Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
653 am EDT Sat may 23 2015
after a chilly start to the day...fair...cool and dry
weather will open the Memorial Day Holiday weekend with high
temperatures running about 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures
will moderate Sunday into Monday to above normal levels...as high
pressure builds in from off the middle Atlantic coast. On Memorial
Day...humidity levels will be on the increase and there is a
slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm north of the capital
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
freeze warning remains in effect until 8 am EDT this morning for
the western and southern Adirondacks...Mohawk and Schoharie
valleys...helderbergs...eastern Catskills...Lake George Saratoga
region...northern and central Taconics... southern Vermont...and
As of 652 am EDT...an anomalously cold air mass will be over the
region this morning...with temperatures in the upper 20s to l40s
across the forecast area. The frost advisory was dropped for the
capital district...southern Taconics...middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT
since temperatures have bottomed out in the u30s and l40s as of 6-630 am.
It is a very dry air mass with surface dewpoints currently in the teens
and 20s across upstate New York and New England.
High pressure continues to ridge in from the eastern Great Lakes
region...Ohio and west-central PA this morning. After the chilly start
to the day...the subsidence from the surface anticyclone will allow
for sunny/mostly sunny conditions. It will still be cool for late
may with h850 temperatures in the 0c to +2c range by 18z...and warming to
+3c to +6c by 00z/sun. Mixing to h800-h825 should allow highs to
reach the middle and u50s over the mountains and western Mohawk Valley...and
lower to m60s in most other locations. A few locations in the southern
dacks/southern greens may only reach the u40s to l50s. Overall...high
temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal. The winds will be
from the west to northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour with a few gusts to 25 to 30 miles per hour.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
tonight...the surface high will drift south of the region...and off
the Long Island coast. The low and middle level warm advection will
continue across New York and New England. The skies will start out
clear...but then some middle and high clouds will increase from the
south and west especially after midnight. Some radiational cooling
early on will allow temperatures to drop off...but not as sharply or cold
as this morning. Some patchy frost may be possible in the outlying
areas outside the major river valleys /srn dacks...southern
Vermont...N-cntrl Taconics...and Berkshires/...but lows are expected
mainly in the u30s to l40s. A light S to southeast breeze of 5 to 10 miles per hour
will increase towards daybreak.
Sunday...another nice day is expected as the middle level ridge
begins to strengthen over the East Coast. Low and middle level
heights will be increasing over the eastern Great Lakes into upstate
New York. The surface anticyclone will be well east of New England. The
boundary layer winds will shift to the S to SW. H850 temperatures rise
close to +10c. Good mixing once again should allow temperatures to rise
to slightly above normal readings with highs in the middle to u70s
in the valley locations...and m60s to l70s over the higher
Sunday night...there are indications from the short to medium
range guidance that a warm front or a dew point boundary will move
north and west of the region during this time frame. The trends
are for less in the way of isolated showers for most of the forecast
area...except for the western dacks...and western Mohawk Valley due to the
weak thermal advection with the warm front. Clouds will
increase...and there may be some low stratus getting into the
S/southeast extreme of the forecast area. Lows will generally be in the
u40s to l50s across the forecast area.
Memorial Day-Monday night...the warm front should be lifting north
of northern New York and New England during the late morning and afternoon.
Most of the day could be dry...except for a few pop-up showers or
an isolated thunderstorm closer to boundary in the southern
dacks...Lake George area...and into southern Vermont late in the day.
Humidity levels will start to increase during the afternoon. More
clouds than sunshine is expected or mostly cloudy conditions look
to prevail at this time during the afternoon...but it does look
fairly dry with the closed h500 anticyclone ridging in from off
the Georgia/SC/NC coast. Highs were favored closer to the gfsmos with
u70s to l80s in the valley areas...and 70s over the higher
terrain. A weak disturbance in the west/SW flow may focus isolated-scattered
showers mainly north of the capital region and Berkshires once
again. Showalter values do not fall below 0c...but a slight chance
of thunder was used over the southern dacks/Lake George area and parts
of southern Vermont prior to midnight. Lows will be milder than previous
evening with u50s to l60s.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
hot and humid for much of next week along with chances of showers
and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon hours.
A warm front is expected to lift northward across the region by
Tuesday placing the area in the warm sector. Ridging at the surface and
aloft will be along the eastern Seaboard at least through Thursday before
it is expected to break down...with a trough over the plains and a large
upper level low over the hudsons Bay area. This set up will have deep
southwest flow across our region which will result in hot and humid
conditions with highs mainly in the 80s nearing 90 degrees in the Hudson
Valley and dew points in the 60s.
Guidance indicates a weak boundary should stall in the vicinity of the
region by middle week with short waves moving through the flow. Thus there is
the threat for convection especially during the afternoon hours with the
heating of the day. There are differences regarding the timing of the
individual short waves which is to be expected in this time frame
so confidence in the timing of rounds of convection is not high.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight as ridging dominates.
Heights aloft will begin to rise as the upper low moves away from
the region. At the surface...high pressure will shift southeastward
across the area and is expected to be centered along the middle Atlantic
by this evening. Some high and middle level clouds are expected to move
into the region ahead an approaching warm front this evening which
will pass to our north tonight.
Light to calm winds will become westerly after sunrise and will become
gusty by afternoon due to day time mixing. Winds will then diminish
as we head through the evening hours.
sun-sun night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Memorial day: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night-Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wed: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
low relative humidity values of 15 to 30 percent this afternoon...
occasional wind gusts of around 25 miles per hour this afternoon...
Per request of the New England fire liaison contact points...a
Special Weather Statement has been issued to reflect "elevated"
risk of erratic fire behavior.
Eastern New York and western New England have greened up or leafed
out...and the keetch-Byram drought index plays an important role
in determining whether or not we have a "critical" fire day. The
current values are still around 200...so no headlines or
statements were requested in east central New York at this time.
The relative humidity values will lower to 15 to 30 percent this afternoon...then
increase to 60 to 95 percent tonight. Expect the relative humidity values to
lower to 20 to 35 percent Sunday afternoon.
The winds will be from the west to northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour
today...with some gusts to 25 to 30 miles per hour. The winds will become
light to calm tonight...then increase from the south to southwest
at 5 to 15 miles per hour on Sunday.
no Hydro problems expected over the next 5 days...with river levels
holding or falling through the period.
Dry conditions will persist into Memorial Day. A slight chance
to chance for showers and thunderstorms will return by late
Memorial Day afternoon into Tuesday...especially north and west of
the capital region. Any rainfall is much needed due to the recent
dry conditions. The U.S. Drought monitor has now included much of
eastern New York and western New England in the d1 category...which is
considered moderate drought.
The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the middle week in the more humid air mass.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
record low set this morning at kgfl...
A record low temperature of 31 degrees was set at Glens Falls New York
this morning at 5:37 am. This breaks the old record of 32 degrees
set back in 1967. Records date back to 1949.
New York...freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for nyz032-033-
Massachusetts...freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for maz001-025.
Vermont...freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for vtz013>015.