Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1008 am EDT Friday Aug 22 2014
an upper level low will track off the East Coast this afternoon
with scattered to numerous showers and cool temperatures lingering
over the area for one more day. Improving conditions are expected
over the weekend as high pressure builds in at all levels of the
atmosphere from Quebec into the northeast. It will bring
increasing amounts of sunshine and warmer temperatures well into
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
isolated showers in the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie valley
this morning should increase just a little in coverage...so
scattered showers will continue in the forecast through this
afternoon. Widespread cloud cover should limit temperatures this
afternoon...so few changes if any to temperatures or sky cover.
Areas that observed flooding last night getting showers this
morning and will have to monitor closely for anything greater than
current Urban and Small Stream type flooding that could affect the
clean up out there.
During the day the probability of precipitation are forecast to slowly decrease. Highs
today will be 65 to 75.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
showers will finally come to an end tonight...and a slow clearing
trend will start later tonight through Saturday when mostly cloudy
or cloudy conditions in the morning will give way to partly sunny
skies during the afternoon. Lows tonight will be 50 to 60. Highs
Saturday in the 70s.
High pressure at all levels of the atmosphere will take hold
Saturday night into Sunday with mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures.
Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Highs Sunday
in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Sunday night-Tuesday nt...high pressure should remain in control...as
upper level ridging builds across the eastern Continental U.S.. expect
generally fair conditions...with temperatures generally rising to slightly
above normal levels. Expect maximum temperatures to reach the Lower/Middle 80s in
valleys...and 75-80 across higher elevations. Overnight mins should
fall into the 50s.
Wed-Thu...a cold front will slowly approach from the Great Lakes
region sometime late Wednesday...or more likely during Thursday. A warm
southwest flow ahead of this front should allow maximum temperatures to reach
the middle/upper 80s in valley areas...and upper 70s/lower 80s across
higher elevations Wednesday. It is possible that a few valley locations
could get close to 90 on Wednesday. Some showers/thunderstorms could reach
northwest portions of the region late Wednesday or Wednesday nt...where slight chance to
low chance probability of precipitation are indicated. It appears that a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms regionwide should occur on Thursday as the cold
front passes through. Maximum temperatures on Thursday should still reach the
Lower/Middle 80s in valley areas from Albany south...and upper 70s to
lower 80s to the north and west...with higher elevations mainly in the 70s.
Even warmer maximum temperatures could occur if the frontal system moves
slower. Min temperatures Wednesday and Thursday am should be in the 60s in valley
areas...and 50s across higher elevations.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
generally MVFR ceilings are expected through at least early this
afternoon...although a few periods of IFR ceilings/visibilities can not be
ruled out over the next few hours in any showers or areas of
drizzle. Conditions may briefly improve to VFR later this
afternoon...before trending back down to MVFR after 02z/Sat. There
is a chance of IFR ceilings to develop after 08z/Sat...especially at
kpsf...however confidence at this time is not very high so did not
explicitly include in tafs.
Winds will mainly be from the east to NE...at less than 10 knots through
Saturday-tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
scattered to numerous showers into tonight will keep fire weather
concerns at a minimum. Relative humidity values will remain above 70 percent today
and rise to near 100 percent tonight. Winds will generally be
light...under 10 miles per hour.
over the past two days...some places in the Mohawk Valley to the
Saratoga region have received up to 3 to 6 inches of rain based on
radar estimates. Flash flooding occurred early last night in
Montgomery and extreme northwest Schoharie County...with the Canajoharie
creek rising to above flood stage. However...most of the rest of the
forecast area has received an inch or less of rainfall during the
past two days...with little impact on area streams and rivers.
As the upper low tracks moves off the East Coast today...showers
will linger through most of today...with the most numerous showers
occurring this morning. Forcing today will be weaker than the past
two days...so no excessive rainfall amounts from thunderstorms expected
today since thunderstorms have not been forecast. However...numerous showers
could produce up to another inch of rain in some places today and
Showers will completely end by late tonight...with a prolonged
period of dry and increasingly warm weather expected from Saturday
through at least Wednesday night. This should allow soil conditions
to dry out once again...with stream and rivers receding...especially
in the Mohawk Valley area.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.