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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1257 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2015

a cold front will continue to push to the south of the region
today...but some light rain or drizzle will linger for much of
today across areas south of Albany. Behind the front...high
pressure and a seasonably cold air mass will move into the region
for the weekend and into early next week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1220 PM...cloudy skies remain across the forecast area early this
afternoon with any lingering precipitation confined to areas south and east
of the greater capital district. Even here probability of precipitation are forecast to
decrease from north to south to dry levels in most areas by late
in the day.

The cold front is now south of the entire forecast area. Temperatures
will be tricky since they have already dropped considerably since
late last night and early this morning. Expect some clearing and
the ending of precipitation to allow for some recovery in temperatures during the
early afternoon...then temperatures will fall again later in the
afternoon. Overall expect highs from this point to range from the
30s to the lower 40s from Interstate 90 and points north...and
40s to lower 50s to the south.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
some lingering showers this evening in the middle Hudson Valley and
mw CT. Clearing will gradually build south. High pressure builds
in from quite a distance from the west...and the core of the
coldest air delayed. There could be some intervals of light north
to northwest winds during the night. So temperatures may not be
able to fall as much as they could tonight. Lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s...lower 20s higher elevations. Much more clearing to
the north compared to the south...but by daybreak Sunday...even
the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT should have a mostly clear sky.

A reinforcing shot of colder air tracks into the region Sunday and
Sunday night with high pressure building south from Canada. The
mean upper trough will likely not be amplified enough to support
the coldest core of air to build into our region...but still some
additional cooling will result in highs Sunday in the middle 40s to
near 50...some upper 30s northern areas.

High pressure centers itself over the region Sunday night into
Monday...with lots of sun and light winds. High pressure begins
to build east and weak warm advection begins late Monday and
increases through Monday night. Highs Monday in the lower to middle
40s...middle to upper 30s northern areas. Just some isolated showers
or snow/sleet in western areas toward daybreak Tuesday morning.
Still no organized lake effect through the period based on
limited duration of favorable winds and instability over and
downstream of the Great Lakes.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the period starts out early Tuesday with high pressure positioned
just off the New England coast and an approaching warm front from
the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic region. The warm front and
associated isentropic lift on the 290k surface will result in
precipitation developing during the day. Timing is the main concern
due to temperature profiles initially looking cold enough for a mix
of snow/sleet early Tuesday morning. GFS has trended slower with
onset and matches fairly closely to latest European model (ecmwf). Will mention
chance probability of precipitation from around the capital district south and west Tuesday
morning...increasing during the afternoon hours. Across the higher
terrain and sheltered valleys...will mention the chance for a brief
mix of snow/sleet before the low levels warm enough for plain rain.
A fairly strong 40-50 knots southerly jet at 850 mb should ensure
enough warming across the entire region by Tuesday afternoon for
liquid precipitation.

Fairly decent isentropic lift expected to persist into Tuesday will mention likely probability of precipitation across the region. Thermal
profiles continue to indicate rain as ptype...although surface temperatures
will be in the 30s across most of the area making for a cold rain.
Despite precipitation occurring much of Tuesday and Tuesday night...the
parent storm will still be positioned well west of the region over
the central Great Lakes by sunrise Wednesday. The upper level low
will then move across the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night...providing additional rain showers...changing to snow showers
over the higher terrain Wednesday night as colder air moves in
aloft. Any accumulations look to be minor.

Timing differences in the models for Thursday...but a north-northwest flow
should at least result in some upslope snow showers mainly over the
higher terrain with breezy and cool conditions elsewhere. High
pressure looks to build in Thursday night into Friday with dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures to close out the work week.


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
the cold front is now south of all the taf sites...but clearing
behind the front will be slow. Light rain showers have already
ended at kalb/kgfl...but will not end at kpsf until around
19z...and around 21z at kpou.

Expect mainly MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities at all the taf sites for
much of the rest of the afternoon...with conditions improving to
VFR ceilings at kgfl by around 20z...and around 21z at kalb. At kpou
the improvement to VFR ceilings will occur around 23z...and sometime
between 28/22z and 29/02z at kpsf. The VFR ceilings of 3500 to 4500
feet will continue into early tonight...with mainly a high cloud
deck later tonight at all the taf sites. After sunrise on Sunday
expect clear to mainly clear skies.

Surface winds into this evening will be northerly at kalb/kpou...
northeast at kgfl and northwest at kpsf. At all the locations the
wind speeds will be under 10 kts. Winds will become light and
variable tonight...then north or northwest at under 10 kts on
Sunday...except northeast or east at kgfl.


Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn...sleet.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
areas of light rain and showers today...then dry weather Sunday.
Relative humidity values this afternoon in the 50-70 percent range. Relative humidity values
Sunday afternoon in the 35 to 50 percent range. Nighttime relative humidity
values between 75-100 percent.

Northwest to northeast winds around 15 miles per hour today...then less than
15 miles per hour tonight and Sunday.

We will end our fire weather weather forecast
(fwf) and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon issuance on
November 30th.


showers will affect our region into this evening...with the
possibility of some snow showers in the southern Adirondacks.
Rainfall amounts with this system will be light...generally less
than a quarter inch. So little or no response is expected on any
stream or rivers within our hydrological service area.

It will turn dry later tonight into early next week.

The next chance of significant precipitation will be Tuesday...
will should be mainly in the form of rain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...gjm/11/NAS
short term...NAS
long term...jpv
fire weather...NAS

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