Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1045 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Synopsis...
our region will be situated between high pressure to our west and
deepening low pressure to the east in the Gulf of Maine today. This
high pressure will weaken as it moves over the region tonight. It
will be a brisk day but with lots of sunshine. The wind will
diminish tonight leaving US with a cold night for late April. Friday
looks mainly dry with milder temperatures. The next chance of rain
arrives Friday night.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1045 am EDT...mainly clear skies will continue through the
day...as high pressure slowly builds eastward from the Great
Lakes. It will be windy though due to a strong pressure gradient
between a slowly departing low pressure east of the Gulf of
Maine...and the high over the western Great Lakes.

Sunshine will attempt to heat up the surface today. With still
plenty of cold air aloft...this heating will produce excellent
mixing with the colder air aloft...producing pretty impressive
midday and afternoon wind gusts. The northwest wind will increase
to 15 to 25 miles per hour...but will gust over 35 miles per hour everywhere...perhaps
up to 45 miles per hour across the highest terrain/35-40 miles per hour across the
Mohawk Valley and greater capital district.

The combination of these gusty winds...very low afternoon relative humidity values
and the lack of a good wetting rain in days...has prompted fire
weather concerns throughout our forecast area. For more on
these...please refer to the fire weather forecast discussion found
later in the afd.

High temperatures will top between 55 to 60 in the valleys...upper
40s to middle 50s higher terrain.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
tonight...the pressure gradient will quickly relax as low pressure
finally moves further east and high pressure weakens a little as it
crest over the region. The net result will be a rapid diminishing of
the wind this evening. The sky will start out clear...with some high
clouds increasing toward daybreak. This will offer better
radiational cooling conditions despite some warm advection aloft.
Temperatures tonight will dip to around 30 from the capital district
southward...low to middle 20s across the outlying areas.

Friday will feature a much more tranquil day. Although clouds will
slowly increases...it now appears from the 00z model guidance
collection that any rain from the next disturbance...should stay
mainly west of our region throughout the day. A few showers might
sneak into areas west of the Hudson Valley late in the day. The
combination of some sunshine...a breeze turning southerly and
picking up to around 10 miles per hour during the afternoon...good mixing and
warm advection...will give temperatures a bump upward. Look for
highs in the lower to middle 60s across most areas...closer to 60 even
across the Adirondacks.

Friday night...the aforementioned disturbance...an occluded front
from the Ohio Valley...will move into our region and bring showers.
All models suggest the old primary low that will ride by to our
north will weaken while a secondary low develops to our southeast.
This secondary low might actually bring a period of steady rain
overnight into early Saturday but this scenario is not etched in
stone yet. For now we will have likely showers in the grids Friday
night.

It might just cold enough across the Adirondacks for the rain to mix
with or maybe even change to wet snow overnight. However...any
accumulations from this Vantage Point looks light to none.

The secondary low will pull away on Saturday. A dry slot should
bring a temporary reprieve to shower activity...mainly from Albany
southward. However...the upper level portion of the storm will work
across the region from Albany north by late in the day. We will
carry the highest chances for additional showers in our northern
while only slight chances from Albany southward. In fact...our
southern areas might see some breaks of sunshine.

The air aloft will be cooling slightly on Saturday...but with good
mixing valley areas from Albany southward should see high
temperatures again around 60 or a little better...50s further north
with some upper 40s across the Adirondacks.

A few lingering showers of rain or even snow will be possible across
mainly the Adirondacks Saturday night while most everyone else will
have nothing than a brief shower or sprinkle. It looks to turn
chilly once more Saturday night with a brisk northwest flow tumbling
temperatures into the 30s...except middle to upper 20s Adirondacks
where once again a few spots could pick up a dusting of
snow.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
we begin the long term sandwiched between the upper low over the
North Atlantic and deepening low over the Central Plains. The net
result is a ridge of high pressure that is forecast per the 00z
global models to remain in place most of Sunday into Monday. We
will hold onto some chance probability of precipitation north of Albany early on Sunday as
cyclonic flow and moisture lingers. Even with partial
sunshine...h850 temperatures are prognosticated to be around or below 0z which
will result in below normal temperatures at the surface.

The precipitation chances will increase markedly Tuesday into Wednesday as
the aforementioned upper low over the Central Plains deepens further
and Gulf of Mexico moisture transport increases along the eastern
Seaboard. It appears we will be looking for a rather wet period of
weather into the middle week period. While the thermal column does
moderate...with the considerable cloud cover and increase chances
for rainfall...we will keep temperatures mainly below normal for
daytime highs and near normal for the overnight lows.

&&

Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/...
clear skies across the region this morning...however...canopy of
higher and middle level clouds were quickly approaching from the Great
Lakes region. Either way...VFR conditions will prevail.

Northwest winds at all the taf sites will increase quickly this
morning to 14 to 20 kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts common. Those
winds will subside shortly after sunset.

Outlook...

Friday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers.
Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday to Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.

&&

Fire weather...
red flag warning now in effect from noon to 600 PM across
southern Vermont...the Berkshires and northwest Connecticut. In
eastern New York state...the red flag warning includes all but the
Adirondacks. We did add southern Herkimer County into warning.

West to northwest wind will gusts anywhere from 30-45 miles per hour this
afternoon...in conjunction with relative humidity values dropping to between 15-25
percent. Also the computed Haines index is expected to be 5-6 in
most areas...which is high and can help support fire growth.

Per earlier coordination with our liaison state contact
points...most of our area will be under the potential for critical
fire weather behavior today. The Adirondacks were left out since
projected high temperatures there today will generally around 50 or
a little less. Also...there was a little more rainfall recently as
well as some lingering effects of melting snow. For this area...we
will issue a Special Weather Statement.

The wind will diminish quickly this evening any the threat of any
critical fire weather issues.

The fire weather threat will diminish as we go into the evening
hours as winds will subside and relative humidity values will increase to above 30
percent.

Friday...will feature more clouds than today although it will
actually be milder. Relative humidity values look to dip to or a little below 30
percent once more during the afternoon. However...a south to
southeast wind will be lighter than today...generally averaging
around 10 miles per hour...with a few gusts closer to 20 possible. No fire
weather actions are expected at this time for Friday.

The next chance of rain looks to be Friday night into early
Saturday. It is about a 50/50 chance that any one area will reach a
quarter inch or more.

&&

Hydrology...
no significant Hydro problems are anticipated during the next five
days.

Dry weather is expected through much of Friday.

The next chance of rain happens Friday night into early Saturday. At
this point we are projecting most rainfall amounts generally around
a quarter inch or less. This rainfall amount should have little or
no effect on rivers and streams.

Dry weather is expected much of the weekend into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ctz001-013.
New York...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for nyz038>041-
043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
Massachusetts...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for maz001-025.
Vermont...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for vtz013>015.

&&

$$
Synopsis...hwjiv/jpv
near term...hwjiv/jpv
short term...hwjiv
long term...bgm
aviation...bgm
fire weather...hwjiv
hydrology...hwjiv/lfm