Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1245 PM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
expect periods of light rain or drizzle this afternoon
with a few pockets freezing rain still possible in southern
Vermont. Steadier rain is expected later tonight into
Wednesday...before tapering off to scattered rain and
mountain snow showers on Wednesday night into
Thursday. Dry weather...along with above normal
temperatures...will be in place for late in the week
and into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the Freezing Rain Advisory has been allowed to expire.
As of noon...most areas reported temperatures above freezing generally
in the middle to upper 30s. The only exception was in southern
Vermont with temperatures still at or slightly below freezing.
However...even there we expect them to rise above freezing in the
next hour or so.
Therefore...we allowed the Freezing Rain Advisory to expire.
From here on in expect only intermittent very light rain or
drizzle this afternoon...except for those pockets of light
freezing rain in southern Vermont. We have issued special weather
statements concerning that brief freezing rain.
Temperatures will rise a couple more degrees topping out between
35 to 40...except lower or middle 40s in the middle Hudson Valley.
The wind will be light to northeast in the valleys around 5 miles per hour...
east to southeast across the higher terrain 5 to 15 miles per hour.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
the warm front will continue to lift northward overnight...along
with a secondary area of low pressure that develops off the Jersey
Shore this evening. This will continue to allow for periods of
light rainfall tonight. Temperatures look to continue to hold steady or
even slightly rise into the upper 30s to low 40s...so no threat
for any freezing/frozen precipitation tonight. Rainfall will generally be
light in intensity...but should be fairly steady for most of the
By Wednesday...the surface warm front will be north of the area.
However...the storm/S cold front will be slowly approaching from
the west. Yet another wave of low pressure will develop along this
boundary and ride northward along it as the front moves into the
area. This will allow for more steady rain through the day on
Wednesday. Temperatures look to be in the 40s across the area...with
continued cloudy conditions.
The storm/S cold front looks to finally cross through the area by
Wednesday night...with winds switching to a westerly
direction behind the boundary...and cooler air starting to move
into the area aloft. The large closed off upper level low will be
moving towards the area from the Great Lakes. Some additional
precipitation will occur Wednesday night on the backside of the departing
surface low...along with the cyclonic flow associated with the upper
level low. Showers of rain will be ongoing...and these look to
change to snow showers for the Adirondacks and other northern
areas. These showers will continue into the day on Thursday...as
the upper low slides across the area towards New England. 1-3
inches of snow is possible for the Adirondacks between Wednesday night
and Thursday...with little to no snow accumulation elsewhere.
Cannot rule out a few flakes mixing in for the capital
region...otherwise precipitation will just be rain showers as boundary
layer temperatures should remain just warm enough. Lows on Wednesday night
look to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s...with highs on Thursday
in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
Precipitation will finally taper off for Thursday night as the upper low
continues to move away...with just a lingering snow shower or
flurry over the western Adirondacks. Skies will finally start to
clear out after several days of mostly cloudy skies. Min temperatures
will be in the 20s for most of the area...with low 30s for the
capital region...middle Hudson Valley...and southern Litchfield
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
overall anticipating mainly dry weather with slightly above
normal temperatures. Overall guidance is in fairly good agreement
regarding the longwave pattern with a split flow continuing which
will keep the cold air to our north. However the flow is rather
fast with many pieces of energy moving through it.
A short wave trough is expected to approach and move across the
northeastern United States on Friday. At this time...it appears
chances for snow/rain showers should be confined to the southern
Adirondacks into the western Mohawk Valley. Ridging is then expected
to build in at the surface and aloft as we head into the weekend.
Another short wave trough quickly moving across Canada is expected
to pass over the northeast Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures should be near seasonable levels Friday with readings
moderating over the weekend and running about 5 degrees above normal.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
look for mainly VFR conditions to deteriorate to MVFR and even
occasional IFR conditions as we work through the evening peak.
A slow moving warm front will bring the first batch of light rain
to the tafs through the afternoon. After a break...still featuring
some patchy drizzle...expect another round of more steadier rain
later tonight and especially Wednesday as an occluded front and
wave along it...approaches our region.
Conditions should drop to MVFR and even low MVFR (extra fuel
required) at or after the evening peak. Conditions will likely
drop first at kpou and then at kpsf...followed by the other tafs.
Conditions will remain MVFR or occasionally IFR (mainly low cigs)
The wind will be light or even calm through the evening hours...
becoming southeast 5-10 kts as we head into Wednesday.
Rain will continue to spread/move northward today with rain continuing
through tonight as the system's warm approaches and moves through
followed by the system's cold front. IFR conditions are expected to
develop by this afternoon at kpou and during the afternoon at
kalb...kgfl and kpsf. IFR conditions are then expected to persist
through the taf period...12z/Wednesday.
Wednesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Thu: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra/shsn.
Thursday night-Sat: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no hydrologic problems are anticipated over the next few days.
A frontal system will bring periods of light rain today into
Wednesday. Around an inch of rain will occur for most of the area
through this time period. This will allow for rises on rivers and
streams...but they should remain within their banks. The rainfall
should be light in intensity for most of the time.
Dry weather will return for the late week period into the
weekend...allowing for rivers to recede.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
November 2015 GOES down in the record books as one of the warmest for
Albany and Poughkeepsie...and one the warmest and driest for Glens Falls.
At albany: ties for 4th warmest (45.5 degrees)
at poughkeepsie: 3rd warmest 46.3 degrees)
at glens falls: 2nd warmest (42.8 degrees) and 2nd driest (1.05 inches)
Autumn 2015 will also go down in the records book as one of the warmest
on records for Albany and Glens Falls...and the warmest for Poughkeepsie.
At albany: 4th warmest (54.6 degrees)
at glens falls: 3rd warmest (51.8 degrees)
at poughkeepsie: warmest (55.7 degrees) breaking the old record set back
in 2005 by 0.2 degrees