Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
459 PM EST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
high pressure will build back in over the entire region tonight
into Wednesday. This high will slide offshore creating a
southwesterly flow of increasing mild air for Thanksgiving and
especially Friday. A cold front will bring an end to this mild
spell by the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 455 PM EST...still dealing with some pesky snow
showers/flurries across the Adirondacks and even into the upper
Hudson Valley. These however...are expected to dissipate after 500
PM...as they are already were doing so.
There were associated with a very weak short wave working to our
north...moving to our east later this evening. After that...
heights will rise in the middle levels...building high pressure
across the entire region overnight.
There were some warm air advection type clouds to the west of Lake
Ontario...but these are expected to thin as they head east.
So clouds this evening look to diminish overnight...yield to a
mainly clear skies (only a few cirrus remaining). That in turn
will allow temperatures to fall quite a bit as radiational
conditions become optimal. Look for lows in the teens in our
northwest zones...around 20 elsewhere including the capital
The wind will be light or calm.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
the aforementioned high pressure...both at the surface and aloft
will remain in control during our short term period.
Initially it is still chilly on Wednesday...but with ample
sunshine and good mixing once more...temperatures look to rebound
close to seasonable levels during the afternoon. Look for highs
lower to middle 40s in the valleys...35-40 higher terrain.
A variable to south wind will average 5-10 miles per hour.
High pressure which will be centered over our early
Wednesday...will move offshore come Wednesday night into Friday.
This will allow for a south to southwesterly flow to become
establish which will mean a bump for temperatures Thursday and
A southerly breeze might persist (at least in select spots)
Wednesday night. There is a possibility some stratus clouds might
form in our southern areas...or further south...then get advected
northward. There is about an equal chance of this not happening.
Either way...temperatures will not be quite as cold Thursday
morning...averaging from the middle 20s in the coldest spots...to
30-35 in the Hudson Valley...especially the capital region where
a south breeze might persist much of the night.
Thanksgiving day looks mostly sunny (unless those stratus
materialize). Leaning to more sunshine we look for highs to reach
the lower to middle 50s in the valleys...45-50 higher terrain. These
values will be nearly 10 degrees above normal.
The southwesterly flow will strengthen Thursday night into
Friday...ahead of an oncoming cold front...slipping southward
Even if Friday stays mostly cloudy...it looks to be mildest day of
the week. Temperatures look to reach near 60 in the valleys/50s
higher terrain. It will be a bit breezy. If we were to break into
full sunshine (which has happened a lot this month...more so than
usual)...temperatures could soar well into the 60s. The record
high for Albany on November 27th is 66 degrees set way back in
Dry and quiet weather will continue through the entire short term
period...including for the Thanksgiving Holiday.
A strong area of surface high pressure will move over the region
tonight and slide eastward towards off the New England coast for
Wednesday. This will keep it dry with mainly clear skies and light
winds. With the clear skies/light winds tonight...temperatures will fall
down into the 20s once again. As the high starts to slide
eastward...a southerly flow will return on the backside of the
high and allow for warming aloft. This will allow temperatures to be a
little warmer on Wednesday...with upper 30s to upper 40s across
Broad SW flow will develop for Wednesday night through
Thursday...as a slow moving frontal boundary over the central part
of country runs into a developing ridge just off the eastern
Seaboard. With surface high pressure remaining close to the region off
the Atlantic coast...it will continue to be dry. Lows on Wednesday night
will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Temperatures aloft will continue to warm with rising heights for
Thanksgiving. Although mixing only looks to occur up to about 925
hpa...maximum temperatures look to reach the middle 40s to middle 50s across the
area. There may be a few more clouds on Thanksgiving as compared
to Wednesday...as the persistent southerly flow could allow for
some low level moisture to come up from the Atlantic...although
this could be more of an issue for southern areas. Temperatures on
Thursday night will only fall to the upper 30s to low 40s...as a
S-SW wind will be in place and clouds will slowly increase ahead
of the advancing storm system over the Midwest.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
models have come into better agreement regarding the upcoming
long term period.
A cold front looks to cross the region Friday night bringing
scattered showers. It looks to turn cold enough for snow showers
over our higher terrain overnight and possibly some wet flakes
into the valley.
This front is a fast mover so any precipitation associated with
it looks light. High pressure from Canada build in later Saturday
into Sunday with noticeably cooler temperatures.
Then...low pressure and a warm front from the Ohio Valley...which
originally was forecast to deepened as it tracked
northeastward...now appears to be weaker and track further south.
However...a secondary low pressure might form further west and
bring precipitation in later Tuesday. At this point...it looks
warm enough for mainly rain most places...although it could start
as a winter mix...especially north. We will carry slight chances
Sunday night into Monday...increasing chances to 30 percent Monday
night into Tuesday for now.
Look for high temperatures from lower 30s to lower 40s Saturday
through Monday...warming to middle 30s to middle 40s Tuesday.
Overnight lows will be mainly in the 30s (except upper 20s across
portions of the Adirondacks where the cold front will have worked
through by daybreak saturday). Then overnight lows for the
remainder of the period will generally be in the 20s to around 30.
Aviation /21z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24 hour taf period
ending 18z Wednesday.
A weak disturbance will bring some patchy clouds through early
evening...but these well be above the VFR/MVFR threshold.
There could be a little patchy fog overnight if the clouds
completely clear out but only a very slight chance of any IFR fog
(too low to mention even mifg at this time).
We will re- evaluate any fog threat with the 00z issuance.
The wind will be variable to south
around 5kts through early evening...becoming
even lighter or calm tonight.
Wednesday night through friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: saturday: moderate operational impact. Schc rain showers.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
dry weather is expected through much of the week.
A full recovery expected each night. Afternoon relative humidity values
will be about 40 to 50 percent Wednesday afternoon...a bit higher
Thursday and Friday...50 to 60 percent. It will turn mild
Thanksgiving and especially Friday afternoon.
A light south to southeast wind 5-10 miles per hour Wednesday afternoon and
again on Thanksgiving day...increasing out of the south
10-15 miles per hour on Friday.
The next chance of precipitation looks to be Friday night...
showers of rain or snow...but amounts look light.
Drier cooler weather returns for the weekend.
dry weather is expected over the next few days...which will allow
rivers and streams to mainly hold steady or slowly fall. Some rain
showers are expected late Friday into Saturday as a frontal
boundary crosses the area...but rainfall amounts look to be light.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on