Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
706 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
high pressure settles over the Middle Atlantic States today through
Saturday. A dry cold front moves across the region Saturday night.
High pressure builds back into and over the area for Sunday and
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
low pressure will continue to spin off the New England and Canadian
Maritimes csts today into this eveng...as hi pressure builds into the
area from the Ohio Valley. Under a mostly sunny...maximum temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
hi pressure will build over the region and just offshr tonight through
Sat...maintaining dry autumn weather. Clear/mostly clear tonight with lows
ranging through the 40s. Mostly sunny on Sat with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. A weak/dry cold front will cross the area Sat night.
This front will do little more than increase winds from the northwest on
sun...while lots of sunshine will continue. Lows Sat night ranging
from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs on sun ranging from the upper 60s to
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
a weak trough will be well to the southeast Sunday night as high
pressure settles over the region on Monday and then slides off the
coast Monday night through Wednesday. Overall conditions will be
dry/rain-free. As the ridge axis shifts eastward...temperatures will begin
to warm into the low-middle 70s during the day. Overnight temperatures will
likely experience a much slower warming trend with low temperatures in the
40s Sun night (low-middle 50s beaches)...in the middle 40s to lower 50s
Monday night (mid 50s beaches)...and in the 50s Tuesday night. The next
cold front to impact the middle Atlantic region is expected to cross
the area late Wednesday night. Expect continued warm temperatures with
breezy southwest winds and increasing cloud cover as Wednesday
Aviation /11z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conds will persist through the taf period with little more than
some scattered-broken high clouds above 12 kft ahead of a weak upper
disturbance approaching from the west. Otherwise, deep low pressure
system now east of Cape Cod will continue to lift NE toward Atlantic
Canada today, eventually locating east of Maine by this afternoon. Pressure
gradient has slackened and gusty winds have fallen off over the
County Warning Area. Northwest winds 8-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots this morning will
gradually diminish tonight and Saturday as high pressure builds
over the region from the west.
Outlook: VFR conds look to persist tonight through early next
week as high pressure builds over the region...eventually sliding
offshore early next week.
latest observation reflect northwest flow across the waters this morning ~15-20kt,
with some higher winds ~25kt persisting at elevated terminals. Seas
5-7ft (highest north) with waves 3-5ft on the ches Bay. Vert
stacked, deepening low pressure will continue to lift NE towards
Atlantic Canada this morning through early afternoon. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure will build west of the waters today. Resultant
pressure gradient will slowly slacken today as high builds into
the region, resulting in gradually diminishing northwest winds through
tonight. Small Craft Advisory flags come down over the rivers later this morning
and by afternoon over the Sound/Bay. Over the coastal waters,
winds will diminish with aforementioned slackening gradient. Given
that wind waves are keeping seas elevated this morning, expect
seas/waves subside through the day. Expect pressure gradient will be
slowest to relax over the far northern waters. Thus, have held
onto Small Craft Advisory flags until early evening north of Chincoteague, with Small Craft Advisory
flags dropping farther south by this afternoon.
A weak trough passes across the waters on Saturday, with sub-Small Craft Advisory
winds out of the north-northwest expected to back around to the SW Saturday afternoon
in response to the approaching trough. Winds then veer back to the
northwest after it crosses the area Sat night/Sunday morning. Only a modest
Post frontal cold air advection surge Sunday, so expect winds to average at or below 15 kt,
though a brief period of Small Craft Advisory will be possible late Sunday and Sunday
night as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds shift to the
east-southeast by late Monday as high pressure settles over the
waters...eventually sliding farther offshore Monday night through
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for anz633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for anz638.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for anz650.