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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
744 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

a cold front will gradually approach the region tonight into
Friday as areas of low pressure move along the boundary. The
front will move across the local area Friday night accompanied by
some showers. Ahead of the boundary it will be a warm day Friday
with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. However with the passage of
the boundary...a much more seasonable air mass will be ushered in
for the weekend.


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
the region is between a cold front gradually approaching from the
west and ridging along the East Coast. High level clouds will
continue to stream over the region while some stratus creep in
from the southeast. Overall...partly to mostly cloudy skies. Will
be a mild night as have broad southwest flow across region.
Overnight lows will be around The Levels that are normal highs are
for this time of the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Today's highs were: (normal/records for Nov 26th)...
Albany ny: 53 degrees (44 degrees / 67 degrees set in 1979)
Glens Falls ny: 51 degrees (42 degrees / 64 degrees set in 1979)
Poughkeepsie ny: 57 degrees (48 degrees / 66 degrees set in 1979)
Bennington vt: 53 degrees (43 degrees)
Pittsfield ma: 51 degrees (42 degrees)


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
the aforementioned cold front will still be to the north of our
forecast area (fca)...slowly working into our northern areas by
very late in the day.

Out ahead of the front...the mean flow will veer from a south
to southeast flow to more of a southwesterly flow. This should
allow for any stratus to dissipate...bringing at least
partial sunshine to most areas.

H850 temperatures look to peak around +8c...before cooling
a little late in the day from northwest to southeast.

With better potential least some sunshine...
and a south to southwest breeze...temperatures will become
quite mild across our region. We are forecasting
high temperatures 60-65 in the valleys...middle or upper
50s across most of the higher terrain. Across the Adirondacks
the highs might be more in the lower 50s due to more clouds
and front getting into the region before the end of the day.

Record highs for November 27th are:
Albany ny: 66 degrees set in 1896
(daily records date back to 1874)

Glens Falls ny: 61 degrees set in 1976
(records date back to 1949)

Poughkeepsie ny: 63 degrees set in 2006
(records date back to 1949...however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000)

The south to southwest wind will be 10-15 miles per hour...with a few
higher afternoon gusts to 20-25 miles per hour.

Friday night...the cold front will cross our region...clearing
our southern zones just before daybreak. Scattered showers with this
front still look to bring light amounts. It will be marginally
cold enough for the showers to turn to snow showers north
and west of Albany with little or no accumulation expected.

Overnight lows will dip back down to near freezing across
the Adirondacks...35-50 most other areas north of the
capital region (upper Hudson Valley/Mohawk Valley/southern

The remainder regions will have lows in the middle or even upper
40s as the cool air will likely filter in until Saturday.

Saturday will be a noticeably cooler day. There is some concern
a weak wave might form along the front...slowing any clearing
south of I-90. We will keep small chances of rain showers
continuing throughout the day...mainly south of I-90.

If a wave does indeed form on the front...the precipitation
could even end as a few snow flakes in our southern
zones Saturday evening.

Otherwise there will slow clearing and cooler. The flow will be
too anticyclonic for any real lake response off Ontario.

Highs Saturday will only a couple to several degrees higher than
Friday night lows...generally in the 40s to around 50.

Saturday night...with additional clearing it will turn
seasonably cold with lows in the 20s...with some upper
teens across the Adirondacks.

Dry weather Sunday making once again for optimal travel conditions.
It looks partly to mostly Sunday with highs from the upper 40s
south of Albany...middle 40s locally in the capital region...
35-40 further north and west.


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
dry weather is expected early next week with unsettled weather
expected during the middle of next week.

The week starts off with a large ridge of high pressure across
eastern Canada and the northeast US Sunday night and Monday with the
ridge of high pressure moving off the eastern Seaboard by Tuesday
morning. Expect lows Sunday night to be in the upper teens to lower
30s with highs on Monday in the middle 30s to lower 40s and lows in the
20s to around 30 Monday night.

A strong upper system approaches on Tuesday with increasing warm
advection...low level frontogenesis and low level jet...and moisture
advection. Clouds should increase Monday night with some isolated
snow shower activity early Tuesday morning in the eastern
Catskills...Schoharie valley...western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks spreading east across the region during the day.

Temperatures will warm through the day Tuesday...even with the cloud
cover and increasing coverage of showers...due to the increasing
warm advection. Highs Tuesday in the middle to upper 40s...around 40 in
higher elevations. A strong cold front is expected to track through
late Wednesday with continued scattered showers Tuesday night and
Wednesday...some snow showers in the southern Adirondacks...southern
Green Mountains...eastern Catskills and Lake George area Tuesday
night. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s to around 40
with highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to around 50...but around
40 to lower 40s higher elevations. The front looks to be timed for
late Wednesday but the timing will likely be adjusted as we get
closer to next week and the evolution gets clearer.


Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
the region is between a cold front gradually approaching from the
west and ridging along the East Coast. High level clouds will
continue to stream over the region while some stratus creeps in
from the southeast. Kpou is at risk of a MVFR ceilings and fog
overnight...otherwise expecting VFR conditions with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. The cold front should just be moving into thenorthwest
portion of the local area at the end of the taf
period...00z/Saturday. Chances for showers are expected to hold
off until 00z. Clouds will be on the increase thickening and
lowering during the day Friday.

Have low level wind shear in the kgfl and kpsf tafs where the
surface winds will be light and the south-southwest flow around 2000 feet
expected to 35 to 40 knots for the overnight into Friday morning.
Due to stronger southerly surface flow at kalb along with some
gusts do not have low level wind shear in that taf.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sat: low operational impact. Slight chance of shr.
Sat night-Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tue: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra/shsn.


Fire weather...
no precipitation will occur through tomorrow afternoon.

Look for a nearly full recovery tonight...with relative humidity values
dropping to the 50s Friday afternoon...back up to near
100 percent Friday night...down to the 30s northwest on
Saturday afternoon....40s to around 50 percent most other

For both today and tomorrow...relative humidity values will only fall
around 45 to 65 percent each afternoon...and recover to 90-100
percent each night with dew and or frost formation.
The wind will variable to south 5-10 miles per hour tonight...
south to southwest 10-15 miles per hour...veering to the
northwest at similar speeds late Friday night into Saturday.

Some light rain showers are expected with a frontal
boundary for Friday night in Saturday...but rainfall amounts
will generally be less than a quarter on an inch.
Dry weather and cooler will return for the weekend.

We will end our fire weather weather forecast (fwf)
and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon
issuance on November 30th.


the next chance of showers will be late Friday into Saturday.
Rainfall amounts with this system still look light...a quarter inch
or little or no response is expected on any water shed
within our hydrological service area.

It will turn dry later Saturday into early next week.

The next chance of significant precipitation will be Tuesday...
looking mostly to come in the form of rain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...iaa/hwjiv
short term...hwjiv
long term...11/NAS
fire weather...hwjiv

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