Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
123 am EDT sun Jul 5 2015
low pressure tracking to the south of the region will exit the
area early this evening...bringing an end to any leftover showers.
Improving conditions are expected tonight...with dry and warmer
weather to return for Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds
across the region.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of midnight EDT...scattered to isolated convection continues
across the southern dacks with recent hires scans suggesting a
weakening trend. So we will continue with the previous forecast of
diminishing pops/wx. Per observations and spotter reports...we
will enhance the mention of patchy dense fog to the
forecast/grids. Otherwise...just a refresh of hourly observations
An upper level trough and disturbance over the area will clear
out of the region overnight...and all showers will come to an end
late. Eventually any lingering cloudiness will decrease in all
areas tonight...becoming partly cloudy to mainly clear after
midnight. Lows will be mainly in the 50s...with some upper 40s
over higher terrain areas.
Short term /6 am this morning through Monday night/...
for Sunday into Monday...high pressure will be building both at
the surface and aloft through the short term period per the NCEP
model suite and ensemble consensus. This will result in dry and
increasingly warmer temperatures /and humidity/ as h850 temperatures
moderate into the middle teens. This points toward high temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to middle 80s on Sunday and well into
the 80s most places on Monday under a good deal of early July
sunshine. Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.
For Monday night...a upper level low and associated weak surface
low will be lifting northeastward into the region from the Middle
Atlantic States. Have forecast clouds to increase Monday night...
with a slight chance of showers after midnight. It will become
very humid Monday night and temperatures will only drop to lows in the
upper 50s and 60s.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
temperatures and precipitation will generally average normal for
The extended starts with high pressure moving offshore...
creating a southerly flow...and allowing a warm front to approach
the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by
Tuesday afternoon as it turns more humid.
The models have come into better agreement regarding the passage
of the next cold front. It looks to comes through on
Wednesday...so we will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms
in all day...highest in the afternoon. With a pretty good wind
field aloft...we will have watch to see how much instability comes
into play...as to whether or not thunderstorms could become strong
to locally severe. If the front were to move a little fast (as the
12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) would imply) there would less instability to
work with. If the slightly slower solution of the 12z Canadian
model works out...there would more opportunity for
Either way...all models indicate the front will gradually clear
our region by Thursday...allowing for high pressure and lower
humidity to work in for Thursday through Saturday with seasonably
By Sunday...both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS indicated another trough to
begin carving out across the northeast Continental U.S.. the GFS was a little
flatter and north with this idea while the European model (ecmwf) had a much deeper
trough anchored further west with a giant upper air low close to
James Bay. For now...we will go with the idea another cold
front/short wave begins to slowly approach our region Sunday with
an increase in humidity and at least the slight chance for showers
High temperatures will generally range from lower to middle 80s each
day in the valleys...75 to 80 higher terrain. Overnight lows will
range from the middle or upper 50s in outlying areas and higher
terrain...lower to middle 60s in the valleys from Albany southward.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
with moist low levels thanks to the rainfall on Saturday...LIFR/IFR
fog has developed at all taf sites and this is expected to
continue through the remainder of the overnight hours. Visibility
could be as low as 1/4sm...especially for kpsf/kgfl.
Fog should start to break up by 10z-12z...and most sites look to
be VFR after 12z with nearly clear skies and a light west-SW wind
developing. Some diurnal cumulus at 5-6 kft will form during the day on
Sunday...but it will be VFR all day with winds increasing to 5-10
kts by afternoon.
Winds will diminish on Sunday evening...and skies will be clear.
It should remain VFR through the evening hours...but some more
fog/mist will be possible once again...mainly for kgfl/kpsf...for
late Sunday night.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
moist low levels and some patchy fog tonight will keep relative humidity values
at or above 90 percent. Then generally dry weather will return for
Sunday and Monday as high pressure once again builds across the
although radar estimates indicate rainfall amounts up to a half
inch or a little more fell in some areas today...the vast majority
of the region had less than a quarter of an inch...with little or
no rainfall over the Adirondacks. This rainfall had little if any
impact on area streams and rivers.
Dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our