Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
424 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015
high pressure remains over the area through Saturday. A cold
front approaches from the northwest Sunday...then stalls south of
the region Sunday night and Monday. The next cold front crosses
the area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Near term /through Saturday/...
surface high pressure off the southeast New England coast continues to
ridge southwestward into the middle Atlantic region...as a slow moving surface
cold front moves east from the eastern Great Lakes into the lower MS
valley. Last vestiges of morning fog have finally burned off on
the Virginia Eastern Shore...with mainly high clouds impeding the sun at
this time. Temperatures have warmed a bit more than expected in
many areas...with middle 60s to around 70 the rule. A few areas in NE
NC/southeast Virginia have reached the middle 70s this afternoon.
Partly to mostly clear and not as cool tonight...with patchy fog
expected after midnight. Would not be surprised to have fog be
more widespread and dense tonight...with the potential for a dense
fog advisory later. Lows in the 40s to near 50. Severe weather potential statement has been
updated to mention fog potential.
Once fog Burns off Saturday morning...expect a day similar to
today...with temperatures 2-5 degrees warmer than today. Many
areas will reach or exceed 70 degrees Saturday under partly to
mostly sunny skies. Areas near the Bay...ocean and sound will be a
few degrees cooler...and areas where fog hangs on beyond middle
morning will also not reach full heating potential.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
Saturday night looks to be another dry night...with high pressure
only grudging giving way to the next frontal system approaching
from the northwest. Expect enough cloudiness to mitigate fog potential.
Most areas will remain at or above 50 degrees Saturday night.
The Sunday through Monday period will be focused on frontal
boundary movning into the area...then stalling south of the area
Sunday into Monday. Have leaned toward the NAM/European model (ecmwf) for frontal
timing and precipitation potential. Probability of precipitation will increase to high chance across
the region from north to south Sunday and Sunday night...with
40-50 percent probability of precipitation lingering through Monday across much of the region.
Given the lack of strong forcing...quantitative precipitation forecast not expected to be much
above .25 inch through Monday...with most areas receiving less
Temperatures will cool during this period...although there could
be a wide range in maximum temperatures on Sunday ahead of the front. Highest
temperatures...potentially reaching near 70...will be across southeast Virginia/NE
NC...with northern areas having a tough time getting out of the
middle 50s. Lows Sunday night in the 40s...coldest across the north.
Highs Monday...under lots of clouds and rain/drizzle...in the
upper 40s west/north to the middle 50s southeast.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
going with a blend of the 12z GFS/European model (ecmwf) for the extended period.
There is uncertainty with the timing/passage of the cold front on
Wednesday...and how close low pressure tracks toward the southeast and middle Atlantic CST Friday
into Sat. So...cool hi pressure wedge and ovrrunning will result in
40%-60% probability of precipitation for rain Monday night into Tuesday night...then 30%-50% probability of precipitation for
rain or rain showers with cold front during Wednesday. Dry weather Wednesday night
and Thursday...as hi pressure builds in from the west. At this time...going in
between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) for Friday with regard to low pressure moving off
the southeast CST. So...have 30%-40% probability of precipitation mainly over southeast Virginia and NE NC.
Lows in the 40s to lower 50s Tuesday morng...in the middle 40s to lower 50s
Wednesday morng...in the upper 30s to middle 40s Thursday morng...and in the middle
30s to middle 40s Friday morng. Highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday...and in the lower to middle 50s Thursday and Friday.
Aviation /21z Friday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions were being observed across the entire region as
high pressure centered along the coast remains in control. Expect
mostly clear skies to persist through this evening. Shallow fog
and some low clouds below 500ft may be a problem once again
tonight into Saturday morning due to the currently stagnant
weather pattern in place. Winds will be light and skies generally
clear despite some thickening high clouds from ric west. Any IFR
conditions which develop overnight and towards daybreak will
quickly lift a couple hours after sunrise Saturday.
A cold front sags south into the region on Saturday and gradually
weakens/washes out the remainder of the weekend. Expect increasing
clouds Saturday into Sunday with -shra possible at ksby and north
of kric. High pressure slides across the NE Continental U.S. Early next week...
building down into the Middle Atlantic States. Meanwhile... low
pressure crossing the Central Plains is expected to pull moisture
into the area from southwest and may result in overrunning precipitation
and steady MVFR conditions.
late this afternoon...elongated hi pressure extended from off the New England
CST SW into the southeast U.S. It will shift into the southeast U.S. And off the
southeast CST through Sat...while a cold front drops toward the region from the
north-northwest. Winds will be 10 knots or less at least into sun morng...but
seas will remain 4 to 5 feet due to easterly swell and higher
periods. The cold front sags S of the area during sun...with north-northeast
winds increasing for late sun through Monday...as hi pressure builds from southeast
Canada across New England. A cold front will eventually approach from
the west late Tuesday/Tuesday night...then pushes across the region Wednesday into Wednesday
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Sunday for anz650-652-654-