Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
423 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will move over the region
tonight...allowing for cool temperatures and clear skies. As the
high pressure moves away from the area tomorrow into Friday...a
warming trend will begin...with continued mainly dry conditions. An
increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms will return over the
weekend and into next week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 423 PM EDT...high pressure is situated over Ontario and will
be moving southeast across upstate New York tonight. Strong
subsidence associated with this high will allow for clear skies
and light winds...which will allow for good radiational cooling.
Temperatures will drop off into the 40s for most places...with some middle
to upper 30s across the western Adirondacks. Away from bodies of
water...it/S possible that there may be some isolated patches of
frost in the Adirondacks...although since this will occur in
uninhabited Forest preserve areas of northern Hamilton County...no
frost advisories are necessary.
Some patchy fog may be possible near lakes and rivers and in
typical valley areas late tonight...especially around Glens Falls and in
the Berkshires.
&&
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
on Thursday...500 hpa will continue to dominated by northwest flow
across the northeast. At the surface...high pressure will continue
to slide southeast and away from the area. The high pressure will
continue to allow for mostly to partly clear skies Thursday into
Thursday night. With the high shifting offshore...the low to middle
level flow will switch to S-SW...so temperatures will be a little warmer
on Thursday than recent days and closer to normal...with middle 70s
to near 80...and upper 60s to low 70s for the high terrain. Temperatures
won't be as cool for Thursday night...with upper 40s to upper 50s
across the area.
By Friday...the flow at 500 hpa will be a bit more zonal over the
northern tier of the Continental U.S....although there will be a weak shortwave
passing through the northwest flow across Ontario and Quebec well to
the north of the area. A weak surface front will be dropping south
out of Canada...but will likely get hung up as a stationary boundary
close to the US/Canadian border. As a result...there won't be much
forcing across our area. However...with daytime heating...and
dewpoints starting to rise to the upper 50s to near 60...there may
be an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. The models
seem to show the capital region/southern Vermont might be the area where
this would occur...so have gone with slight chance probability of precipitation for these
areas...and kept probability of precipitation low elsewhere.
It should be dry Friday night with broad west-SW flow over the area
and partly cloudy skies. Min temperatures on Friday night will range
from the middle 50s to low 60s...with the warmest temperatures around the
capital region.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
coming soon.
&&
Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with high pressure
building into the region. Some radiation fog will be possible
tonight at kgfl/kpsf once decoupling occurs. Will mention MVFR visibilities
for now...but there is the possibility of IFR. After 13z...any fog
should be gone and all sites should have few clouds and variable
winds of 6 knots or less.
Outlook...
Thu-Fri...mainly VFR. No sig weather. Possible late night fog at
kgfl/kpsf.
Sat...mainly VFR. Slight chance -tsra/-shra.
Sun-Mon...mainly VFR. Chance thunderstorms and rain.
&&
Fire weather...
no fire weather concerns at this time due to the recent wet
weather.
High pressure will settle into the region tonight and bring dry and
normal to below normal temperatures through Thursday night. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible Friday and Saturday...along
with a gradual warming trend. Dew formation should occur each
night.
&&
Hydrology...
flows remain above normal for middle June across the Hydro service
area.
Dry weather is expected tonight through tomorrow night...allowing
rivers to continue to gradually lower from the very wet conditions
of the past few weeks. For Friday and into the weekend...there may
isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms...but widespread
rainfall is not anticipated at this time...and not all locations
will see rainfall.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.
&&
Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...frugis
near term...frugis
short term...frugis
long term...iaa
aviation...NAS
fire weather...frugis
hydrology...frugis
