Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
151 am EDT sun may 24 2015

Synopsis...
another cool morning is expected...but not as cold as
yesterday. High pressure will move offshore today. A southwest flow
will allow for warmer temperatures today and Memorial Day. In
addition...increasing humidity levels will create more cloud
coverage and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm beginning on
Memorial Day.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 138 am EDT...surface high pressure has moved S/southeast of Long
Island and the southern New England coastline. A weak warm front is
grazing northern New York and northern Vermont. Some middle and high clouds have moved in
the northern portions of the forecast area...mainly north of the I-90
corridor. The light to calm winds with the mostly clear skies from
the capital region south and east have allowed some radiational
cooling...and temperatures have fallen in the u30s to around 50f. The
cooler spots are south of the clouds...in the Berkshires and
Taconics. A light S/southeast breeze has already begun in the capital
region...as the warm advection continues in the low to middle levels.

Expect lows in the u30s to m40s across the forecast area with fair and
dry conditions this morning.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through Monday night/...
Sunday...another nice day is expected as the upper trough axis
slides east of the New England coast with middle level ridge
beginning to strengthen over the East Coast as low and middle level
heights will be increasing over the eastern Great Lakes into upstate
New York. The boundary layer winds will shift to the S to SW which will
enhance downsloping coinciding with h850 temperatures rise close to +10c.
This should allow temperatures to rise to slightly above normal readings
with highs in the middle to u70s in the valley locations /touching
80f in valley spots/...and m60s to l70s over the higher terrain.

Sunday night...NCEP model suite and reflectivity forecasts suggest
an elevated convective complex evolves across the Great Lakes
region. This will signify a return of warmer and more humid
airmass overnight with the approach/passage of a warm front. We
will continue with the chance for mainly showers north and west
of Albany as showalters remain rather positive.
Otherwise...considerable cloud cover and convective debris cloud
coverage is expected across the region with a much milder night
expected with mainly 50s expected.

Memorial Day-Monday night...the warm front is forecast to be lifting
north of northern New York and New England during the late morning and
afternoon. Most of the southern half of the County warning forecast area could be
dry...with chance-scattered probability of precipitation for convection closer to boundary in the
southern dacks...Lake George area...and into southern Vermont late in the day.
Humidity levels will start to increase during the afternoon. More
clouds than sunshine is expected or mostly cloudy conditions look
to prevail at this time during the afternoon...high temperatures were
favored closer to the gfsmos with u70s to l80s in the valley
areas...and 70s over the higher terrain. A weak disturbance in the
west/SW flow may focus isolated-scattered showers mainly north of the capital
region and Berkshires once again Monday night. Showalter values
fall close to 0c...but a slight chance of thunder was used mainly
into the evening hours. Lows will be even milder than previous
nights with u50s to l60s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
a warm and muggy pattern will be in place during the entire upcoming
week.

At the start of the extended period...strong ridging will be
established along the eastern Seaboard...although these heights will
lower somewhat towards the end of the week...a storm system tries to
make the upper flow aloft a little more zonal.

With our region on the northwestern fringe of the strong ridging on
Tuesday...some isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible for
Tuesday...mainly for the afternoon/evening and for areas north and west of
Albany. Coverage won't be too high...as the best surface forcing will
remain well off to the west. With 850 hpa temperatures around 14-15 degrees
c...maximum temperatures look to reach the middle 80s in many spots...and a few
upper 80s are even possible thanks to local downsloping effects. It
will feel a little on muggy side with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Mins will only fall into the 60s for Tuesday night...with some spots
only falling into the upper 60s. There still may be a shower around
overnight as well.

There will be a better chance for showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday
into Thursday...as a slow moving surface frontal boundary approaches
from the west. With more coverage of showers/storms around...there
will be a few more clouds...so despite very warm 850 hpa temperatures...maximum
temperatures may be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday for Wednesday and
Thursday...with highs mainly in the middle 80s for valley areas. Lows
will continue to be warm and muggy...generally in the middle 60s or
warmer. There is the potential for warmer temperatures if coverage of
clouds/precipitation is lower than currently anticipated.

Precipitable waters will likely be greater than 1.50 inches...so any thunderstorm
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. It/S a little too
early to speculate on the potential for any severe weather...as this will
ultimately depend on the timing of the frontal boundary and the
amount of instability present...but it will be something to
watch...as the last few days of may are the climatological favored
time for severe storms in eastern New York and western New England.

It/S still unclear exactly when the front will push through our
area...if at all. The 12z GFS has this happen over the weekend...but
the 12z European model (ecmwf) keeps the front to our north and west...and it
eventually washed out or stalls near US and then lifts away...as the
best upper level forcing slides across Canada. For now...will
continue to go with a chance for showers/thunderstorms through
Saturday...and temperatures above normal.

&&

Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
Fr conditions through the taf period...06z/Monday as high pressure
dominates.

Some middle level clouds will impact the northern portion of the local
area...kgfl...early this morning as a warm front passes to our north.
Otherwise...heights rise aloft today as ridging builds in. At the
surface...high pressure centered off the middle Atlantic will gradually
drift eastward while maintaining a hold on the eastern Seaboard.
Mainly clear skies today...however high level cirrus clouds and some
middle level clouds will spill over the upper ridge as a piece energy
rides over the top.

Light south to calm winds through the early morning. South to southwest
flow will increase after sunrise and is expected to become gusty by
afternoon with gusts into the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds will
weaken this evening.

Outlook...
sun night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Memorial Day-Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tue: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday-Thu: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
low relative humidity values of 15 to 30 percent again Sunday
afternoon...
high Haines index expected Sunday afternoon...

Per request of the New England fire liaison contact points...a
Special Weather Statement has been issued to reflect "elevated"
risk of erratic fire behavior.

Eastern New York and western New England have greened up or leafed
out...and the keetch-Byram drought index plays an important role
in determining whether or not we have a "critical" fire day. The
current values are just below 300...so no headlines or statements
were requested in east central New York at this time.

The relative humidity values will increase to 60 to 95 percent tonight. Expect
the relative humidity values to lower to 20 to 35 percent Sunday afternoon.

The winds will be from the west to northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour
into this evening...with some gusts to 25 miles per hour early. The winds
will become light to calm tonight...then increase from the south
to southwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour on Sunday.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems expected over the next 5 days...with river levels
holding or falling through the period.

Mainly dry conditions will persist into Memorial Day. A slight
chance to chance for showers and thunderstorms will return by late
Memorial Day afternoon into Tuesday...especially north and west of
the capital region. Any rainfall is much needed due to the recent
dry conditions. The U.S. Drought monitor has now included much of
eastern New York and western New England in the d1 category...which is
considered moderate drought.

The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the middle week in the more humid air mass.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...hwjiv/bgm/wasula
near term...hwjiv/bgm/wasula
short term...bgm/wasula
long term...frugis
aviation...iaa
fire weather...bgm/wasula
hydrology...bgm/wasula

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations