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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
459 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

a cold front will move across the region tonight...preceded by
much warmer than normal temperatures and some showers. Behind the
front...a seasonably cold air mass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 445 PM EST...temperatures are exceptionally mild across the
region...generally in the 50s to the middle 60s. Clouds continue to
increase and rain showers have begun to move into the Adirondacks.
The rain showers are ahead of a cold front which will move
southeast across the region overnight. Showers will be most
numerous from the Adirondacks to the lake geroge Saratoga region
and the mohwak valley during the first half of the night...and
have forecast likely or higher probability of precipitation in those areas. The showers
will tend to fall apart during the night as dynamic support have only forecast chance probability of precipitation for the rest of the

Much colder air (compared to todays temps) will move in behind
the front...and if the showers linger long enough over the
Adirondacks...they may change to snow showers for a brief period.

Lows will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s over the Adirondacks...
and upper 30s to middle 40s elsewhere.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
there continues to be some disagreements in the model solutions as
to how quickly or slowly the cold front sinks south through the
region and how soon any lingering showers end on Saturday.
Considering how strong the ridging is over the Atlantic...and the
current slow progress of northern stream upper dynamics in
Canada...will acknowledge the potential for clouds and showers to
linger into Saturday afternoon over the lower half of the forecast
area. Slow clearing is expected over the northern half. Cold
advection will not be too strong Saturday with high pressure
building in from well west of our region. Highs will be in the
upper 30s to around 50.

Weak high pressure controls our weather Saturday night with a
mainly clear sky...with some lingering clouds decreasing in
coverage in the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT early at night. Light
winds and the clearing sky should support temperatures falling to
between around 20 and 30.

A reinforcing shot of colder air arrives Sunday with a dry cold
frontal passage and high pressure building in from Canada. Mean
upper trough axis not highly amplified so the core of coldest air
should stay north of our region. Highs Sunday will be in the middle
30s to the 40s. Lows Sunday night in the upper teens and 20s.


Long term /Monday through Friday/...
the period starts out on Monday with surface high pressure initially
positioned along the New England coast...but quickly departing
offshore. A dry day is expected with temperatures near normal. A
warm is then forecast to approach from the Ohio Valley region late
Monday night into Tuesday. This system will bring the next chance of
precipitation to the area. The GFS is faster with timing compared to the
ECMWF/ggem. Both the European model (ecmwf) and ggem do not bring any precipitation in before
sunrise Tuesday. To account for the model differences...will mention
just a slight chance of snow showers west of the capital district
late Monday night.

As the warm front pushes northward across the region...chances for
showers will increase during the day Tuesday. Models trending
warmer...although it is still possible for the precipitation to begin as a
brief period of snow or rain mixed with snow across the higher
terrain. A strengthening S-SW flow aloft will continue to result in
rain showers affecting the area into Tuesday night...with mild
overnight temperatures.

The first in a series of cold fronts will move through towards
Wednesday morning...and could allow the rain showers to end as some
snow showers across the western/southern Adirondacks. Cooler air
will start to filter in Wednesday...however a second and more
substantial cold front looks to push through Wednesday night.
Upslope/lake enhanced snow showers will be possible associated with
the front moving through in favored areas.

Temperatures will cool back down closer to normal by
Thursday...although there are model differences showing a potential
closed low moving across northern areas /ECMWF/ or high pressure
building in with a weaker trough aloft /GFS/. Either way colder air
will filter in with improving conditions by late Thursday.


Aviation /22z Friday through Wednesday/...
a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes and southeast
Canada will cross the region overnight into early Saturday
morning...with chances for showers increasing during the late
evening and overnight hours from kgfl-kalb-kpsf where conditions
are expected to deteriorate to MVFR within the showers. The
showers are expected to end by middle morning on Saturday with
conditions improving to VFR thereafter.

Surface winds will be S-SW today around 6-12 kts with occasionally
higher gusts...especially at kalb/kpsf. Winds will shift to the
north-northwest late tonight in wake of the cold frontal passage generally
between 5 and 8 kts.


Saturday night through Monday night: no operational impact. No
sig weather.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.


Fire weather...
a cold front will move across the region tonight...preceded by
much warmer than normal temperatures and some showers. Behind the
front...a seasonably cold air mass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.

We will end our fire weather weather forecast
(fwf) and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon issuance on
November 30th.


the next chance of showers will be tonight into Saturday. Rainfall
amounts with this system will be light...generally less than a
quarter inch. So little or no response is expected on any stream
or rivers within our hydrological service area.

It will turn dry later Saturday into early next week.

The next chance of significant precipitation will be Tuesday...
will should be mainly in the form of rain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...gjm
short term...gjm
long term...wasula
fire weather...gjm/NAS

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