Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
900 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
strengthening low pressure will move from near New York City...near
the Interstate 84 corridor and reach Cape Cod later tonight. Cold
air will wrap into the storm...turning all precipitation to snow by
midnight. The wind will increase and temperatures will tumble. High
pressure will build in on Thursday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
As of 845 PM EDT...low pressure near New York City was down to 983
mbs...still deepening but also moving quickly to the northeast. This
low should be near Cape Cod by midnight...and well into the Gulf of
of Maine by daybreak Thursday.
Precipitation has become cellular across much of the region as
potent middle level slot has worked to reduce the coverage and
intensity of precipitation. The more impressive bands of snow were
actually not in even across the Adirondacks...but in Burlington/S
County Warning Area.
However...we are not finished with the storm yet by any means. The
frontogentic band will probably pivot back into our northwestern
zones through the early overnight. Other lighter batches of
precipitation will continue to work through the remainder our region.
The 00z aly radiosonde observation still indicated a warm nose (+2c) about 4000 feet
off the deck. However...as the storm pulls further east...cold air
advection should reduce the warm nose by later this evening...and as
a result...all precipitation looks to be all snow everywhere by
The problem is precipitation amounts look lower (outside of the
adirondack) park than we earlier thought. So for this update...have
cut back snowfall amounts across most areas. However...keep in
mind...much of the warning area that hasn/T received a lot of snow
has seen a fair amount of sleet and up to a quarter inch of ice. We
will continue all headlines...warnings generally in our northern and
western zones...advisories capital region south. We have had reports
in excess of a foot of snow across our Adirondacks...with more to
The wind has picked up and has gusted up to 40 miles per hour across the
capital district and other areas. The wind in the capital region is
still from a northerly direction. This is a little unusual to see
such strong wind out of the north (as opposed to northwest). The
combination of wind and falling temperatures has already produce
wind chills at or below zero...but generally not quite cold enough
for headlines...at least yet.
Temperatures have dipped to below freezing most places...about to do
so at Poughkeepsie. In the capital district...they have tumbled to
around 20s degrees...teens further north and west.
Many have reported a tenth of an inch of ice...some up to two tenths
of an inch. The combination of wind and ice accretions up to a
quarter inch in spots...will lead to isolated to scattered power
Snow continues to fly across the Adirondacks...Lake George
area...with snowfall rates light at this time. Some wind has already
allowed for some blowing and drifting in these areas.
After midnight...precipitation will be all snow. There might be
burst of moderate snow...but not it looks as if the snow overnight
will not be all that heavy...from the capital district south and
eastward. Further north...where the h700 mb tracks...heavier
deformation snow will continue with snowfall rates up to an inch per
Everyone will see a north or northwest wind gusting to 30 miles per hour or
higher. This will allow for some blowing and drifting of the
snow...mainly north of the capital district. However...once
again...this wind could allow some branches to fall onto power lines
causing isolated to scattered power outages.
Temperatures will tumble through teens overnight...single numbers
north. The combination of wind and low temperatures will produce
wind chills from 5 to 15 below zero...close but not quite headline
material. If this changes...we will include this with our warnings
Any snow will taper to snow showers on Thursday...with little if any
additional accumulations. The wind will continue to gust out of the
northwest 35-40 miles per hour. Some sunshine should return by afternoon.
Blowing and localized drifting snow will continue to a problem for
the morning. The wind will relax by late in the day.
Snowfall totals look to be 10 to 20+ inches across the Adirondacks
and Lake George...6 to 12 inches Mohawk and Schoharie
valleys...Saratoga region and southern Vermont (with locally higher
amounts possible over the southern greens).
From the capital region to the Berkshires and southern
Catskills...look for 2 to 5 inches of snowfall...highest over
The middle Hudson Valley and Litchfield County look to have only an
inch or two snowfall.
With h850 temperatures down to -20c to -24c despite any March
sunshine...temperatures on Thursday will struggle to get out of the
teens from the capital region northward...lower to middle 20s to the
Lee of the Catskills and Litchfield County.
Short term /Thursday night/...
high pressure will crest to our south Thursday night. The
combination of fresh snow (mainly Albany northward) and generally a
mainly clear sky and light wind should allow for good radiational
cooling. Since temperatures will start out unseasonably cold...they
will only get colder Thursday. They look to tumble zero to 10 below
north of Albany...zero to 10 above Albany south. These values will
be close to...but not quite record lows for Friday morning.
Friday...the wind will turn southerly ahead of an oncoming clipper
system. The southerly wind along with a sunny start to the day will
allow temperatures to bounce back into the 30s...still short of
normal but moderating.
The clipper system looks moisture starved...but could bring some
snow showers to mainly our northern areas...with snowfall amounts of
no more than a coating to two inches mainly Friday night. Clouds...
and southerly flow will allow for not nearly as cold a night Friday
night...with lows ranging from the lower 30s in the capital
region...to 20s most other places.
