Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
733 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

an upper level disturbance will continue to move east out of the
region with clearing and blustery conditions. Tonight...a breeze
will continue as it clears and turns cold. Sunshine will moderate
temperatures on Thursday but the breeze will continue.


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
still some isolated showers and sprinkles around...but they are
drying up. There should be a gradual clearing trend through the
night. Just some minor changes to the forecast through tonight.

Previous disc. Below...

A ridge of high pressure will begin to move east over Lake Huron and
Lake Erie as we go into tonight with an established north-westerly
flow out ahead of the upper level ridge axis. This will establish a
northwesterly wind flow between 10 to 15 miles per hour as we go into early
Thursday morning. This flow will usher in very chilly overnight
temperatures that are well below normal with fair weather
conditions. Low temperatures will range from the upper teens to
near 20 in the Adirondacks to middle and upper 20s for the rest of
the region with temperatures near 30 in the immediate capital


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
as we go into the day on Thursday...the entire region will be under
the influence of a large upper level trough upstream over the Great
Lakes which will result in a large scale surface divergence giving
fair weather conditions to the region. As a deepening low moves
off the coast into the Canadian Maritimes and with a surface high
pressure system moving east across the Great
established pressure gradient with a northwesterly wind flow will
develop in the daylight hours with winds sustained between 15 to
25 miles per hour with gusts up to 35 miles per hour possible especially in the early
afternoon. The weather parameters also set up for possible fire
weather issues. Please see our fire weather section of the afd for
further details and for the latest updates. Skies will become
partly to mostly clear as we go into the day on Thursday with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s in the highest terrain to
middle and upper 50s for the rest of the region with a few lower 60s.
As we go into Thursday night...winds will subside to around 5 miles per hour
out of the northwest. Along with clearing skies and tranquil
weather conditions...temperatures will drop to below normal
values. Low temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 20s
in the Adirondacks to near 30 in the immediate capital region.

As we go into Friday morning...winds will shift from northwest to
southeast as an approaching warm front makes its way into the region
associated with a weak surface low and an upper level wave moving
east across western New York and Pennsylvania. With t850 between
4c and 6c and t925 between 8c and 10c...warm air advection into
the region will allow high temperatures on Friday to range from
the middle 50s in the Adirondacks to lower and middle 60s in valley
locations. As we go into Friday afternoon and Friday cover will be on the increase as a surface cold
front will be moving east across western and central New York.
Latest 12z models and numerical probabilistic guidance is not in
total agreement with quantitative precipitation forecast amounts and timing...however the cold front
should make it through our region during the overnight hours on
Friday. Low temperatures on Friday will range from middle 30s to
lower 40s.


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
period begins with showers ahead of a cold front that may mix with
or change to snow before tapering off Saturday night. This system
moves out quickly...and is followed by a slowing pattern...with high
pressure from James Bay to the Carolinas digging across our area
beginning with the new week. This ridge will be slow to depart.

Meanwhile...low pressure organizing over the Colorado rockies on
Sunday will head east to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. This low will
slow significantly on its journey...making little further progress
on Wednesday. However...moisture will spill out ahead of it...
increasing clouds and probability of precipitation through Wednesday. With the stubborn
ridge down across Maine on Wednesday...the onset of any significant
precipitation with this system may actually hold off until mid-week.

High temperatures Saturday will range from the lower 50s to middle
60s. These highs will be about 5 to 7 degrees lower for Sunday.
Temperatures then moderate slightly each day ... highs by
Wednesday from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Lows Saturday night will
range from around 30 degrees in the around 40
degrees down the Hudson Valley. Lows will be a couple of degrees or
so cooler Sunday night...with moderation thereafter. By Tuesday
night...lows will range from the lower 30s in the
as high as 45 degrees down the Hudson Valley.


Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
other than a few lingering showers around kpsf...and ceilings at
kpsf gradually rising back to VFR...conditions through 00z Friday
should be mainly VFR at all the sites.

Northwest winds at all the taf sites will remain steady between 5
knots and 15 knots..with some intermittent gusts possible at kalb tonight.
The winds will increase again on Thursday to 14 to 20 kts with
gusts of 25 to 30 kts.


Thursday night: low operational impact.Breezy no sig weather.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Scattered rain showers.
Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
Fire Weather Watch is in effect from noon to 6 PM tomorrow for
western New England and east central New York excluding the southern
Adirondack region...and the western Mohawk Valley...

An established northwesterly wind will be over the we go
into the overnight hours with winds sustained between 10 to 15 miles per hour
with gusts up to 20 miles per hour possible.

Going into Thursday...northwesterly wind will be on the increase
between 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts up to 35 miles per hour are possible. Relative
humidity values will drop to as low as 15 to 25 percent as we go
into the afternoon hours. With the timing of these weather elements
and the antecedent conditions of short term precipitation climatology
in the region /less than a quarter inch of rain in 5 days/...a Fire
Weather Watch headline has been issued for all of western New
England and certain areas of eastern New York. This does not
include the Adirondacks region and the western Mohawk Valley...where
fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

The fire weather threat will diminish as we go into the evening
hours on Thursday as winds will subside and relative humidity values will increase
to above 30 percent.

Conditions will continued to be monitored and any adjustments to
specific headlines will be coordinated with the appropriate officials
and updated accordingly.

The next chance of rain showers looks to be late Friday or Friday


no significant Hydro problems are anticipated during the next five

A ridge of high pressure will be working into the region as we go
into Thursday with tranquil weather conditions and no rainfall
expected through Friday night. The next chance of rain will be
moving into the region during the first half of the weekend along an
upper level disturbance.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for ctz001-013.
New York...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for nyz039>041-043-
Massachusetts...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for maz001-025.
Vermont...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for vtz013>015.


near term...lfm/NAS
short term...lfm
long term...elh
fire weather...lfm/wasula