Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
651 am EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
a wave of low pressure will continue to track along a frontal
boundary south of the region today...which will result in a light
snowfall for areas well south of Albany. High pressure building
eastward from the central U.S. Will push the frontal boundary
offshore tonight...as Arctic air filters back into our region. The
Arctic air mass will remain in place through Friday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 633 am EST...secondary cold front has finally pushed
through the entire area with temperatures dropping into the teens
and 20s this morning with a northwest breeze making it feel
colder. The cold and dry air mass rushing in is creating a barrier
to snow making any farther north than the southern tier of
Dry conditions still occurring across most of the area...except
for far southeast Ulster...Dutchess and Litchfield
counties...where some light snow continues to fall. Radar imagery
looks very similar to a few hours ago...with not much change noted
where snow is occurring. So will maintain likely probability of precipitation for these
areas into the late morning hours before decreasing to chance.
Snow totals of only 1-2 inches expected across extreme southeast
Ulster...southern Dutchess and southern Litchfield. A dusting is
possible for areas slightly farther north...but still well south
of the capital region.
Temperatures will be much colder than yesterday...as cold advection
continues all day. Temperatures will not rise much...if at all
across much of the region today. Highs will only be in the 20s for
valley locations...and teens to near 20 across the higher terrain.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
surface high pressure will build eastward across the Ohio Valley and
middle Atlantic region tonight...with ridging extending northward in
the northeast Continental U.S.. this will provide for clearing skies and very
cold temperatures tonight. There is still expected to be a bit of a
northwest breeze until the ridge builds in late...so some borderline
advisory level wind chill values are possible over mainly the higher
terrain west of the Hudson Valley. Since confidence is marginal at
this time...will hold off on issuing an advisory but will continue
to mention the threat in the severe weather potential statement for possible issuance later today.
Actual air temperatures are expected to drop to around 5 below to 5
above zero from the capital district south...with 5 to 15 below zero
Friday looks to be a dry and cold day...although considering
temperatures will start out below zero in many locations...highs in
the teens to lower 20s will be a decent rise. Winds look to be
rather light though...as high pressure gradually shifts southward to
the Middle Atlantic States. Dry conditions are expected across most of
the area through Friday night...although a few snow showers will be
possible across the western Adirondacks towards dawn Saturday as an
upper level disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. It will be
another cold night...but not nearly as cold as the night before due
to increasing clouds.
Chances for mainly isolated to scattered snow showers will gradually
increase on Saturday...as the aforementioned disturbance and
associated surface trough move into the region. Greatest coverage
of snow showers will be across the west facing slopes of the higher
terrain. Some minor accumulations will be possible...mainly over the
western Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. Temperatures will
moderate ahead of the surface trough...with middle 20s in the higher
terrain and upper 20s to lower 30s in the valleys. Still below
normal...but an improvement over the previous few days.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
moderating temperatures with seasonably warm readings expected as we
head into middle week with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
The last time the high temperature was at least 50 degrees at Albany
New York was back on December 27th...at Poughkeepsie New York and Bennington Vermont
was back on January 4th and at Glens Falls New York and Pittsfield Massachusetts was
on December 25th.
A broad longwave trough will remain over the region with short wave
troughs moving through the northern stream. There is fairly good
agreement with the timing of the troughs to move over the region
Saturday night and again Monday. There are some subtle difference
with regards to amplitude however moisture should be rather limited.
The better chances for showers should be across the southern
Adirondacks...western Mohawk Valley into the eastern Catskills. Dry
weather returns for the middle week with surface ridging dominating.
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
a wave of low pressure continues to move along a frontal boundary
draped across the Middle Atlantic States. It will head off the coast
this morning and out to sea today. The precipitation shield associated
with the low has extended as far north as the Lower/Middle Hudson
Valley and southern New England. Light snow has occurred at kpou
and the threat should continue until around 15z then the precipitation
shifts to the south and east. A secondary cold front has also
moved across the area which shifted the winds more northerly and
has opened the door to a colder and drier airmass to filter in. Higher
pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and tonight
while aloft the upper short wave trough approaches during the day
and moves across the region this evening.
Outside the possibly MVFR conditions at kpou this morning VFR conditions
are expected through the taf period...12z/Friday.
Northwest to north winds generally 10 to 15 knots with gusts to up
to around 25 knots will decrease some as the afternoon progresses
with winds diminishing tonight.
Friday-Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sat-Mon: low operational impact. Slight chance shsn.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through the next 5 days.
Another Arctic air mass will build in today through Friday...with
temperatures falling back well below freezing. The Arctic air will
retreat over the weekend...but temperatures should still average
A moderating trend is then expected early next week with near normal
temperatures and above freezing daytime temperatures. Some snow will start
to melt...but will be on a diurnal cycle with temperatures falling back
below freezing at night.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our