Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
944 am EST sun Dec 28 2014
a cold front will sweep across the region this morning...behind
the front a cooler and drier airmass will be ushered into the
region. Another cold front will move across the region Monday
ushering in an even colder airmass for the end of the year.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
our mild weather will begin to come to an end today. The cold
front has moved through all but the southeast portion of the forecast area.
The showers will come to an end with its passage. Winds will
shift to west with its passage and colder air will begin to be
ushered into the region. Areas mainly west of the Hudson River
valley will experience early highs today with temperatures falling
this afternoon. Only some minor adjustments were made to the
forecast. Expect highs to range form the upper 30s northwest to
the upper 40s southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
the longwave trough across the Continental U.S. Will deepen and shift eastward
as we head into next week with fast zonal flow across the Great
Lakes and northeast. Overall fair and colder weather as we end 2014.
Temperatures will be much colder tonight than recent nights but
still above normal with lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Another cold front is expected to move across the region Monday
which will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air. Highs Monday and
lows Monday night will be seasonably cold. Lows Monday night are
expected to drop into the single digits to around zero across the
southern Adirondacks into the upper teens in the middle Hudson
Valley...with similar values anticipated for Tuesday night. We have
not had temperatures this cold since early December. Below normal
readings are expected for Tuesday by around 5 degrees.
Some lake effect snow is expected however it will be weak as
conditions are expected to be marginal and forcing weak in fast
flow. Only have some slight chance to low chance probability of precipitation into the
western Adirondacks and Mohawk and Schoharie valleys as the low
level flow shifts with time with the approach and passage of the
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
the forecast area will be on the northeast periphery of a sprawling
high pressure system that will move from the plains states across
the southern states during the first part of the long term period.
As it does so...the west to southwest flow around it will result in
some lake effect snow showers across the southern and western
Adirondacks. Have forecast 20 to 40 probability of precipitation in the southern and western
Adirondacks Wednesday through Friday...and generally dry elsewhere.
Temperatures will be seasonably cold. Highs Wednesday will be in the 20s to
around 30. Lows Wednesday night in the teens. Highs Thursday in the
20s to middle 30s. Lows Wednesday night in the middle teens to lower 20s.
Highs Friday in the middle 20s to middle 30s.
Friday night into Saturday...developing low pressure will move
northeast from the southwestern u... southern Quebec by
Saturday night. This will result in precipitation spreading across
the region Friday night and Saturday. With the low tracking to the
north and west of the forecast...expect some of the precipitation to
fall as rain...especially across southern areas. It will be milder
with lows Friday night in the 20s. On Saturday...highs will be in
the 30s to lower 40s.
Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/...
a frontal boundary and associated band of showers will cross the
kgfl/kalb/kpou/kpsf taf sites early today. Expect the front to
cross the taf sites front west to east between 14z and 16z. Ahead of
the front there will be MVFR/VFR conditions at the taf sites due to
-shra and br and ceilings between 2000 and 4000 feet. Behind the
front...MVFR ceilings may continue a little longer...but generally
expect VFR conditions at the taf sites this afternoon through
Ahead of the front...winds will be south to southwest at less than 8
kts...but at kalb there could be gusts up to 15 kts. Behind the
front the winds will become westerly at 8 to 12 kts with gusts of 15
to 20 kts possible...especially at kalb/kpsf. Tonight winds will
decrease to less than 10 kts.
Monday night-Thu: no operational impact. No sig weather.
no hydrologic problems expected this week. After today's rainfall
generally dry conditions with colder more seasonable temperatures
are expected. Ice should begin to form as we head into the New Year.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.