Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
747 PM EDT Friday Apr 24 2015
a large storm in the middle levels of the atmosphere will remain in
place off the northeast coast into early next week. The northwest
flow around it will keep temperatures below normal across the
region through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 747 PM EDT...still mostly cloudy early this evening as the
gusty cyclonic flow persists across the region...accompanied by a
cold pool of air aloft to produce widespread cumulus/SC along with some
light flurries. The clouds and flurries will gradually diminish
this evening and especially overnight as some drier air starts to
Expect skies to become mainly clear to partly cloudy in most
areas by late tonight...but remain mostly cloudy across the
northern third of the forecast due to the closer proximity to the
upper low which will remain off the New England coast.
It will be unseasonably cold tonight with lows generally in the
20s...which is about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
although the upper low will remain in the vicinity of the
Canadian Maritimes through the weekend...its influence on our
region will gradually decrease as temperatures aloft warm a little and
the cyclonic flow weakens. This will result in less cloudiness
Saturday through Sunday...generally mainly clear to partly cloudy
conditions...and warmer temperatures. Although a showers or snow showers
can not be ruled out Saturday across higher terrain areas...the
coverage of any precipitation will be much less than it was on Friday.
Although there will be a warming trend this weekend...temperatures will
still be a little below normal. High Saturday will be in the
upper 40s and 50s. Lows Saturday night in the upper 20s to middle
30s. Highs Sunday in the 50s to lower 60s.
Another impulse rotating around the upper level low over the
Canadian Maritimes will bring more cloudiness and a chance of
rain/snow showers Sunday night and have forecast probability of precipitation increasing
to 25 to 45 percent. Lows will be in the 30s to around 40.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
the period Marks a transition to a warming pattern. Wednesday and
Thursday...temperatures will average a few degrees above normal.
Given no organized systems during the period...showers will be most
likely at the beginning of the period when temperatures will be
coolest...with only spotty showers possible Thursday through Friday.
Sunshine will be limited...but most abundant Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a cyclonic flow regime will remain in place into tonight...but
will become less cyclonic on Saturday. This pattern will continue
to result in plenty of clouds in VFR range around 4-6 kft early
tonight...with clouds becoming more scattered late tonight into
early Saturday morning mainly in valley locations. Snow showers
have diminished so dry conditions are expected through the period
ending 00z Sunday.
Winds will be northwest around 8-13 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts at
kalb/kpsf...with wind speeds decreasing to 5-10 kts overnight.
Winds will increase to around 10 kts with some higher gusts after
mixing commences Saturday morning.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday night-monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Monday night-tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night-wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
our region will remain under the influence of a large upper level
low anchored across eastern Canada.
The relative humidity should recover to 75-90 percent tonight...then drop into
the 30-40 percent range Sat afternoon. Winds Sat may still
occasionally gust up to 25-30 miles per hour.
the forecast will be dominated by a persistent upper level low
which will result in cool temperatures...breezy conditions and
chances for mainly light precipitation...mostly in the form of
snow tonight...with another chance of light rain or snow showers
Sunday night into early next week. Any of this precipitation will
have little if any impact on our rivers and streams in our
hydrological service area (hsa).
Rivers and streams will continue to slowly recede with the cooler
temperatures and light scattered precipitation forecasted.
For details on specific area river and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our web-