Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
632 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
high pressure will be in control of our weather through
Saturday. A weak warm front will bring some clouds and perhaps a
few light showers Saturday night into early Sunday. It will be
warmer and more humid from Sunday on.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am EDT...a clear to partly cloudy sunrise across the region.
Any patchy fog appeared limited to the coolest mountain valleys...
namely in southern Vermont. Otherwise no fog and temperatures
ranging from the middle 40s across those coldest sheltered valleys...to
upper 50s in the immediate capital region.
Lots of sunshine this morning...will be followed by some diurnal
cumulus midday and afternoon...sct-bkn...most prevalent over the higher
H850 temperatures look to be +11c to +12c...which with pretty good mixing...will
translate to high temperatures 75-80 in the valleys (warmest in the middle
Hudson valley)...70-75 higher terrain.
Dewpoints in the 50s will yield comfortable humidity levels.
A west wind will increase to around 10 miles per hour...with a few higher afternoon gusts.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
high pressure will remain in control of our weather through Saturday.
Tonight looks clear to partly cloudy at most...allowing for pretty good
radiational cooling...despite a little warm air advection aloft.
Lows will range from the middle 40s across the Adirondacks and portions of
the southern greens and even Catskills and Berkshires...to the lower to middle
50s most other places. We believe there will be a bit more in the way of
patchy fog...so included it in the grids.
High pressure remains in control Saturday. H850 temperatures look to rise a
couple of degrees. More sunshine is expected and high temperatures
75-80 Highlands...80-85 in the valleys. The dewpoints will creep up a little...
but generally hold in the 50s so another fairly comfortable day with moderate
levels of humidity.
The wind will turn southerly 5-10 miles per hour.
Saturday night...high pressure weakens and moves offshore. A weak warm front will
move over the region providing some clouds and perhaps a few showers...mainly
north and west of the capital region. A rumble of thunder is possible...but at this
point unlikely...so no mention in the forecast.
With the clouds overnight lows will slightly higher than tonight...
generally 55-60 except 50-55 in the cooler remote areas.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
mainly dry and very warm conditions are expected for much of the
long term period from Sunday through Thursday as a large ridge of
high pressure builds from the surface to aloft...across the northeast.
Have placed slight chance probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms across
northwest third of forecast area from Sunday into Monday as a weak frontal
boundary will be draped just to the north of this area. The
remainder of the long term period is expected to be dry although
humidity levels will be increasing during the period with dewpoints
rising into the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Highs are expected to range from middle 70s to middle 80s on Sunday...middle
70s to around 90 on Monday...and upper 70s to lower 90s Tuesday
through Thursday. Lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to middle
60s each night from Sunday night through Wednesday night.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
it looks as if VFR flying conditions will prevail throughout the day.
Just enough of a breeze above the boundary layer and patchy middle
level clouds prevented fog from forming at the taf sites...
although a few scattered clouds at 500 above ground level were reported at kpsf.
Some midday scattered-broken cumulus will form with bases 4kft-5kft. Visibility
will be unlimited. A west will reach around 10kts with a few higher
afternoon gusts (more west-southwest at kgfl).
Tonight will be mostly clear with the wind diminishing to calm.
Some fog will likely form...after 06z. For now...called it IFR
mist (2sm) at kgfl after 06z...IFR mist (2sm) at kspf after 08z...
but only mifg at kpou and kalb with no restrictions for now.
Until after 06z.
Saturday through tuesday: other than some patchy early morning
fog...no operational impact. No sig weather.
it looks mainly dry through early next week across our region. A full
or nearly full recovery should be realized each night with at least some
There could be widely scattered showers across the Adirondacks on
Saturday night and perhaps a stray thunderstorm in the same area
Sunday and Monday afternoon...but that would be the exception.
Otherwise it will start out seasonable...but getting warm to hot as
head into early next week. The relative humidity will be moderate
this afternoon and again Saturday...in the 40s. The relative humidity
looks to creep up heading into early next week.
The wind will be west or southwest today 5-10 miles per hour...light or calm tonight...
then southerly 5-10 miles per hour on Saturday.
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.
No significant rainfall is forecast to fall for at least the
next five days as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
River levels will continue to run on the low side throughout this time
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on