Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
426 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015
low pressure tracks east across North Carolina this morning...then
moves off the coast this afternoon. High pressure slowly rebuilds
over the area from the west Monday into Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
initial area of rain has moved off the CST...however a second area is
moving out of the mountains through SW Virginia. Weak surface low pressure (alg west/
accompanying short wave aloft) will be tracking east across NC this
morning...pushing an area of rain through mainly central/southern portions of
the forecast area this morning. Will carry 60-80% for those areas...W/ much lower
probability of precipitation across far northern tier of forecast area. The low will shift off the CST this
afternoon...resulting in rain tapering off from north-northwest to southeast through the afternoon.
Toward lt aftn/eve...partial clearing possible...especially across the northern half of the
forecast area. NE winds become north this afternoon...gusty near the CST. Temperatures to be slo
to rise through midday/early afternoon...reaching lt day highs mainly in
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
rain to end across southeast Virginia/NE NC this evening. Partial clearing expected tonight over
the forecast area. Broad upper level low pressure extending from Canadian Maritimes to
southeast lakes will remain in place through Monday. Short wave diving southeast through the
mdatlc states on Monday brings vrb clouds and low probability of precipitation - especially north and east
locations (alg west/ continued cool conds). Low temperatures Sun night in the
l/m40s. Hi temperatures Monday in the l60s NE to the m60s elsewhere. Becoming
mostly clear Monday night...and slightly warmer on Tuesday west/ increased
amts of sunshine...highs mainly into the M/u60s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
the period begins with with surface high pressure in place
allowing for dry weather through midday Wednesday. Beyond then...a low
confidence forecast (weighted toward the ecmwf) brings low pressure
up the southeast coast late Wednesday/Wednesday night...then deepens the low off the
obx on Thursday before quickly shoving it well out to sea Thursday
night. Based on this solution...will bring slight chance probability of precipitation (20%)
into southern areas Wednesday...then slight chance probability of precipitation north and chance probability of precipitation
(30-40%) across the south Wednesday night. Will expand chance probability of precipitation (30-50%)
across the entire forecast area on Thursday (highest far se)...before dwindling
rain chances from west to east Thursday night as the low pulls away.
Dry weather then returns Friday into next weekend as high pressure
returns. Lows generally in the 40s to low 50s. Highs mainly in the
60s Wed/Thu...except upper 50s immediate coast Eastern Shore. Highs
then warm into the middle/upper 60s at the coast to middle 70s inland by
Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
scattered areas of light to moderate rain were moving off the CST early
this morng...but IFR to MVFR ceilings were at all taf sites except
sby. Another area of rain will move across the taf sites (except
maybe sby) from around 08z-17z today...as low pressure tracks from extreme SW
Virginia south-southeast into SC. So...will maintain IFR to lower MVFR ceilings at
ric...sby...orf...and phf during this time. Conditions will then
improve from north to S this afternoon into tonight...as low pressure moves farther
away to the south-southeast and some drier air filters in from the north-northwest.
Outlook...dry weather and mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday into
Wednesday morng...as hi pressure builds in from the northwest.
one low pressure area was off the NC CST early this morng...while
another low was moving into west-northwest NC. North-northeast winds 10 to 20 knots will
occur over most of the waters during today...as the second low drops
south-southeast into SC while the initial low moves farther off the middle Atlantic
CST. Maintained sca's over the southern two ches Bay zones...the Currituck
sand...and the southern two coastal zones until early this afternoon...through this
eveng...or through late tonight. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible in
these areas. Winds/seas diminish below Small Craft Advisory levels tonight...before
possibly ramping back up again Monday into Tuesday afternoon...due to low pressure
off the New England CST.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EDT Monday for anz656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for anz632-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz633.