Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
726 am EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Synopsis...
an upper level disturbance passing just south of the
region will allow for plenty of clouds and a few rain
showers...especially for southern and eastern areas...through
Thursday morning. High pressure will then dominate...allowing for
clearing skies and above normal temperatures for Thursday afternoon
through Friday. A strong cold front will bring gusty rain showers
and cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 636 am EDT...a closed off upper level low is currently over
eastern PA and is moving eastward towards New Jersey. Cyclonic
flow around this system is picking up moisture off the Atlantic
Ocean and producing showers over New England. These light rain
showers are slowly tracking northwest within the flow around the
upper level low...and are starting to reach into eastern
New York...including parts of the capital region.

The 08z 3km hrrr guidance and latest run of our local hires WRF
show the showers will continue to affect mainly our eastern
zones. Rain showers will be fairly light...but will be noticeable
due to the recent stretch of dry weather. The rain showers this
morning probably won't make it any further north and west than
the capital region...with the best chance of seeing a shower
throughout the day across New England.

Infrared satellite imagery shows plenty of clouds in place and surface observation
show a good deal of stratus as well. Model guidance suggests these
clouds will be around the majority of the region through the
entire day today...as the upper low slides eastward to our south
towards southern New England...keeping the moist easterly flow in
place.

With the clouds/precip...have sided on the cooler side of
guidance...with highs mainly in the middle to upper 60s for valley
areas /upper 50s to low 60s for the high terrain/.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
the upper low will slowly depart to our east tonight into
Thursday. This will allow the threat for showers to diminish from
west to east this evening...with just a lingering slight chance
over western New England late tonight. It will remain fairly
cloudy through the overnight hours. Some fog may develop late
tonight once the clouds finally start to thin out...especially for any
areas that see rainfall. Overnight lows mainly look to be in the 50s.

Morning clouds will break for sunshine during the day Thursday as
the upper low moves east of Cape Cod...and weak ridging builds in
at 500 hpa. High temperatures look to reach well into the 60s to near 70
for valley areas.

Dry weather will continue for Thursday night into Friday with
ridging in place aloft and weak surface high pressure over the area.
Skies will be clear/mostly clear through the period. This will
allow for a cooler night on Thursday night due to good radiational
cooling...with 40s in most areas. Daytime highs will be above
normal on Friday due to 850 hpa temperatures around 10 to 11 degrees
c and abundant sunshine...with valley highs in the low to middle 70s.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
more amplified upper pattern setting up with a strong upper system
dropping out of Canada and drawing moisture from the subtropics as a
leading upper impulse tracks around the southern periphery of the
mean eastern North American upper trough. The upper impulse GOES
negative tilt and the combination of the upper dynamics...moisture
and low level forcing...is expected to bring a soaking rain to the
area late Friday night and Saturday. Cooling behind the cold
front..along with west low level flow...could result in rather
extensive clouds into through southern Adirondacks Sunday with some
lake effect clouds and scattered showers possible. There should be a
period of relative clearing Saturday night through Sunday night in
most other areas.

Another upper impulse is expected to track around th southern
periphery of the mean upper trough and reinforce the cooler air over
our region around the Monday time frame...with another potential
period of showers. Although the temperatures will cool to around or
slightly below normal once the cold front tracks through Saturday
through Monday...the core of the coldest air looks to remain west of
the region...more proximate to the upper low in Canada. High
temperatures well into the 60s Saturday...but cooler in higher
elevations. Then...highs around 60 to middle 60s through Monday...50s
in the higher elevations.

&&

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
as the upper low tracks east...moisture...clouds and patchy light
rain will slowly build west and northwest. MVFR ceilings have built
west into the region...and based on satellite and radar trends...the
MVFR ceilings should hold through much of the day. Visibilities will
be VFR...maybe briefly MVFR if some very patchy light rain affects
the region...with vcsh at kalb...kpsf and kpou where patchy very
light rain is possible.

MVFR ceilings should dominate through much of the day and into this
evening...with some periods of VFR ceilings above 3000 feet during
the late morning and afternoon at kalb and kgfl...where the least
chance of rain will be. Vcsh through the afternoon at kpsf and kpou.
By evening...the MVFR ceilings should linger but visibilities should
continue mainly VFR.

Winds are expected to be light from the north to northeast at less
than 10 knots through the period with variable winds by this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
widespread cloud cover is expected today...along with a few rain
showers across eastern and southern areas. Relative humidity values will only drop
to 65 to 70 percent this afternoon with light easterly winds. Relative humidity
values will recover to near 100 percent tonight with fog and dew
formation and nearly calm winds.

Clouds will eventually break for sunshine on Thursday with relative humidity values
dropping to around 60 percent in the afternoon. Light and variable
winds of 5 miles per hour or less are expected throughout the day.

&&

Hydrology...
a nearby upper level low will allow for some light rain showers
today into tonight...mainly for eastern and southern parts of the
region. Basin average rainfall will be two tenths of an inch or
less...and this looks to have little effect on area rivers and
streams...which have been running quite low lately due to a lack of
recent rainfall.

A more widespread rainfall is expected with the passage of a cold
front on Saturday. Most areas look to see at least a half inch of
rain with this system. This rainfall will not cause any hydrologic
issues...and will be beneficial to the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis
near term...frugis
short term...frugis
long term...NAS
aviation...NAS
fire weather...frugis
hydrology...frugis

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations