Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
636 am EDT sun Mar 29 2015
high pressure will build in to bring a bright sunny but
brisk day today. A fast moving clipper will bring a little snow
mainly north and west of the capital region late tonight into early
Monday...with mostly rain showers from Albany south and east.
Another cold front could bring a few more showers Monday afternoon.
High pressure will build back in Monday night.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as 630 am EDT...a mainly clear cold start to the day as temperatures
tanked in the 10-15 degree range in most places...closer to 20
toward Poughkeepsie. Most of the clouds have dissipated. Some spots
in the Adirondack were around zero degrees.
Only very minor tweaks for this update...mainly to the hourly grids.
Sunshine today will help coach temperatures back into the 30s in
most areas...upper 30s locally in the capital district. Further
south...to the Lee of the Catskills high temperatures will reach
into the lower 40s. A northwest wind will average 5 to 15 miles per hour with a
few afternoon gusts.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
clouds...racing east from the Great Lakes will overspread the region
from west to east this evening. Temperatures will drop a bit
through evening as the wind GOES light...but then the drop will
likely halt as the clouds thicken and a southerly breeze ensues. Low
temperatures will be in the 20s...to around 30 locally in the
capital region. A fast moving clipper will push a warm front to our
south inducing isentropic lift...most forcibly north of the capital
region. Light snow will likely break out in those areas...leading to
a small accumulation by Monday morning. Further south...scattered
showers of rain and snow will produce little if any accumulations.
A stiff southerly breeze will kick in by Monday...10-20 miles per hour. This
will give US a bump in temperatures...into the 40s...with some lower
50s in the middle Hudson Valley and lower Litchfield County.
A cold front will whip across the region during the
afternoon...turning the wind to the west...with gusts perhaps up to
30-40 miles per hour. At this point...it did not look strong enough for any
wind advisories...but something to watch.
It looks to remain somewhat breezy Monday night with perhaps some
lake enhanced snow showers over the Adirondacks and even some of
these attempting to work down the Mohawk Valley toward the capital
district. It turns colder with lows back down into the 20s...and
even some upper teens in the Adirondacks. These snow showers could
produce localized light accumulations...more of the nuisance
Then on Tuesday...another fast moving clipper looks to dive south of
Ontario...and most model guidance keeps it fall enough south to
prevent any precipitation associated with it from reaching our area.
However...the one exception was the 00z NAM which brought a quarter
inch of quantitative precipitation forecast to areas just south of I-90. The 00z Canadian model was
in between these two solutions...bring measurable precipitation to
our southern areas...generally well under a quarter of an inch.
For now...we have leaned with the precipitation mostly missing our
region...but keep slight chances south of I-90. It would marginally
be cold enough for snow...especially if precipitation were to fall
hard enough...but it came lighter...it would likely be a rain snow
mix in the valleys...snow higher terrain.
Assuming the precipitation is a miss...but we still have a decent
amount of clouds on Tuesday...leaned on the colder side of guidance
with highs 40-45 in the valleys...35-40 higher terrain. If we were
to get more in the precipitation these temperatures would likely be
a bit too high.
Tuesday night it clears out and we are left with a mainly clear cold
night. Lows in the lower to middle 20s Albany southward...teens further
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
dry but still cold weather to start the long term period as yet
another Canadian high pressure system moves across the region
Wednesday through Thursday morning. Mainly clear to partly cloudy
conditions during this period with highs Wednesday in the middle 30s
to middle 40s. Lows Wednesday night in the upper teens and 20s.
A cold front will approach the region Thursday...and move through
Thursday night. Have forecast dry weather in all areas Thursday
morning...but probability of precipitation increase to 20 to 40 percent Thursday afternoon
over the northwest two-thirds of the forecast area...with
continued dry conditions over the southeast third. For Thursday
night...probability of precipitation of 40 to 50 percent have been forecast in all areas
as the front moves through. A strong southerly flow ahead of this
front will carry much milder air into the region. Highs Thursday
will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s...and lows Thursday night will
be in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
Beyond this point there is significant model disagreement. Based
on the GFS...once this front clears the region early Friday
morning...the weather remains dry but cold through Saturday...with
the moisture associated with any waves that form along the front
passing by to the south of the region. However...the European model (ecmwf) moves
the front through the region much slower...and lingers moisture
over the area into Saturday morning. As a result...will keep 30 to
40 percent probability of precipitation across the region into Saturday morning...then
start to dry things out Saturday afternoon. Highs Friday will be
in the upper 40s and 50s. Lows Friday night will be in the middle 20s
to middle 30s...and if precipitation does occur...most areas will get the precipitation
in the form of snow. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 30s and
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure will build across the region today...then move off
the middle Atlantic coast tonight...resulting in an increasing
southerly flow late tonight. Expect mainly p6sm sky clear conditions at
the kalb/kgfl/kpou/kpsf taf sites through early Sunday evening...
then middle/high clouds will begin to increase later Sunday evening.
Winds will be northwest today at 5 to 10 kts...except south at
kgfl. The winds will light and variable this evening...but a
southerly flow late tonight will increase the wind to 5 to 10 kts
again...with some gusts of around 15 kts...especially at kalb.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Windy. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Windy. Slight chance of
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of snow.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: low operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
mostly sunny but cold today with a northwest wind 5-15 miles per hour with a
few higher gusts. Relative humidity values will drop to the low side in the 30-40
Snow is likely late tonight into Monday north of the capital region
with minor accumulations...scattered rain or snow showers from
Albany southward with little if any accumulation. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will
generally be under a quarter of an inch.
Chilly Monday night with some lake enhanced snow showers across the
Adirondacks into the Mohawk Valley and southern greens...dry
elsewhere. Tuesday should be main dry as a compact low is expected
to track mainly south of our region.
Wednesday looks dry.
A light wind this evening will become southerly around 10 miles per hour by
daybreak Monday. This wind will increase as it shifts from south to
northwest averaging 10-20 miles per hour with some higher gusts to 30-35 miles per hour
possible. This wind will persist into Tuesday evening before
diminishing Tuesday night.
no Hydro related problems are anticipated through at least the
middle of the upcoming week.
Recent rainfall and snow melt has allowed for some minor rises on
rivers and streams but colder weather will slow any rises.
Rivers will likely slowly fall or hold steady through the
During the first portion of next week...some scattered rain
and snow showers are expected between late Sunday night and Monday
evening. Quantitative precipitation forecast of a quarter inch or less is expected with this
activity...and some areas may not see precipitation.
Temperatures will rise to above freeing this afternoon and again
Monday afternoon. This will allow for a slow but gradual melt on the
snowpack in place... and river ice will continue to slowly decrease
and rotate away.
A rapid warmup or significant rainfall isn/T expected through the
middle of the upcoming week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our