Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1001 am EST Sat Nov 28 2015
a cold front will continue to push to the south of the region
today...but some light rain or drizzle will linger for much of
today across areas south of Albany. Behind the front...high
pressure and a seasonably cold air mass will move into the region
for the weekend and into early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 945 am...a band of fairly widespread light rain has formed
over the central and southern Catskills and was moving east. Have
increased probability of precipitation in most areas south of Albany to likely for a few
hours this morning to account for this area. Otherwise probability of precipitation are
forecast to decrease from north to south to dry levels in most
areas by late in the day.
The cold front is now south of the entire forecast area. Temperatures
will be tricky since they have already dropped considerably since
late last night and early this morning. Expect some clearing and
the ending of precipitation to allow for some recovery in temperatures during the
early afternoon...then temperatures will fall again later in the
afternoon. Overall expect highs from this point to range from the
30s to the lower 40s from Interstate 90 and points north...and
40s to lower 50s to the south.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
some lingering showers this evening in the middle Hudson Valley and
mw CT. Clearing will gradually build south. High pressure builds
in from quite a distance from the west...and the core of the
coldest air delayed. There could be some intervals of light north
to northwest winds during the night. So temperatures may not be
able to fall as much as they could tonight. Lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s...lower 20s higher elevations. Much more clearing to
the north compared to the south...but by daybreak Sunday...even
the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT should have a mostly clear sky.
A reinforcing shot of colder air tracks into the region Sunday and
Sunday night with high pressure building south from Canada. The
mean upper trough will likely not be amplified enough to support
the coldest core of air to build into our region...but still some
additional cooling will result in highs Sunday in the middle 40s to
near 50...some upper 30s northern areas.
High pressure centers itself over the region Sunday night into
Monday...with lots of sun and light winds. High pressure begins
to build east and weak warm advection begins late Monday and
increases through Monday night. Highs Monday in the lower to middle
40s...middle to upper 30s northern areas. Just some isolated showers
or snow/sleet in western areas toward daybreak Tuesday morning.
Still no organized lake effect through the period based on
limited duration of favorable winds and instability over and
downstream of the Great Lakes.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the period starts out early Tuesday with high pressure positioned
just off the New England coast and an approaching warm front from
the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic region. The warm front and
associated isentropic lift on the 290k surface will result in
precipitation developing during the day. Timing is the main concern
due to temperature profiles initially looking cold enough for a mix
of snow/sleet early Tuesday morning. GFS has trended slower with
onset and matches fairly closely to latest European model (ecmwf). Will mention
chance probability of precipitation from around the capital district south and west Tuesday
morning...increasing during the afternoon hours. Across the higher
terrain and sheltered valleys...will mention the chance for a brief
mix of snow/sleet before the low levels warm enough for plain rain.
A fairly strong 40-50 knots southerly jet at 850 mb should ensure
enough warming across the entire region by Tuesday afternoon for
Fairly decent isentropic lift expected to persist into Tuesday
night...so will mention likely probability of precipitation across the region. Thermal
profiles continue to indicate rain as ptype...although surface temperatures
will be in the 30s across most of the area making for a cold rain.
Despite precipitation occurring much of Tuesday and Tuesday night...the
parent storm will still be positioned well west of the region over
the central Great Lakes by sunrise Wednesday. The upper level low
will then move across the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night...providing additional rain showers...changing to snow showers
over the higher terrain Wednesday night as colder air moves in
aloft. Any accumulations look to be minor.
Timing differences in the models for Thursday...but a north-northwest flow
should at least result in some upslope snow showers mainly over the
higher terrain with breezy and cool conditions elsewhere. High
pressure looks to build in Thursday night into Friday with dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures to close out the work week.
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
cold front moving southward across the region had already passed
through kgfl/kalb/kpsf and was approaching kpou as of 12z.
Occasional light rain showers continue to accompany the
front...with some showering lingering behind the front as well.
Conditions will mainly be MVFR this morning at
kgfl/kalb...although brief periods of IFR ceilings will be possible.
IFR ceilings at kpsf will gradually rise to MVFR range by late
morning. Kpou currently VFR...but will quickly deteriorate to MVFR
once the cold front reaches the terminal.
Gradual improvement then expected from late morning into the
afternoon hours. Still...will likely see MVFR conditions
persisting through much of the daylight hours...with improvement
to VFR after dark as drier air starts to work into the region.
Winds today will be northerly behind the cold front at 5-10
kts...becoming light and variable tonight.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn...sleet.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
areas of light rain and showers today...then dry weather Sunday.
Relative humidity values this afternoon in the 50-70 percent range. Relative humidity values
Sunday afternoon in the 35 to 50 percent range. Nighttime relative humidity
values between 75-100 percent.
Northwest to northeast winds around 15 miles per hour today...then less than
15 miles per hour tonight and Sunday.
We will end our fire weather discussion...fire weather forecast
(fwf) and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon issuance on
showers will affect our region into this evening...with the
possibility of some snow showers in the southern Adirondacks.
Rainfall amounts with this system will be light...generally less
than a quarter inch. So little or no response is expected on any
stream or rivers within our hydrological service area.
It will turn dry later tonight into early next week.
The next chance of significant precipitation will be Tuesday...
will should be mainly in the form of rain.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on