Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
416 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
a strong upper level ridge will allow for unseasonably warm
conditions through much of the week. It looks to be rain free most
of the time...although a shower or thunderstorm cannot be totally
ruled out on Thursday...as a cold front approaches the area from
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 415 am EDT...some patchy low clouds continue across portions
of the western Adirondacks...as well as portions of the capital
region...Berkshires and southern greens. These clouds may expand a
bit through sunrise...as they drift slowly southward.
Otherwise...patchy fog is forming where skies have remained
clear...and some could become locally dense by sunrise.
After any low clouds/fog Burns off between 7 and 9 am...expect
mostly sunny skies today...with lighter winds than Monday. Maximum
temperatures should be slightly cooler compared to Monday...with slightly
more shallow mixing depth in place. Still expect widespread middle to
upper 80s in valleys...and lower 80s for most higher terrain.
It will remain a bit humid...with dewpoints mainly in the
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
tonight...generally clear skies and light winds...with patchy fog
possibly forming after midnight. Min temperatures should fall into the
middle 50s to lower 60s...coolest across portions of the southern
Adirondacks/upper Hudson River valley and southern Vermont.
Wednesday...mostly sunny...and a bit hotter than today due to a
slightly greater mixing depth...and even warmer temperatures aloft.
Expect maximum temperatures to reach 85-90 in valleys...and 80-85 across most
higher elevations. Some lower 90s will be possible in portions of
the middle Hudson Valley. These maximum temperatures...combined with dewpoints
in the middle 60s...will produce maximum heat indices of 90-95 in
valleys...and 85-90 across higher elevations.
Wednesday night...a cold front will slowly approach from southern
Canada late at night. Some hi-res mesoscale models suggest some
remnant convection may approach the southern Adirondacks during
the night before weakening. Will keep some slight chance probability of precipitation in this
region in case some showers or thunderstorms can be maintained
before ultimately weakening. It will be warm and humid...with min
temperatures only falling into the middle/upper 60s in valleys...and lower
60s across higher elevations.
On Thursday...a weak frontal system will be settling southward
across the region. Overall moisture will be limited...and dynamics
weak...so only expecting isolated to perhaps scattered
showers/thunderstorms to precede/accompany the boundary as it
settles southward...with the greatest threat for a
shower/thunderstorm across higher elevations east and west of the
Hudson Valley in the afternoon. Winds aloft will be fairly
weak...but instability may be fairly high...so can not completely
rule out a stronger thunderstorm or two with locally gusty winds.
Maximum temperatures should reach 85-90 in valleys and lower to middle 80s
across higher elevations.
Thursday nt...an isolated shower/thunderstorm threat may linger
into the early evening across portions of the middle Hudson Valley
and northwest CT...otherwise fair conditions with slightly cooler/less
humid air advecting southward overnight. Min temperatures by Friday am
should reach the middle 50s to lower 60s...warmest across the middle
Hudson Valley and lower elevations in northwest CT.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
a large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be the
dominant weather feature across our region through the end of the
long term period. Much of the period looks to be very warm to hot
with no precipitation expected. Skies for much of the period will be
mainly clear to at most partly cloudy.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to middle 80s on Friday...mainly in the
80s on Saturday...and in the 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and Monday.
Lows will generally be in the middle 50s to middle 60s...except in the 50s
on Friday night.
Overall temperatures will be much above normal Thursday through
Sunday with precipitation well below normal.
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites through the
end of the taf period ending at 06z Wednesday. The exception will
be some MVFR visibilities and ceilings possible with late night fog at kgfl and
kpsf. Kalb and kpou are expected to remain VFR. Any fog should
lift rather quickly after daybreak allowing for mostly sunny
skies on Tuesday. Few-scattered diurnal cumulus may develop over the high
terrain during the afternoon...otherwise it will remain clear. A light
S-SW wind will develop around 5 kts by late Tuesday morning and
continue through the early evening hours. There may some MVFR fog
again at kgfl and kpsf towards midnight.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
above normal temperatures will continue this week as high
pressure dominates. Dry weather is expected...except for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms on Thursday as a weak cold front
Minimum relative humidity values will be 40-50 percent this
afternoon...and 45-55 percent Wednesday afternoon. Maximum relative humidity values will
recover to 90-100 percent tonight and Tuesday nt.
Widespread dew formation is likely both tonight and Tuesday night.
Light/variable winds will trend into the southwest to west by late
afternoon at less than 8 knots. Winds will become light/variable
tonight...then mainly from the west at 5-10 miles per hour on Wednesday.
no hydrologic problems are expected the next several days.
Expecting dry and unseasonably warm weather as ridging builds in
at the surface and aloft across the region. However there is a
chance for some storms Thursday as a weakening backdoor cold front
moves southward across the region.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
the longest heat wave in Albany has been 10 days long and it
occurred August 27 through September 5 in 1953. The record high
temperatures for August 29, 30 and 31 and September 1, 2 and 3
were all set during this heat and stand today. Daily temperature
records Albany date back to 1874.
Here are some record high temperatures for this week...
albany: 96 degrees 1953
glens falls: 91 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 97 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 101 degrees 1953
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 95 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953
albany: 97 degrees 1929
glens falls: 92 degrees 1973
poughkeepsie: 96 degrees 1973
Records date back to 1949 for Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie...however
note that data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 for