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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
645 am EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure will bring sunshine but cool weather today. As the
high moves east on Thursday...a southerly flow and mainly dry
weather should warm the temperatures above 50 degrees for the
first time this year.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 610 am EDT...other than some early morning clouds mainly
across southern and western portions of the forecast area...expect a mostly
sunny to sunny but cool day as a ridge of high pressure builds
east from the Great Lakes region into central New York by late in the
day. Highs are expected to range from the middle 30s northwest to the
upper 40s southeast.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
for tonight high pressure moves off the eastern Seaboard as a warm
front approaches from the Ohio Valley late tonight. Skies will go
from mainly clear this evening to increasing clouds after midnight
as warm advection strengthens across the region. Lows tonight are
expected to be in the upper teens to middle 20s.

On Thursday expect the warm front to lift northeast through our
region with a strong south to southwest flow developing in its
wake. There will be a chance of showers late in the day across the
far northwest portion of the forecast area. Variable clouds should be the
order of the day as some clearing and downsloping in the valleys
is expected in the wake of the warm front. It will be a mild and
breezy day with highs mainly in the 50s except for still some
upper 40s across far northwest portions of the forecast area.

Temperatures should not fall much Thursday night as the region
remains in the warm sector with a southerly flow continuing.
Expect lows to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

For Friday and Friday night have gone with high chance to likely
probability of precipitation as a series of cold fronts will be dropping southeast from
southern Canada with front number one moving through the forecast area
during the morning followed by a second cold front Friday night
featuring a wave of low pressure moving northeast along the cold
front. Not only is rain expected...but the rain will be changing
to snow across the northwest portion of the forecast area overnight with at
least several inches of accumulation expected by Saturday morning.
Expect highs on Friday to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s with lows
Friday night ranging from the upper 20s northwest to middle 40s
southeast.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the long term period looks to remain rather active as
northern jetstream continues to influence the region. Confidence in
these system is fairly low as there are some pretty good
disagreements between the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf). For now we leaned with
wpc in this case...leaned a little more with the GFS model.

The long range starts on Saturday...as a departing but deepening
storm will bring additional rain and snow showers to the
region...with accumulating snow likely to remain well north and west
of the capital region. It will be a chilly and increasingly windy
day with highs 40-45 in the valleys...middle to upper 30s higher
terrain. Sunshine should return by late in the day.

Saturday night the 00z GFS indicated a clipper type system working
across the region while the 00z European model (ecmwf) had a weaker one. For
now...went slight chances for showers in most places Saturday night
with 30 probability of precipitation across the Adirondacks. Lows in the 20s to around 30
would insure whatever would fall would be snow. Again...right
now...any snowfall amounts look light Saturday night.

Sunday will be quite chilly but both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS indicated a
dry start to the day. However the 00z European model (ecmwf) indicated another
clipper type system could have more precipitation knocking on our
door by day/S end. For now...kept Easter Sunday dry.

Sunday night into Monday...as high pressure moves offshore...warm
air advection will increase clouds and the threat of a least a
little precipitation. Have low probability of precipitation everywhere. Any
showers look cold enough to be snow Sunday night with lows in the
20s to around 30...but changing to rain on Monday with highs
ranging from the upper 30s northwest to around 50 southeast.
With light amounts of precipitation...little or no snow
accumulation is expected at this time.

Monday night and especially Tuesday should turn milder if the GFS
pans out as a broad southwesterly flow increases. Along with the
warmup the threat of showers will increases...especially late
Tuesday as a slow moving cold front approaches the region from the
northwest. However...the ecwmf has another clipper working through
Monday night...which drives a cold front through before any real
warmup ensues...turning cooler by Tuesday with more high pressure
and dry weather.

Again...since we have leaned more with the warmer GFS...we will
carry 30-40 probability of precipitation through this period with highs 50-55 in the Hudson
Valley...40s higher terrain.

Lows Monday night will range in the middle 30s to upper 20s...so any
showers should be in the form of snow north...a wintry mix
south...changing to all rain everywhere by Tuesday as high
temperatures are forecast to reach 50-55 in the Hudson Valley...40s
higher terrain/higher if the GFS is totally right/but lower if the
ecwmf is correct.

&&

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...

VFR condition throughout the taf period.

There will be few if any sensible clouds today...and not many
tonight. Visibilities look to be unrestricted.

The wind will be northwest around 10kts today...with gusts to near
20kts at kalb and kpsf at times later in the morning into the
afternoon hours. The wind will diminish to light and variable this
evening.

Note...the rain sensor was left on overnight at the kpou metar...it
is not raining at kpou at this time. No precipitation was falling at
all.

Outlook...

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night through saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance
of rain showers.
Saturday night and Sunday...no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
examining nohrsc indicates most of the snow is now gone in the
Hudson Valley from about the Mohawk River southward. Further
north...snow was patchy but still in the upper Hudson Valley as
well as the Mohawk Valley. Plenty of snow still covered most of the
mountains surrounding the Hudson Valley.

Today will be sunny...chilly and dry with low afternoon
humidities...generally in the 30-35 percent range. A northwest wind
will average 5 to 15 miles per hour with a few gusts to 20 miles per hour possible.

Tonight the wind will be light and variable. A partial recovery is
expected.

Then on Thursday...the wind will turn to the south 15 to
25 miles per hour with some higher gusts. Afternoon relative humidity values look to be around
40 percent. However...if the wind were to turn more
southwesterly...they could dip a little lower than that.

Clouds will arrive Thursday night along with some showers...which
will persist into Friday night...changing to snow across the
Adirondacks before ending Saturday. It looks as if everyone should
end up with over a quarter inch of rainfall equivalent during this
time frame.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro related problems are anticipated through at least
Wednesday.

Well above normal temperatures are possible Thursday through Friday
which would bring about widespread snow melt. A large storm system
may impact the region Friday into Saturday with moderate amounts
of rain...which would lead to significant river rises and perhaps
a few ice jams mainly north of the Mohawk River.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...11/NAS
near term...11
short term...11
long term...hwjiv
aviation...hwjiv
fire weather...hwjiv
hydrology...snd/11

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