Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
155 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015
a weak disturbance aloft will allow for increasing clouds as well
as isolated showers or thunderstorms today. Afterward...an upper
level ridge of high pressure will become situated over the region
for much of the upcoming week...allowing for above normal
temperatures and increased levels of humidity.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 120 PM EDT...patchy clouds continue to overspread over
portions of the entire region. Rain showers continue to dissipate
as they move into portions of the western Adirondacks. Best chance
of an isolated shower as we move later on into the afternoon will
be in our far southern areas where higher dewpoints in the middle 60s
and warmer temperatures already into the lower 80s may produce a
pop up shower.
For this update...took out thunder from the grids as 12z Albany
and 12z Buffalo upper air data shows little to no surface based instability
over our region or advecting into our region from the west as we
go later on in the afternoon hours. High temperatures will still
range from the upper 70s in high terrain to lower and middle 80s for
As temperatures cool past the crossover temperature...patchy fog
in valley locations is expected...otherwise a rather muggy evening
with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to lower and middle
Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
high pressure will be the dominant feature across the forecast area through
the short term period. There will be a gradual increase in
temperature and humidity as we go from into the middle week period.
Despite the humidity is expected to be dry through Tuesday night.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with highs
on Monday in the upper 70s to around 90. Lows Monday night are
once again expected to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with highs on
Tuesday in the 80s to around 90. Lows Tuesday night are expected
to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Dewpoints will generally be in
the 60s Monday and Tuesday.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
a large upper level ridge will dominate the weather through most
of the extended period...allowing for above normal temperatures
and generally below normal precipitation.
The combination of high middle/upper level heights...850 temperatures in the
+16 to +18 c range...and a low level northwest wind flow should
allow maximum temperatures to reach at least the lower 90s within much of the
Hudson River valley for Wednesday and Thursday...85-90 in the Mohawk Valley
region...with 80s for most higher terrain...although some of the
highest peaks of the southern Adirondacks and SW Vermont may remain
slightly cooler...around 80. Humidity levels should be
moderate...with dewpoints in the 60s. This should allow heat indices
both days to reach into the middle to perhaps upper 90s within the
Hudson River valley...and lower 90s elsewhere. Overnight min temperatures
for Wednesday nt/Thursday am and Thursday nt/Friday am should mainly be in the 60s.
A weak upper level impulse may approach from the west/northwest
sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. In addition...a weak back door cold
front associated with this feature may settle southwest into the
forecast area on Friday. Overall forcing with these features should
remain weak...however there may be just enough instability working
in tandem with the weak forcing to allow for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers/thunderstorms...especially Thursday and Friday. Friday maximum temperatures may
be slightly cooler due to more clouds...and the possibility of
isolated to scattered convection...with 80s for most lower
elevations...and middle 70s to lower 80s across higher terrain.
Models suggest that a surface high builds into the region from the
northeast or east for late Friday into Sat...with the possible backdoor
cold frontal boundary pushing west and south of the region. Will
indicate dry conditions during this time period...along with
slightly cooler temperatures...albeit still above seasonal levels...with
maximum temperatures on Sat ranging from 75-80 across higher terrain...to the
Lower/Middle 80s in valleys. Friday nt/Sat am min temperatures should fall into
the lower 60s in lower elevations...and middle/upper 50s across higher
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR flying conditions will hold into the evening hours.
However...sub-VFR fog is a good bet overnight into the
For this afternoon...there could be a few light showers or
sprinkles but most if not all of the time will be dry. Ceilings will
remain middle level and the wind light and variable.
Tonight...clouds will tend to dissipate after midnight leaving
US the likelyhood of fog formation. For now...plan on IFR mist
(2sm) at kgfl/kpsf and kalb 08z-12z and MVFR mist (3sm) kpou from
Confidence in this scenario is moderate but best to check in
later overnight or first thing tomorrow should you plan to fly
After 12z Monday...we will be looking at another VFR flying day
with only few-scattered cumulus bases (above 5000 kft) and light wind become
west around 5-10kts (more sw) at kgfl.
Sun night-Wednesday night: patchy fog late at night/early in the am.
Thu: low operational impact. Isolated rain showers...thunderstorms and rain
dry weather is expect for much of the upcoming week.
Most of the region has not seen significant rainfall in over a
week. This had led to the keetch-byrram drought index approaching
300 in our southern zones...and likely to continue to rise over
the days to come.
That said...the wind during the next week looks to remain calm
at night and light during the day (generally under 10 mph).
A full or nearly recovery is expected each of the next several
nights allowing for the formation of dew.
Relative humidity values during the afternoon will be in the moderate range
no hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next five days.
No widespread rainfall is forecast to fall for at least the next
five days as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
River levels will continue to run below normal levels for
August...and if anything...might drop a little more.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on