Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
939 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016
an Arctic cold front will continue to push southward across the
region through noon. Behind the front...the coldest air mass of
the season will build across the region throughout the
weekend...with bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind
chills. A storm system is expected to impact the region late
Monday into Tuesday of next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
wind chill warnings begin this morning or this afternoon across
the entire area.
As of 935 am EST...a cold front continues to push southeastward
across the eastern half of the area this morning...with a
secondary boundary...possibly the actual Arctic front...stretching
from SW Vermont to just southeast of kalb into the eastern Catskills. Not much
snow shower activity along either boundary...although there are
some lake enhanced snow showers moving through the Mohawk and
Schoharie valleys into the eastern Catskills/Schoharie Colorado and
upslope snow showers across the higher terrain of western New
England. Any accumulations will be less than a half inch this
morning. Snow showers will become less prevalent this
afternoon...although a few More Lake effect snow showers may brush
the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County. Will only mention
low chance probability of precipitation at this time since most of the activity will be
confined to central New York.
The main story will be a frigid Arctic air mass building in
behind the Arctic cold front. Northwest winds will steadily
increase and become quite gusty by this afternoon. Gusts may reach
or exceed 45 miles per hour in some spots...and will mention in the wind
chill statement. Temperatures will drop into the single digits and
below zero later this morning into afternoon...then continue to
tumble later this afternoon. The most brutal cold today will be
across the Adirondacks...with temperatures dropping into the teens
below zero by day/S end. Wind chills values will be dangerously
low by this afternoon...mainly -20 to -35.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
wind chill warning continues tonight and into Sunday afternoon
across the entire area.
Tonight into Sunday morning is when the worst of the brutally
cold temperatures and wind chill values will occur. Gusty
northwest winds will persist through the night...making conditions
life threatening to those outdoors for any appreciable amount of
time. Actual temperatures will drop to around -10 to -20 for much
of the area...except -20 to -30 across the western/southern
Adirondacks. Daily record minimum temperatures could be broken in many
locations...including the Albany area Sunday morning. Combined
with the extreme cold...persistent wind will result in dangerous
to life threatening wind chill values between -25 and -45.
A significant upper air record could be broken at Albany this
evening at 7 PM or 00z when our balloon is launched. The current
record cold 850 mb temperature is -30.5 c set back on 4 January
1981 and on 18 January 1982. Forecast models are currently
forecast between -30 and -32 c for 00z this evening.
Dangerous wind chills and extremely cold temperatures will
continue into Sunday...although the wind will decrease somewhat by
Sunday afternoon. High temperatures of only around zero to 10
above are forecast Sunday afternoon. While it will still be very
cold...the dangerous wind chill values are expected to abate by
early afternoon as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the
Very cold temperatures in store for Sunday night too...but with
high pressure overhead at least winds will be much lighter so wind
chills should not be an issue. Still...most areas will have
minimum temperatures in the zero to 10 below range. Temperatures may
actually start to rise late Sunday night as the high shifts
east...although it will barely be noticeable due to the frigid
Monday will start out dry and mainly clear...although clouds
should start to increase during the afternoon as isentropic lift
starts to increase ahead of a developing storm system across the
Tennessee Valley region. Snow may develop before sunset
Monday...especially for areas south of Albany. Timing of onset
still in question due to model differences. Regardless...the bulk
of precipitation will occur Monday night as an open wave but potent upper
level trough tracks into the middle Atlantic region. Due to
differences in storm track...models vary on ptypes. Initially it
should be cold enough for at least some accumulating snow Monday
evening into the overnight. However...as warmer air aloft
potentially moves in...snow may mix with or change to sleet before
sunrise Tuesday especially south of Albany. Will continue to
mention potential hazards from this storm system in the severe weather potential statement.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
still considerable uncertainty as to how the system evolves on
Tuesday. The precipitation transition zone Tuesday morning could
be broad with a mix of snow...sleet and a brief chance for
freezing rain in the zone between the eastern Catskills...capital
district... Berkshires...southern Vermont...the middle Hudson Valley
and northwest CT. There is a chance the zone could shift further southeast or
northwest...depending on the track of a strong southerly low level jet
segment and associated warm advection. Based on the latest
guidance...all areas should transition to a cold rain or mix of
rain and snow...outside of the southern Adirondacks...parts of the
southern Green Mountains and eastern Berkshires . In the colder
areas...the transition will be slower...more toward late
afternoon. Highs Tuesday in the 30s to lower 40s...with some middle
40s possible in the middle Hudson Valley and northwest CT.
By Tuesday night...precipitation should transition back to snow
and snow showers with cold advection spreading across the region.
Wednesday through Friday...chaotic upper pattern with mean upper
troughing across the eastern U.S. And more upper impulses rotating
through the mean upper trough...especially Wednesday and Friday.
Upper energy based in northern stream expected to have less
moisture but scattered to isolated snow shower activity across
much of the region. Highs Wednesday in the 30s to around 40...some
upper 20s northern areas.
Dry weather Thursday after a cold frontal passage with highs in
the 20s to around 30...but some teens in northern areas. More
upper energy approaches Friday with strengthening warm advection.
Precipitation timing and type a bit uncertain this far out...but
some consensus in long range guidance for patchy light snow
transitioning to a light mix Friday afternoon and beyond. Highs
Friday in the 30s...around 30 in northern areas.
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
Arctic cold front will track through the region through middle
morning. A northwest flow of Arctic air will impact the region through
the day into the night period with gusty winds.
The last of the snow showers will exit kpsf around 12z...so
acknowledging vcsh there...along with intervals of MVFR ceilings
through 13z. Other than the brief MVFR ceiling at kpsf this
morning...VFR conditions prevail at all taf sites through the taf
period ending 12z Sunday.
A wind shift boundary preceding the Arctic cold front will result
in winds becoming west to northwest at 6-12 kts with some gusts to 20-25
kts. The winds will increase in the wake of the Arctic front later
in the morning into the afternoon at 12-20 kts with some gusts
around 30 kts...especially at kalb/kpsf. Winds will slowly
diminish during the evening but will still be gusty.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Washingtons birthday: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow.
Monday night: high operational impact. Definite snow.
Tuesday: high operational impact. Definite rain...sn...sleet.
Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely rain...sn.
Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...shsn.
Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
with bitter cold air in place...ice coverage on rivers and lakes
will continue to increase and strengthen over the next few days.
Mainly dry weather is expected into Monday.
However...there is the potential for a heavy precipitation event
across the region from late Monday through Tuesday. There remains
considerable uncertainty regarding the types of precipitation that
may occur...which will ultimately depend on the exact track of this
storm system. At this time...model guidance is suggesting one to two
inches of liquid equivalent could occur. At least some of the
precipitation could fall as snow...sleet or freezing rain. As
temperatures warm by Tuesday morning...any frozen precipitation may change
to rain. If the threat of more rain were to materialize...it could
have a high impact on rivers and streams...especially considering
the ground will be fully frozen by that time...allowing much of the
rain to be runoff in areas that will not have snowpack. Details will
become more certain over the next few days.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.
a frigid air mass will take hold across the region today into Sunday.
Record low temperatures for Sunday February 14...
alb -10 1987
pou -14 1979
gfl -24 2003
psf -12 1934
Forecast low temperatures Sunday morning...
CT...wind chill warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
New York...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for nyz032-033-038-
Wind chill warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
Massachusetts...wind chill warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
Vermont...wind chill warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for vtz013>015.