Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
114 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
in the wake of a cold front...high pressure will build
into the region today. This high pressure will bring fair and dry
weather for the entire Holiday weekend. Temperatures may rise well
above normal by Columbus day.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 114 am EDT...surface cold front continues to move east of eastern
New England. A secondary cold front and the upper level trough
axis are moving across the eastern Great Lakes region and west-northern New York
early this morning.
Mostly cloudy conditions prevail early this morning...but with the
strong cold advection and subsidence in the wake of the
front...expect the skies to become partly cloudy towards daybreak.
In the cold advection regime...temperatures will continue to fall into
the 30s and 40s. The colder locations will be north and west of
the capital district. Northwest winds of 5 to 15 miles per hour will continue with
a few gusts of 20 to 25 miles per hour across the Berkshires...Taconics...Litchfield
Hills and portions of the middle Hudson Valley. The isolated showers
have been removed for the early to middle morning.
Short term /6 am this morning through Monday/...
high pressure slides across the region Saturday that will
gradually shift southward to the Middle Atlantic States Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Clear skies and light winds will lead
to decent radiational cooling conditions Saturday night.
Temperatures expected to drop into the 30s...but mainly upper 30s
for the Hudson Valley from the capital district southward. So
there could be some frost for areas outside the Hudson Valley
where middle 30s are forecast...so will continue to mention in the
severe weather potential statement.
Then temperatures should rebound nicely with sunshine and warming
aloft provided by a developing low level southwest flow as surface
ridge slides toward the middle Atlantic region. Temperatures will
moderate into the 60s Sunday for valley locations then moving
into the lower 70s Monday as h850 temperatures climb toward +15c.
Otherwise...a dry period of weather expected with breezy southerly
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the long term period will see a transition to cooler weather. It
will be mainly dry after Tuesday.
Monday night...a cold front will be working toward our region from
the Great Lakes...bringing a chance of showers overnight...mainly
north and west of the capital region.
Lows will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
The cold front is forecast to cross our region Tuesday with the
chance of more showers. This front will move on by to our southeast
by Tuesday night.
Highs Tuesday look to range from the upper 50s northwest of
Albany...middle 60s locally in and around the capital region...and
upper 60s to the south and east of Albany.
Lows Tuesday night will generally be in the 40s.
By Wednesday...h850 temperatures will approach 0c as as far south as
I-90...a bit cooler to the north. With a mix of clouds and sunshine
along with a gusty breeze...high temperatures will range from the
lower 50s north and west of the capital region...to the lower 60s
south east of the capital region...locally near 60 right in the
With a trough digging into the northeast...additional short wave
energy looks to work through the region Wednesday night through
Friday bringing occasional cloudiness and additional chances of
showers...mainly to the Adirondacks and southern greens. It might
actually be cold enough for some snow showers...especially in places
over 2500 feet.
Lows Wednesday night will range from the upper 30s to middle
40s...coolest in the mountains. Highs Thursday will be similar to
Wednesday...but cooler on Friday. Friday look for highs only in the
upper 40s across the Adirondacks and southern greens...to upper 50s
from Albany southward.
Aviation /05z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a brisk northwest flow will prevent any fog from forming
anywhere overnight. However...there might some times of
MVFR clouds for awhile through about midnight...but no IFR
conditions are expected. Clouds should slowly decrease toward
A gusty northwest wind has been observed at all but kpou...and
there might be a few gusts there to 20kts. However...the overall
trend will see diminishing wind overnight into Saturday as the
flow turns more northerly.
VFR conditions are expected on Saturday with just some passing high
cirrus clouds and unrestricted visibility.
Northwest or north winds will be 5-10 kts through the entire day.
Saturday to Columbus day: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night to wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no fire weather related concerns at this time. A soaking rain
generally brought a quarter inch or better to most areas on Friday.
Dry weather through the weekend. A gusty northwest wind
around 10-15 miles per hour will diminish overnight. A north to northwest
wind will average 5-10 miles per hour on Saturday.
The wind will be light Saturday night...becoming south or southwest
5-15 miles per hour on Sunday and Monday.
While we not have a full recovery tonight due to a persistent breeze...we will
on Saturday and Sunday night. Relative humidity values will moderate each afternoon...
generally in the 40-55 percent range.
The next chance of showers will be on Tuesday.
no Hydro problems are expected through at least the next five days.
Rainfall from Friday/S event averaged anywhere from a quarter of an inch
south to around three quarters of an inch in and around the capital region...
to an inch or a bit higher north and west of the capital region.
The rain brought some within bank rises on rivers...but so far...none of them
have reached action stage.
It will be dry through the weekend with the next chance of showers on Tuesday.
Rivers will recede a little through this period...tending to be seasonal
for the time of year.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on