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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
805 am EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Synopsis...
the influence of an upper low moving off the New England coast will
gradually decrease today. High pressure will build in at all levels
of the atmosphere from Quebec to the Great Lakes region over the
rest of the weekend...with clearing skies. For Monday and much of
next week...this high pressure system will settle over the eastern
Seaboard...bringing warm and dry Summer weather to the region.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
current radar and satellite trends and model forecasts suggest that
any clearing that occurs today will not begin until this afternoon.
In addition...isolated to scattered showers will also prevail across
the region...especially this morning and over the southwest part of
the forecast area. Highs will depend greatly on how fast the clouds
break up...but based on current trends believe it is best to
forecast closer to the cooler mav temperatures with highs generally between
70 and 77 degrees.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
a drying and warming trend will take place through the short term
period. High pressure over southern Canada will build southward into
the region during this period. Skies will become mainly clear
Saturday night...and generally remain mainly clear through Monday.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s. Highs Sunday middle 70s to lower 80s.
Lows Sunday night in the upper 40s and 50s. Highs Monday in the
upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

Long term /Monday through Friday/...
Monday night-Wed...high pressure should remain in control through at
least early Wednesday...as upper level ridging builds across the eastern
Continental U.S.. expect generally fair conditions through Wednesday am. However...as
a cold front slowly approaches from the Great Lakes region...some
showers/thunderstorms could reach portions of the western/southern
Adirondacks late Wednesday or Wednesday nt. A warm southwest flow ahead of this
front should allow temperatures to rise to above normal levels. Expect
maximum temperatures to reach the middle/upper 80s in valleys...and 75-80 across
higher elevations. Some valley areas could reach/approach
90...should the frontal system and any associated clouds/showers
hold off. Overnight mins should fall into the 50s to lower 60s Monday
nt/Tuesday am...then mainly into the Lower/Middle 60s in valleys...and
55-60 across higher elevations for Tuesday nt/Wednesday am.

Thu-Fri...the aforementioned cold front should move across the
region sometime late Wednesday nt or Thursday. However...its forward movement
could be slowed ultimately depending on any potential tropical
development across the SW/west Atlantic Ocean...which could help
amplify the upper level ridging across eastern Continental U.S....and result in
a slower frontal system. Will generally indicate chance probability of precipitation for late
Wednesday nt into Thursday for showers/thunderstorms...assuming the front does
indeed pass through during this time. Will keep at least slight chance
probability of precipitation into Friday...in case the front moves slower. Temperatures on Thursday will be
highly dependent on the aforementioned frontal system...and
associated clouds/convection. At this time...have indicated mainly
70s for higher terrain...and lower 80s in the Hudson River valley.
However...these temperatures could be cooler if the front moves through
faster and/or clouds and showers occur. On Friday...expect maximum temperatures to
mainly remain in the 70s...with some higher elevations across the
Adirondacks possibly only reaching the 60s. Overnight mins should
fall into the Lower/Middle 60s in valleys and 55-60 across higher
elevations for Wednesday nt/Thursday am...and 50s to around 60 for Thursday nt/Friday
am.

&&

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
conditions are expected to be mainly VFR through today. However
there could be brief period of IFR ceilings at alb through about 14z.
Confidence was very low (less than 25 percent) so we did not include
this in the taf. Otherwise at the other tafs any light rain showers
should impact the visibility and ceilings at all so went with vcsh (as well as
kalb). At kalb we did include sct005 through the morning.

VFR ceilings should begin to break up later during the afternoon.

For later Sat nt...there is a possibility that some patchy ground
fog/low stratus develops...but this is highly dependent on whether
or not a higher VFR level stratus cloud deck redevelops. If the
higher based clouds increase again...the threat for fog would be
greatly reduced. At this time...have just hinted at MVFR visibilities after
08z/sun for kgfl and kpsf due to lingering uncertainty.

As for precipitation...spotty light rain or drizzle will remain
possible through middle morning...with the best chance appearing to be
roughly in the 12z-16z/Sat time period...as a weak upper level
impulse passes southward across the taf sites. Localized MVFR/IFR
visibilities could occur within any heavier patches of drizzle or showers.

Light/variable winds will trend into the NE to east at 5-10 knots from middle
morning into this afternoon...before becoming light/variable once
again around and after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday-wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.



&&

Fire weather...
relative humidity values will drop to between 50 and 60 percent today with clouds
gradually breaking up during the afternoon. However...there will
still be isolated to scattered showers across the region. Surface
winds will be light at 10 miles per hour or less.

Relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent tonight with light and
variable winds.

&&

Hydrology...
the influence of an upper low moving off the New England coast will
gradually decrease today...but there will still be isolated to
scattered rain showers across the region...especially this morning.
Rainfall amounts will generally be light and not have any additional
impacts on area stream and rivers.

From Sunday and beyond expect dry and increasing warm weather to
affect the region as high pressure at all levels of the atmosphere
builds in.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...gjm
near term...gjm
short term...gjm
long term...kl
aviation...hwjiv/kl
fire weather...gjm
hydrology...gjm

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