Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
430 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
low pressure moves well off the coast coast with a cold front pushing
south through the Carolinas. High pressure builds into the region
from the north Thursday through Friday.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak low pressure off the CST...continues to move east and away from the CST today.
Initial cold front has settled into NC...secondary boundary draped close
by north of the forecast area at this time...and poised to push S today. Aloft...a weak short wave
will be crossing the region by this afternoon. Its associated area of weak
uvm ptntlly enough to kick off isolated/scattered rain showers...mainly across
central/southern Virginia. Otherwise...substantial drying from the north will be slo...W/
low level flow remaining from the north-northeast. North-northeast surface winds gusty...especially at the
CST...into this afternoon. Hi temperatures from the m70s at the CST to around 80f
inland.
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
surface hi pressure and associated dry air continues to expand southward into the
mdatlc region tonight into Friday. A period of very comfy (ery) Summer weather expected
west/ relatively low dewpoints...and temperatures avgg several degrees f below normal.
Any lingering rain showers (inland) this evening dissipate west/ clear-pcldy conds
expected overnight tonight. Models suggest ptntl for diurnally driven convection
over the higher terrain...primarily west of the forecast area both Thu/Fri.
Otherwise...pcldy west to mainly sunny elsewhere on Thursday. 00z/19 NAM developing more
significant area of low pressure in vicinity of coastal NC (alg stalled frontal boundary along
the coastal carolinas) by Friday...spreading cloudiness and low chance probability of precipitation into
portions of NE NC and extreme southeast Virginia. Not completely adjusting forecast in
that direction...but have added scattered-broken cloudiness to those areas
(mnly due to continued on shore low level flo). Otherwise...mainly sunny conds
expected.
Low temperatures tonight 9and again Thursday ngt) from the m50s to l60s. Hi temperatures
Thursday from the M/u70s at the CST to the l80s (well) inland. Hi temperatures
Friday from the u70s at the CST to the m80s (well) inland.
&&
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
a rather benign pattern is expected this weekend into early next
week as high pressure slowly drops S off the middle-Atlantic coast.
There is very little potential for shower/thunderstorm development
due to a lack of large scale forcing and any surface focusing
mechanisms. A general shift of the low-level flow from southeast-SW will
produce a steady warming trends with highs rising into the middle/upper
80s Saturday...to the upper 80s Sunday...and eventually to the upper
80s/low 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures should trend
upward from around 65 early in the period to the upper 60s/low 70s
late in the period.
&&
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
cold front will continue to push farther southeast of the area during
today. Lingering low level moist combined with some clearing has
resulted in the formation of stratus and lower SC behind the front.
These IFR/MVFR ceilings and possible visibilities will be around until 13z or
14z this morng. Hi pressure with drier air will build in from the north-northeast
later this morng into Thursday. The hi will then slide off the CST for
Thursday afternoon into the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail.
&&
Marine...
low pressure moving NE toward the northern Atlantic will pull the cold front farther
S and east of the area during today. A brief shallow northerly cold air advection
surge will result in 15 to 20 knots and sca's for the entire ches
Bay...the James River at the James River Bridge/Hampton Roads
bridge Tunnel...and the Currituck sand until 10 am this morng. As
for the ocean...north-northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected during today
with seas 3 to 4 feet...as hi pressure builds in from the north. The hi will
linger off the NE CST Thursday afternoon through the end of the week...as a
weak area of low pressure remains quasi-stationary off the NC
Outer Banks. This will maintain steady 10-15 knots on shore flow...which
will help maintain 3-4 feet seas. The hi slowly sinks S off the
CST during the weekend...with the wind shifting to the S and
remaining at or below 15 knots.
&&
Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
NC...moderate rip current risk from 8 am EDT this morning through
this evening for ncz102.
Virginia...moderate rip current risk from 8 am EDT this morning through
this evening for vaz098.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for
anz630>634-638.
&&
$$
Synopsis...alb
near term...alb
short term...alb
long term...ajz
aviation...tmg
marine...tmg
