Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
134 am EDT Monday Mar 17 2014
high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region overnight.
This surface high will remain in control through Tuesday...
yielding cold and mainly dry weather. A clipper type system will
bring unsettled weather to our region during the middle week period.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
due to the middle and high clouds over the southern half of the
forecast area...and winds not diminishing quite as much as
expected...some minor upward adjustments to the min temperatures
through the early morning hours.
Short term /6 am this morning through Wednesday/...
quiet weather is in store for our region for much of the short
term period as a sprawling ridge of high pressure settles over the
region from southern Canada and lasts through Tuesday. A clipper
type system will be lifting a warm front towards our region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as it moves across the Great Lakes
region. This will result in an increased threat of mainly rain
showers in the valleys on Wednesday and rain or snow showers in
the mountains. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are generally expected to be less than
a quarter of an inch.
Expect highs on Monday to be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows
Monday night 15 below to 10 above zero once again. On Tuesday
highs are expected to start to rebound with readings mainly in the
30s. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the upper single
digits to lower 20s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
a fairly active pattern for the long term with a couple of quick
moving systems to impact the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday...and
then late Friday into the first half of next weekend. Temperatures still
look a little below normal with a persistent mean longwave trough
over the Great Lakes region...northeast...and southeast Canada
Wednesday night into Thursday...the ensembles...wpc guidance...and
deterministic medium range guidance are in pretty good agreement an
occluded front associated with low pressure moving northeast from
the Great Lakes region into S-central Quebec with bring a period of
rain and snow showers to the region. Probability of precipitation were increased to likely
values due to the strong low-level convergence and a fetch of
Atlantic moisture...as precipitable waters rise slightly above normal for the southern
zones...with a southerly /+v component/ wind anomaly of +2 to +3 Standard
devs moving across the region according to the latest gefs. Colder
air will filter in after midnight transitioning some of the rain
showers to snow showers /especially over the higher terrain/...as
h850 temperatures fall to -2c to -9c with the frontal passage across the forecast area.
Lows will fall into the m20s to near 30f over the hills and
mountains...with lower 30s generally in the valleys. Instability
rain/snow showers will persist with the upper level trough moving
across the region on Thursday...the greatest chances will be over
the higher terrain. Deep mixing should allow the temperatures to reach
seasonable levels with some m40s to near 50f reading from the
capital district south in the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT. U30s to
l40s will be common over the northern tier and higher terrain. Brisk and
cold conditions will prevail for the first day of Spring.
Thursday night into Friday...high pressure ridges in from the Ohio
Valley at the surface...and the upper level trough lifts north/NE into northern
New England...and the Canadian Maritimes. The surface high moves over
the middle Atlantic region by Friday...with the upper level flow briefly
going zonal...as the next cyclone moves into the Midwest and western
Great Lakes region. Fair and tranquil weather is expected during
this time frame with seasonable temperatures.
Friday night into Saturday night...the next disturbance approaches from
the Great Lakes region. Another cold front may be moving south from
the St Lawrence Valley by Saturday morning. Some discrepancy still
exists on the track and evolution of this system. The European model (ecmwf) has a
very compact low moving from eastern Great Lakes region to over east-central
by Saturday early afternoon...while the GFS is much further
south...tracking the cyclone south of Long Island. This would be a
colder scenario with critical thicknesses/thermal profiles hinting
at some snow. For now...have followed close to wpc with a rain/snow
scenario depending on how the boundary layer cools. Initial shot of
precipitation with warm advection ahead of warm front Friday night...and second
shot with cyclone on Sat into early Saturday night. High chance probability of precipitation
maintained for the stretch with temperatures a shade below normal.
Sunday...cold Canadian high pressure ridges in from the upper
Midwest with tranquil weather again...but below normal temperatures. The
latest GFS has h850 temperatures in the -12c to -15c range. Highs on
Sunday maybe in the 20s to m30s across eastern New York and western New England
with blustery conditions.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24 hour taf period
ending 06z Tuesday...as high pressure over southern Quebec
continues to dominate our weather. High and middle level clouds will
move across the area associated with low pressure well to our
south...with ceilings generally at or above 10-15 kft.
Winds will be northerly around 3-8 knots...becoming near calm after
dark Monday evening.
Monday night to Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn.
Wednesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...shsn.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Slight chance of
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: low operational impact. Breezy. No sig weather.
no Hydro problems are anticipated through the next 5 days with
little to no precipitation.
Temperatures will be below normal today into early next week...
further limiting the potential for ice breakup. Some unsettled
weather is possible Wednesday into Wednesday night with more
seasonable temperatures and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts generally under a half an inch
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.