Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 700 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL OVER
MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS WELL AS
INTO THE UPSLOPE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. 
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AWHILE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT. 

TEMPERATURES WERE 30-35 IN THE VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. 
FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TINKERED WITH HOURLY GRIDS WHILE
OVERALL THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED FINE. 


LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE
NE CONUS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES COLDER AND WINDS ALIGNED IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION...EXPECT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE ADIRONDACKMOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DROP SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 10F OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE ENDING
12Z FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR ALL
THE TAFS (EXCEPT KPOU) SO WE WILL USE THE VCSH. WE DID INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR 3SM -SHSN AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR (ALL VFR AT KPOU). A NORTH WEST WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT KALB THROUGH 04Z.

THE WIND WILL PICK AGAIN AFTER THE MORNING PEAK THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF. 


OUTLOOK (18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NW
WINDS...GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THRU THURSDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHSN. 

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN FRIDAY. POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY.  

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NWLY WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. 

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations