broad area of surface pressure will build in from
PA/NJ/srn New England early on this evening. Clear/mostly clear
skies and light to calm winds will promote ideal radiational
cooling quickly. However...with a weak disturbance in the west/northwest
aloft moving across southeast Quebec and northern New England...then some high
clouds or thin cirrus may increase over the northern zones /north and
east of the capital region/. Our confidence was great enough to
issue a frost advisory for locations where the growing season is
still going...especially north and east of the capital region.

These locations included the north-central of the
Mohawk River valley /srn Herkimer...and southern Fulton counties/...The
Glens falls...Southern Lake George and northern Saratoga region /se
Warren...Washington...and northern Saratoga counties/...the
Berkshires...and eastern Windham city in southern Vermont for temperatures in the 33-36f
range. Some zones were close such as Montgomery...southern Saratoga and
parts of the eastern Catskills...but not quite half the zone /area-
wise/ hit the frost advisory criteria. The frost advisory was run
from midnight to 9 am...just in case temperatures drop off quickly in the
radiative environment. Outside the frost advisory lows will be in
the u20s to m30s across the southern dacks...and Bennington and western
Windham counties in Vermont where the growing season ended last week.
Most other locations will be in the u30s to near 40f.

Sunday...a very nice middle day to the Columbus Holiday weekend
will set-up with low and middle level warm advection increasing as
the surface high drifts off the southern New England coast. H850 temperatures
rise to +9c to +13c. The boundary layer winds increase from the west
to SW at 15 to 25 kts. Mostly sunny conditions are expected with
the surface anticyclone riding in from the south and west. High temperatures
on Sunday should be close to 5 degrees above normal with middle and
u60s in the valley areas...and u50s to m60s over the hills and

Sunday night...temperatures will not be as cold as the previous night
with the low and middle level ridging increasing from the south and
west. A deepening upper level trough will be approaching from the
upper Midwest and S-central Canada. Lows will be mainly in the lower
to m40s.

Columbus day into Tuesday morning...a great finish to the Holiday
weekend is expected with increasing low and middle level heights over
New York and New England. H850 temperatures according to the latest gefs
increase to 1 to 2 Standard deviations above normal. High temperatures
should be at least 10 degrees above normal...and may have to trend
warmer with later forecasts. H925 temperatures increase to +15c to
+17c...and highs in the 70-75f range will be common in the valley
areas...and m60s to around 70f over the hills/mtns. The upstream
upper level trough and its associated cold front will quickly
approach from Great Lakes region and southeast Ontario Monday night.
Breezy and mild conditions will occur overnight. The better
synoptic lift and dynamics look to impact locations north and
west of the Tri Cities with some showers. A slight chance of showers
was used late Monday from the Hudson Valley east...and higher
chances north and west of the capital district.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
after a mild start to the day on Tuesday...a cold front is forecast to
cross the Albany forecast area by the end of the day. This will be the
beginning of a transition to cooler weather with temperatures falling to
1-2 Standard deviations below normal by Friday.

Normal temperature range for the week here at Albany is a low around
40 and a high around 60. By Friday...highs will only be in the middle
50s at Albany...with highs only around 50 in the hill towns.

A slower cold front on Tuesday could lead to some thunderstorms for
the Albany forecast area. As of mention of thunder in the
forecast as forecast cape is in the 0-50 j/kg range and showalters
forecast only as low as about 2.

With a trough digging into the northeast...additional short wave
energy looks to work through the region Wednesday through Friday
bringing occasional cloudiness and additional chances of
showers...mainly to the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains of
Vermont. It might actually be cold enough by Thursday night for some
snow showers at elevations over 2000 feet.


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are forecast for most of the 24 hour taf period 12z
Saturday-12z Sunday. The exception is as kgfl which may see some
fog around sunrise Sunday morning. For now MVFR fog but later
shifts will have to reevaluate fog potential.

Winds should be north to northwest at 5-10 kts today becoming
light and variable Saturday night. On Sunday...winds will
increase to 5-10 kts from the southwest.


Saturday night to Columbus day: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure will build in from the lower Great Lakes
region and Ohio Valley today. The surface high will move offshore
tonight into Sunday with milder weather and above normal
temperatures expected to close the Columbus day weekend.

No fire weather issues are expected the next several days after
the widespread rainfall yesterday with amounts ranging from a few
tenths of an inch to around an inch for eastern New York and
western New England.

The relative humidity values will lower to 35 to 45 percent this afternoon...then
increase to 90 to 100 percent with dew and frost formation. The
minimum relative humidity values Sunday afternoon will be 35 to 55 percent.

The winds will be from the north to northwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour
today...and they will be light to calm tonight. The winds will
increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour on Sunday and


no Hydro problems are expected the next five days ending Wednesday.

Some minor rises occurred on the main Stem rivers especially over
the northern half of the Hydro service area from the rainfall
yesterday. A dry stretch of weather is expected prior to Monday

A frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance will bring some
showers Monday night through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts at this
point will range from a tenth to a half an inch.

River flows will lower back to normal or below normal seasonal
levels for middle October.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for
Massachusetts...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for
Vermont...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for


near term...wasula
short term...wasula
long term...sand
fire weather...wasula

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