Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
449 am EDT Wednesday may 6 2015
a disturbance moving along a stalled frontal boundary
over the Middle Atlantic States may bring some light rain showers to
southern areas this morning...otherwise clouds will break for
sunshine with another warm afternoon expected today. Dry conditions
with warm temperatures look to continue Thursday into Friday...with
the chance for rain showers increasing over the weekend and into
early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 449 am EST...latest surface analysis shows a weak nearly
stationary boundary situated just south of the region over PA and
New Jersey. A disturbance in the middle levels moving along this surface boundary
is producing some light rain showers across southern parts of
upstate New York...as seen in the latest kenx radar imagery. These
showers are moving eastward...and are moving into the southern
Catskills...middle Hudson Valley...and into northwest CT. Infrared satellite
imagery shows plenty of cloud cover from the capital region and
Mohawk Valley on southward...thanks to the proximity of this
boundary and shower activity. Showers are generally light...and
producing only a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall at most.
The latest 3km hrrr shows the showers to continue to move
eastward. Any showers should end by about middle morning or so...as
the weak disturbance starts to shift away from the area. With high
pressure building in from southern Canada...skies will clear out
from north to south during the day today. Most areas look to be
partly to mostly sunny by this afternoon.
With the high building into the area...inversion heights will be
lower...so mixing won't be quite as deep as recent days.
Still...temperatures aloft are fairly warm...so another above normal day
can be expected...with highs mainly in the 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
the entire short term period will be dominated by dry and warm
weather...as upper level heights continue to rise...as ridging
establishes itself along the eastern Seaboard.
Clear skies/light winds will allow temperatures to fall off for
tonight...with lows ranging from the upper 30s in high terrain
areas to the upper 40s/low 50s in valley areas. However...with
lots of sun expected on Thursday...temperatures will quickly warm through
the morning...and look to reach around 80 for highs on Thursday
afternoon /some upper 60s to middle 70s for the hills and mountains/.
Another cool night can be expected for Thursday night with the
clear skies/light winds continuing and good radiational cooling
occurring...with upper 30s to low 50s once again.
850 hpa temperatures will rise to 12-14 degrees c for Friday. With lots
of sun continued to occur and rising heights...maximum temperatures will be
even warmer. Highs look to reach low to middle 80s for valley areas
with increasing amounts of humidity as well. There may be a more
clouds by Friday afternoon with some diurnal cumulus developing...but it
will remain dry. Temperatures on Friday night will only fall to the middle
50s to low 60s thanks to the increasing amounts of humidity and the
more clouds around.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
above normal temperatures should persist into Monday with increasing
chances for convection as we head through the weekend into early next
week. An approaching low pressure system may bring the region its first
widespread rainfall since the about April 21st.
Guidance indicates ridging should persist over our region over the weekend
with a weak low meandering around along the southeast coast as an upper
level low moves from The Four Corners region into the Central Plains.
As we head into early next week...the upper ridge should flatten while
the low along the southeast coast weakens and drifts northward. The
upper level low over the plains is expected to weaken and possibly opens
as it heads into the Great Lakes region.
A weak surface frontal boundary will approach from the northwest over the
weekend...however the flow aloft will parallel the boundary causing its to
stall in the vicinity of the Saint Lawrence River valley. The local area will
remain in a mild southwesterly flow which will become increasingly moist.
Expecting some isolated to scattered convection mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours with the better chances expected Sunday as the boundary
As we head into early next week...a low pressure system approaches Monday
and should move into the region Tuesday resulting in increasing chances
for showers. Temperatures Tuesday are anticipated to be closer to seasonable
levels due to cloud cover and the greater chances for showers.
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period ending 06z/Thursday.
A cold front has become stalled just to the south of the area across
Pennsylvania and the New York metropolitan area. A weak disturbance
moving along the boundary is resulting in some light rain showers
in the vicinity of the boundary. However the likelihood any showers
will impact kpou is too low to include in the taf. Otherwise middle/high
level clouds will continue to stream across the region decreasing
after sunrise. A few cumulus clouds should develop with the heating
of the day. With the loss of heating any cumulus clouds will dissipate
and clear skies are expected for the night.
Light and variable to calm winds area expected.
Thursday-Fri-night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sat: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sat night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sun: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sun night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Mon: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
..low relative humidity values each afternoon for the next few days...
Although most of the region is dry...there are a few rain showers
early this morning across far southern areas...including the area
near the roosa gap fire in extreme southwestern Ulster County. Any
precipitation looks fairly light. The threat for rain showers will end
by later this morning...with clouds breaking for sunshine over
the entire region. Relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 30 percent this
afternoon along with S-SW winds at 5 miles per hour or less.
Relative humidity values should recover near 100 percent tonight with some dew
formation. During the day on Thursday...relative humidity values will once again
drop to 20 to 30 percent in the afternoon with lots of sunshine.
However...winds will continue to be light...generally S to SW at 5
to 10 miles per hour.
With increasing amounts of moisture...relative humidity values look to only drop
to 35 to 45 percent on Friday with south winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour.
aside from a few light rain showers over southern areas early this
morning...dry weather will continue through Friday. Total quantitative precipitation forecast over
southern areas this morning will be less than a tenth of an inch.
There will be a slight to low chance of a rain shower or
thunderstorm this weekend. Any precipitation will be scattered in
nature...and some areas may not see any precipitation at all.
As a result...rivers and streams will either hold steady or slowly
recede through the week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our