Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
issued by National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
347 PM EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
an upper level trough and associated cold front will pass across the
region tonight with scattered snow showers. Some lake enhanced snow
showers are likely to prevail through Thursday...along with colder
temperatures. An Arctic cold front is expected to bring additional
snow showers on Friday with bitterly cold temperatures and wind
chill values arriving late Friday into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
lake effect Snow Advisory in effect until 6 PM EST Thursday
evening for Herkimer and Hamilton counties for 3 to 5 inches of
Large scale pattern shows developing full latitude trough across the
NE Continental U.S. With a surface cold front moving over northern and western
New York. The combination of this front...along with some upper level
energy will produce occasional snow showers through tonight. As the
low level airmass becomes colder and winds aligned in a westerly
direction...expect a band of lake effect snow to develop over
Herkimer and Hamilton counties with some additional snowfall
possible. Generally looking at a dusting to an inch in the Hudson
and Mohawk valleys with localized higher amounts in the Adirondack
Mountains. Expect this band to drop south by 12z Thursday as flow
becomes more northwest between surface and 850mb. Temperatures will
range from near 10f over the dacks to lower 20s in the Hudson
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/...
scattered snow showers are possible on Thursday associated with
trough like feature and middle level moisture. Any additional snowfall
will be light and generally under an inch. Temperatures on
Thursday will below normal given prognosticated 850mb temperatures between -20c
and -24c. Thinking highs mainly teens mountains to lower 20s
Hudson and Mohawk River valleys. Weak high pressure with mainly
dry conditions will develop across the capital district on
Thursday night into Friday. A cold night is expected with lows
ranging from near 0f Adirondack zones to lower teens near kpou. A
strong Arctic boundary will approach the region by late Friday
into Friday night. Given favorable lake moisture interaction and
good surface convergence along the boundary...expect a period of
snow showers and possible snow squalls between 21z Friday and 09z
Saturday. A quick inch or two is likely in most places with
localized higher amounts over Herkimer and Hamilton counties
associated with a period of lake effect snow showers. Another lake
effect highlight maybe needed during this period. Temperature will
fall sharply behind the boundary on brisk northwest winds and
strong low level cold air advection. Expecting lows by Saturday
morning below zero dacks to lower teens Hudson Valley with wind
chill values between -10 and -20f.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
coldest airmass of the season will occur over the region Saturday
into Sunday with dangerously cold wind chill values anticipated.
Highs will only be in the single digits below zero in the
mountains to near 10f in the Hudson Valley with brisk northwest
winds on Saturday.
For Sat night...the main story will be the bitter cold temperatures and
dangerously cold wind chills. Lows temperatures will fall to -5 to
-15 degrees in valley areas...and -10 to -20 over the high terrain.
These temperatures are impressive considering there will be gusty winds all
night...and some areas have little snow pack in place. Along with
the gusty winds...wind chill values will be as low as -20 to -30
degrees in valley areas and -30 to -50 in the higher elevations.
Wind chill warnings will likely be needed for much of the area...and
will continue to highlight this danger in the severe weather potential statement statement.
Low level thermal profiles quickly modify by Monday as surface
high pressure shifts off shore. Expect mainly dry conditions on
Monday...before next full latitude system impacts the region for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Plenty of uncertainty on the track and
potential impacts at this time...so just mentioned high chance probability of precipitation
with temperatures near normal. Some mix with rain is possible as
boundary layer warms to above oc.
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
through 18z Thursday...primarily VFR conditions for the taf
locations through the period...though could see a brief period of
MVFR with a snow shower at kgfl this afternoon...and with invervals of
ceilings 2-3kft at psf during the overnight hours. Winds are
generally light S-SW...will become light west during the overnight
period. During the daylight hours Thursday...steeper low-level lapse
rates and increasing p-gradient will result in sustained winds
10-15kts...with some gusts 20-24kts after 14z Thursday.
Outlook (18z Thursday through sunday)...
Thursday through Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy northwest
winds...gusts to 25kts possible through Thursday afternoon. Slight chance
Friday through Friday night: moderate operational impact.
Chance of shsn Friday. Possible snow squall with brief IFR
conditions Friday night into the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
Saturday through sunday: low operational impact. Northwesterly wind gusts
to 25 kts possible Saturday (mainly late morning through
tidal issues along the Atlantic Seaboard are resulting in higher
than normal tides up the Hudson River. It appears Poughkeepsie
will experience tidal impacts which may persist the next couple of
days. Otherwise...no other hydrological issues are expected at
With an approaching upper level trough...some snow showers and
flurries are possible through Thursday. Total liquid equivalent
will be very light...generally less than a tenth of an inch at any
one location...perhaps a bit higher across the western
With colder temperatures arriving by later in the week and the
upcoming weekend...ice cover on rivers and lakes will increase in
coverage and thickness. Temperatures should remain completely
below freezing from Wednesday night through the rest of the week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for nyz032-
Synopsis...weather forecast office btv
near term...weather forecast office btv
short term...weather forecast office btv
long term...weather forecast office btv