Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
919 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
a cold frontal boundary will move across the area this
morning...although it will stall just to the south of the region by
late today. A wave of low pressure is then expected to track along
the boundary tonight through Thursday...which will result in a
mainly light snowfall for areas south of Albany. Arctic air will
filter into the region late tonight...and will last through the rest
of the work week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 919 am EST...kenx radar shows precipitation has ended over the
majority of the region. Just a few lingering light rain showers
are occurring over far southern areas of Dutchess/Litchfield
counties. Mesoscale observation are showing temperatures in the middle 30s in that
area...so the threat for freezing rain looks to be done. Any
showers should be moving out shortly...so the majority of the
region will just be seeing cloudy skies for the remainder of the
A slow moving frontal boundary is now located across the far
southern parts of the region. This boundary will slowly drift
south through the day today. Due to flow aloft being nearly
parallel to the surface boundary...the front will stall just south
of the region by late in the day. Additional moisture will start
to spread northeast along the boundary with a weak wave of low
pressure developing along it as well. Will leave mention of chance
probability of precipitation across the southern three counties of Ulster...Dutchess and
Litchfield to account for possible rain/snow developing late in
Temperatures are already in the 30s most locations...and may rise
a few more degrees into the middle to upper 30s for highs today.
However...this relative warmup will be short-lived as cold
advection commencing will result in temperatures slowly falling
during the middle to late afternoon hours...especially for areas
north and west of the Hudson Valley.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
Arctic air will filter into the region tonight...while moisture
along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the middle
Atlantic region moves northeastward into the southern portion of our
forecast area. Thermal profiles from forecast soundings look to be
cold enough for all snow tonight. This system is expected to impact
mainly the southern three counties of Ulster...Dutchess and
Litchfield where likely probability of precipitation are mentioned. The northern edge of
some light snow may scrape northern portions of the middle Hudson
Valley...northeast Catskills...central Taconics and southern
Berkshires as well...but this is less certain. Either way quantitative precipitation forecast looks
to be light as the brunt of moisture and stronger forcing will be
south across the Middle Atlantic States.
Similar weather expected for Thursday...as our entire area will be
firmly entrenched in the Arctic air mass and light snow should
continue across the southern tier counties of Ulster...Dutchess and
Litchfield. Again...this area will be on the northern periphery of
the system and models are in good agreement indicating around 1-3
inches of accumulation in these areas. Any snow slightly farther
north will be generally less than an inch and confined to locations
south of Albany. High temperatures will only reach the teens to lower 20s
across the region with a northwest breeze persisting.
Any lingering snow across southern areas should taper off by
Thursday evening...leaving cold and dry conditions region-wide for
Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will be cresting over the
Ohio Valley...with ridging extending northeastward into our region.
The Arctic air mass will linger through Friday...with temperatures
similar to Thursday and remaining well below normal for early March.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
starting out with another cold air mass impacting the region...however
temperatures are expected to moderate with seasonal readings as we head into
early next week.
A broad longwave trough is expected to remain over the region with short
wave troughs moving through the northern stream over the weekend
into early next week with some rise in heights and the flow
flattening as we head into Tuesday.
The models have timing and amplitude differences with the short
wave troughs that move through...so have favored guidance from the
weather prediction center for forecast consistency. At this time
have chances for showers Saturday night and again on Monday as the
short wave troughs approach. Moisture will be rather limited with
the better chances for showers across the southern
Adirondacks...western Mohawk Valley into the eastern Catskills.
Expecting to start out with lows in the singles digits across the forecast
area Friday night with a rebound into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday
as a broad southwest flow develops ahead of the approaching short
wave trough. These readings are around 5 degrees below normal. Not
as cold for Saturday night generally 10 to 20 degrees with highs Sunday
similar to saturday's. By Tuesday anticipating temperatures into
the lower 40s up the Hudson River valley which would be normal for
this time of year. The last time the high temperature was 40
degrees in Albany was back on January 18th...for Glens Falls
January 5th and Poughkeepsie February 22nd.
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
an occluding low pressure system continues to move across the
local area this morning. The precipitation occurring across the
southern most portion of the forecast area will shift south and
east as the frontal boundary moves through and the winds will
shift to the west. This frontal boundary will stall just south of
the region later today as the flow aloft parallels to the surface
boundary. A weak wave of low pressure will move along the boundary
passing to our south bringing some light snow into the area.
Widespread MVFR conditions will persist with an improvement to VFR expected
by late this morning. Higher levels clouds will move back in across
the area as the lower and middle level clouds break up for a period this
afternoon. Middle and level cloud cover will return as a wave of low pressure
moves along the frontal boundary to our south. The precipitation shield
associated with this low is expected to impact kpou with MVFR-IFR
conditions and kpsf with MVFR with light snow tonight.
Southwesterly will shift to the west with passage of the frontal this
morning. The winds will become gusty into the teens and 20s with
the strongest winds at kalb and kpsf. Winds will decrease and lose
their gusts this evening.
Thu: low operational impact. Slight chance snow.
Thursday night-Sun: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through the next 5 days.
A brief warmup will occur today...but the short timing and magnitude
of the warmth will not be enough to cause any Hydro concerns.
Another Arctic air mass will build in tonight through Friday...with
temperatures falling back well below freezing.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our