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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
651 am EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Synopsis...
a wave of low pressure will track along a cold front stalled to
the south of our region and then track out to sea today. A weak
ridge of high pressure will build into our region late today
through Wednesday bringing dry weather to our region during the
middle week period.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 615 am EDT...low pressure was located over Delaware-Maryland-Virginia along a
stationary front and slowly tracking eastward away from the
region. A large area of rainfall extends from southeast New York and
south central New England southward to the area of low pressure.
For today expect mainly cloudy conditions with the bulk of the
precipitation confined to the southeastern third of the forecast area. That is not to
say that other portions of the forecast area will be dry...quite the contrary
as areas of drizzle and scattered showers will be about across the
remainder of the forecast area at least through the morning hours. It will be
quite cool once again...but a little milder than Monday with highs
in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
for the short term will be going with the European model (ecmwf) solution with
regards to Thursday and Thursday night in keeping the forecast
dry. Expect high pressure to be in control of our weather from
this evening through Thursday night with dry weather expected
through the period with a gradual warming trend.

Expect lows tonight to be in the upper 30s to middle 40s with highs
on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s...lows Wednesday night
in the upper 30s to lower 50s with highs on Thursday in the middle
60s to middle 70s and lows Thursday night in the upper 40s to middle
50s.

&&

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
the extended forecast opens with an upper level low over the middle
Atlantic region...and a frontal boundary near the Atlantic Seaboard.
Upstream of New York and New England a cold front will be approaching the
eastern Great Lakes region...and the St Lawrence River valley on Friday.
Humidity levels will start to creep up with surface dewpoints rising into
the m50 to l60s. The GFS continues to be a little faster with the
cold front moving towards the forecast area compared to European model (ecmwf). The northern
stream upper trough is stronger on the GFS. The instability
increases ahead of the boundary for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms especially in the late afternoon into the early
evening. H850 temperatures increase to +11c to +13c ahead of the front
with high temperatures in the middle to u70s over the hills and in the
valleys...and u60s to l70s over the mountains the front slowly sags
S/southeast across eastern New York and western New England Friday night for a continued
chance of showers along the frontal axis. Lows will generally be in
the u50s to l60s with some u40s to m50s over the southern dacks.

Sat-sun...the European model (ecmwf) is slower clearing the front to start the
weekend. The GFS has a 1028 hpa surface anticyclone rapidly building in
from south of James Bay. A slight chance of showers was kept in during
the morning especially south and east of the capital district/I-90
corridor. Northwest flow will dominate aloft with a seasonably cool and
dry air mass building in. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to
m70s over the valleys and hills...with middle and u60s over the mountains
decreasing winds...and clearing skies will yield a cool early June
night with comfortable humidity levels with lows in the middle and u40s
north and west of the capital district...and lower to m50s from the
capital district south and east. The surface anticyclone moves east of
the New England coast on Sunday. A mostly sunny start will give way
to increasing high clouds late in the day. Overall...a nice close
to the weekend is expected with high temperatures near or slightly below
normal with lower to m70s in the valleys...and 60s over the mountains

Sunday night into Monday...unsettled weather returns to eastern New York and
western New England with a strong upper level trough approaching the
Great Lakes region and the Midwest. The upper level low may turn
negatively tilted with an occluded front approaching late in the day
from the west. The surface cyclone deepens close to 992 hpa on both the
GFS/European model (ecmwf) north/NE of Georgian Bay...and there is pretty good
convergence with the front. The GFS shows modest amounts of
instability for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to open the work
week. Temperatures look to finish the long term near normal.

&&

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a low pressure system will pass south of the region this morning.
Scattered showers and drizzle will end south and east of Albany
before noontime. Conditions will gradually improve during the
afternoon...as the upper low passes north of the region...and
high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes region into tonight.

Conditions are generally in the MVFR range this morning with areas
of drizzle and light rain...especially south and east of the
capital region. There maybe some brief lapses to IFR ceilings at kalb
prior to 14z and a tempo was used there. MVFR ceilings in the 1.5-3.0
kft above ground level range will persist into the early to middle afternoon.

Drier air will gradually filter in from the north and west during
the afternoon...and the ceilings will gradually rise to low VFR
levels by the late afternoon/early evening. Prior to midnight...the
skies will clear except for some high clouds S/southeast of kalb. Some
patchy fog will likely develop in the radiative environment with
residual low level moisture left in the boundary layer. MVFR
visibilities were mainly forecast between 07z-09z/Wed...with some IFR visibilities at
kpsf.

The winds will be from north to northwest at 4-8 kts in the late morning
into the afternoon. Expect light to calm winds tonight at 5 kts or
less.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday to thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
a wave of low pressure will track along a cold front stalled to
the south of our region and then track out to sea today. A weak
ridge of high pressure will build into our region late today
through Wednesday bringing dry weather to our region during the
middle week period.

Relative humidities will only drop to 60 to 80 percent today
recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight and drop to 30 to 45 percent
on Wednesday.

Winds will be northeast to northwest around 5 miles per hour
today...north to northeast around 5 miles per hour tonight and northeast to
east around 5 miles per hour on Wednesday.

&&

Hydrology...
one more period of rainfall is expected through at least this
morning mainly across the southeast third of the hsa. Additional
rainfall amounts up to half an inch from the middle Hudson Valley
and northwestern Connecticut into the southern Berkshires with the
heaviest rain potentially in northwestern Connecticut. All other
areas of eastern New York into southern Vermont and the northern Berkshires
can expect a tenth to a quarter of an inch...with the least to
the north...and the most south and east of the capital district.

These additional rainfall amounts will result in additional small
rises on area rivers...with most rivers remaining below action
stage. The exception is the Still River at Brookfield where a
Flood Warning is in place for minor flooding.

Drier air will begin to filter back in later today...tapering the
rain to scattered showers before ending by late day. Drier weather
will return through Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...11/NAS
near term...11
short term...11
long term...wasula
aviation...wasula
fire weather...11
hydrology...11/NAS

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