Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
603 am EDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Synopsis...
this week will be hot as high pressure builds in across
the region at the surface and aloft. Highs mainly in 80s are
expected much of the week...with some 90s anticipated within the
Hudson River valley during the middle and latter part of the week.
Generally dry conditions are expected through Wednesday...with just
an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 410 am EDT...high clouds continue to stream across southern
areas...in association with an upper level disturbance approaching
from the Middle Atlantic States...and also south of a weakening upper
level trough settling southward across the northeast states.
Another strong shortwave was translating east across northern
Quebec.

We expect the high clouds to persist across southern areas through
this morning...before thinning from northwest to southeast this afternoon.
Elsewhere...patchy low clouds will occasionally pass through the
southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region this morning.

Then...from later this morning into the afternoon...we expect
skies to vary from partly to mostly sunny...as cumulus/strato-cu form.
There could be a few brief periods of mostly cloudy skies in the
early afternoon once convective temperatures are reached...especially across
higher elevations. Eventually...as drier air seeps southward...we
expect the areal coverage of clouds to decrease during the late
afternoon hours.

Some mesoscale models suggest isolated showers develop from these
clouds...but model soundings suggest strong capping and middle level
subsidence developing. So...will keep out mention of any showers
at this time...but radar trends will have to be watched...in case
any of the building cumulus can grow tall enough and produce isolated
showers.

It will become breezy this afternoon...as 850-700 mb winds
strengthen between an approaching trough from the northwest...and
a low level ridge to our southeast. As mixing deepens by this
afternoon...west to northwest winds will develop and increase
into the 10-20 miles per hour range...with some gusts possibly reaching up to
25 miles per hour at times this afternoon within the Mohawk River
valley/capital region and Berkshires.

Maximum temperatures should reach the middle to upper 80s in much of the Hudson
River valley...perhaps nearing 90 in the middle Hudson Valley
assuming the high clouds depart soon enough. Elsewhere...expect
mainly Lower/Middle 80s in valleys...and 75-80 across higher
elevations.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
generally warm with no precipitation expected through this period. There
could be some patchy fog late at night through early morning. Maximum
temperatures should reach the middle/upper 80s in valleys on Tuesday...with
lower 80s for higher elevations...then should be a few degrees
warmer on Wednesday...reaching around 90 for valleys...and Lower/Middle 80s
across higher terrain. Dewpoints will remain in the Lower/Middle
60s...giving heat indices of 85-90 Tuesday...and 90-95 on Wednesday.
Overnight min temperatures should fall into the upper 50s to lower
60s...with slightly cooler temperatures possible across portions of the
southern Adirondacks...as well as across portions of southern Vermont
and western Massachusetts.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
a large ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be the
dominant weather feature across our region through the end of the
long term period. Much of the period looks to be very warm to hot
with little in the way of precipitation. Any convection
Thursday...Friday and Sunday looks to be mainly isolated. The
exception will be some scattered convection across the northwest
portion of the forecast area Thursday as a low pressure system and trailing
cold front move across southeast Canada.

Highs each day will be mainly in the 80s to lower 90s...except for
some upper 70s across terrain above 2000 feet. Lows will generally
be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Overall temperatures will be much above normal Thursday through
Sunday with precipitation below normal.

&&

Aviation /10z Monday through Friday/...
once fog Burns off early this morning...expect VFR conditions
will be in place for all taf sites with scattered cirrus clouds around.
Some scattered cumulus may develop by afternoon...mainly over the high terrain.
Skies will become sky clear this evening with fog developing at
kgfl/kpsf around 03z and becoming IFR/LIFR by 08z. Light and variable
winds overnight will become west at 8-15 kts today and then become
light and variable again this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
wind gusts of 20-25 miles per hour possible this afternoon...

A weak trough approaching from the northwest will produce some
gusty winds this afternoon from the west to northwest. Speeds will
generally average 10-20 miles per hour...but some gusts of up to 25 could
occur...especially in close proximity to the Mohawk River valley/capital
region and Berkshires.

Winds will quickly diminish around or shortly after
sunset...becoming light/variable. Light winds are expected on
Tuesday.

The relative humidity will fall into the 45-55 percent range this
afternoon...then recover to 90-100 percent tonight. The relative humidity will
fall to 40-5o percent by Tuesday afternoon.

No precipitation is expected through at least Wednesday...with
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Thursday and
Friday...mainly in the afternoons.

Widespread dew formation is likely tonight...and again Tuesday nt.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic problems are expected the next several days.
Expecting dry and hot weather as ridging builds in at the surface
and aloft across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Climate...
the longest heat in Albany has been 10 days long and it occurred August 27
through September 5 in 1953. The record high temperatures for August 29, 30
and 31 and September 1, 2 and 3 were all set during this heat and stand today.
Daily temperature records Albany date back to 1874.

Here are some record high temperatures for this week...

August 31...
albany: 93 degrees 1953
glens falls: 92 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 100 degrees 1953

September 1...
albany: 96 degrees 1953
glens falls: 91 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953

September 2...
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 97 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 101 degrees 1953

September 3...
albany: 100 degrees 1953
glens falls: 95 degrees 1953
poughkeepsie: 98 degrees 1953

September 4...
albany: 97 degrees 1929
glens falls: 92 degrees 1973
poughkeepsie: 96 degrees 1973

Records date back to 1949 for Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie...however
note that data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000 for
Poughkeepsie.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...iaa/kl
near term...kl
short term...kl
long term...11
aviation...11
fire weather...hwjiv/kl
hydrology...iaa/kl
climate...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations