Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1024 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015
the upper level storm in the Gulf of Maine will wobble back into
Maine on Sunday...which will bring more clouds and the chance for
showers late Sunday into Monday.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
as of 1024 PM EDT...patchy clouds remain late this evening from
around I-90 northward with some breaks...while there are mainly
clear skies to the south. Clouds will slowly start to increase
again late tonight into early Saturday morning...as the upper low
over the Gulf of Maine begins to wobble westward and brings an
increase in moisture. It will be a chilly night again with lows 25
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/...
as the upper level trough continues to shift slowly westward on
Sunday...clouds will continue to increase and there will be a
slight to low chance of showers in most areas during the
afternoon. The slight to low chance of showers will continue into
Sunday night...then a much better chance for showers on Monday as
the upper low gets relatively close to the region. Have forecast
35 to 50 percent probability of precipitation on Monday for most of the Hudson
Valley...eastward to the Berkshires and northwest CT. Likely probability of precipitation are
forecast from the southern Green Mountains to the Lake George
area...the Adirondacks...Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. The
low will begin to slowly move away from the region Monday night
and have forecast probability of precipitation to lower to slight chance in all areas by
late at night.
Once clouds increase to mostly cloudy on Sunday...expect sky cover
to remain cloudy to mostly cloudy through Monday...then start to
slowly decrease Monday night.
Temperatures will remain cool during the period...and will be cold
enough during the late night and early morning hours for the
showers to fall as a mix of rain and snow or just snow in higher
terrain areas. Little or no accumulation is expected. Highs Sunday
will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to
around 40. Highs Monday in the upper 40s and 50s once again. Lows
Monday night in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
the long term begins with the cut-off low still potentially
impacting our region. However...it now looks as if southern stream
energy will not phase with this feature. All of the long range
forecast models indicated the northern stream cutoff low will begin
to slowly exit on Tuesday...but there still could be some upslope
showers to the east of the Hudson Valley so continued the idea of
probability of precipitation in that area on Tuesday. There might also be a few light rain
or snow showers across the Adirondacks with a little moisture off
Then...the middle and upper level flow looks to become weakly
anticyclonic by Wednesday. The 12z GFS had a weak cold front
working across the region late Wednesday...but Canadian and
European models did not have this feature arriving until early
We will keep Wednesday and Wednesday dry with the chance for mainly
mountain showers Thursday into Friday. By Saturday...there are
indications that a ridge could start building into our region from
the Ohio Valley which would bring warmer temperatures.
Until that time...temperatures will generally average close to
normal with highs ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
higher terrain....lower 60s to upper 60s valley locations. Overnight
lows will generally be in the middle to upper 30s mountains and coldest
sheltered valleys...lower to middle 40s most other places. By next
Saturday...we go with highs around 70 in the valleys...60s higher
Precipitation looks to be below normal during the extended period as
any widely scattered showers that take place look light.
Aviation /03z Sunday through Thursday/...
an upper level trough over southern Quebec and northern New
England will gradually build southward into our region through
Sunday. Initially there will not be much moisture associated with
this system...so just increasing middle level clouds in VFR range
are expected through 00z Monday. Tonight it appears the cloud
line will be from around kalb/kpsf northward to kgfl...while kpou
remains mostly clear.
Winds will become northwest less than 5 kts tonight...increasing
to around 6-8 kts Sunday morning.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
under partly cloudy skies tonight...relative humidity values will recover to between
70 and 90 percent.
There will be a further increase in cloud coverage on
Sunday...along with chance for showers from late Sunday through
Monday. This will keep relative humidities elevated with minimum
values on Sunday ranging from 35 to 45 percent...then 40 to 60
percent on Monday.
the forecast will be dominated by a persistent upper level low
which will result in cool temperatures...breezy conditions and
chances for mainly light precipitation. Any of this precipitation
will have little if any impact on our rivers and streams in our
hydrological service area /hsa/.
Rivers and streams will continue to slowly recede with the cooler
temperatures and light scattered precipitation forecasted.
For details on specific area river and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our web-