Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1221 am EST sun Feb 14 2016
the coldest air mass of the season will impact the
region overnight into tomorrow...with bitterly cold temperatures and
dangerous to life threatening wind chills. A storm system is
expected to impact the region late Monday into Tuesday of next week.
Near term /through today/...
as of 1221 am EST...wind chill warnings remain in effect until 1
PM for all of eastern New York and adjacent western New England.
Arctic high pressure continues to build in from southern Ontario...the
Great Lakes region...and Midwest with record cold for much of eastern
New York and western New England expected overnight. Low temperatures were adjusted
lower over the southern dacks/Lake George region including kgfl with 20
to 30 below zero readings expected. Some locations like Big Moose
and Eagle Bay in the western dacks are already at 20 below zero or
colder. Min temperatures were also adjusted colder in the capital
region. Lows now are expected closer to 15 degrees below zero. This
would surpass the record by 5 degrees for Valentines day at Albany.
Locations well south and east of the capital region will be in the
5 to 10 below zero range. Parts of eastern Catskills...southern Vermont...and
the northern Berks will be in the 15 to 25 below zero reading range
with the coldest readings over the mountains
A significant upper air record has been broken with the 00z upper
air flight at Albany this evening. The h850 temperature was -30.8 c. The
record cold 850 mb temperature was -30.5 c set back on 4 January
1981 and on 18 January 1982.
The coldest airmass of the season will impact the region through
Sunday. The Arctic area of high pressure settles over the region
by tomorrow morning. H850 temperatures bottom out at 27 to 36 degrees
below zero by around midnight. Wind chills tonight will range from
25 below to 60 below zero with northwest winds 10 to 20 miles per hour with
gusts to 30 to 40 miles per hour prior to midnight...then slowly diminishing
On Sunday...expect very cold conditions to continue although winds
will be diminishing by afternoon as the surface ridge of high
pressure crests overhead. The wind chill warning remains in effect
until 1 PM after which time the winds are expected to subside.
Highs on Sunday will range from around 5 below northwest to around
15 above southeast.
Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
Sunday night...high pressure will move off the eastern Seaboard
late Sunday night. Winds will be mainly light and variable on
Sunday night with lows between 15 below and 5 above zero.
On Monday expect increasing clouds as the next system starts to
track northeastward from the southeast coast. Snow will break out
from south to north during the afternoon with a half inch to an
inch or so of accumulation possible by evening. Highs will
moderate on Monday ranging from the upper teens northwest to
around 30 southeast.
Monday night...snow will continue across most of the forecast area as the low
pressure system tracks up the eastern Seaboard to near Delaware-Maryland-Virginia by
Tuesday morning. While there are still model discrepancies...most
of the precipitation should remains snow Monday night except across the
extreme southeast portion of the forecast area where a transition to sleet
and rain is expected. Temperatures will be rising Monday night
especially during the second half of the night. By late Monday
night temperatures are expected to range from the lower 20s northwest to
middle 30s southeast. Plume diagrams for Albany from the gefs are
showing a transition from snow Monday night to a wintry mix to
rain on Tuesday.
Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
still considerable uncertainty as to how the system evolves on
Tuesday. The precipitation transition zone Tuesday morning could be
broad with a mix of snow...sleet and perhaps a brief chance for
freezing rain in the zone between the eastern Catskills...capital
district...Berkshires...southern Vermont...the middle Hudson Valley and
northwest CT...with rain to the S and east. There is a chance the zone could
shift further southeast or northwest...depending on the track of a strong
southerly low level jet segment and associated warm advection. Based
on the latest guidance...all areas should transition to a cold rain
or mix of rain and snow...outside of the southern
Adirondacks...parts of the southern Green Mountains and eastern
Berkshires...by Tuesday afternoon. In the colder areas...the
transition will be slower...more toward late afternoon. Highs
Tuesday in the 30s to lower 40s...with some middle 40s possible in the
middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT.
By Tuesday night...precipitation should transition back to snow and
snow showers with cold advection spreading across the region. Temperatures
should fall into the 20s.
Wednesday-Wednesday night...another shortwave follows quickly on the
heels of the early week system...albeit looking colder than its
predecessor...and also should have less moisture to work with. Some
sources of guidance suggest that it slips just south of the region.
For now...have indicated a continued chance of snow showers for Wednesday-
Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday should reach the 20s across
higher elevations...and 30s elsewhere. Lows Wednesday nt/Thursday am should
fall into the single digits across the Adirondacks...and teens to
near 20 farther S and east.
Thursday-Saturday...in the wake of a cold front...high pressure
should build in for Thursday-Thursday night...with dry weather
expected for later Thursday into early Friday. Highs Friday in the
20s to around 30...but some teens in northern areas. Lows Thursday nt/Friday
am in the single digits for most areas...except 10-15 across southeast
areas. Some subzero temperatures are possible across the Adirondacks. More
upper energy approaches Friday afternoon with strengthening warm
advection. Precipitation timing and type a bit uncertain this far
out...but some consensus in long range guidance for patchy light
snow/snow showers Friday afternoon...transitioning to a light mix
or eventually some rain showers for late Friday night into Saturday.
Highs Friday in the 30s...around 30 in northern areas. Lows Friday
nt/Sat am in the 20s. On Sat...there is the potential for warmer
temperatures by afternoon as low level winds become southwest...and a warm
front moves through. This may allow temperatures to reach the upper 30s to
middle 40s in valley areas from Albany S and east...with mainly Lower/Middle
30s to the north and west.
Aviation /05z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with a few-scattered
stratocumulus tonight...with some brief periods of broken skycover
in the 3.5-6 kft above ground level through daybreak. The strong subsidence from
the surface high will yield mostly sunny/sunny conditions during the
daylight hours and into this evening.
The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 knots through the early
morning hours with some gusts near 20 knots especially at kalb/kpsf.
The winds will diminish after before daybreak...generally into the
8-14 knots range...with perhaps a few stronger gusts up to 20 knots at
kalb and kpsf. North to northwest winds in the 8-12 knots range will continue
late this morning into the afternoon...before diminishing to 7 knots
or less around or after 21z.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Washingtons birthday: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Monday night: high operational impact. Definite snow.
Tuesday: high operational impact. Definite rain...sn...sleet.
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
with bitter cold air in place...ice coverage on rivers and lakes
will continue to increase and strengthen over the next few days.
Mainly dry weather is expected into Monday.
However...there is the potential for a heavy precipitation event
across the region from late Monday through Tuesday. There remains
considerable uncertainty regarding the types of precipitation that
may occur...which will ultimately depend on the exact track of this
storm system. At this time...model guidance is suggesting one to two
inches of liquid equivalent could occur. At least some of the
precipitation could fall as snow...sleet or freezing rain. As
temperatures warm by Tuesday morning...any frozen precipitation may change
to rain. If the threat of more rain were to materialize...it could
have a high impact on rivers and streams...especially considering
the ground will be fully frozen by that time...allowing much of the
rain to be runoff in areas that will not have snowpack. Details will
become more certain over the next few days.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
a frigid air mass will persist across the region today.
Record low temperatures for Sunday February 14...
alb -10 1987
pou -14 1979
gfl -24 2003
psf -12 1934
Low temperatures so far as of 12 am Sunday...
CT...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ctz001-
New York...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for nyz032-
Massachusetts...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for maz001-
Vermont...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for