Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1254 am EST sun Dec 28 2014
a cold front will approach from the west overnight and move across
the region Sunday bringing rain showers to the area. A
colder...more seasonable...airmass will be ushered in the wake of
the frontal passage especially Sunday night. As we head through
the last few days of 2014...we are looking at generally dry
weather with a return to colder temperatures.
Near term /through today/...
regional radar shows precipitation/showers expanding as the low
level jet associated with the approaching low pressure system
moves into the region. The hrrr-3km seems to handle a good handle
on the situation. Have increased probability of precipitation for the overnight.
Temperatures will be mild.
On Sunday...the cold front will steadily progress southeast as
drier air filters southward into the dacks region. We will diminish
probability of precipitation from north to south through the day as h850 temperatures drop back to
near 0c for the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT to -10c into the norther
Adirondack region within our County warning forecast area. Due to the drier air...Lake
Ontario response to the cold advection appears minimal at this time.
Should remain rather mild for this time of the year with upper 30s
to middle 40s expected.
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
Sunday night...a narrow anticyclonic ridge axis will extend from
the Ohio River valley and into the northeast corridor as cold air
advection continues. This should keep our weather tranquil yet a
noticeable chill in the air. There will likely be some stratocu
development overnight downwind of Lake Ontario as those Delta T/S
increase as recent model trends favor some light snow shower
activity late Sunday night into portions of the southern dacks and
western Mohawk Valley...and per the trajectory forecasts...may
bring some light snow showers into the Schoharie valley late at
night. As for low temperatures...mainly 20s.
Monday...cold air advection continues as another surface cold
front/trough axis slides southward across the region. Mainly
stratocu clouds and some light snow showers/flurries will impact
portions west of the Hudson through the day. H850 temperatures will drop
back to between -10c and -15c.
Monday night...the Arctic high building southward into Montana and
the North Plains...its influence will extend into the Great Lakes
region and northeast. This will result in partly cloudy-mostly clear skies as
temperatures as temperatures drop back into the teens for most
areas...single digits into the dacks.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
the extended period starts out seasonably cold as a large high
pressure continues to build southeastward from Montana. This will
continue to bring modified Arctic air into our region.
Tuesday looks to be dry everywhere with at least partial sunshine as
an anticyclonic flow is northwesterly. By Wednesday...as the high
builds to our southwest...the flow looks to become more westerly
which should allow for some lake effect...to the Lee of
Ontario...mainly across the Adirondacks. Otherwise it should remain
dry with partial sunshine outside of the Adirondacks.
By Friday...the high pressure will have translated to our
south...off the middle Atlantic coast. A southerly flow will ensue.
Clouds will increase on that day...along with possibility of a
little snow shower activity.
Then Friday night into Saturday...a disturbance riding in the
subtropical jet...move lift into the Ohio Valley. Initially it look
as if it might be cold enough for all snow. However...now it looks
as if this system will likely pull enough warm air for at least a
wintry mix...if not mostly rain...at least from Albany southward.
However...there is still the possibility that the storm could reform
further east off the eastern Seaboard...which would hold cold air in
longer. Right now...most guidance does not support the latter
thinking...but the possibility remains.
Our forecast while leaning with the warmer solution...will have the
possibility of snow Friday night...changing to a rain/snow mix
north...and mostly rain from I-90 south by Saturday afternoon.
Obviously this scenario bears watching as there could also be period
of sleet and freezing rain (although neither are mentioned this far
High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from around 20
degrees across our northwest zones...to lower 30s in our
southeastern zones. Thursday looks a few degrees warmer everywhere
with temperatures reaching just above freezing in the middle Hudson
Valley. Friday high temperatures are projected to be from the middle
20s across the Adirondacks...lower 30s capital region and
surrounding areas...middle 30s southeast. By Saturday...it looks as if
everyone should be in the 30s...mostly above freezing...with areas
south of the capital region possibly exceeding 40 degrees.
Lows will in the teens north...lower to middle 20s south Tuesday
through Thursday nights. By Friday night lows to range from the middle
20s northwest...to around freezing in the capital region and points
south. Obviously a slight shift in temperatures will help determine
what kind of precipitation falls Friday night into
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
clouds and showers will expand overnight producing occasional MVFR
ceilings and possibly MVFR visibility reductions through early morning.
At this time...IFR is not likely and much of the time could remain
in the VFR status.
A cold front will be responsible for this renewed shower and cloud
activity. This front will cross the terminals late Sunday morning
through midday. A south wind 5-10kts will shift to the west or
northwest 10-15kts with a few gusts to 20kts...mainly at kpsf and
Any MVFR ceilings should climb back over 3000 feet later Sunday
morning...or in the case of kpou...become scattered.
Sun night-Thu: no operational impact. No sig weather.
river levels continue to recede across the region...and will
continue to do so for the next week.
A cold front is expected to bring rain showers with a mix of
rain/snow across higher elevations late tonight into Sun morning. Quantitative precipitation forecast with
this event will be on the order of 0.10 to 0.40 inch...generally
will have minimal impacts to river flows.
Generally dry conditions...and colder temperatures...are expected
into at least early next week. By then end of the period with
decreasing flows and normal temperatures ice may begin to form.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.