Saturday...the cold front portion of the clipper moves through on
Saturday. H850 temperatures will be just a little under 0c so with
good mixing and some limited sunshine...temperatures look to reach
around 50 in the middle Hudson Valley/lower Litchfield and 40s most
other places...except 30s across the Adirondacks and southern
greens. It might get just cold enough to induce some lake enhanced
showers of rain or snow...mainly across the Adirondacks.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
a relatively quite but cold weather period expected Saturday night
through Wednesday. Models now forecast the low pressure system to
move off the coast well to our south Sunday night and Monday with no
precipitation making it into our area. The only other system expected to
affect the region will be a cold front late Saturday night into
Sunday morning...and then a clipper system moving across southern
Canada may bring some precipitation to the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Have only forecast chance probability of precipitation with these system as the
Below normal temperatures will be the rule during this period. Lows
Saturday night will be in the teens to middle 20s. Highs Sunday in the
20s over the Adirondacks and upper 20s to the 30s elsewhere. Lows
Sunday night in the zero to 5 below range over the Adirondacks...and
single digits to middle teens elsewhere. Highs Monday in the upper
teens to near 30s. Lows Monday night near zero over the Adirondacks
and single digits and teens elsewhere. Highs Tuesday in the middle 20s
to middle 30s. Lows Tuesday night in the upper single digits to lower
20s. Highs Wednesday in the 30s.
Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
a storm will deepen as it tracks from New York City to off of Cape
Cod tonight. This storm will continue to impact all the terminals
with mainly IFR conditions tonight...improving to VFR conditions
Here are some specific details for the terminals...
At kgfl...mainly LIFR/IFR conditions due to snow and blowing snow
are expected through at least midnight with occasional MVFR as the
snow lets up at times. The snow should further decrease in
intensity after 06z/Thu...with conditions improving to MVFR. Snow
will taper to snow showers or flurries after 12z/Thursday with some
blowing snow. North to northeast winds will be around
10kts...occasionally gusting to 20 kts through 03z. The wind will
turn to the northwest after 03z and increase to about
15kts...gusting to 25kts. The wind will remain this way through much
At kalb...mainly IFR conditions with occasional MVFR are expected
through most of tonight. Freezing rain has changed to sleet. The
sleet will mix with and change to snow by 03z...and there will be
some blowing snow. Thereafter...expect mainly snow through at least
06z/Thu. Snow should taper to snow showers after 12z/Thu.
Occasional blowing snow will be possible after 03z/Thu...through
18z/Thu. North winds will continue 15kts g25kts...becoming
northwesterly after 06z and increasing to 20kts with gusts to 30kts
or even a little higher.
At kpou...temperatures remained above freezing through 00z...but
will fall below the freezing before 03z. Look for MVFR with
occasional IFR ceilings becoming more persistent IFR as the
precipitation changes to all snow after 03z. Snow will taper to
scattered snow showers/flurries (vcsh) after 06z with VFR
conditions. However...the wind will increase out of the northwest
15kts gusting to 25kts and remain that way through Thursday.
At kpsf...temperatures have dropped to freezing by 00z. Mainly
IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail as with freezing rain/sleet and
eventually all snow after 03z. A variable wind will become northwest
10kts gusting to 20kts by 03z...15kts gusting to 30kts by 06z and
20kts gusting to 30kts by 12z. Due to an upslope northwesterly
wind...light to occasionally moderate snow should persist until
12z...tapering to snow showers through 18z with MVFR
conditions...and scattered snow showers/flurries (vcsh) after 18z.
The wind will produce some blowing snow as well.
Thursday night and friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
Sat through sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of
Sun night through tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday night through wednesday: moderate impact. Chance shsn.
there has been ice movement on the hoosic river near Eagle Bridge
due to some rain and warmer temperatures. Rainfall amounts have been
in the quarter to three quarters range Albany south.
Colder air coming tonight will freeze any runoff and should stop any
runoff before any major Hydro issues ensue. There still could be
some ponding of water in poor drainage areas through evening...and
perhaps a few minor rises on rivers and streams from Albany
southward through evening before the everything freezes solid.
Across northern and central areas...most of the liquid precipitation
will be absorbed into the existing snow pack.
Across far southern areas...such as the middle Hudson
Valley...southern Taconics...southern Berkshires...and northwest
CT...moderate to heavy rainfall will lead to the possibility of minor
flooding in poor drainage...low lying...and urban
areas...especially in locations where existing snow and ice blocks
drainage...along with significant in bank rises on rivers and
At this point...no river points are forecasted by the nerfc to
reach flood stage. Also...it doesn/T appear that temperatures will
remain above freezing long enough for ice breakup along most
larger rivers...as temperatures should quickly drop below freezing
by tonight. However...an isolated ice jam on a smaller stream or
creek cannot be ruled out through this evening.
This cold weather will be in place for Thursday and Friday with
temperatures below normal. Daytime temperatures will return above
freezing on Saturday with 40s for most areas...but with overnight
lows dropping below freezing...any snow melt should be slow and not
cause any hydrologic issues. Colder temperatures will return once
again on Sunday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
|* add discussion here. *|
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for ctz001-
New York...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for nyz049-
Winter Storm Warning until 11 am EDT Thursday for nyz032-033-
Massachusetts...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for maz001-
Vermont...Winter Storm Warning until 11 am EDT Thursday for vtz013>015.