Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
145 PM EDT Monday may 4 2015
plenty of sunshine and a warm southwesterly flow will allow for
above normal temperatures today. An approaching cold front will
bring the chance for some showers tonight into tomorrow
morning...with an isolated rumble of thunder also possible. Dry
weather will return for the rest of the week...along with
continued above normal temperatures.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1230 PM EDT...temperatures are more like the Fourth of July
than the 4th of may...climbing well into the 70s...and in some cases
already have surpassed 80 degrees.
Satellite pictures indicated that small cumulus field developing but
nothing more. We are weakly capped at this time and moisture is
For this update...decided to raise some temperatures 2-3 degrees
higher across certain sections...based on current observation and the
potential for downslope off the Catskills into the Hudson Valley
that has not fully realized.
Look for high temperatures in the middle or even upper 80s in the
valleys...(warmest in the middle Hudson valley)....70s to lower 80s
across the higher terrain.
A gusty southwest wind should kick in during the afternoon...with
gusts up to 30-35 miles per hour possible. Relative humidity values will be
very low...dipping into the 20s and even some teens.
Some middle and high level clouds should start to increase late in the
day as the upstream cold front starts to approach...but it looks dry
for most of the area through at least the early evening hours.
Latest hrrr has some showers reaching northern Herkimer and Hamilton
counties between 5 and 7 PM. Slight chance probability of precipitation for the western
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
the cold front looks to move across the region tonight into
Tuesday...and slowly drift to the south through the remainder of
the short term period.
As a result...some rain showers will be possible for tonight into
Tuesday. There won't be a lot of moisture associated with this
boundary...and showers won't be overly widespread. Most areas will
only see a few passing light showers with the cold frontal
passage. Best chance for seeing rainfall looks north and west of
the capital region. Clouds will increase this evening...and it
will be fairly cloudy into the start of Tuesday. Temperatures overnight
with the clouds/showers will be mild with upper 40s to upper 50s
across the region.
Skies will gradually clear from north to south through
the day Tuesday...although southern areas /Catskills...middle Hudson
Valley...northwest CT/ may wind up staying cloudy with a chance of
showers through the entire day Tuesday and into Tuesday evening.
Temperatures on Tuesday will still be mild...although not quite as warm
as Monday...with highs in the 70s.
With the front just south of the area...there still may be a
lingering shower and some clouds for far southern areas on Tuesday
night...but most areas will see a partly to mostly clear sky on
Tuesday night with dry weather. Temperatures will range from the 30s in
the Adirondacks to the upper 40s in the middle Hudson Valley where
more clouds will remain.
High pressure looks to build in for Wednesday through Wednesday
night with mostly clear skies as the cold front finally drifts
southward towards the middle Atlantic region. Despite being behind
the cold front...daytime temperatures will still be quite warm...with
highs on Wednesday being in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Min temperatures
on Wednesday night will generally be in the 40s...although a few 30s are
possible for the higher elevations.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
model guidance is in general agreement that the longwave pattern will
feature a ridge over the northeastern United States with a trough over
the western United States for the latter part of the week shifting
to the over the plains over the weekend. While off the southeast
coast...an area of low pressure underneath the ridge remain nearly
stationary off the coast.
Dry and warm weather is expected for Thursday and Friday. However as we
head through mother's day weekend there will be increasing chances for
some showers as a cold frontal boundary approaches from the Great
Lakes region and dew points rise. The region will be in the warm sector
of the approaching system so above normal temperatures are expected
to continue as the boundary approaches. 850 mb temperatures are
forecast to warm to 12-15c over the weekend.
Overall looking for temperatures to run 10 to 15 degrees above
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
mainly VFR conditions are expected through the taf period...18z
High pressure will dominate the weather today with a cold front
bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers tonight into
tomorrow. Gradual clearing is expected tomorrow for most locations
but kpou is expected to stay cloudy with a threat of showers
continuing as the front slows down south of the Albany forecast
Gusty south to southwesterly winds at 10 to 20 knots are expected
this afternoon diminishing to southwest at 5 to 10 knots tonight.
Winds will shift to northwest at 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning
with the passage of the cold front.
tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance -shra.
Tuesday night-friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
a red flag warning has been issued at the request of the New York
state Dec Forest rangers and emergency management and the
Massachusetts department of conservation and recreation.
Although red flag warnings have not been issued for southern Vermont
and northwestern Connecticut...localized fire weather issues are
possible in those areas as well.
Significant rainfall /greater than a quarter of an inch/ has not
occurred in well over a week across the region and state officials
have noted that Forest fuels are rather dry at this time. Relative humidity values
are expected to fall to 15 to 25 percent this afternoon...and S-SW
winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour with gusts 25-35 miles per hour are expected...along with
afternoon temperatures in the middle 70s to upper 80s. As a
result...any fires may become difficult to control this afternoon
into this evening. Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the northeast in an
elevated fire weather risk area.
Relative humidity values are expected to recover to 90 to 100 percent tonight
with some rain showers possible. Rain showers are expected to be
light...and most areas won't see a quarter of an inch of rainfall.
West winds will be at 5 t0 15 miles per hour.
With rain showers ending...and skies starting to clear out...relative humidity
values on Tuesday will fall to 30 to 50 percent...with the lowest
values over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. However...winds will be
lighter on Tuesday...with northwest winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the week...with
relative humidity values dropping to near 30 percent each afternoon.
However...winds are expected to be fairly light for the rest of
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.
Dry weather will be in place today with above normal temperatures.
A cold front will bring some light rain showers to the region
tonight into tomorrow. The best chance will be for areas north and
west of the capital region. Basin average rainfall will generally
only be a tenth or two tenth of an inch. With vegetation starting
to green up over the area...this rainfall will have little to no
impact on area rivers and streams.
Dry weather will be in place for Tuesday night through the
remainder of the week. As a result...rivers and streams will
either hold steady or slowly recede through the week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
our web site.
New York...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for nyz032-033-
Massachusetts...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for maz001-025.
Vermont...red flag warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for vtz013>015.