Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1018 PM EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Synopsis...
an upper level trough will approach late tonight...and
pass across the region Wednesday...bringing scattered to numerous
snow showers. Some lake effect snow showers and squalls will remain
possible through Thursday...along with colder temperatures.
Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills will follow in the wake
of an Arctic frontal passage late Friday into the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 930 PM EST...still following scattered snow showers
across the region mainly from the Mohawk Valley
across the upper Hudson region. Some new activity looking to
develop to our south.

All of this was associated with an approaching upper level
trough...spewing pieces of energy our way. The forcing is
relatively weak so we are not looking at anything other than
nuisance light with a few pockets of more moderate snow showing
up across the Mohawk Valley.

Expect scattered/occasional snow showers to continue throughout
the overnight as the upper low moves closer. A slightly
more significant disturbance might enhanced the activity
toward daybreak.

Either look for around an inch or snow of new snowfall in the
valley...perhaps 2-3 inches across the higher terrain of especially
the Adirondacks by Thursday.

Temperatures looks as if they have bottomed out for the night as we
undergo some warm air advection. Look for lows generally in the lower
to middle 20s valleys...closer to 20 higher terrain.

The wind will be light and variable overnight...becoming southerly
toward daybreak but generally below 10 miles per hour.

&&

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
Lake effect Snow Advisory in effect from noon EST Wednesday-6 PM EST
Thursday for Herkimer/Hamilton cos...

Wednesday...the aforementioned inverted trough/occluded front will
slowly move east across the region in the morning. A band of light
to moderate snow will likely precede and accompany this feature.
An additional inch will be possible in the morning for areas from
about the Hudson River west...with an additional 1-3 inches to the
east. It is possible that some locally higher amts occur across
portions of the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills...where a bit more
low level moisture may be infused into this system.

Then...after this boundary shifts east of the region by late
morning...the main upper level trough will swing east during the
afternoon. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold...with h500 temperatures
dropping to around or colder than -35 c. West winds in the wake of
the boundary will increase some low level moisture from the
lakes...and low/middle level lapse rates will become rather steep.
So...expect scattered to numerous snow showers and flurries to
develop in the afternoon...with a few embedded heavier squalls
possible...especially with some increased forcing from the passage of the
upper level feature. The snow showers/squalls may be more
persistent across upslope areas of the Berkshires...southern Vermont
and Litchfield Hills...where an additional 1-2 inches could occur
in some areas.

Also...with the remnant middle/upper level low tracking over the
region...northern areas may also become influenced by some middle
level deformation. This may enhance existing lake
enhanced/upslope snow showers/bands across northern Herkimer and
Hamilton cos in the afternoon...where 2-4 inches of snow could
occur. The lake effect Snow Advisory has been issued...and starts
noontime Wednesday to account for this initial hybrid
snowfall...before it transitions to more of a pure lake effect
event for Wednesday nt-Thu.

Maximum temperatures Thursday may actually briefly spike into the middle 30s in some
valley areas due to deep mixing in the wake of the morning
boundary...with mainly 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Winds will
become gusty at times in the afternoon from the west at 15-25
miles per hour...with some stronger gusts possible...especially with any snow
showers.

Wednesday nt-Thu...in the wake of the main upper level trough
passage...a cold northwest low level flow will dominate. It
appears that a lake effect snowband may be ongoing across northern
Herkimer and Hamilton cos Wednesday evening...before settling southward
into central/southern Herkimer Colorado...and SW Hamilton Colorado later at
night into Thursday. Total snowfall accums by late Thursday in the
advisory area should range from 4-8 inches over a 36+ hour
period...with the greatest amts across central Herkimer Colorado.
Elsewhere...some scattered snow showers will remain possible Wednesday
nt into Thursday...with the possibility of some filaments breaking off
the Main Lake effect snowband into the central/eastern Mohawk
Valley...capital region...Schoharie valley and Berkshires. In
these areas...additional coatings to 2 inches possible in some of
these areas.

