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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY. FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK A SERIES OF FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOW...FLURRIES OR
SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMALS BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND 
WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ALOFT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
AREA BY LATE IN DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY WITH A BITTERLY COLD START. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY NY FOR MARCH 6TH IS 40 DEGREES.

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT CAUSING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

MID AND LOW LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD
BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE 500HPA TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA SINCE LATE JANUARY WILL FLATTEN AS THE FLOW TURNS
WNW. SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY SHORT WVS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN
THIS FAST FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE ACCOMP BY A CLIPPER LOW SAT
     THE SECOND WILL DRAG AN E-W COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUN
WHICH WILL ENHANCE LK EFFECT RESPONSE IN W ADRNDKS.

BOTH FEATURES WILL SET UP SHSN AND FLURRIES...WITH SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...BUT
BOTH ARE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED. QPF TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MDL SUITE (GFS/ECMWF/NAM/GEM) BUT
TIMING VARIES SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON LK IMPACTS. THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING TOTALS ARE A FEW HUNDRETHS S & E OF ALB...AND 0.10 T0
0.25 N & W WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE W ADRNDKS. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A HEALTHIER LK RESPONSE INTO THE TUG HILL WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER 0.10 OR SO MONDAY. WITH 15 TO 1 RATIOS
THESE COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES SPREAD OVER THE 2 DAYS
PARTICULARLY N OF I90.

MEANWHILE DURING THIS PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL RETREAT WELL NORTH INTO QB...AS DOES THE MAJOR HEMISPHERIC
500 HPA LOW. THE FCA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDEST AIR
AND TEMPS WILL TREND SLOWLY TWRD NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE 500HPA FLOW CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY. TUES THE FCA IS IN BTWN SYSTEMS AS THE N BRANCH SYSTEM
IS WELL NW OF FCA..AND S BRANCH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY W/PC CONDS AND TEMPS NR OR EVEN A FEW
DEG ABV NORMAL.

TUES NT INTO WED THE GFS DIGS A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA SHORT WV
AND A TRANSIENT TROF OVER NE AND DROPS A STRONGER CDFNT SE
THROUGH FCA. THE REST OF THE MDL SUITE (ECMWF/GEM/HPC) KEEP BOTH
THE FAST FLOW...MOST OF THE 500HPA ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WELL N OF FCA WED. IF IT PRODUCES ANY PCPN IT WILL BE
LIGHT AS IT TOO REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TWRD THIS SOLUTION.

THURS INTO FRI THE TROF OVER THE EAST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AS THE
COLD CORE RETREATS NE INTO QB AND THE N ATLC. BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD 500HPA RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ABV NORMALS INTO
THE MID 30 TO MID 40S. 

WILL POPULATE EFP WITH HPC GRIDS AS THEY ARE IN THE CONSENSUS OF
GUID.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
T THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS 
MORNING AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH 
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. 

A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND TO BE SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT.

WE STARTING OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH 
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
APPROACHES. MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z/SATURDAY
AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG. 
SUN-SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN/SHRA. 
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START 
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK 
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

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