Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
746 PM EDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
high pressure will start to build across the northeast
tonight and Friday. This will bring fair and seasonable weather
across the northeast through Saturday night. Well above normal
temperatures will move into the region early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 746 PM EDT...upper level trough is finally starting to move
away from the region. The diurnally-forced showers that have
occurred today have dissipated...and clouds are starting to break
up as well.
Overnight...expect the sky to gradually clear and winds subside
to near calm conditions. Temperatures will cool off tonight with
diminishing winds and clear skies. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s
across the north country/Adirondacks and low/middle 50s across much
of the greater capital district area. There may be some patchy fog
in the usual prone locations...such as areas near bodies of water.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/...
high pressure will be over the region during the beginning of the
short term period. Friday and Saturday will be quiet with no
precipitation and temperatures near normal. Temperatures on
Friday will be near normal and temperatures on Saturday may even
be a tad above normal. Temperatures on Saturday will all be dependent on
how much high level clouds we have with the next approaching
Saturday night and Sunday...a few short waves along a boundary will
approach the region. This will setup across an axis of warm and
humid air. Will mention a low probability of precipitation for
showers and possibly thunder across the region Sunday afternoon
into Monday. Models showing best cape and instability with this
feature across northern PA...western New York and central New York
Sunday afternoon. Will see an increase in afternoon clouds across
the area and low chance for some thunderstorms and rain or rain showers Sunday afternoon and
evening. At this time...the areas from the capital district south
and west have the best chance for showers and possibly a
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
Summer returns as the heat and humidity increases. High pressure
will strengthen during the long term period. GFS showing the ridge
of high pressure well defined. The 500mb heights will be higher
than normal. Temperatures at the 850 millibar level will be well
above normal. Precipitation chances will low during the extended period
with the dome of high pressure. Kept a very low...slight
probability of precipitation across the western half of the area on
Monday due to some uncertainty of the trough axis and any waves
before the high pressure builds in completely. Expect above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation during the
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are in place for all taf sites. Scattered-broken ceilings at 4-7
kft will gradually decrease through the evening hours. Some IFR
fog may develop late tonight for kgfl/kpsf...otherwise VFR
conditions will continue with clearing skies and light winds. Any
late night fog should dissipate by 12z.
With high pressure in place...sunny skies will be in place for
Friday morning. Few-scattered diurnal cumulus may develop by Friday afternoon around
4-5 kft...especially for the high terrain. VFR conditions will continue
with light S-SW winds around 5 kts.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: low operational impact. Isolated thunderstorms and rain.
Saturday night: low operational impact. Isolated thunderstorms and rain.
Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sunday night: low operational impact. Isolated thunderstorms and rain.
Monday: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...tsra.
any scattered showers across the area will come to an end at sun
set. High pressure will start to build into our area on Friday
brining dry and light winds. A few disturbances will move through
the region on Sunday. This will bring a low threat of some showers
and possibly a thunderstorm late Sunday.
The relative humidity values will be around 45 to 55 tonight. They will
increase on Friday and Saturday.
Winds will become light to calm overnight. On Friday winds will
also be light out of the west...north west as we under high
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days. The
precipitation that we had today was generally light across areas
north of the capital region. Our next chance of rain showers will
be on Sunday with a few waves moving through. At this time...this
does not look to be a major rain event. Basin-average rainfall
values are expected to be under a quarter of an inch throughout
the five day period.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on