Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
955 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
high pressure becomes anchored off the middle Atlantic coast through
Wednesday. A backdoor cold front approaches from the north
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
weak hi pressure surface-aloft to remain in vicinity of coastal Carolinas through the night.
Another mild night...W/ light winds mainly from the south-southwest. Low temperatures from l/m50s
in rural locations...u50s to around 60f in the metropolitan areas.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
surface high becomes anchored off the middle atlntc coast through middle week.
Models develop a Lee trough Monday afternoon but any convective activity is
expected to stay west of the forecast area as airmass remains fairly capped.
Sea breeze will likely develop Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny and warm. Highs
l-m80s xcpt M-u70s coastal areas...65-70 at the beaches. Mostly clear
Monday night. Lows 55-60.
Almost the same setup for Tuesday as the offshore ridge holds firm
across the region. Only difference is that the apprchg trough to
the north sags a bit further south late in the day. Still some model
differences as to how far south any diurnal convection can get.
Kept forecast dry through 00z Wednesday. Anthr warm day with local sea breezes
dvlpng. Highs 80-85 xcpt 75-80 coastal areas...around 70 at the
Will have to watch any convective complexes moving southeast along the
apprchg frontal boundary Tuesday night. NAM/GFS progg one such systm to track
across the Virginia Northern Neck / lower Maryland Eastern Shore Tuesday night. Will indicate
low chance probability of precipitation in the grids to account for this type of event. Otw...
mostly clear to pt cloudy. Lows u50s-l60s.
Surface trough out ahead of main frontal boundary apprchs from the northwest Wednesday with
best chances for convection in the afternoon / evening across northwestern two thirds
of forecast area. Warm with highs in the u70s-l80s...xcpt m70s coastal areas.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
followed close to wpc and superblend guidance for the long term.
Upper level ridging will prevail over the eastern Continental U.S.. a back door
cold front moves south over the Middle Atlantic States Wednesday night
and then washes out over southern portions Thursday. A surface high
ridges into the area from the east. Low pressure meanders off the
Carolina coast late in the week. This low has the potential to
become a subtropical storm (see tropical weather outlook). Details
of the progress of the low are uncertain but ridging is expected to
keep the low and its impact to the south of the County Warning Area.
Daily chances for showers with scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected during the long term with probability of precipitation of 20 to 30 percent...mainly
over southern and western portions of the County Warning Area.
Lowered temperatures a bit Thursday behind the back door front.
Overall...high temperatures are expected range through the upper 70s
to lower 80s except upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast. Lows range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions expected through the 00z taf period. Due to warm
temperatures and low dew points...no fog is expected at the taf
sites. Under a clear sky...light winds overnight mainly from the
SW. Little change is expected on Monday with a bit more wind by
afternoon than today...generally around 10 to 15 knots from the
Outlook...mainly dry weather is expected through midweek. There
is a slight chance for thunderstorms across northern portions late Tuesday with a
chance across most ot he area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
will maintain Small Craft Advisory for NC coastal zn until 7 PM...due to seas staying
up near 5 feet. Otherwise...an extended period of benign conditions
will prevail tonight into Wednesday morng...as hi pressure off the coastal
Carolinas...will slide out to sea. Fairly minimal synoptic
pressure gradient will be conducive to daily seabreezes and some
increase in S flow (tho speeds expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds). From Mon-Wed...seas look to average 2-4 feet while waves in
the Bay generally 1-2 feet. Backdoor cold front possible later Wednesday through
Friday...combined with surface low off the Georgia/SC CST will potentially
increase wind speeds and shift directions to the E/NE. Also...new
wavewatch guidance shows increase in seas for later Thursday through Friday.