Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1254 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
a cold frontal boundary will move south of the region this
afternoon before stalling. A wave of low pressure is then expected
to track along the boundary tonight through Thursday...which will
result in a mainly light snowfall for areas south of Albany.
Arctic air will filter into the region late tonight...and will
last through the rest of the work week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1245 PM EST...some breaks in the clouds have developed
across portions of the upper Hudson River valley/southern
Adirondacks. Temperatures in some valley areas have reached around
40...and may climb an additional couple of degrees before cold air
advection allows temperatures to settle back downward later this
afternoon. Across higher elevations...temperatures are currently in the
Lower/Middle 30s...except for some 20s across highest elevations
within the western Adirondacks.
Elsewhere...skies remain mostly cloudy. A few thin spots in the
overcast will be possible for areas near and especially north of I-90 through
this afternoon. Across far southern areas...it appears that the
threat for additional rainfall through late afternoon has
diminished. Have kept just some slight chance probability of precipitation for this
region...in case some sprinkles develop from the persistent middle
level cloud deck.
Temperatures should rise a couple of degrees from present levels in most
valleys...before gradually falling later this afternoon. Across
higher terrain...maximum temperatures are most likely being met...and should
gradually fall slightly through this afternoon.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
Arctic air will filter into the region tonight...while moisture
along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the middle
Atlantic region moves northeastward into the southern portion of our
forecast area. Thermal profiles from forecast soundings look to be
cold enough for all snow tonight. This system is expected to impact
mainly the southern three counties of Ulster...Dutchess and
Litchfield where likely probability of precipitation are mentioned. The northern edge of
some light snow may scrape northern portions of the middle Hudson
Valley...northeast Catskills...central Taconics and southern
Berkshires as well...but this is less certain. Either way quantitative precipitation forecast looks
to be light as the brunt of moisture and stronger forcing will be
south across the Middle Atlantic States.
Similar weather expected for Thursday...as our entire area will be
firmly entrenched in the Arctic air mass and light snow should
continue across the southern tier counties of Ulster...Dutchess and
Litchfield. Again...this area will be on the northern periphery of
the system and models are in good agreement indicating around 1-3
inches of accumulation in these areas. Any snow slightly farther
north will be generally less than an inch and confined to locations
south of Albany. High temperatures will only reach the teens to lower 20s
across the region with a northwest breeze persisting.
Any lingering snow across southern areas should taper off by
Thursday evening...leaving cold and dry conditions region-wide for
Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will be cresting over the
Ohio Valley...with ridging extending northeastward into our region.
The Arctic air mass will linger through Friday...with temperatures
similar to Thursday and remaining well below normal for early March.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
starting out with another cold air mass impacting the region...however
temperatures are expected to moderate with seasonal readings as we head into
early next week.
A broad longwave trough is expected to remain over the region with short
wave troughs moving through the northern stream over the weekend
into early next week with some rise in heights and the flow
flattening as we head into Tuesday.
The models have timing and amplitude differences with the short
wave troughs that move through...so have favored guidance from the
weather prediction center for forecast consistency. At this time
have chances for showers Saturday night and again on Monday as the
short wave troughs approach. Moisture will be rather limited with
the better chances for showers across the southern
Adirondacks...western Mohawk Valley into the eastern Catskills.
Expecting to start out with lows in the singles digits across the forecast
area Friday night with a rebound into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday
as a broad southwest flow develops ahead of the approaching short
wave trough. These readings are around 5 degrees below normal. Not
as cold for Saturday night generally 10 to 20 degrees with highs Sunday
similar to saturday's. By Tuesday anticipating temperatures into
the lower 40s up the Hudson River valley which would be normal for
this time of year. The last time the high temperature was 40
degrees in Albany was back on January 18th...for Glens Falls
January 5th and Poughkeepsie February 22nd.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
MVFR/VFR flying conditions will prevail this afternoon before a
return to MVFR/IFR flying conditions tonight associated with light
snow at kpou/kpsf...with VFR conditions at kalb and kgfl.
This afternoon...a cold front will continue to push through the
region early this afternoon and stall across the middle-Atlantic
region...with MVFR ceilings expected to improve to VFR at the taf
sites by 20z associated with increased daytime mixing. Winds will be
westerly around 10 knots...with gusts up to 20 knots possible
especially at kalb and kpsf.
Tonight into Thursday...a wave of low pressure will form and ride up
along the stalled cold front tonight...bringing renewed chances for
light snow to kpou...with VFR flying conditions prevailing at kalb
and kgfl. Have indicated vcsh at kpou beginning at 00z...with
MVFR/IFR visibilities associated with light snow beginning at 03z.
Have gone with vcsh at kpsf as some light flurries may reach into
portions of western New England. Light snow at kpou should continue
through 12z Thursday morning before tapering off to widely scattered
showers as the front shifts off to the east. MVFR/VFR ceilings are
expected to linger at kpou and kpsf through much of Thursday morning.
Winds will shift to the northwest overnight and into Thursday
generally around 5-10 knots.
Thursday night-Sun: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through the next 5 days.
A brief warmup will occur today...but the short timing and magnitude
of the warmth will not be enough to cause any Hydro concerns.
Another Arctic air mass will build in tonight through Friday...with
temperatures falling back well below freezing.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our