Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
133 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will continue to build in from the lower Great
Lakes region and Ohio Valley today. The surface high will move
offshore tonight into Sunday with milder weather and above normal
temperatures expected to close the Columbus day weekend. The next
chance of rain showers should arrive late Monday night into
Tuesday with a cold front.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 130 PM EDT...current forecast continues in good shape. Mainly
sunny skies valley locations with partly/mostly cloudy conditions
prevailing across higher elevations. As noted previously...enough
drying/subsidence should allow the clouds to decrease this
afternoon.Temperatures look to be on track...so no changes
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
tonight...a broad area of surface pressure will build in from
PA/NJ/srn New England early on this evening. Clear/mostly clear
skies and light to calm winds will promote ideal radiational
cooling quickly. However...with a weak disturbance in the west/northwest
aloft moving across southeast Quebec and northern New England...then some high
clouds or thin cirrus may increase over the northern zones /north and
east of the capital region/. Our confidence was great enough to
issue a frost advisory for locations where the growing season is
still going...especially north and east of the capital region.
These locations included the north-central Taconics...parts of the
Mohawk River valley /srn Herkimer...and southern Fulton counties/...The
Glens falls...Southern Lake George and northern Saratoga region /se
Warren...Washington...and northern Saratoga counties/...the
Berkshires...and eastern Windham city in southern Vermont for temperatures in the 33-36f
range. Some zones were close such as Montgomery...southern Saratoga and
parts of the eastern Catskills...but not quite half the zone /area-
wise/ hit the frost advisory criteria. The frost advisory was run
from midnight to 9 am...just in case temperatures drop off quickly in the
radiative environment. Outside the frost advisory lows will be in
the u20s to m30s across the southern dacks...and Bennington and western
Windham counties in Vermont where the growing season ended last week.
Most other locations will be in the u30s to near 40f.
Sunday...a very nice middle day to the Columbus Holiday weekend
will set-up with low and middle level warm advection increasing as
the surface high drifts off the southern New England coast. H850 temperatures
rise to +9c to +13c. The boundary layer winds increase from the west
to SW at 15 to 25 kts. Mostly sunny conditions are expected with
the surface anticyclone riding in from the south and west. High temperatures
on Sunday should be close to 5 degrees above normal with middle and
u60s in the valley areas...and u50s to m60s over the hills and
Sunday night...temperatures will not be as cold as the previous night
with the low and middle level ridging increasing from the south and
west. A deepening upper level trough will be approaching from the
upper Midwest and S-central Canada. Lows will be mainly in the lower
Columbus day into Tuesday morning...a great finish to the Holiday
weekend is expected with increasing low and middle level heights over
New York and New England. H850 temperatures according to the latest gefs
increase to 1 to 2 Standard deviations above normal. High temperatures
should be at least 10 degrees above normal...and may have to trend
warmer with later forecasts. H925 temperatures increase to +15c to
+17c...and highs in the 70-75f range will be common in the valley
areas...and m60s to around 70f over the hills/mtns. The upstream
upper level trough and its associated cold front will quickly
approach from Great Lakes region and southeast Ontario Monday night.
Breezy and mild conditions will occur overnight. The better
synoptic lift and dynamics look to impact locations north and
west of the Tri Cities with some showers. A slight chance of showers
was used late Monday from the Hudson Valley east...and higher
chances north and west of the capital district.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
after a mild start to the day on Tuesday...a cold front is forecast to
cross the Albany forecast area by the end of the day. This will be the
beginning of a transition to cooler weather with temperatures falling to
1-2 Standard deviations below normal by Friday.
Normal temperature range for the week here at Albany is a low around
40 and a high around 60. By Friday...highs will only be in the middle
50s at Albany...with highs only around 50 in the hill towns.
A slower cold front on Tuesday could lead to some thunderstorms for
the Albany forecast area. As of now...no mention of thunder in the
forecast as forecast cape is in the 0-50 j/kg range and showalters
forecast only as low as about 2.
With a trough digging into the northeast...additional short wave
energy looks to work through the region Wednesday through Friday
bringing occasional cloudiness and additional chances of
showers...mainly to the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains of
Vermont. It might actually be cold enough by Thursday night for some
snow showers at elevations over 2000 feet.
Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions should continue into Sunday...as the combination
of increasing high/middle level clouds this evening...and a
persistent light breeze tonight should prevent much fog from
forming at the taf sites. Will have to keep a close watch in case
the high clouds remain thinner than expected...and/or the wind
trends lighter than anticipated...which would then raise the
potential for at least some patchy ground fog...especially at kgfl
between roughly 08z-12z/sun.
Winds will trend into the north to NE this afternoon at 5-10
knots...although local topographical effects could allow for more of
an east/southeast wind to develop at kgfl. Winds will become light...from
the west to SW tonight at less than 5 knots. Winds will then back
slightly into the SW to S Sunday morning at 5-10 knots.
Saturday night to Columbus day: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
high pressure will build in from the lower Great Lakes
region and Ohio Valley today. The surface high will move offshore
tonight into Sunday with milder weather and above normal
temperatures expected to close the Columbus day weekend.
No fire weather issues are expected the next several days after
the widespread rainfall yesterday with amounts ranging from a few
tenths of an inch to around an inch for eastern New York and
western New England.
The relative humidity values will lower to 35 to 45 percent this afternoon...then
increase to 90 to 100 percent with dew and frost formation. The
minimum relative humidity values Sunday afternoon will be 35 to 55 percent.
The winds will be from the north to northwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour
today...and they will be light to calm tonight. The winds will
increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 15 miles per hour on Sunday and
no Hydro problems are expected the next five days ending Wednesday.
Some minor rises occurred on the main Stem rivers especially over
the northern half of the Hydro service area from the rainfall
yesterday. A dry stretch of weather is expected prior to Monday
A frontal boundary and an upper level disturbance will bring some
showers Monday night through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts at this
point will range from a tenth to a half an inch.
River flows will lower back to normal or below normal seasonal
levels for middle October.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on
New York...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for
Massachusetts...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for
Vermont...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am EDT Sunday for