Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
714 PM EDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Synopsis...
a cold front will continue to push southward across the area into
this evening. Cooler air will filter into the region behind the
front tonight...as high pressure approaches from southeast Canada.
The center of the high will settle across New England on
Friday...with a return southerly flow developing. As the high moves
off the New England coast on Saturday...increasing southerly flow
will allow temperatures to warm back to normal. Above normal
temperatures are then expected for Saturday night into
Sunday...ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
cold front making progress through the area this evening and
clouds are decreasing in coverage. Sky should become mostly clear
everywhere and winds should become light to calm. Just some minor
adjustments to sky cover and temperatures through the night based
on current data and trends.

Frost/freeze conditions still appear likely for areas north of the
capital district and Mohawk Valley. Will leave current headlines as
is...and will not expand any farther south since high pressure will
crest just to our north which will allow a slight northerly breeze
to persist across central and southern areas...along with a scattered-broken
clouds well into this evening. Overnight lows will be below normal
ranging from upper 20s in the western Adirondacks to lower to middle
40s across the middle Hudson Valley and Litchfield CT.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
Friday will feature dry conditions with plenty of sunshine...as high
pressure drifts southeastward through New England. After a cool
start...temperatures should rebound nicely but will be 5-10 degrees
below normal. A return southerly flow and tighter pressure gradient
Friday night will result in milder temperatures compared to Thursday
night with continued dry conditions.

The upper level pattern will amplify Saturday into Saturday
night...as a trough digs across the Great Lakes with some ridging
along the northeast coastline. With low pressure organizing and
tracking northeastward from Ontario into Quebec...southerly flow
will strengthen and allow for increasing low level moisture and
milder temperatures. There will be some patchy warm advection clouds
around on Saturday...which will temper the warming somewhat. Still
highs should moderate back to normal. Saturday night looks to be
mild with continued southerly flow and patchy clouds...especially
across northern areas. Will mention chance probability of precipitation across the western
Adirondacks late Saturday night ahead of a cold front advancing
eastward across the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
a cold front will approach and move across the region Sunday
aftn/eve...followed by upper level trofiness lingering over the area
through Tuesday. Likely probability of precipitation have been forecast across almost the
entire region along and ahead of the slow moving cold front Sunday
and early Sunday night. Probability of precipitation decrease to only chance levels late
Sunday night...with slight chance of chance probability of precipitation continuing across
northern areas Monday through Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs
move through the upper level longwave trough position...but mainly dry
conditions have been forecast for southern areas.

From Tuesday night through Thursday...another sprawling high
pressure area will build southeastward from Canada with fair but
cool weather.

Except for Sunday when temperatures will be several degrees above normal in
the southerly flow ahead of the front...the long-term period will
feature mainly below normal temperatures. Highs Sunday will be in the upper
60s and 70s. Lows Sunday night in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Highs
Monday through Wednesday generally in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Lows
Monday and Tuesday night in the middle 30s to middle 40s...and a little
cooler Wednesday night with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Highs
Thursday will be in the upper 50s to around 70.

&&

Aviation /23z Thursday through Tuesday/...
clouds are decreasing as the cold front is in the process of
exiting the region. Winds should become light to near calm...and
there could be some intervals of fog and low ceilings at kgfl and
kpsf between 06z-12z with the radiational cooling. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected through the period ending 00z Saturday.

Light northeast to northwest winds at 6 knots or less should continue
tonight and tomorrow morning...then become south to southeast
tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: high operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday night to tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
a cold front will continue to push southward across the area into
this evening. Cooler air will filter into the region behind the
front tonight...as high pressure approaches from southeast Canada.
The center of the high will settle across New England on
Friday...with a return southerly flow developing. As the high moves
off the New England coast on Saturday...increasing southerly flow
will allow temperatures to warm back to normal. Above normal
temperatures are then expected for Saturday night into
Sunday...ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes.

Relative humidity values will increase to around 80 to 100 percent
tonight...then drop to minimum values of between 25 and 40 percent
Friday afternoon. Maximum relative humidity values Friday night are expected
to be around 90 to 100 percent.

Winds tonight will become northerly around 5 miles per hour or less. Winds on
Friday will gradually shift from northeast to southeast at 5 to 10
miles per hour. Winds Friday night are expected to be south-southeast around 5
to 10 miles per hour.

&&

Hydrology...
no Hydro problems are anticipated through at least the next 5 days.

High pressure will influence our weather through Saturday with dry
conditions. The next chance of showers will be on Sunday...as a cold
front pushes through the area. Generally one quarter to one half
inch of rainfall is expected on Sunday...which will have little to
no impact on main Stem river levels.

Dry conditions will return for Monday of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Friday for nyz041-043-
082>084.
Freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EDT Friday for nyz032-033-042.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Friday for vtz013>015.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jpv
near term...jpv/NAS
short term...jpv
long term...gjm
aviation...NAS
fire weather...jpv
hydrology...jpv

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations