Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
651 am EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
temperatures will moderate as we head into the weekend with
seasonably warm readings expected Saturday. Today high pressure will
shift off to our east as a low pressure system approaches from the
Great Lakes region. The system will bring some showers to the region
as it moves through tonight. A secondary cold front will follow
ushering in a much colder Sunday which will linger into early next
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
ridging at the surface crested over the region early this morning
and is shift off to our east allowing a southerly return to develop.
Despite a chilly start temperatures will warm toward seasonable
levels with afternoon highs 20 to 25 degrees warmer than yesterday
afternoon. The southerly flow will become breezy this afternoon
as the pressure gradient tightens across the region between the
departing ridge and an approaching low pressure system. The
system's warm front will move through...however no precipitation
is expected as have a rather weak upper ridge over the region.
Made adjustments to better reflect current conditions especially
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
tough temperature forecast tonight into Saturday with low pressure
system moving across the region. The region will be in the warm
sector with the cold front approaching and a potent upper level
shortwave trough approaching all bringing chances for precipitation/showers
to the region. Temperatures should initially drop this evening
then stabilize...then rise late tonight. Overall expecting rain
and snow showers overnight however there will be a period across
mainly the upper Hudson Valley where surface temperatures will
be below freezing and soundings indicate the possibility for light
freezing rain. Have this threat mentioned in the hazardous weather
outlook. Any freezing rain would be very light and likely brief.
Seasonably warm temperatures are expected Saturday however this
will be short lived. The low pressure system's cold front will move
off to our east on Saturday...however a secondary front will
approach and cross the region during the evening. This boundary
will usher in another cold airmass. Chances for showers will
continued until the secondary passes through with the best chances
across the higher terrain especially north and west of the capital
district. Snowfall accumulations will be light.
High pressure originating over central Canada will build behind
the boundary to close out the weekend. Temperatures on Sunday are
anticipated to around 15 degrees below normal and a northwesterly
wind will only make it feel even colder.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
at the start of the extended period...an area of low pressure will
be passing off the middle Atlantic coast for Monday into Monday night.
The models have not been in agreement regarding the amplification of
this system...as the NAM/ggem have been aggressive with phasing both
the northern and southern streams and bringing this system up
towards our area more than the ECMWF/GFS...which has been more
suppressed and flat with the waves...keeping most of the activity
well south of our area. All models have shown a bit of a northern
trend with this system over the past few runs...and there is some of
a signal in both the 03z sref/00z gefs for this system to have an
impact on our area. For now...will go with slight chance/chance probability of precipitation
across central...southern and eastern parts of the area for
snow...as temperatures would be sufficiently cold enough for all snow with
this event. If this trend continues...probability of precipitation may need to be increased
across more of our area. Temperatures look rather cold...with maximum temperatures
mainly in the 20s...and mins in the single digits and teens.
Behind this system...some ridging will develop at 500 hpa...which
will allow for dry weather for Tuesday and Tuesday night with
moderating temperatures. Temperatures will be warmer for Tuesday /but still below
normal/ with middle 20s to middle 30s for highs...and teens for Tuesday
By Wednesday...temperatures look to be a little more closer to
normal...with middle 30s to low 40s across the area. A system will be
moving across the Great Lakes on Wednesday...and head towards our
area for Thursday. This will allow for a chance for rain and snow
showers for late Wednesday into Wednesday night along the storm/S warm front and
some rain showers on Thursday along the cold front. Mins look to be
in the 20s for Wednesday night...and highs ahead of the approaching cold
front will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s for Thursday.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
warm air advection has allowed a batch of broken-overcast middle level clouds
to move over the terminals this morning with VFR conditions and
light southerly winds.
During the day today...broken clouds will continue for the morning
hours as a warm front moves through the region. No precipitation is
expected with this front across our area. Behind the warm
front...there may be decreasing amounts of cloudiness in the afternoon
hours...with just scattered low and middle level clouds for most sites with
VFR conditions. Southerly winds will increase throughout the
day...with winds of 10-15 kts for most taf sites.
This evening into tonight...clouds will start to increase as a cold
front approaches from the Great Lakes with broken ceilings around 5-7 kft.
It should stay dry through 06z...although there will be an
increasing threat for rain showers /and perhaps freezing rain if surface
temperatures can cool enough for kgfl/ late in the night. S-SW winds of
5-10 kts will continue for much of the overnight hours.
Sat night-Sun: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sun night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Monday-Tue: no operational impact. No sig weather.
temperatures will moderate as we head into the weekend. However with
such a cold start temperatures today will still be below normal by 5
to 10 degrees. Seasonable temperatures are expected Saturday with
below normal temperatures returning Sunday and lingering into early
next week. So very little snow melt should occur.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.