Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
506 PM EST sun Jan 25 2015

with an Arctic air mass in place will be another cold night. A
significant coastal storm will impact the region Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. At this time...the heaviest snowfall is expected to
occur overnight Monday through Tuesday morning. Blowing and drifting
of the snow will occur as northerly winds increase Monday night and


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
it will be another cold night with lows in the single digits across
majority of the forecast area with below zero readings north of
Interstate 90. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes region
will shift eastward across the region. As the ridge builds in the
pressure gradient will weaken and the brisk and gusty winds will
diminish. Clouds will be in the increase overnight as an area of low
pressure passes to our south and begins to transition to the middle
Atlantic coast.


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
significant Nor'easter to impact region...with snowfall
accumulations of a foot plus from the capital district and
south and East.

Litchfield County has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. Looking
for total snowfall accumulations of 20 to 30 inches along with
blowing and drifting of snow and northerly winds increasing to
20 to 30 miles per hour and gusts up to 40 miles per hour.

The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to warning...expect for
northern Warren County which remains a watch.

The warning has been segmented into two parts. Part one is for
eastern Catskills...middle Hudson Valley...Taconics... Berkshires...and
southern Vermont where 1 to 2 feet of snow is expected along blowing
and drifting snow and northerly winds increasing to 10 to 20 miles per hour and
gusts up to 30 miles per hour. Part two is for the greater capital
region...helderbergs...Schoharie County...Saratoga region...Glens
Falls area and northern Washington County for 8 to 14 inches.

Along with northern Warren County still in a watch we have added
Fulton and Montgomery counties.

Rapid cyclogenesis with occur Monday off the middle Atlantic coast
as northern stream energy phases into the system with an upper
level low cutting off Monday evening. This will result in intense
deepening of the surface low and keeping it closer to the coast as
well as slowing it movement. The low become is expected to become
nearly stationary and wobble near Mont auk point/Cape Cod Tuesday.

There is a lot of moisture/quantitative precipitation forecast with this system. Have used the quantitative precipitation forecast
guidance from the weather prediction center for the forecast. This
gives US around 2 inches across southern inch into
the southern reaches of the capital district with amounts dropping
off as you head northwest with around a quarter inches across
northern Herkimer and northern Hamilton counties. All snow for this
storm...with fairly high ratios of around 14:1 to 15:1.

Snowfall gradient with this storm will be across our forecast area.
A graphic of our forecast total snowfall is available on our web Page
under news headlines.


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
active long term period expected with increasing potential for
another storm system to produce accumulating snowfall across the
region Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday into Thursday morning...the start of the long term period
will feature quiet conditions in the wake of the powerful Nor'easter
as high pressure ridges across the forecast area. This will result
in a period of dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. High
temperatures Wednesday look to range from the middle teens to middle 20s.
For collaboration...low temperatures Wednesday night are currently
forecast to range from 5 below zero to 5 above...but with a recent
fresh and deep snowpack likely to be in place with light
winds...actual low temperatures may be well below zero across much
of the forecast area.

Thursday morning through Friday...attention then shifts to another
clipper system that is becoming increasingly likely to impact the
forecast area with another round of accumulating snowfall Thursday
into Friday. This clipper system looks to be dominated by another
potent pv anomaly in the northern stream as it dives southeast from
the Great Lakes region. There are hints in the long range guidance
of yet another coastal low developing off the middle-Atlantic
coast...and tracking up the eastern Seaboard as energy from the
clipper transfers to the coastal low Thursday night into Friday.

While there are signals of coastal is still several
days out with a good deal of uncertainty regarding whether coastal
development will occur...and how close to the coast if it does. At
the very least...a period of light to perhaps moderate snow
accumulations is becoming increasingly likely Thursday into Friday
with additional enhancement possible if a coastal low were to
actually develop.

It should be noted that this system will not be as
strong as the noreaster affecting the near and short term this system looks to be northern stream dominated with
little...if any southern stream influence. Regardless...this system
bears watching and will be highlighted in the hazardous weather

High temperatures Thursday and Friday will range from the low 20s to
low 30s with low temperatures Thursday night ranging from the middle
teens to low 20s.

Friday night through Sunday...behind the potential system that may
affect the region Thursday into Friday...the region will be
underneath a deamplifying upper-level trough with embedded pieces of
weak energy rotating through it. For the weekend...Saturday looks to
be dry as high pressure attempts to ridge in from the Ohio Valley. A
weak and moisture-starved system looks to approach the area Sunday
with a slight chance of snow showers.

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will range from the single
digits to upper teens with lows Friday and Saturday night ranging
from 10 below zero to the single digits.


Aviation /21z Sunday through Friday/...
as we start the taf conditions will remain tranquil
as a storm system will move toward the region affecting most taf
sites toward the end of the taf period. As we start the taf period
up through 06z Monday...all taf sites will experience VFR conditions
with just some high clouds moving into the region. As we go past 09z
Monday... areas in our southern region around kpou will experience
some light snow moving into the region ahead of the main low
pressure system with lower ceilings. It wont be until after 12z
Monday where kalb/kpsf/kpou will experience more wide range snow
where MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in conjunction with low ceilings
and visbys.

Winds will be out of the northwest before 00z Monday shifting to the
north and then northeast as the storm impacts parts of the region.
Winds will generally be between 5 to 10 knots.


Monday night: high operational impact. Definite snow.
Tuesday: high operational impact.Breezy definite snow.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.


no significant Hydro problems are expected through the middle of the
week. The precipitation that does occur will be in the form of snow.
A significant snowfall will occur Monday night and Tuesday across
western New England and most of east central New York.

Ice will continue to thicken on rivers...streams...creeks...lakes
and other bodies of water.

The Eagle bridge gage on the hoosic river continues to be hampered
by ice effects.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Monday to 1 am EST Wednesday for
New York...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to 1 am EST Wednesday
for nyz041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for nyz039-040-042-082.
Massachusetts...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to 1 am EST Wednesday
for maz001-025.
Vermont...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to 1 am EST Wednesday
for vtz013>015.


near term...iaa
short term...iaa
long term...irl

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations