Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
152 am EDT Wednesday may 6 2015

a disturbance moving along a stalled frontal boundary
over the Middle Atlantic States may bring some light rain showers to
southern areas this morning...otherwise clouds will break for
sunshine with another warm afternoon expected today. Dry conditions
with warm temperatures look to continue Thursday into Friday...with
the chance for rain showers increasing over the weekend and into
early next week.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 152 am...a stalled frontal boundary is situated to the south over
the middle Atlantic region. A middle level disturbance moving along this
boundary is producing some rain showers...which are currently over
central New York and NE PA. As these showers slide to the E-se...they
will clip the southern Catskills...middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT
through the morning hours. The 3km hrrr shows this activity to be
fairy light in intensity...and most areas may not wind up seeing
much measurable precipitation. Still...will go with slight chance/chance probability of precipitation
across the region for the possibility of some light rain showers.

Further should remain dry. Infrared satellite imagery shows
a band of clouds sinking skies will become partly
to mostly clear through the late night hours for areas from the
capital region on northward. Further south...partly to mostly
cloudy skies should remain thanks to the nearby frontal
boundary...and upstream precipitation expected to move through the

Low temperatures look to range from the upper 30s in the Adirondacks to
the middle 50s in southern areas.


Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday night/...
other than chance of a brief shower across far southern areas early
Wednesday morning...dry conditions and decreasing clouds will result
in a rather pleasant may afternoon with surface high pressure in
control. Temperatures will continue to be above normal with most
areas warming into the lower to middle 70s. It will take longer into
the afternoon for southern areas to warm due to early cloud cover.

Dry and warm conditions will then persist from through Thursday an expansive middle and upper level ridge builds across the
region. Temperatures should warm a few more degrees for Thursday as
temperatures aloft most areas should have highs in the upper
70s to near 80. Overnight lows will initially be cool and seasonable
Wednesday night...but are expected to be around 5-10 degrees warmer
Thursday night as low level moisture starts to increase which will
not allow for cooling to be as efficient.


Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
expecting above normal temperatures Friday through the weekend with
increasing chances for convection Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures begin
to cool off early next week as a surface low heads towards the
Saint Lawrence valley by Tuesday...and may bring the region the
first widespread rainfall event since the about the 21st of April.

On Friday the region will still be dominated by ridging at the
surface and aloft...and dry and warm weather is forecast for Friday
and Friday night. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

During the weekend a weak frontal boundary will try to push into the
region...but will likely become nearly stationary across northern New York
and northern New England. The Albany forecast area will remain in a
mild southwesterly flow which will become increasingly moist during
the weekend. Have forecast probability of precipitation of 20 to 40 percent during the
weekend...with the highest probability of precipitation across northern areas and during the
afternoon/evening hours. There may also be thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening hours as well. The highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s
to middle 80s. Lows Saturday night in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints will also be increasing
during the weekend...rising to around 60 in some areas by Sunday...
which will make it feel humid for the first time since last Summer.
Lows Sunday night will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

The low pressure system will begin to approach the region on Monday
and have forecast probability of precipitation of 35 to 45 percent...rising to 50 to 60
percent by Tuesday as the low heads down the Saint Lawrence valley.
Due to more widespread cloudiness and will be a little
cooler. Highs Monday will be 70 to 80. Lows Monday night in the 50s.
Highs Tuesday in the middle 60s to lower 70s.


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period ending 06z/Thursday.

A cold front has become stalled just to the south of the area across
Pennsylvania and the New York metropolitan area. A weak disturbance
moving along the boundary is resulting in some light rain showers
in the vicinity of the boundary. However the likelihood any showers
will impact kpou is too low to include in the taf. Otherwise middle/high
level clouds will continue to stream across the region decreasing
after sunrise. A few cumulus clouds should develop with the heating
of the day. With the loss of heating any cumulus clouds will dissipate
and clear skies are expected for the night.

Light and variable to calm winds area expected.

Thursday-Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sat: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sat night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sun: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.


Fire weather...
..low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent expected
..high Haines index values of 5 to 6 expected Wednesday...

Significant rainfall /greater than a quarter of an inch/ has not
occurred in well over a week across the region and state officials
have noted that Forest fuels are rather dry at this time.

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build into our
region tonight...while a frontal boundary stalls across the middle
Atlantic region. A disturbance tracking along the front will bring a
chance of showers to the Catskills late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Otherwise dry conditions and above normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the rest of the work a large
ridge of high builds in at all levels of the atmosphere.

Wetting rainfall is not likely to occur until at least the weekend
when a frontal boundary approaches from the north and west. Until
then temperatures will be above normal with very little if any
chance for rainfall.

Relative humidity values will increase to around 60 to 90 percent
tonight...then drop to very low values of 20 to 30 percent on
Wednesday. Relative humidity will recover to between 70 and 95 percent Wednesday

Winds will be rather light through the next few days. Winds tonight
will be northerly around 5 miles per hour or less...becoming variable on
Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night will be northwesterly around 5 miles per hour
or less.


scattered light rain showers are possible across the far southern
portion of the Hydro service area late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Otherwise dry weather should return for Wednesday afternoon
through the remainder of the high pressure becomes
established across the region.

Most areas will see little to no precipitation over the next few
days...except for far southern areas...such as the southeastern
Catskills...middle Hudson Valley...and northwest CT...where only a few
hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch may fall.

As a result...rivers and streams will either hold steady or slowly
recede through the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...frugis
short term...jpv
long term...gjm
fire weather...frugis/jpv

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations