Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
711 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
high pressure will reside over the region through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
surface high pressure continues to build into the Middle Atlantic
States from the northwest today as a frontal boundary remains
stalled southeast of the area. Isolated showers over the waters
along and south of Albemarle Sound are possible through
this morning with mostly cloudy skies across coastal NE NC.
Clouds break up in the next few hours with mostly sunny
skies everywhere the rest of today. Another round of breezy
NE/onshore winds along the coast should be anticipated again
today...especially during the afternoon when gusts will average
15-20 miles per hour. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with
highs in the middle 80s inland...upper 70s to lower 80s closer
to the coast due to breezy onshore winds.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
a weak low pressure develops off the Carolina coast tonight and is
expected to slowly track NE through Saturday. High pressure
settling over the middle Atlantic region will keep the low well
offshore as it skirts by the NC Outer Banks Saturday and then out
to sea by Sunday morning. Isolated showers around the circulation
may be possible over the waters along/south of the Virginia/NC border...
otherwise will maintain a dry forecast for tonight through
Saturday night. Temperatures will begin to experience a warming
trend during this time frame. Lows tonight in the 60s (near 70 at
the beaches). Highs Saturday in the middle to upper 80s inland/
low-middle 80s at the coast with onshore winds persisting. Expect
mostly clear skies tonight...mostly sunny skies Saturday...and
partly cloudy skies Saturday night as moisture from troughing over
the Great Lakes/Midwest streams into the area from the west.
With the weak surface low off the coast...high pressure will linger
over the area on Sunday rather than slide off the coast as
previous days of model runs had depicted. Current model trends
keep a trough over the Great Lakes with a shortwave disturbance
moving up from the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee Valley. This set up
will favor a return to SW winds and support a gradual increase in
moisture from the S-SW...mainly in the form of clouds rather than
rainfall. Expect slightly above normal high temperatures around
90 degrees inland and in the middle-upper 80s at the coast.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the longwave pattern next week appears to be characterized by
broad middle/upper ridging from the north-central to northestern US...with a
weak trough in vicinity of the Gulf Coast. Broad east-southeast flow beneath
the ridge is expected to bring increasing tropical moisture into
the southeastern US. Whether this is in the form of a plume of tropical
moisture or some form of ts Erika is highly uncertain at this
time. Nonetheless...the general model consensus is to keep deep
moisture suppressed S of the middle-Atlantic region. Given this...
only diurnal probability of precipitation are forecast...primarily across the southern Virginia/NE NC
and in the 20-30% range. Warm and increasingly humid next week
with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s...with middle 80s at
the immediate coast. Forecast lows are in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Aviation /11z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure continues building into the region today...with VFR
conds. Some patchy fog noted as of 11z...but will generally not
affect taf sites. Otherwise...sct/bkn conds across far southeast Virginia/NE
NC...mainly sky clear to scattered elsewhere. North/NE winds this morning...will
gradually shift to the east/NE and will remain below 10 kts except
at korf/kecg where a few gusts to 15 knots will be possible through
Surface high pressure remains in control near/just North/East of the middle
Atlantic region through the weekend...with generally dry/VFR conditions
prevailing and winds to average 10 knots or less. Could see some patchy
early am fog each day Sat-Mon.
high pressure is building over the waters this morning and is
leading to slightly lower winds than yesterday at this time. Will
still tend to see an increase of a few knots around daybreak that the
north/NE flow will average 10-15 knots across most of the area this morning
(probably a tad higher across the south). Expect winds to gradually
veer to the east/NE and diminish to 5-10 knots later in the afternoon as the
surface high shifts along or just off the coast. Seas will average around
3-4 feet across southern coastal waters/2-3 feet north...with waves in
the Bay around 2 feet...and closer to 1 feet in the rivers.
On Sat...weak surface low pressure off the NC coast prognosticated to drift
back north (although staying well offshore) as surface high pressure
becomes centered off the northern middle Atlantic coast. This will keep a
continued NE flow over the area Sat...before shifting more to the
east/southeast Sat night in most areas. Seas will stay somewhat elevated in
the 3-4 feet range in the NE NC coastal waters...generally 2-3 feet
elsewhere with Bay waves mainly around 1 foot (2 feet at the mouth
of the bay). The winds will slowly trend more to the S/southeast Sun afternoon
into early next week with speeds averaging at or below 10-15kt. Seas
should average 2-3 feet...with 1-2 feet waves for the Bay/rivers.