Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
1256 PM EST Wednesday Dec 18 2013
a cold front will move east and away from the coast this morning.
High pressure builds into the area from this afternoon through
Thursday...then becomes situated off the southeast coast through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
sny-msny across the forecast area and a bit breezy (gusts to 20-25 miles per hour...especially eastern
portion). Low level cold air advection begins to wane this afternoon from W-E. Hi temperatures from
the u30s on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore to u40s across interior NE NC.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
surface hi pressure from the west builds over the region tonight...then slowly sinks S
and southeast...eventually becoming established off the southeast Continental U.S. CST by
Friday. Meanwhile...complex low pressure begins to develop in the nations
Heartland...and colder air settles S out of central Canada. Across the
southeast and mdatlc states...a warmup is expected for the end of the weak. Model
tsections showing substantial increases in hi level moisture (by) Friday (alg
west/ an increases in moisture below 925 mb). Will continue west/ a mainly sunny forecast
for Thursday...then psny or mcldy Friday. Low level mixing to be limited on
Thursday given strength of low level inversion. That inversion not as
pronounced on Friday...as south-southwest flow continues to increases.
Low temperatures tonight from the M/u20s inland to around 30f right at the CST in
southeast Virginia/NE NC. Hi temperatures Thursday in the M/u50s. Low temperatures Thursday night from the
m30s to l40s. Hi temperatures Friday from the u50s/around 60f on the Eastern Shore
to ranging through the 60s elsewhere.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
00z/18 GFS/European model (ecmwf) continue to be in general agreement for the extended
period...though continuing to lean more heavily on the European model (ecmwf)...especially with respect to
to precipitation chances. Unseasonably warm conditions expected across the area
Friday night through at least sun (see climate section below for record
highs Sat/sun). Hi pressure will be centered off the middle Atlantic CST during
this time period...as a warm front lifts north of the region while a
cold front slowly approaches from the west. Have confined slight (20) or
small chance (30 or 40) probability of precipitation mainly to northern and western cnties Friday night through
sun...then increase probability of precipitation to 50 percent just about everywhere for Sun
night and Monday...as the front drops slowly through the area. Precipitation will
end from northwest to southeast Monday night into early Tuesday morng...as the front pushes
east-southeast and off the CST. Hi pressure builds over the region during Tuesday. Min
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s Sat morng...in the 50s sun
morng...in the upper 40s to upper 50s Monday morng...and in the upper 20s
to upper 30s Tuesday morng. Maximum temperatures will be in the middle 60s to around 70
Sat...in the lower to middle 70s sun...range from the lower 50s to middle 60s
Monday...and range from the middle 40s to lower 50s Tuesday.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites this afternoon through
Friday...as hi pressure builds over the area then slides out to sea. West-northwest
winds this afternoon...will become south-southwest generally 5 to 15 knots for Thursday and
Friday. Dry/mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at
have cancelled sca's for all waters as of 1017 am...as trend in north-northwest
winds has not been too strong and will be diminishing during the
afternoon...as hi pressure builds into the area. The high will slide
offshore for Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend...with SW winds
10 to 20 knots. Do not anticipate sca's being necessary at this time given
expected warmer air temperatures over cooler water. However...wavewatch
guidance does suggest the potential for seas building to 5 feet out
around 20 nm late Thursday and Friday.
unseasonably warm weather expected this weekend.
Record high temperatures for:
Sat (dec 21)sun (dec 22)
ric 73/1956 74/1923
orf 71/1956 76/1967
sby 66/1956 70/1949
ecg 70/1973 77/1967