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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
951 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

a cold front will move across the region overnight...preceded by
much warmer than normal temperatures and some showers. Behind the
front...a seasonably cold air mass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
mild/warm temperatures across the area from the upper 40s to upper
50s. Clouds are lowering with rain showers occurring across portions
of central New York and into the western Adirondacks. The rain
showers will move across the area as a cold front gradually crosses
the area overnight. The showers will be most numerous from the
Adirondacks to the Lake George Saratoga region and the Mohawk
Valley during the first half of the night...and have forecast
likely or higher probability of precipitation in those areas. The showers will tend to
fall apart during the night as dynamic support have
only forecast chance probability of precipitation for the rest of the region.

Much colder air...compared to Friday..will move in behind the
front...and if the showers linger long enough over the
Adirondacks...they may change to snow showers for a brief period.

Made some adjustments to the temperatures using observational
data and trends. Did increase them a bit across the southern
portion of the forecast area. Expecting lows to range from the
upper 20s across a portion of the southern Adirondacks to the
middle/upper 40s in areas to the southeast of the capital district.

Friday November 27th...

Record high set at Poughkeepsie today with a high of 66
degrees...old record 63 in 2006.

Record high tied at Glens Falls today with a high of 61
degrees...previous record was set in 1976.

Albany missed its record high by 2 degrees with a high of 64
degrees today. However it is the third warmest high for November
27th. It was 66 degrees in 1896 and 65 degrees in 1887.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
there continues to be some disagreements in the model solutions as
to how quickly or slowly the cold front sinks south through the
region and how soon any lingering showers end on Saturday.
Considering how strong the ridging is over the Atlantic...and the
current slow progress of northern stream upper dynamics in
Canada...will acknowledge the potential for clouds and showers to
linger into Saturday afternoon over the lower half of the forecast
area. Slow clearing is expected over the northern half. Cold
advection will not be too strong Saturday with high pressure
building in from well west of our region. Highs will be in the
upper 30s to around 50.

Weak high pressure controls our weather Saturday night with a
mainly clear sky...with some lingering clouds decreasing in
coverage in the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT early at night. Light
winds and the clearing sky should support temperatures falling to
between around 20 and 30.

A reinforcing shot of colder air arrives Sunday with a dry cold
frontal passage and high pressure building in from Canada. Mean
upper trough axis not highly amplified so the core of coldest air
should stay north of our region. Highs Sunday will be in the middle
30s to the 40s. Lows Sunday night in the upper teens and 20s.


Long term /Monday through Friday/...
the extended forecast opens with fair and dry weather...but a period
of unsettled weather returns for Tuesday into the middle week with an
upper level trough impacting the region.

Monday...high pressure builds in from southeast Quebec across New York and New
England with fair...dry...and seasonably cold weather. H850 temperatures
will generally be in the -3c to -5c range in the early afternoon
according to the GFS with limited mixing. Highs will be seasonable
for the last day of November with u30s to l40s for the valley
areas...and middle and u30s over the mountains

Monday night into Tuesday...a strong upper level trough continues to
move from the northern plains into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes
region Monday night. The surface cyclone reaches the Minnesota/WI corridor by
Tuesday morning. The surface anticyclone near New York and New England moves
offshore Monday night with a return flow of slightly milder air. The
warm front associated with the upstream cyclone moves towards New York and
PA. The medium range guidance is still showing some discrepancies
with the timing of the warm advection precipitation associated with the warm
front. The European model (ecmwf) is slightly faster than the GFS and the can ggem
now. We have kept a slight chance of snow showers in the forecast for
locations south and west of the capital region/the Hudson River
valley. This precipitation may hold off until later in the morning. Lows
may occur prior to midnight...and then slightly rise towards
daybreak with middle 20s to l30s for mins. Middle and upper level
diffluence sets up over New York and New England...and the isentropic lift
strengthens from the west/SW to east/NE across the forecast area on the 295k
surface for a period of showers for the afternoon. The higher probability of precipitation were
kept west of the Hudson River valley prior to 00z/Wednesday with high chance
and likely values...and lower chance values to the east. High temperatures
will generally range from the lower to m40s over in the lower
elevations...and u30s to l40s over the mountains there maybe a brief
period of snow showers/light snow over the southern dacks before a
transition to rainfall.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...low pressure continues to slowly lift north/NE into
the northern Great Lakes region/southern Ontario. The h500 low closes off.
The warm front to the system slowly lifts north/NE across eastern New York and New
England for a period of likely stratiform rain or showers. The cold
front or the systems triple point moves over central New York by day break.
This could be the regions first widespread rainfall in over a week
plus. A S/SW h850 40-50 knots low level jet jet will tap some Gulf moisture...and
most locations could receive a quarter to half inch of rainfall Tuesday
night. Colder air may infiltrate from the west/northwest for a transition to
snowfall over the southern dacks Wednesday morning for some light accums. High
chance probability of precipitation were maintained Wednesday for the passage of the first cold
front. Most of the forecast area may get into a brief warm sector.
Likely values were used along the westerly upslope portions of the
western dacks and southern greens. Lows Tuesday night range from the m30s over
the southern dacks to l40s over the middle Hudson Valley/northwest CT. Highs on
Wednesday are expected to to in the middle and u40s in the valley
areas...expect the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT where some l50s are
possible...and u30s to l40s over the mountains a secondary or stronger
cold front...and a narrow cold frontal rainband may sweep through
just prior to nightfall with low and middle level cold advection
occurring through Wednesday night.

Wednesday night into Thursday...the upper level low moves over upstate New York and
New England with much colder air moving in. Westerly upslope and
lake effect snow showers will impact locations mainly from the
capital region north and west...especially Wednesday night. High pressure
quickly builds in from the Ohio Valley and Midwest on Thursday with any
lake effect precipitation ending...north and west of Albany. After lows in
the middle 20s to l30s...highs will be near normal with u30s to l40s
in valleys...and u20s to m30s over the mountains

Thursday night into Friday...high pressure builds in over the northeast
with a period of fair and dry weather with seasonable temperatures for
early December.


Aviation /03z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a cold front gradually approaches from the Great Lakes and
southeast Canada. The boundary will move across much of the
region overnight accompanied by showers. However the boundary's
forward/southward progress will slow considerable Saturday as
it heads toward the coast. Clouds will continue to be on the
increase...thickening and lowering this evening. MVFR conditions
are expected to develop by late evening then persist through at
least Saturday morning at kgfl and kalb...through much of the day
at kpsf and into the early evening at kpou closer to the boundary.

Southerly winds will decrease and shift toward the west as the
front approaches with a shift to the northwest with its passage.
The flow will become northerly on Saturday and be rather light.

Saturday night-Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tue: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers. Chance shsn.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.


Fire weather...
a cold front will move across the region tonight...preceded by
much warmer than normal temperatures and some showers. Behind the
front...a seasonably cold air mass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.

We will end our fire weather weather forecast
(fwf) and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon issuance on
November 30th.


the next chance of showers will be tonight into Saturday. Rainfall
amounts with this system will be light...generally less than a
quarter inch. So little or no response is expected on any stream
or rivers within our hydrological service area.

It will turn dry later Saturday into early next week.

The next chance of significant precipitation will be Tuesday...
will should be mainly in the form of rain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...gjm
short term...gjm
long term...wasula
fire weather...gjm/NAS

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