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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
103 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Synopsis...
a wave of low pressure will continue to track along a frontal
boundary south of the region today...which will result in a light
snowfall for areas well south of Albany. High pressure building
eastward from the central U.S. Will push the frontal boundary
offshore tonight...as Arctic air filters back into our region. The
Arctic air mass will remain in place through Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1245 PM EST...spotter reports from southern
Dutchess Colorado indicate little if any snowfall has fallen since
around 7 am. Earlier snowfall amts generally were under an inch.
It appears that significant low level dry air entrainment...along
with northerly winds displacing the snowflakes further south than
what radar echoes suggest aloft...are preventing much snow from
reaching the ground across Dutchess and Litchfield cos.

In fact...latest radar trends indicate any echoes aloft are
beginning to drift even farther S and east. So...other than perhaps a
few flurries from a middle level cloud deck over the next hour or
two across extreme southeast Dutchess and southern Litchfield cos...no
additional snowfall is expected from the system passing south of
the region.

Otherwise...mostly cloudy skies will continue across the
region...composed of mainly high and middle level clouds. Continued
low level cold air advection should prevent temperatures from rising much
this afternoon...and therefore should hold nearly steady...in the
Lower/Middle 20s in valleys...and teens across higher terrain. Temperatures
should gradually fall again later this afternoon.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
surface high pressure will build eastward across the Ohio Valley and
middle Atlantic region tonight...with ridging extending northward in
the northeast Continental U.S.. this will provide for clearing skies and very
cold temperatures tonight. There is still expected to be a bit of a
northwest breeze until the ridge builds in late...so some borderline
advisory level wind chill values are possible over mainly the higher
terrain west of the Hudson Valley. Since confidence is marginal at
this time...will hold off on issuing an advisory but will continue
to mention the threat in the severe weather potential statement for possible issuance later today.
Actual air temperatures are expected to drop to around 5 below to 5
above zero from the capital district south...with 5 to 15 below zero
readings north.

Friday looks to be a dry and cold day...although considering
temperatures will start out below zero in many locations...highs in
the teens to lower 20s will be a decent rise. Winds look to be
rather light though...as high pressure gradually shifts southward to
the Middle Atlantic States. Dry conditions are expected across most of
the area through Friday night...although a few snow showers will be
possible across the western Adirondacks towards dawn Saturday as an
upper level disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. It will be
another cold night...but not nearly as cold as the night before due
to increasing clouds.

Chances for mainly isolated to scattered snow showers will gradually
increase on Saturday...as the aforementioned disturbance and
associated surface trough move into the region. Greatest coverage
of snow showers will be across the west facing slopes of the higher
terrain. Some minor accumulations will be possible...mainly over the
western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Temperatures will
moderate ahead of the surface trough...with middle 20s in the higher
terrain and upper 20s to lower 30s in the valleys. Still below
normal...but an improvement over the previous few days.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
moderating temperatures with seasonably warm readings expected as we
head into middle week with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

The last time the high temperature was at least 50 degrees at Albany
New York was back on December 27th...at Poughkeepsie New York and Bennington Vermont
was back on January 4th and at Glens Falls New York and Pittsfield Massachusetts was
on December 25th.

A broad longwave trough will remain over the region with short wave
troughs moving through the northern stream. There is fairly good
agreement with the timing of the troughs to move over the region
Saturday night and again Monday. There are some subtle difference
with regards to amplitude however moisture should be rather limited.
The better chances for showers should be across the southern
Adirondacks...western Mohawk Valley into the eastern Catskills. Dry
weather returns for the middle week with surface ridging dominating.

&&

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
a wave of low pressure continues to move along a frontal boundary
draped across the Middle Atlantic States. It will head off the coast
and out to sea this afternoon. The precipitation shield associated
with the low is just south of kpou and should remain south of kpou
but will keep vcsh for this afternoon there. A secondary cold
front has also moved across the area which shifted the winds more
northerly and has opened the door to a colder and drier airmass to
filter in. Higher pressure will build in from the west this
afternoon and tonight continuing through tomorrow.

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the taf
period...18z/Friday.

Northwest to north winds generally 10 to 15 knots with gusts to up
to around 25 knots will decrease Slater this afternoon...then winds
diminish tonight to near calm. North to northwest winds at 6 knots or
less are expected tomorrow morning.

Outlook... Friday-Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sat-Mon: low operational impact. Slight chance shsn.

&&

Hydrology...
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through the next 5 days.

Another Arctic air mass will build in today through Friday...with
temperatures falling back well below freezing. The Arctic air will
retreat over the weekend...but temperatures should still average
below normal.

A moderating trend is then expected early next week with near normal
temperatures and above freezing daytime temperatures. Some snow will start
to melt...but will be on a diurnal cycle with temperatures falling back
below freezing at night.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jpv
near term...kl/NAS/jpv
short term...jpv
long term...iaa
aviation...iaa/NAS
hydrology...jpv

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