Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
815 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
clouds will slowly increase tonight. A storm developing in the
nations Heartland...will track east through the Ohio Valley
overnight...then to about New York City by late Wednesday. It will
strengthen as it moves off Cape Cod by Wednesday night. This storm
will bring heavy snow north of the capital region beginning by
daybreak. From about the capital region southward...rain will
develop early Wednesday and slowly change to a wintry mix and
eventually snow Wednesday night.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 730 PM...current temperatures were running a few degrees higher than
previously forecast...and current dewpoints were several degrees
lower. Have adjusted the hourly temperature/dewpoint grids to reflect
current conditions. Other than these changes the previous forecast
as of 515 PM EDT...finally a Spring like day with lots of sunshine
and temperatures climbing into the 50s across most areas..40s higher
terrain. Enjoy it...because it might be awhile before we see another
day this nice.
Through evening...it will remain clear to partly with temperatures
slowly back through the 40s. The wind will be west 5 to 15 miles per hour.
Overnight...clouds will rapidly increase ahead of storm currently
developing over Missouri. It is still weak...but by tomorrow
morning...as a duel upper level maximum jet develops and a baroclinic
zone (strong thermal gradient) tightens...this storm will deepen as
it initially tracks through the southern Ohio Valley by daybreak.
Isentropic lift will allow for an area of precipitation to develop
well out ahead of the storm. Light snow or wintry mix should develop
north of the capital region by daybreak Wednesday. Further
south...we expect temperatures to remain above freezing capital
region southward...therefore precipitation will be in the form of
Overnight lows will range from the middle 20s north and west of
Albany...to the middle 30s south and east of Albany. The wind will
become light and variable.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
a complex winter storm will be impacting the region late
tonight through Thursday morning...
Winter storm warnings have been posted for our Adirondacks...Mohawk
Valley...Lake George Saratoga region...northern Catskills and
A Winter Storm Watch remains in northern Berkshire County.
The key to the outcome of the storm is not only the exact track of
the storm...but the thermal profiles...which are still not etched in
stone. On Wednesday...low level cold air advection will be taking
place. At the same time however...warm air advection...initially in
the middle levels should keep precipitation mostly in the form of rain
or freezing rain from the capital region southward. The freezing
rain will likely be initially confined to the higher terrain
surrounding the capital region...but later during the afternoon will
probably also commence in the capital region and even a little south
Meanwhile to the north of the capital region a wintry mix of
freezing rain...sleet and snow will be taking place as surface
temperatures hold around freezing or actually fall a little. Mostly
snow is expected to fall across the Adirondacks...where snowfall
rates could exceed two inches per hour at times during the
afternoon. The Mohawk Valley...Lake George Saratoga region and
southern Vermont will likely mix of freezing rain...sleet and snow.
High temperatures might take place early Wednesday...topping out
only in the upper 20s across the Adirondacks...lower 30s other
places north of the capital region...middle 30s to upper 30s in the
capital region...and lower 40s well south of Albany. These values
will tend to fall a little by the end of the day.
The surface storm will track east northeastward from the Panhandle
of West Virginia to about New York City by late
Wednesday...deepening as it does so.
By Wednesday evening...as the storm tracks northeast to Cape Cod by
midnight...cold air will wrap in at all levels of the
atmosphere...changing the wintry mix (sleet and freezing rain) to
snow across the capital region shortly after dark. Further
south...rain will turn into freezing rain and sleet. Snow will
continue north of Albany with areas of blowing snow. By
midnight...precipitation should be all snow across our entire region
continuing through early Thursday morning. A middle level trough will
not swing through until early Thursday morning which will continue
to generate upward motion and deformation snow.
A north to northwest wind will increase to 15 to 25 miles per hour...gusting up
to 35 miles per hour...especially over the higher terrain producing areas of
blowing snow...across most areas overnight. Temperatures will dive
into the 20s region wide by midnight...teens Adirondacks...then
bottom out near zero northwest to lower teens southeast by
Snowfall accumulations look to be in the 10 to 20 inch range across
the Adirondacks...7 to 14 inch range northern Catskills/Mohawk
Valley/Lake George Saratoga region as well as southern Vermont.
Further south across the capital region northern Berkshires and
southern Catskills...look for 4 to 7 inches of snowfall....mixed
with a good deal of sleet.
Across the middle Hudson Valley...southern Berkshires and Litchfield
County look for 1-4 inches of snowfall...highest over the elevated
terrain also with some sleet.
We are concerned that up to a quarter inch of ice could accrete over
the elevated areas in and around the capital region including the
northern Berkshires. That is why northern Berkshire County remains
in the watch even with similar accumulations compared to the capital
In the immediate capital region southward through most of the Hudson
Valley...we anticipate about a tenth of an inch of ice.
The combination of some ice...wind and snow could lead to isolated
to scattered power outages...mainly areas between the Adirondacks
and the capital region.
Again...we want to stress...that a slight change in track or thermal
profiles could change the outcome of precipitation type
significantly. Please check back for updates concerning this complex
The storm will be in the Gulf of mainly by midday Thursday...and any
snow will taper to lighter snow showers or flurries. However... a
fierce wind could continue awhile longer producing additional
blowing and drifting of the snow...mainly from the capital region
northward. Despite some sunshine by late in the day...temperatures
will struggle to reach 20 from Albany southward...teens north.
