Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
616 am EST Sat Jan 31 2015
a bitterly cold Arctic air mass will build into the region with
strong gusty winds which will produce dangerously cold wind chills
today. High pressure will be briefly in control of our weather to
start the weekend...then a clipper low Saturday night into Sunday
will bring scattered snow showers north and west of the capital
district. Another round of snow is expected Sunday night through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
..a wind chill warning is in effect until 11 am this morning for
northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties of the southern
..a Wind Chill Advisory is up for the rest of the forecast area
excluding portions of the southern Adirondacks until 11 am
As of 6 am EST temperatures across the region ranged from 10 to 15
below zero across the northwest portion of the forecast area to around 10 degrees
above zero over the southeast portion of the forecast area. For today...dangerous
wind chill values will continue for most of the morning...and the
headlines run to 11 am. A ridge of high pressure will nose into
our region from the Tennessee Valley by this afternoon. Mostly
sunny to sunny skies and very cold conditions will occur during
the day. Maximum temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Overall...downright frigid conditions with highs zero to 10 above
over the southern dacks...southern greens...and parts of the Berkshires.
Teens will be common over the rest of the forecast area. The winds
should slacken late in the day.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
a Winter Storm Watch is in effect from late Sunday evening
through Monday for much of eastern New York and western New
England excluding the southern Adirondacks...
For tonight...a fast moving moisture starved clipper type system
is expected to race from the upper Great Lakes across northern New
York overnight. This system will bring a chance of snow showers to
the northwestern third of the forecast area with little if any snow elsewhere.
It will continue to be very cold with lows ranging from 5 below
zero northwest to the 10 above zero southeast.
On Sunday high pressure will stretch across southern Canada and in
the wake of the clipper type system we are expecting a dry day.
Although clouds will be increasing ahead of our next system so
skies will be mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be higher than
Saturday...but still well below normal with readings from the
lower teens northwest to upper 20s southeast.
On Sunday night we are expecting snow to overspread much of the forecast area
from southwest to northeast during the late evening hours and a
Winter Storm Watch has been posted for much of the forecast area excluding
the southern Adirondacks. We will be dealing with a progressive
type system as the upper trough axis remains neutral positively
tilted until the system is well off the coast. The surface low is
expected to track from the Ohio Valley late Sunday across the
middle Atlantic region Sunday night and pass southeast of Long
Island on Monday. This system will produce good overrunning as
there is plenty of isentropic lift and decent frontogenesis at 700 mb
between 12z and 18z on Monday. In the watch area 7 inches or more of
snow is possible...however as with so many storms this winter
there will be a sharp cutoff on the northern edge...thus the
reason that the southern Adirondacks were left out of the watch at
this time. Lows Sunday night are expected to range from 10 to 15
below zero northwest to the middle teens southeast. Highs on Monday
will range from the single digits northwest to around 20 southeast.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
well below normal temperatures will continue through the long
Monday night-Tuesday...in the wake of Monday/S storm system...the
combination of potentially deep fresh snow cover...decreasing
wind...and clearing skies should allow temperatures to plummet later at
night well below zero in most areas...with many min temperatures possibly
dipping into the -10 to -20 f range by daybreak Tuesday for areas
north of Interstate 90. Winds should become light at that time...so
wind chill values should be close to actual air temperatures. After the
brutally cold start...expect mostly sunny skies with occasional high
clouds passing through. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday should eventually reach the
Lower/Middle teens in valleys and single digits for higher elevations.
Tuesday nt-Thu...a clipper system is expected to pass across the Great
Lakes and into the Saint Lawrence valley during this period. Some
warm advection snow showers will be possible late Tuesday nt into early
Wednesday...especially across northwest areas. Then...another Arctic front associated
with this system is expected to traverse the region late Wednesday or
early Thursday...preceded and accompanied by snow showers...with the best
chance for some minor accums across the southern Adirondacks and
southern Vermont. Snow showers should decrease in areal coverage by late
Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal...but will moderate a bit in the
southwest flow ahead of the incoming frontal boundary...with Wednesday maximum
temperatures possibly reaching around or just over 30 in valleys...with
mainly middle/upper 20s for higher elevations. Overnight min temperatures Tuesday
nt/Wednesday am should fall into the single digits in most areas...with
some subzero mins possible across higher terrain and possibly across
the Lake George region. It is possible that min temperatures occur early
Tuesday evening...then rise later at night as a southerly flow develops
along with increasing clouds. Wednesday nt/Thursday am mins should fall into
the teens in most valleys...with single digits confined to the
southern Adirondacks. On Thursday...maximum temperatures should reach the teens to
lower 20s...but may fall in the afternoon as low level cold
Thursday nt-Fri...generally cold and dry. Min temperatures should fall below
zero in most areas...and with some lingering wind...wind chill
values may reach advisory criteria in many areas...and possibly
warning levels across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Friday maximum
temperatures should only reach the Lower/Middle teens in valleys...and single
digits across most higher elevations.
Aviation /11z Saturday through Wednesday/...
low pressure will continue strengthening well off the southeast
New England coast...as high pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes region today. A weak upper level disturbance will approach
from the Great Lakes later tonight.
Mainly clear skies along with VFR conditions will be in place
through today...with just a few stratocu clouds around by late
in the day. Stratocu clouds will then increase Sat evening in
advance of a weak upper level disturbance approaching from the
Great Lakes. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible after 07z/sun at
kpsf. Elsewhere...most ceilings will be in the 3500-4500 feet above ground level
range...but there is a small chance that MVFR ceilings could develop
at kalb and kgfl toward 12z/sun.
West/northwest winds will continue at 10-15 knots today...with some
gusts occasionally reaching up to 25 knots at times. West winds will
decrease to under 10 knots around sunset and should continue light
from the west later Sat nt.
Sunday night: high operational impact. Definite snow.
Monday: high operational impact. Definite snow.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.
no significant Hydro problems are expected into early next week.
A widespread snowfall is expected from late Sunday evening into
Monday with moderate to significant accumulations possible. Any
change in the expected track of the storm will have a big impact
on the snowfall forecast.
Ice will continue to thicken on rivers...streams...creeks...lakes
and other bodies of water.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for ctz001-013.
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for ctz001-
New York...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for nyz038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for
Wind chill warning until 11 am EST this morning for nyz032-033.
Massachusetts...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for maz001-025.
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for maz001-
Vermont...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon for vtz013>015.
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for