Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
715 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
high pressure will continue to ridge in from off the middle
Atlantic coast through Monday...providing partly to mostly sunny
conditions and above normal temperatures. A cold front approaching
from the eastern Great Lakes region and Saint Lawrence valley Monday
night into Tuesday will bring scattered showers to the region.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 715 PM EDT...the isolated showers/sprinkles are rapidly
decreasing across the aly forecast area. The kenx radar shows a few
light showers getting ready to exit the Berkshires and eastern Windham
city Vermont. The loss of the diurnal heating will allow for the
atmosphere to stabilize...and the skies will gradually clear. The
slight chance probability of precipitation are removed prior to 00z.
Expect the skies will clear early this evening with the surface high
remaining near/of just off the the middle Atlantic coast. The mainly
clear skies and light to calm winds will allow good radiational
cooling. Lows overnight will generally be in the 40s to around
50f across the forecast area.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
for Monday expect a mainly sunny start to the day with some
increasing high clouds later in the day from northwest to
southeast ahead of a cold front which is expected to drop slowly
southeast from Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence valley late in the
day. It will be a mild day with a south to southwesterly flow with
wind gusts 15 to 25 miles per hour. Highs on Monday are expected to range
from the middle 70s to middle 80s.
Monday night into Tuesday the cold front will drop southeast from
the Saint Lawrence valley Monday evening into the central portion
of our forecast area by Tuesday morning and then off the southern New England
coast by late Tuesday. Expect scattered to numerous showers ahead
of the cold front with the greatest likelihood of showers ahead
of the cold front across the northwest portion of the forecast area. Have not
placed any thunder in the forecast as the mlmucapes are only a few
hundred j/kg at most and the showalter indices remain positive
during the period of precipitation across our forecast area. Expect lows
Monday night to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on
Tuesday in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Other than a lingering shower or two across the southeast portion
of the forecast area Tuesday evening...expect Tuesday night and Wednesday
to return to dry conditions as high pressure builds into the
northeast from the upper Great Lakes and southern Canada. Expect
lows Tuesday night to be in the middle 30s to lower 50s with highs on
Wednesday in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
the period transitions from dry to showery...with well above normal
temperatures. High pressure gradually breaks down...and a warm
front lifts across our forecast area dry Friday night. The influx
of moisture will be limited...thus some southern zones may not see
any precipitation during this period. The closing in proximity of a
cold front from the northwest will...however...increase probability of precipitation...
bringing US our greatest chances for showery wetting on Sunday.
Convective available potential energy and other indices are too weak to support thunderstorm
Daytime high temperatures through the period will average from
around 70 to around 80 degrees. Lows start out Wednesday night
mostly in the 40s...then /mild up/ into the middle and upper 50s by
Friday and Saturday nights. Normal highs for Albany during this
period are in the upper 60s...with lows in the middle 40s.
Aviation /23z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the kgfl/kalb/kpou/kpsf
taf sites through the 24 hour taf period ending at 18z Monday. A
ridge of high pressure will build in from the west across our
region today. Daytime heating is resulting in scattered-broken cumulus in the VFR
range (6000-8000 feet) across the region for the rest of this
afternoon...along with isolated rain showers. Have generally left
out the mention on rain showers at the taf sites with the exception
of kgfl where vcsh has been included. Expect the cumulus and any showers
to dissipate around or shortly after sunset. Mainly clear skies
tonight...followed by scattered cumulus forming again late Monday morning.
Winds will be westerly at 5 to 10 kts...with some gusts to around
15 kts. The exception will be kgfl where the winds will be
southerly. After sunset winds will quickly become calm or light
and variable. On Monday winds will become south to southwest at 6
to 10 kts with gusts of around 15 kts.
Monday night-tuesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers.
Wednesday-Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of eastern New
York...western Massachusetts and northwest Connecticut from noon
until 8 PM on Monday. Localized fire weather concerns are in place
across southern Vermont Monday afternoon.
Dry weather will hold through Monday with high pressure mainly in
control. It has been more than a week since our region has
received significant rainfall. No locations have reached a quarter
of an inch of rain in the past 5 days.
Relative humidity values should recover to 80-100 percent range tonight with
some dew formation. Relative humidity values on Monday afternoon are expected to
drop to 25 to 35 percent in most areas. Some much needed rainfall
is expected Monday night into Tuesday but all areas may not
receive a quarter of an inch.
South to southwest winds at 10 miles per hour or less are expected tonight.
The winds will increase from the south to southwest Monday at 1o
to 20 miles per hour with some gusts to 25 to 30 miles per hour. The south to southwest
winds should diminish Monday night to 15 miles per hour or less.
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days
It looks mainly dry through Monday which will allow rivers and
streams to lower further...especially from Albany southward as
vegetation is beginning to bloom. A few showers may reach the
Adirondacks Monday evening with light precipitation.
The next chance of showers of fairly widespread showers will be
Monday night into Tuesday with a slow moving cold front. Most
areas should see around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our web site.
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for ctz001-013.
New York...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
Massachusetts...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for maz001-025.