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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1050 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

a large area of high pressure will build into the region from
the west. This high will dominate our weather through the week
with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. After a cool start
Tuesday morning...temperatures will warm close to normal levels
with readings expected to be above normal by the end of the week.


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
overall the forecast is on track...mainly only minor adjustments

The upper level trough continues to lift northeastward away from
the region with high pressure building into from the west.
Westerly flow is rather light across most of the area however
continues to be gusty across the Berkshires. Winds will weaken
here overnight. Cloud cover will continue to gradually decrease.

Low temperatures are expected to bottom out in middle 30s to lower
40s. Have patchy frost mentioned for areas where lows will get
into the middle 30s and the growing season is still ongoing.

The growing season ended Friday morning September 19th across
northern Herkimer...Hamilton and northern Warren counties.


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
dry and quiet weather is expected through the entire short term
period. Surface high pressure will slide from the Midwest tomorrow towards
the northeast on Wednesday...and off the New England coast for
Thursday. In addition to the dry weather...skies will be mostly
clear...along with light winds.

With upper level ridging and heights building across the
area...temperatures will gradually be warmer each Day. Valley maximum temperatures
will be in the upper 60s tomorrow...near 70 on Wednesday...and low
70s for Thursday. High terrain areas will see highs in the 60s
through the week. Good radiational cooling can be expected each
night as cool overnight temperatures are forecasted as
well...with upper 30s to middle 40s for both Tuesday/Wednesday nights.


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
extended period of dry weather with above normal temperatures as
ridging at the surface and aloft dominate our weather. At this
time...high temperatures over the weekend of around 80 degrees are
expected across the middle Hudson Valley up into the capital


Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period...00z/Wednesday.
The upper level trough will lift northeastward away from the
region tonight...and high pressure will build into the area from
the west.

The pressure gradient is relaxing and winds are diminishing with
the loss of daytime mixing and increasing subsidence. Westerly
winds of 10 knots or less are expected Tuesday. The exception will
be at kgfl where the flow will be southerly due to local effects.

The stratocu clouds over the mainly over high terrain will gradually
diminish with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight.
Few to scattered cumulus clouds are expected for Tuesday.

Wednesday-Sat: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
dry weather is expected over the next several days.

Relative humidity values will return to near 100 percent tonight with some
fog/dew/frost formation possible. Although winds are gusty this
evening...they will diminish to calm or light and variable
conditions for the overnight hours.

Relative humidity values will drop to 40 to 70 percent tomorrow afternoon with
west winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour. The lowest relative humidity values will be in the middle
Hudson Valley and northwest CT. Relative humidity values will again return to near 100
percent tomorrow night with dew and fog formation and calm winds.


high pressure will dominate through the weather through the
remainder of the week. As a precipitation is expected
through at least Friday. Rivers and streams...many of which have
been running on the low side...will continue to remain steady
through the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...iaa/frugis
short term...frugis
long term...iaa
fire weather...frugis

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