Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
951 PM EST sun Nov 29 2015

high pressure and a seasonably cold air mass will be with US
through Monday. A storm system tracking east from the western
Great Lakes will bring unsettled weather to our region during the
middle week period including some mixed precipitation.


Near term /through Monday/...
as of 930 PM EST...per observations along with enhanced satellite
imagery /IR channel and fog 11u-3... band of stratus was
slowly migrating southward across the dacks...Lake George Saratoga region and southern Vermont. Trends along with latest
hrrr/rap13 900-800mb relative humidity fields and our 00z sounding suggest these
clouds may linger through most of the evening as we will trend the
forecast/grids toward a mocloudy forecast. The inversion is rather
steep near h850. Meanwhile a thin canopy of cirrus/cs from the Ohio
Valley system will spread into the southern Catskills...middle
Hudson Valley and northwest CT tonight along and south of i84. So main
update was to refresh the sky grids/forecast and tweaks to the
hourly temps/dewpts. It will be a chilly night with a few areas
where more breaks occur in the clouds overnight having their
coldest night of the season. Expect lows to range from the middle
teens northwest to the middle 20s southeast.


Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...
high pressure builds offshore by Monday and Monday night with
gradual warm advection in our region. Low level winds still look
to be light but shifting to more south and southeast. Highs Monday
ranging from the middle 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

From late Monday night through Tuesday expect clouds to increase
from southwest to northeast with mixed precipitation developing by early
Tuesday morning across the southern half of the forecast area. The
mixed precipitation with then move northeast across the remainder of the forecast area
Tuesday morning before changing to rain Tuesday afternoon. Partial
thickness values and BUFKIT model soundings support mainly a light
freezing rain event with the possibility of some sleet mixed in.
Expect lows Monday night to be in the lower 20s to middle 30s with
highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday expect mainly a rain event as the low
pressure system passes to our north dragging a complex frontal
boundary through the forecast area Wednesday morning. Total quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts through Wednesday generally look to be between half an
inch and an inch. Expect lows Tuesday night to be in the middle 30s
to lower 40s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to lower


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
the main moisture transport is expected to be sliding off to the
east in the evening leaving our region within a middle level dry slot.
However...the upper level cyclonic flow upstream slides closer to
our region to keep the mention of chance-scattered probability of precipitation into the
forecast/grids at this time. Initially the boundary temperatures appear
mild enough to keep precipitation type as rain showers. As this upper low
approaches...along with nocturnal cooling...the column cools enough
for some snow to mix in /initially across the terrain and may
progress into the valleys late/. The best potential for any
accumulating snow would be across the dack and higher peaks of the

This upper low transverses rather quickly across the region Thursday
with a gradual decrease in probability of precipitation /mainly across the higher terrain/.
Clouds too will be problematic as rather moist profiles remain in
place. Into Thursday night...that upper low is well east of the
region with drier conditions moving as large surface high extends
along the Ohio River valley into the middle Atlantic.

By the end of this week...there is a little discrepancy with respect
to a pv anomaly tracking across southern Canada. The GFS is the
most aggressive and further south compared to a more progressive and
weaker ECMWF/ggem/dgex. So we will leave the majority of the region
dry with some partial cloudiness.

Then big bubble no trouble as a large surface and upper level ridge
build and crest over the region for the first weekend of December
2015. This should result in plenty of clear skies and above normal
temperatures as h850/h925 values climb above 0c. In fact...latest
ensembles suggest h500 Standard deviations of 1-2 above normal.


Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions with a chance for MVFR ceilings through 00z/Tuesday.

Stratus deck...VFR...was slowly tracking southward. This was
impacting kgfl-kalb with trends favoring a borderline MVFR ceiling
into the evening hours. However...a decrease in the stratus
before arriving kpsf-kpou.

For Monday...latest trends now increase a VFR/MVFR ceilings for kpou
and perhaps advecting into kpsf Monday morning. For now...we will
place a scattered ceiling and monitor trends closely.

Winds will be northerly-northwest around 5 kts. Winds will
decrease to light and variable overnight...then become southeast
at less than 8 kts on Monday.


Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: high operational impact. Likely rain...fzra.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain.
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure and a seasonably cold air mass will be with US
through Monday. A storm system tracking east from the western
Great Lakes will bring unsettled weather to our region during the
middle week period including some mixed precipitation.

We will end our fire weather weather forecast
(fwf) and nfdrs (fwm) forecast with the afternoon issuance on
Monday November 30th.


no hydrologic problems are expected for the next 5 days.

Dry weather is expected through Monday night with the next storm
system expected to impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday
night. As of this time quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are generally expected to be
between half an inch and an inch. Rivers should remain below
action stage with the expected rainfall amounts.

Dry weather is then expected during the remainder of the week.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...bgm/11
short term...11
long term...bgm
fire weather...11


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations