AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND SOME WET
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY... SUNNY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...STILL MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FEET AND ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WAS REPORTED LAST HOUR AT WOODFORD /ELEVATION 2300 FT/. DUAL-POL
RADAR DATA INDICATING MIXED RAIN/SNOW STARTING AROUND 2000-2500 FT.
NEAR TERM MODEL FORECAST SHOW THE COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT TO BE
OVER VERMONT...SO THIS IS MAINLY WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...AGAIN MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FT
ALTHOUGH SOME FLAKES MAY MIX IN BELOW THAT ELEVATION.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A RAW NORTHWEST WIND AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S.
COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MOST PARTS OF
THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ONLY GETTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...ANY STEADY PCPN WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST AREAS
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOUTHWESTERN AREAS POSSIBLE GETTING LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. BY LATE IN THE DAY EXPECT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TO BE PCPN FREE.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS ABOVE
2500 FEET...AND ABOVE 2000 FEET IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION FOR THE REGION...EXCEPT UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND UP
TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS AND CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN
FORECAST.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF FROST
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
A SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT
BE WET THE ENTIRE TIME. IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
THOUGH...WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EACH DAY.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SINCE
OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND IN A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED ON WEDNESDAY. WE STILL MAY BE DEALING
WITH A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD AGAIN
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN EXPECTED INCREASINGLY HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
AT THIS TIME FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF
DRY WEATHER AND LACK OF CONVECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID THOUGH.
ANY DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KALB/KPSF/KGFL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED AT KPOU
WHERE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LOCAL DRYING
THERE. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FINALLY STARTS TO EXIT
THE REGION.
FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF VFR...BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH
WITH OVERCAST SKIES REMAINING.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
6-HR TOTALS WHERE 1/2 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY FLOWS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS SLOWLY
RECEDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