Thursday night...the wind will quickly diminish as we clear. With a
fresh snow pack across most of the area...temperatures will dive
down to near record lows. Look for lows in the single numbers south
of Albany...around zero in Albany...as low as 15 below zero across
the Adirondacks. The record low in Albany for March 15th (friday
morning) is our first above zero record of the year (1 above zero)
set back in 1993. We are going right with that number for the low in
Friday...strong March sunshine will get to work and moderate the
airmass. Some clouds will increase with next clipper system...but it
should remain dry all day. Look for highs to recover to the 30s most
areas...except upper 20s across the Adirondacks and southern greens.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the long term period will be characterized by a weak clipper-type
system affecting the region early in the period and below normal
temperatures and high pressure to end the weekend and begin next
At the start of the long term period...long range guidance is in
fairly good agreement handling the arrival of a clipper system from
the Great Lakes region. While there are some timing and strength
differences...particularly along the systems cold front...the
clipper will largely be moisture starved. Regardless...have
indicated chance probability of precipitation beginning Friday night for snow showers with
possibly an inch or two of accumulation especially across the higher
terrain of the southern Adirondacks by daybreak Saturday. Ahead of
the cold front...temperatures will spike into the upper 30s to upper
40s with scattered rain/snow showers tied to higher elevations with
a transition to rain showers elsewhere.
This clipper system will quickly exit east of the region Saturday
night bringing a return of colder temperatures as high pressure
builds in from the west. Lows Saturday night will generally range
from the low teens to middle 20s. High pressure will settle across the
region Sunday resulting in dry weather for most of the forecast
area. Have indicated slight chance probability of precipitation across extreme western areas
as there may be a period of scattered lake effect snow showers
during the afternoon hours. Highs Sunday will struggle to reach into
the upper 20s and middle 30s across the region.
A storm system will take shape off the southeast Continental U.S....and move
well offshore to start next week with high pressure cresting across
the region. 850 hpa temperatures tumble back below -20c across the
region allowing high temperatures Monday to only reach into the 20s
to near 30 for most locations. Another storm system originating from
the Great Lakes region may impact the forecast area for the middle
of next week but forecast confidence is very low and model
differences are high at this time.
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
clouds have begun to increase across the taf sites ahead of the next
storm tracking east from the lower Ohio Valley. Precipitation will likely
break out at the kalb/kgfl/kpou/kpsf taf sites between 07z and 10z.
Conditions will lower to mainly MVFR during that time...and then
widespread IFR ceilings/visibilities are expected at all the taf sites after
10z or 11z. The primary difference between the taf sites will be
precipitation type. At kgfl the precipitation will begin and continue through the day
as mainly wintry precipitation (sn/pl)...but there could be some rain mixed
in at the start...and also during the middle of the day. After
around 21z expect all snow at kgfl. At kpou the precipitation will remain
just rain through the end of the taf period. Mainly rain will also
fall at kalb/kpsf...with temperatures cooling late in the day some wintry
precipitation will begin to mix in after around 22z.
Winds will generally be light tonight...then become northerly on
Wednesday...increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts by late
in the taf period.
Wednesday night: high operational impact. Breezy. Definite
Thu: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Likely shsn.
Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy.
Fri: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Sat-Sun: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
mild temperatures today allowed for some snow melt...especially for
southern areas. A storm system will impact the region tomorrow into
Thursday...with moderate to heavy precipitation.
Across the Adirondacks...all of the precipitation will fall as
snow. Further south...the precipitation will fall as mixed
rain...snow...sleet...and freezing rain. Far southern areas will
see mainly rain from the event. Total liquid equivalent will be
around an inch to an inch and a half. Across northern and central
areas...most of the liquid precipitation will be absorbed into the
existing snow pack.
Further south..some minor rises on rivers and streams cannot be
ruled out. Also...there might be some ponding of water on some roads
and areas of poor drainage...from Albany southward on Wednesday.
However...across southern areas...such as the middle Hudson
Valley...southern Taconics...southern Berkshires...and northwest
CT...moderate to heavy rainfall will lead to the possibility minor
flooding of poor drainage...low lying...and urban
areas...especially in locations where existing snow and ice blocks
drainage...along with significant in bank rises on rivers and
streams. It doesn/T appear that temperatures will remain above
freezing long enough for ice breakup along most larger rivers...as
temperatures should quickly drop below freezing on Wednesday
night. However...an isolated ice jam on a smaller stream or creek
cannot be ruled out through Wednesday evening.
This cold weather will be in place for Thursday and Friday with
temperatures below normal. Daytime temperatures will return above
freezing on Saturday with 40s for most areas...but with overnight
lows dropping below freezing...any snow melt should be slow and not
cause any hydrologic issues.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
New York...Winter Storm Warning from 7 am Wednesday to 11 am EDT Thursday
Massachusetts...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning for maz001.
Vermont...Winter Storm Warning from 7 am Wednesday to 11 am EDT Thursday