Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
941 PM EST sun Feb 7 2016
a cold front will linger across eastern New York and New
England overnight. A coastal storm will pass well to our south
Monday...bringing snow to New England...and just glancing our
region. Late Monday into Thursday a large upper level disturbance
will settle into the Great Lakes region. A period of typical
February weather will commence with cloudy...and cold conditions
with periods of light snow and snow showers for several days.
Near term /through Monday/...
as of 940 PM EST...a cold front continues to move southward
across east-central New York and New England. High pressure will
attempt to build in from southeast Quebec. High clouds are quickly
increasing associated with the large coastal cyclone near coastal
NC. Skycover was adjusted for the increasing clouds. Clouds will
be thickening and lowering south of the capital region and
Berkshires. The latest hrrr and nam12 trends are to slow down the
light snowfall associated with the isentropic lift well in advance
of the coastal wave...that will pass south and east of the forecast
area. The probability of precipitation were reduced across northwest CT and the southern Berks until
12z-15z/Mon. Expect a cold and dry overnight periods with lows in
the upper teens to middle 20s over the higher terrain...and mainly
middle and u20s in the valley areas...except the CT River Valley east
of the southern greens where some lower 20s are possible.
Monday presents a tricky forecast as the weak cold front washes
out across the forecast area...as a coastal low tracks northeast
from well east of Cape Hatteras to southeast of Nova Scotia. The
northwest fringe of this system will impact far southeast portions
of the forecast area where 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected...except over
southern Litchfield CT where 2-4 inches is possible...especially south
of the Litchfield Hills. Across the remainder of the forecast area
clouds will increase as the forecast area will mainly be sandwiched
between exiting coastal low and clipper type system approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes region. Expect highs on Monday to be
in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
at 500 hpa a large lumbering cut off low over the Great Lakes
will drift slowly east becoming a deep trough over eastern Canada
and the USA by periods end. A series of short waves will drop
into it...resulting in its slow eastward drift.
The combination of the large cut off...short waves rotating around
it...a northwest-southeast surface trough from cle to ric pivoting slowly NE...will
result in periods of -sn...-snsh for much of the period. The
general weak upper flow and lack of moisture will keep amounts light
with at most a few inches total over the period.
By Wednesday nt the system will transition. The 500 hpa cut off will
open to a sharp trough that moves into the east Great Lakes. An east-west cold front
will drop south through the region acting as a focus for
organizing les...and cold air advection from an increasing northwest flow will enhance snsn
over higher terrain. Temperatures during this period should remain near to
slightly above normal during.
While the models are in good agreement on the big picture...actual
timing of lt snow...-shsn varies as its tied to varying timing of
short waves. So forecast will will carry hi chance -snsh much of this
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday the 500 hpa trough axis moves through the region and flattens.
In its wake a brisk north flow...between an Arctic high in the upper
Great Plains and deepening coastal low in Maritimes will result in strong
cold air advection. Scattered -shsn will still be a concern...but they will be mainly
les with less than an optimal trajectory across lake ont...and north-northwest
flow over hir terrain.
Thursday nt thermal trough sets up over north Great Lakes...and as the next cold
airmass over ont/qb pushes south evolves into another east-west
cold front...and a very enhanced les response by Friday along the front in
west and central New York state. By end of the period trough sharpens and cold front mvs
south of region...and strong cold air advection is in place...as les breaks down Sat
in our fca. Wind and cold Friday nt to periods end may result in
wind chill issues.
Temperatures will go off The Cliff in this period becoming 10-15 degree below
normal. Winter cold will be here by late in the week.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
a weak cold front continues to drift south to southeast across
eastern New York and western New England tonight. High pressure will
briefly build in. However...clouds will continue to increase from
the south by middle to late morning. Some light snow is possible from
the Hudson River valley eastward into western New England by the
afternoon north and west of a coastal system.
Conditions will begin VFR at kgfl/kalb/kpsf/kpou prior to 12z/Mon.
Middle and high clouds will increase. Some low stratus is possible
especially near kpsf by 12z in the high MVFR range. Light snow is
expected to move into kpsf-kpou between 17z-19z...when MVFR
visibilities/ceilings possible. The light snow will overspread kalb-kgfl
later in the afternoon...in the 21z/Mon-00z/Tue time frame...and
vcsh groups were used at kgfl...and potentially some MVFR visibilities at
kalb with light snow at 22z/Mon.
The winds will initially be light from the north and variable
direction at 6 kts until the early to middle morning when north to
northeast winds will increase at 5-10 kts. Expect north to NE winds to
continue through the afternoon.
Monday nt to Wednesday nt: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Thursday: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shsn.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
no significant Hydro concerns expected over the next 7 days as
any precipitation will be light in the form of snow.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on