Thursday nt-Fri...lake effect snow should become multiband and shift to
our west as the low level flow veers Thursday nt. Then on Friday...winds
will be backing in advance of an approaching Arctic front.
So...snow showers will increase once again from northwest to southeast late Friday.
It will already be cold...with Thursday nt/Friday am mins falling into the
single digits above zero for most areas...except zero to 5 below
across the Adirondacks. Wind chill values could approach advisory
levels in portions of the Adirondacks toward daybreak Friday. Then
on Friday...expect maximum temperatures to reach the 20s for most lower
elevations...and teens across higher terrain...coldest across the
western Adirondacks.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
the extended starts out with coldest air mass of the winter
season working over the region Friday night via a strong
cold front. This feature could trigger localized snow
squalls...mainly from the capital region northward.

Lows will be in the teens from the capital region southward...
single numbers most northern areas...with some below zero readings
across the Adirondacks.

The European model has been most bullish with the cold...indicating
-30c air reaching into the capital region by Saturday!

Saturday will be a windy and bitterly cold day. Any snow
showers should be confined to the higher terrain west of the Hudson Valley.
Otherwise it will be partly sunny with temperatures not rising much
(if at all) across the region. Highs will range around zero across
the Adirondack park...single numbers most other
elevated areas...10-15 Albany southward.

The wind will likely make it feel quite a bit colder...with wind chills
below zero everywhere...into the potentially dangerous zone (lower than -30)
across much of our elevated region.

Saturday night will be clear to partly cloudy and even colder. Lows
will look to be below zero most everywhere...0 to 10 below
Albany southward...10 to 20 below north and west of the capital region.
The wind will abate some...but strong enough of a breeze to produce
dangerous wind chills across most areas.

Sunday will be mostly sunny...less breezy but still very cold. High temperatures
will be similar to Saturday.

As Arctic high pressure moves east on Sunday night...a southerly flow
will allow the frigid air mass to begin to moderate Sunday night and especially
Monday. Moisture will increase as well which could lead to some snow showers
by late Monday.

&&

Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
nuisance snow showers will impact mainly the kalb/kpsf this evening...
but kgfl and even kpou could be as well.

Based on radar at 0315z...we removed any IFR for now. However...it
is still possible it could briefly happen overnight but not
likely. Look for occasional MVFR ceilings and perhaps snow showers
(3 sm). The wind will be light.

A cold/occluded front will cross the taf sites later on Thursday
(well after the morning peak). It will shift the wind to the west
around 10kts and perhaps bring a few more snow showers.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy scattered shsn.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 31.0 scattered shsn.
Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig weather.
Friday: low operational impact. Isolated shsn.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Hydrology...
tidal issues along the Atlantic Seaboard are resulting in higher
than normal tides up the Hudson River. It appears Poughkeepsie
will experience tidal impacts which may persist the next couple of
days. Otherwise...no other hydrological issues are expected at
this time.

With an approaching upper level trough...some snow showers and
flurries are possible through Thursday. Total liquid equivalent
will be very light...generally less than a tenth of an inch at any
one location...perhaps a bit higher across the western
Adirondacks.

With colder temperatures arriving by later in the week and the
upcoming weekend...ice cover on rivers and lakes will increase in
coverage and thickness. Temperatures should be remain completely
below freezing from Wednesday night through the rest of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Climate...
bitterly cold over the weekend with below zero lows expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning across east central New York and
western New England.

The last time temperatures were below zero was:

Albany ny: -9 degrees on February 24, 2015
note: the low on March 6, 2015 was zero degrees

Glens Falls ny: -15 degrees on March 6, 2015
Poughkeepsie ny: -2 degrees on March 6, 2015
Bennington vt: -11 degrees on March 6, 2015
Pittsfield ma: -4 degrees on March 7, 2015

February 13th...record low maximum temperatures...
albany: 8 degrees set in 1899
glens falls: 4 degrees set in 1979
poughkeepsie: 13 degrees set in 1979

February 14th...record lows...
albany: -10 degrees set in 1987
glens falls: -24 degrees set in 2003
poughkeepsie: -14 degrees set in 1979

February 14th...record low maximum temperatures...
albany: 4 degrees set in 1916
glens falls: 4 degrees set in 1987
poughkeepsie: 15 degrees set in 1979

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 PM EST
Thursday for nyz032-033-038.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis/hwjiv/kl
near term...hwjiv/kl
short term...kl
long term...hwjiv
aviation...hwjiv
hydrology...frugis/kl
climate...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations