Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1239 am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015
Nor'easter positioned east of Cape Cod will track northeastward
and pull away towards the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday
morning. This will result in decreasing snow across the region
tonight. High pressure will build into the region from the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday...bringing dry conditions with a cold air mass
in place. The high will shift east of the region on Thursday...as
a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. This system
is expected to bring accumulating snowfall to the region late
Thursday into Friday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1230 am EST...radar still following some bands of light snow
showers (or really in some cases) just flurries. For this
update...just went scattered snow showers/flurries from the Hudson
Valley eastward...isolated snow showers further west. Any
frontogenesis was in the process was weakening and lifting back to
the east of our area.
Any additional accumulations of snow will be negligible at this
point...so have no mention in the grids. A slightly bigger problem
might be some blowing snow...mainly over the higher terrain to the
east of the Hudson Valley...very localized.
With the Prospect of clouds all night..temperatures should not
fall much through the night but winds very slow to diminish will
result in some cold wind chills...but not cold enough for
advisories. There is a chance that the clouds could thin in a few
places...allowing temperatures to dip in a few spots...but for
now...odds are against that happening.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be around 10 degrees
locally in the capital region and surrounding areas...zero to single
numbers north...and teens south.
Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday night/...
dry conditions expected on Wednesday as high pressure ridges in from
the Ohio Valley. Still with a northwesterly flow temperatures will
likely run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Much of the region
should experience plenty of sunshine through the day. Tranquil
weather should continue through Wednesday night as the high
gradually drifts over the region. With wind speeds diminishing and
fresh snow cover on the ground...temperatures are expected to drop to
the -5 to 5 above range for mins across the region.
Clouds will increase on Thursday associated with a low pressure
system and upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes...with
several pieces of short wave energy. While this dynamic system will
have limited moisture to work with...cyclonic vorticity advection
and isentropic lift will provide enough large scale ascent for a
widespread accumulating snowfall across the region. Will mention
likely probability of precipitation across far western areas late in the day Thursday...with
the brunt of the snowfall expected to occur Thursday night. As of
now it appears that a 2-4 inch snow fall will occur across much of
the area...however higher amounts of 3-6 inches are possible across
the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Will mention the
potential for winter weather advisories for these western areas in
the severe weather potential statement.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
cyclonic upper flow with one piece of upper energy and associated
snows exiting Friday...and some cold advection. Some lake effect
snows into the western Mohawk Valley...trending into the Schoharie
valley and the eastern Catskills Friday night and Saturday...as low
level flow turns from west to northwest. Dry weather later Saturday
into early Sunday. Another strong northern stream piece of upper
energy tracks through the region later Sunday through Monday...with
a chance for some accumulating snow.
Quite a bit of spread as to placement of the boundary layer thermal
gradient...which is a first hint that some areas could see mixed
precipitation...depending on the storm track. This far out...just
going chances for snow...again...wherever there is the potential for
all snow...there is a suggestion from most guidance sources for
accumulating snow. Temperatures through Tuesday look to be a bit
Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
lingering light snow showers/flurries will impact mainly kpsf as
seen in the current metars. Otherwise...mainly VFR/MVFR ceilings across
the taf sites. Any snow will diminish by sunrise as higher pressure
builds into the region. Then VFR conditions will prevail as drier
air and rising pressures return.
North to northwest winds should still be steady around 10 knots much of
night and into the day Wednesday then diminish to less than 10 knots
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely snow.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of snow.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of snow.
no significant Hydro problems are expected through the next five
Precipitation that does occur will be in the form of snow...with
snowfall ending tonight...with additional snow likely late Thursday
Ice will continue to thicken on rivers...streams...creeks...lakes
and other bodies of water.
The Eagle bridge gage on the hoosic river continues to be hampered
by ice effects.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.