Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1026 am EDT Monday Sep 22 2014
cooler and brisk conditions will return for today in the
wake of a frontal passage and upper level disturbance. High pressure
will then remain in control for the rest of the week...with
seasonable temperatures for midweek warming to above normal by the
end of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1025 am EDT...clouds are continuing to build across
much of the forecast area...although some downsloping is occurring in the
Hudson Valley where skies remain generally clear. Some sprinkles
are noted in radar across portions of the western
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley and Catskills.
Over the next several hours...as the upper level trough/cold
pool...and another surface trough pivot east toward the region...we
expect the coverage of clouds to continue expanding. In
addition...scattered light showers/sprinkles should persist across
the western Adirondacks...with isolated to scattered
showers/sprinkles possibly developing further S and east into the
Mohawk and upper Hudson valleys...and southern Vermont shortly after
daybreak. Showers or sprinkles should become more confined to
higher terrain across the north country and southern Vermont for this
afternoon in the wake of the trough passage.
Winds will be quite brisk from the west to northwest...with some gusts of
25-35 miles per hour possible...especially in areas within and adjacent to the
Mohawk River valley/capital region and Berkshires.
Temperatures will be quite tricky...as strong low level cold advection
would support temperatures to hold steady...or slowly fall from this
morning/S levels. However...will indicate a small rise in temperatures
during the late morning/midday hours...before slowly falling this
afternoon. Have indicated a general blend of the mav/met
MOS...with maxes generally within a few degrees either side of 60
in most valleys...except for middle/upper 60s across the middle Hudson
Valley and lower elevations in northwest CT...where more sunshine...and
downsloping off the Catskills should promote additional warming.
Across higher elevations...most maximum temperatures will only reach the
50s...with perhaps some 40s across the higher terrain across the
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
tonight...the combination of some wind...and the possibility of at
least patchy clouds should limit the frost potential for
tonight...with most min temperatures only falling into the upper 30s to
Tuesday...a weakening upper level disturbance passing southeast on the
west side of the departing upper level trough may allow for a
period of clouds during Tuesday afternoon...especially for areas north and west of
Albany. A few sprinkles will even be possible across portions of
the southern Adirondacks. Otherwise...expect maximum temperatures to reach
65-70 in valleys and 50s across higher elevations.
Tuesday nt-Wednesday nt...high pressure will build across the region...with
the low level air mass gradually moderating. Expect min temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to middle 40s both nights...with daytime maximum
temperatures Wednesday reaching the middle 60s to around 70 in valleys...and upper
50s to lower 60s across higher elevations. There could be some
valley fog developing late each night...and with very light
boundary layer winds...could take some time to burn off Wednesday am in
the deepest valleys...with some low stratus possibly lingering in
some areas until middle to late morning.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
quiet and dry weather is expected through the period. There are
some hints of a coastal system Thursday...with the northern edge of
some clouds perhaps approaching the middle Hudson Valley and northwest
CT...but not much. Otherwise...high pressure and upper ridging
gradually build in from the west through period.
Temperatures also slowly warm through the period. Highs Thursday
should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs Friday are expected
to be in the middle to upper 70s...around 70 in higher elevations.
Temperatures warming one or two more degrees Saturday and again
Sunday...when highs should be around 80...cooler in higher
Aviation /15z Monday through Friday/...
the leading edge of the colder air behind the cold front is
spreading into eastern New York and ceilings have fallen into the MVFR
range just west of the taf sites. There could be a few sprinkles
this morning as well...but not enough to include vcsh anywhere.
So... these lower ceilings should spread across our region...for
intervals of MVFR ceilings through about 15z. Ceilings are expected
to gradually lift to above 3000 feet late this morning and then
gradually decrease in coverage. By late afternoon and evening...
only scattered clouds...with sky clear during the evening and night.
Winds will be west to northwest and increase to around 15kt by middle
morning. Winds should be gusty through the afternoon...gusting to
around 25 knots at times...then diminishing slowly through tomorrow
evening. Winds should just be light and variable by midnight and
through the early morning hours.
Tuesday to friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
gusty west to northwest winds of 25-35 miles per hour today...
Strong low pressure will lift northeast of the region today...as
high pressure builds in from the west. This will produce a tight
pressure gradient across the region...leading to gusty winds.
Relative humidity values will fall into the 45-55 percent range in valleys...and
55-70 percent range across higher elevations for this
afternoon...before recovering to 90-100 percent with some dew
formation possible toward daybreak. Relative humidity values should drop to 40-50
percent in valleys...and 50-70 percent across higher elevations
for Tuesday afternoon.
West to northwest winds will average 15-25 miles per hour...with gusts of 30-35 miles per hour
possible at times today. West/northwest winds will gradually diminish to
5-15 miles per hour late tonight...then increase to 10-20 miles per hour Tuesday.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through this week.
A cold front will moved across the region last evening...with only
scattered...light rainfall amts of generally under one tenth of an
inch...although locally higher amts occurred across portions of
the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. These amts will have
negligible effects on area rivers/streams.
A return to dry weather is expected for most of the upcoming week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.