Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
133 am EDT Monday Sep 22 2014
a cold front will continue to move across the region
overnight...bringing a few more showers. Cooler and brisk
conditions in the wake of the frontal passage will return for late
tonight into Monday. Looking further ahead...most of next week looks
dry...with seasonable temperatures during the middle of the
week...then above normal temperatures later in the week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 130 am EDT...a prefrontal trough has moved east of the
region...although scattered showers continue to affect areas from
around the Hudson River and points east. Most of these showers
should taper off from west to east over the next 1-2 hours.
A middle level dry slot will then translate east across the region
between roughly 2 and 4 am...allowing for some breaks in the
clouds to develop...particularly in valley areas from Albany
south. Depending on how light winds become...some patchy fog could
develop during this time.
Meanwhile...the main cold front...and a potent upper level impulse
across the eastern Great Lakes will continue tracking eastward.
These features should allow scattered to possibly numerous showers
to redevelop across portions of the western Adirondacks between 3
and 5 am...with isolated to scattered showers possibly reaching
portions of the western Mohawk Valley...Catskills...and southern
Vermont...as well as perhaps portions of the Hudson River valley from
Albany north...especially toward and after 5 am.
West to northwest winds will also increase toward and after 5
am...as the front and upper impulse pass through...and winds
through the lower levels of the atmosphere align from the
west/northwest...allowing for increased downward momentum Transfer
and some gustiness to develop.
Temperatures will gradually fall into the Lower/Middle 50s in most valley
areas...with upper 40s to lower 50s expected for higher terrain.
Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday night/...
the trailing upper level trough will keep conditions unstable enough
across most of the region on Monday to forecast probability of precipitation of 20 to 40
percent across most of the region...mainly during the morning. Only
the far southern part of the forecast area is forecast to be dry. By
later in the day...most of the region from the Hudson Valley east is
forecast to be dry...with only 20 to 30 percent probability of precipitation to the west.
Temperatures on Monday will be much cooler under the upper level trough.
Highs will be in the 50s and 60s...with a northwest wind gusting up
to 30 miles per hour at times.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
the entire long term forecast period will feature plenty of daytime
sunshine and clear skies each night...as our region will be under
the influence of a sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure. The
ridge looks to become firmly established Wednesday through
Friday...then even strengthen over the weekend as the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
indicating 500 mb heights increasing to near 590 dam over the
northeast Continental U.S.. since we will be approaching the end of
September...temperatures will be above normal but not oppressively
hot due to lower sun angle and less daylight compared to during the
Temperatures should initially be near normal through Thursday...then
start to warm as the air mass modifies. Full or near-full sunshine
each day will allow temperatures to reach the middle to upper 70s in
most valley locations Friday through Sunday. Humidity levels will
remain in the comfortable range...with dewpoints generally in the
40s increasing into the 50s over the weekend. Overall quite a
pleasant stretch of weather for the last full week of September.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
band of scattered showers from kpou to kpsf well ahead of a cold
front moving east quickly...so vcsh there through about 09z-10z.
Ceilings and visibilities within the band of showers are VFR. The
leading edge of the colder air behind the cold front is still in
western/central New York and ceilings have fallen into the MVFR range
there. So...after 09z-10z...these lower ceilings should spread
across our region...for intervals of MVFR ceilings through about
Cold front exits through the morning and west to northwest winds
increase...while ceilings rise back into the VFR range. Ceilings
should remain in the VFR range much of tomorrow and coverage of
clouds should decrease from variable broken to scattered through the
Winds from the west and southwest at 10 knots or less through the early
morning hours will become west to northwest by daybreak and increase
to around 15kt by middle morning. Winds should be gusty through the
afternoon...gusting to around 25 knots at times...then diminishing
slowly through tomorrow evening.
Monday night to friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent tonight...then lower to
between 45 and 70 percent on Monday. There will be scattered to
numerous showers across the region tonight into early Monday...then
we dry out Monday night and Tuesday and begin a prolonged period of
rain free weather through the rest of next week.
Southerly winds of 5 to 15 miles per hour with some gusts over 20 miles per hour today.
Winds shift to the west-northwest tonight...then increase to 15 to
20 miles per hour with gusts up to 30 miles per hour on Monday.
no widespread Hydro problems are expected through next week.
A cold front will move across the region this evening...bringing
some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Where rainfall occurs...
amounts will be a tenth to a third of an inch...with higher amounts
of 1/2 to 1 inch across Adirondacks.
A return to dry weather is expected for most of the upcoming week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.