Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
434 am EDT Monday Jul 6 2015
unsettled weather conditions will prevail through Monday as a
frontal boundary lifts north this afternoon. The front finally
moves north of the local area late tonight into Tuesday...with
showers and thunderstorms becoming more widely scattered. The next
cold front will slowly approach from the north and west through
the end of the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
remnant frontal boundary remains in vicinity of southern Virginia at this time. This boundary slowly lifts
north through the day as weak low pressure surface-aloft moves NE from WV.
Rain showers/isolated thunderstorms linger over portions of eastern Virginia/lower Maryland Eastern Shore
at this time...and will be continuing to the NE the next few hours. Expecting a break
in the precipitation into the midday hours. Trough surface-aloft will be crossing
the forecast area by lt this afternoon/early evening ptntlly leading additional (sct)
shras/tstms. Lclly heavy rain and gusty winds (sub-svr) possible in any
storms. Will continue to highlight ptntl in severe weather potential statement. Vrb clouds-pcldy
today...W/ hi temperatures from the l/m80s northwest to the u80s/around 90f southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/...
hanging onto 30-40% probability of precipitation over much of the forecast area until about mdngt tonight
before lowering thereafter. The pattern finally looks a bit drier
beginning Tuesday...as the upper low weakens while tracking into new
eng and weak ridging aloft devlops along the middle Atlantic CST. West/ a
SW flow at the surface...and rising 850 mb temperatures...expect typical
summertime heat with hi temperatures into the l90s most areas (for now
stayed a tad below guidance for highs due to moist antecedent
conds). Hi temperatures at the immediate coast will be in the 80s. Will
have just a 20% pop confined to the middle/late afternoon/early evening
period most places. Warm/humid Tuesday night with lows in l/M/70s.
Wednesday expected to be rain-free into the afternoon...before a cold front from the northwest
drifts closer...combining west/ heating could possibly result in isolated
storms lt in the day just about anyway in forecast area. Hi temperatures away from the
immediate CST 90-95f (u80s at the beaches).
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
typical summertime pattern to prevail for the end of the coming week
into next weekend as a sub-tropical ridge builds over the southeastern U.S.
And a series of disturbances pass mainly north of the local area.
Isolated or widely scattered after/evening thunderstorms will be possible each day (20-30%
pop). A weak cold front may drop south into the local area next
weekend which would promote a little better coverage of thunderstorms. Lows
through the period in the upper 60s to middle 70s. High temperatures in the upper
80s to middle 90s...except low/middle 80s at the beaches.
Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/...
frontal boundary laying across southern Virginia early this morng...will lift north
across the region during today...eventually moving north of the entire
area tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect
ric/sby/orf/phf during the morng hours. More scattered showers and thunderstorms
could affect the region later this afternoon into this eveng...esply
ric and sby. Then...a more typical Summer pattern expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Just isolated late afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be possible
those two days.
no headlines in the short term today through Tuesday night. A frontal boundary
laying across southern Virginia early this morng...will lift north across the waters
during today...eventually moving north of the entire waters tonight. Southeast
winds at or below 10 knots will become S over all the waters by early
tonight...then south-southwest 10 to 15 knots by early Tuesday morng. South-southwest winds 10 to 15
knots will continue Tuesday through Wednesday...in advance of the next cold front.
That front will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday morng...with
another front moving through Thursday night into Friday morng. Winds/waves/seas
will continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.