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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
447 am EST Friday Dec 19 2014

the area of low pressure that has been dominating our weather
recently will finally move northeastward away from the region today.
High pressure will build in from the west and will move over the
region over the weekend with mainly fair weather expected.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the vertical stacked low located over the Canadian Maritimes is
still dominating our weather. It will finally move away from the
region today with ridging beginning to build in from the west at the
surface. Heights aloft will rise today especially this afternoon as
the trough axis moves eastward. Some sunshine is expected this
afternoon across much of the forecast area today. However the
northwesterly low level flow will pick moisture up from Lake
Ontario maintaining the cloud cover into the western portions of
the forecast area. Also with that comes the threat/chance for some
light snow showers and freezing drizzle into the western Mohawk
Valley...Schoharie valley and eastern Catskills mainly this
morning. Temperatures will not rise much today.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
ridging builds in at the surface and aloft. The low level flow
shifts to the north and we lose moisture from Lake Ontario. Will
have decreasing cloud cover and diminishing winds setting the stage
for a cold night with temperatures dropping mainly into the lower
teens to lower 20s.

Expecting sunshine on Saturday with ridging dominating our weather.
Unfortunately cloud cover will be back on the increase Saturday
night and remain high Sunday as the upper ridge weakens and a weak
short wave trough approaches and crosses the region Sunday. Have
a slight chance for very light snow and rain in the forecast for
Sunday for areas mainly to the east of the Hudson River valley as
low level moisture off the ocean increases as the short wave moves
through. Seasonable temperatures are expected both Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday night heights rise aloft as ridging reestablishes
itself resulting in the surface high strengthening some. Cloud
cover is expected to decrease.


Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
an active weather pattern is setting up for the long term period.

At 500 hpa...strong ridging will be developing just off the eastern
Seaboard...while a deep trough begins to develop and strengthen over
the central portion of the US. This will place our region in a broad
SW flow aloft...allowing milder air to work its way into our area. A
weak disturbance within the southern stream will be moving up the
middle Atlantic coast and off into the Atlantic for late Monday through
Tuesday. The models Don/T show a lot of quantitative precipitation forecast in our area with this forcing will remain weak and mainly south of the area.
Still...with an onshore possible for a period of light
snow or rain/snow mix for late Monday into Monday night...which will
transition into a light rain everywhere by Tuesday morning. Any snow
accumulation will be very minor...and generally confined to the
higher elevations. Both the surface and aloft temperatures look to warm up at
the same p-type should transition from just snow to rain.
However...if surface temperatures were to remain colder for a longer period of
time...there could be a brief period of freezing rain as well. Temperatures
look to be in the 30s on Monday...and then hold steady or slightly
rise for Monday night into Tuesday.

The bigger weather impact will occur for Wednesday /Christmas
eve/ the deepening trough takes on negative tilt...and surface
low pressure rapidly develops along an occluded/S fronts triple
point. This low looks to lift from the middle Atlantic towards upstate
New York and then back northwestward towards Ontario for Wednesday into Wednesday
night. The models are showing this system to become quite
deep...perhaps even lower than 980 hpa by Wednesday night. As a
result...we can expect a period of rain showers everywhere ahead of
the low and associated frontal boundary...along with gusty
winds...especially for the high terrain areas. Rain could be heavy just
ahead of the there is the potential for a narrow cold
frontal rain band to develop. With a strong southerly flow ahead of
this system...temperatures will be very warm for late December...with temperatures
into the 40s to low 50s. We will have to monitor for locally heavy
rain well as gusty winds...and will continue to
headline this storm in our severe weather potential statement statement.

Colder air will work into the region behind the storm for late
Wednesday night into Thursday...but by that point most of the precipitation
will be done. There may be some lingering rain or snow showers
across far northern areas for late Wednesday night into Christmas day.
Temperatures look seasonable for Christmas day with highs in the 30s to
near 40...although gusty west to northwest winds will be in place
behind the storm.


Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
an upper level trough is located just east of the region over
eastern New England. Cyclonic flow around this system is keeping
plenty of moisture and clouds in place with broken-overcast ceilings at around
3500-4500 feet for all terminals.

Although no precipitation is expected through the remainder of the
overnight hours...these low clouds look to remain in place. Ceilings may
even lower to high end MVFR conditions around 3 kft by around
sunrise. They should remain above IFR thresholds...and no precipitation
should occur.

These low clouds look to remain in place through the morning hours.
There may be a brief return to VFR ceilings for the valley sites in the
afternoon...but lingering low level moisture will allow for ceilings to lower
back down to MVFR levels for tonight.

West-northwest winds of around 10 kts will continue through the remainder of
the overnight hours. There may be a few higher gusts at times...especially
for kalb/kpsf. Winds will continue at similar speeds for during the
day today...before lowering to around 5 kts for tonight.


Saturday through Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain.


no hydrologic issues anticipated into early next week as any
precipitation expected will be light. However...a widespread
rainfall is expected Wednesday/Christmas evening as a large low
pressure system moves across the region. Rainfall amounts are
highly uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...iaa
short term...iaa
long term...frugis

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