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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
447 PM EDT Tuesday may 5 2015

Synopsis...
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build into our
region tonight...while a frontal boundary stalls across the middle
Atlantic region. A disturbance tracking along the front will bring a
chance of showers to the Catskills late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Otherwise dry conditions and above normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the rest of the work week...as a large
ridge of high pressure builds in at all levels of the atmosphere.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 400 PM EDT...dewpoints and associated relative humidity levels
continue to drop across the region this afternoon...as a drier air
mass filters in from the north behind a cool front that is now
becoming stalled to our south across the middle Atlantic region. High
and middle level clouds to the north of the boundary will result in
partly cloudy skies across much of the area...except for mostly
cloudy skies across southern areas closer to the front.

Latest global/regional/high res models all indicating a trend of
pushing most of the shower activity associated with a disturbance
moving along the stalled front farther south than previous
forecasts. The boundary will likely be setting up in a northwest-southeast
orientation...as cooler/drier air from the north is pushing the
boundary farther south. So will only mention slight chance to low
chance probability of precipitation for the eastern Catskills...middle Hudson Valley and
Litchfield Hills after midnight. Best chances for a least some light
measurable precipitation will be over the higher terrain of the eastern
Catskills...although even here less than a tenth of an inch is
expected.

Cooler temperatures are expected for tonight...with generally middle to
upper 40s for much of the area from the capital district southward
and cooler 30s for areas to the north and in the higher terrain.

&&

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
other than chance of a brief shower across far southern areas early
Wednesday morning...dry conditions and decreasing clouds will result
in a rather pleasant may afternoon with surface high pressure in
control. Temperatures will continue to be above normal with most
areas warming into the lower to middle 70s. It will take longer into
the afternoon for southern areas to warm due to early cloud cover.

Dry and warm conditions will then persist from through Thursday
night...as an expansive middle and upper level ridge builds across the
region. Temperatures should warm a few more degrees for Thursday as
temperatures aloft increase...so most areas should have highs in the upper
70s to near 80. Overnight lows will initially be cool and seasonable
Wednesday night...but are expected to be around 5-10 degrees warmer
Thursday night as low level moisture starts to increase which will
not allow for cooling to be as efficient.

&&

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
expecting above normal temperatures Friday through the weekend with
increasing chances for convection Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures begin
to cool off early next week as a surface low heads towards the
Saint Lawrence valley by Tuesday...and may bring the region the
first widespread rainfall event since the about the 21st of April.

On Friday the region will still be dominated by ridging at the
surface and aloft...and dry and warm weather is forecast for Friday
and Friday night. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

During the weekend a weak frontal boundary will try to push into the
region...but will likely become nearly stationary across northern New York
and northern New England. The Albany forecast area will remain in a
mild southwesterly flow which will become increasingly moist during
the weekend. Have forecast probability of precipitation of 20 to 40 percent during the
weekend...with the highest probability of precipitation across northern areas and during the
afternoon/evening hours. There may also be thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening hours as well. The highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s
to middle 80s. Lows Saturday night in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints will also be increasing
during the weekend...rising to around 60 in some areas by Sunday...
which will make it feel humid for the first time since last Summer.
Lows Sunday night will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

The low pressure system will begin to approach the region on Monday
and have forecast probability of precipitation of 35 to 45 percent...rising to 50 to 60
percent by Tuesday as the low heads down the Saint Lawrence valley.
Due to more widespread cloudiness and showers...it will be a little
cooler. Highs Monday will be 70 to 80. Lows Monday night in the 50s.
Highs Tuesday in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

&&

Aviation /21z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period ending at
18z/Wednesday. Winds forecast to be mainly light and variable
during the period.

A cold front is expected to become stalled just to the south of
the area across Pennsylvania and the New York metropolitan area by
this evening. Clouds will be back on the increase tonight as a
disturbance moves eastward along the front. There will be
increasing chances for showers at kpou toward daybreak. Any
showers vicinity kpou should end by 06/17z.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent expected
Wednesday...
high Haines index values of 5 to 6 expected Wednesday...

Significant rainfall /greater than a quarter of an inch/ has not
occurred in well over a week across the region and state officials
have noted that Forest fuels are rather dry at this time.

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build into our
region tonight...while a frontal boundary stalls across the middle
Atlantic region. A disturbance tracking along the front will bring a
chance of showers to the Catskills late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Otherwise dry conditions and above normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the rest of the work week...as a large
ridge of high builds in at all levels of the atmosphere.

Wetting rainfall is not likely to occur until at least the weekend
when a frontal boundary approaches from the north and west. Until
then temperatures will be above normal with very little if any
chance for rainfall.

Relative humidity values will increase to around 60 to 90 percent
tonight...then drop to very low values of 20 to 30 percent on
Wednesday. Relative humidity will recover to between 70 and 95 percent Wednesday
night.

Winds will be rather light through the next few days. Winds tonight
will be northerly around 5 miles per hour or less...becoming variable on
Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night will be northwesterly around 5 miles per hour
or less.

&&

Hydrology...
scattered light rain showers are possible across the far southern
portion of the Hydro service area late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Otherwise dry weather should return for Wednesday afternoon
through the remainder of the week...as high pressure becomes
established across the region.

Most areas will see little to no precipitation over the next few
days...except for far southern areas...such as the southeastern
Catskills...middle Hudson Valley...and northwest CT...where only a few
hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch may fall.

As a result...rivers and streams will either hold steady or slowly
recede through the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jpv
near term...jpv
short term...jpv
long term...gjm
aviation...sand
fire weather...frugis/jpv
hydrology...frugis/jpv

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