Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
837 am EDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Synopsis...
a sprinkle or light rain shower is possible this morning from the
Catskills...to the middle Hudson Valley...to the southern Berkshires
and Litchfield Hills. Otherwise...clouds will gradually break for
sunshine today...with another warm afternoon. A stationary front
south of the region may cause rain showers over southern areas
tonight into Wednesday. Dry weather will return for the remainder
of the week...with temperatures continuing above normal.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
based on user request we will be issuing a Special Weather
Statement for southern Vermont for localized fire weather
concerns.

As of 837 am EDT...a surface cold front has moved across the Albany
forecast area. Wind have become northwest across the area. Satellite
imagery shows multiple cloud layers with the densest cloud cover
from the Catskills eastward across the middle Hudson Valley to the
southern Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Kenx radar shows a few
light rain showers and sprinkles currently over the
Catskills...Taconics and Berkshires. These may be having a tough
time reaching the ground due to dry low levels and light
intensity. As the front continues to push eastward...the threat
for showers/sprinkles should end by 10 am.

Partial clearing will continue to occur from north to south
through the day. Most of the area will see persistent high clouds
with patches of low and middle clouds.

850 hpa temperatures have dropped a few degrees since yesterday...and it
won't mix quite as deep as yesterday either. As a result...maximum
temperatures today will mainly be in the 70s. While this is still above
normal...it won't be the very warm temperatures we saw yesterday.

In addition...with weaker winds aloft and less mixing...winds will
be lighter today as well. West-northwest winds will become north at 5-10
miles per hour. Although still very dry...this should help keep fire weather
concerns lower than yesterday.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
the frontal boundary will be situated south of the region for
tonight across the northern Middle Atlantic States. This surface boundary
will become parallel to the upper flow...allowing it slow down.
Meanwhile...a weak wave will move along the frontal boundary.
There won't be much of a surface reflection along the front...but this
middle level wave /currently seen in satellite imagery over the
Midwest/ will provide some lift tonight into Wednesday. Although
the bulk of the showers will remain south of the region...a period
of light rain showers may clip into the southern Catskills...middle
Hudson Valley...and northwest CT for late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.
Up to a third of an inch of rain is possible. With our area being
on the cooler side of the boundary...will not include any thunder
at this time.

Temperatures tonight will mainly be in the middle 40s to middle 50s...warmest
in the middle Hudson Valley where the most clouds will be in place.
Some 30s will occur over the Adirondacks and Lake George
area...and some patchy frost cannot be ruled out. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be mild once again...with 70s for most areas. Temperatures
will be warmest in northern areas...where the most sun will
occur...as skies will be mostly cloudy for southern areas...closer
to the frontal boundary.

High pressure will move across the region for Wednesday night through
Thursday night...allowing for mostly clear skies and continued above
normal warmth. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s for Wednesday
night /some 30s in high terrain areas/ and 50s for Thursday night
/some 40s for high terrain areas/. Highs on Thursday will be in
the middle 70s to middle 80s...warmest in the Hudson Valley.

&&

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
expecting above normal temperatures with increasing chances for
rainfall/convection as we head into the latter part of the weekend
into early next week.

Initially the region will be dominated by ridging at the surface and
aloft. However...the upper ridge will flatten and the surface high will
shift farther offshore as the weekend progresses allowing a cold front
to slowly approach from the Great Lakes region. Dew points will be
on the rise over the weekend with values into the upper 50s to lower
60s by Sunday...making it feel a bit humid.

All this will result in an increasing threat for showers...along with the
threat for a few thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours and especially on Sunday as a cold front moves closer to
the region. The convection is expected to be scattered in nature with
the primary driver diurnal heating in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front. Better chances will be across the northern portion of the forecast
area closer to the approaching boundary.

The forecast become more uncertain as we head into next week as the
upper-level pattern across the central Continental U.S. Develops into a split flow
regime and the surface cold front becomes stalled across our region as a
quasi-stationary boundary Sunday night into Monday. Ripples of low pressure
are then expected to move along the boundary as a more pronounced low
pressure system develops across the lower Midwest region. This will keep
the weather unsettled as we head into next week.

Temperatures are anticipated to run 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the
warmest day of the period Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

&&

Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions expe4cted through the taf period ending at 12z/Wednesday.

There continues to be some isolated light showers occurring across the southern
third of the forecast area in the vicinity of the cold front as it continues
to press southeastward. The frontal boundary is expected to become stalled
just to the south of the area across Pennsylvania and the New York metropolitan
area by this evening. The cloud cover will decrease today as the boundary moves
to our south. Clouds will be back on the increase in the evening as a disturbance
moves eastward along the boundary. There will be increasing chances for showers
at kpou toward daybreak.

Westerly winds in the wake of the boundary will shift more to the north
today at generally 10 knots or less. The winds will diminish in the evening.

Outlook...
Wednesday-Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sat: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sat night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sun: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
significant rainfall /greater than a quarter of an inch/ has not
occurred in well over a week across the region and state officials
have noted that Forest fuels are rather dry at this time.

A cold front is moving through the region early this morning with
a few very light rain showers or sprinkles. Most areas will wind
up staying dry and not receive any measurable precipitation. This
front will pass to the south of the region by later today...and
some additional rain showers will be possible for far southern
areas for tonight into Wednesday as a wave moves along the slow
moving frontal boundary.

Although it will be cloudy to start the day today...some clearing
will occur through the day from north to south. Relative humidity values will
range from 20 to 40 percent today...with the lowest values across
northern areas. The wind today will be light...becoming
north at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Relative humidity values will return to 75 to 95 percent
tonight with some dew formation. Relative humidity values will once again drop 25
to 50 percent on Wednesday afternoon...with the lowest values in northern
areas...and highest values across the south...where some rain
showers will be possible. Winds will be light and variable on
Wednesday.

Dry weather will return for late Wednesday through the rest of the
week. Although relative humidity values will drop to 30 percent each day during
the afternoon hours with warm temperatures...winds are expected to be very
light.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.

A cold front will pass through the region this morning and stall
to the south of the region for tonight into Wednesday. A few light
rain showers or sprinkles are possible early today...although
most areas will stay dry. Some additional rain showers are
possible across far southern areas for tonight into Wednesday with
the nearby boundary in place. Dry weather should return for late
Wednesday through the remainder of the week...as high pressure moves
across the region.

Most areas will see little to no quantitative precipitation forecast over the next few days...except
for far southern areas...such as the southeastern Catskills...middle
Hudson Valley...and northwest CT...where up to a third of an inch of
basin average rainfall will be possible for tonight into
Wednesday.

As a result...rivers and streams will either hold steady or
slowly recede through the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our web site.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...snd/frugis
near term...snd/frugis
short term...frugis
long term...iaa/irl
aviation...iaa
fire weather...frugis
hydrology...frugis

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations