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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING 
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON 
SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 744 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE
REGION...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHERN AREAS TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...AS THE DISTURBANCE STARTS TO APPROACH THE
REGION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EVEN INCREASE IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR VALLEY AREAS WHILE THE
CLOUD COVER IN ABSENT OR THIN...BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE.

WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS RECENT
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO
THE LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO "RULE THE ROOST" FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS TO COME. INITIALLY STRONGER AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL ULTIMATELY 
STRENGTHEN ALOFT AS WELL AS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. 

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF ULTIMATELY MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MORE HUMID AIR...A WARM FRONT...
WILL ADVANCE TO OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND TEND TO WASH OUT. STILL...
THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL (MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND). SUNDAY COULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO (NOT IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME).

WE THINK SOME SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN 
ANY SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE A BEARING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EITHER
WAY... IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
UP INTO THE LOWER END OF THE 60S...EXCEPT EVEN HIGHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED WE LEANED WITH THE
WARM MAV GUIDANCE GIVING US HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE SBCAPES COULD REACH 500 J/KG. ALSO THERE WILL BE SOME 
SORT OF BOUNDARY (DISSIPATING WARM FRONT) TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THE ABOVE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS 
ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO RE-INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSES RATE LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM) AND THE WIND FIELD WEAK SO 
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (OR EVEN STRONG FOR THAT MATTER) EXPECTED. 

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S...WARMEST IN THE CAPITAL REGION. SINCE THERE LOOK TO BE LESS CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND...FOG MIGHT BE A BETTER BET. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
JUST KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.

MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...SCATTERED MIDDAY 
AND AFTERNOON CU. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +16C TRANSLATING HIGHS  
INTO THE 80S (UPPER 80S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD IN THE VALLEYS).
A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SKY WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FOG (NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT THROUGH THE 
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 850 HPA AROUND 16-19 DEGREES C 
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S 
EVEN POSSIBLE FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL 
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE 
FAIRLY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE IN 
PLACE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR THE 
ADIRONDACKS FOR WED AFTN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE 
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL 
PROBABLY BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT...BUT 
IT COULD PUSH A BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FROM 
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO ALLOW A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO 
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM 
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S EACH DAY...AND 
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH TEMPS 
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VALLEY HIGH 
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NO 
PRECIP EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY VARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH CIGS BKN-OVC
AT KGFL DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE SKIES ARE
NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DECREASED...AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FOR ALL
SITES TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH
CALM WINDS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS KPSF...WHERE CLOUD COVER WON/T
INCREASE FULLY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. 

ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM OCCURRING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
CONDITIONS ISN/T EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
BKN CIGS AT 15-20 KFT.

BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY AFTN.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALOFT...DOMINANTS
OUR WEATHER. 

IN FACT...NOTHING MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THIS WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS REGARDING THE RH...WITH FULL OR NEARLY
FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED EACH OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WIND EACH DAY WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

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