Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
142 PM EDT Thursday Sep 18 2014
a weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening.
High pressure builds south and across the middle Atlantic region
through the upcoming weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak surface hi pressure located over the forecast area at this time...providing dry/comfy weather.
Mainly sky clear east...pcldy west...W/ most surface dewpoints from the u50s to l60s.
Very weak middle level trough approaching from the West...Crossing the region
this afternoon...W/ minimal forcing/dynamics. Strong cap in vicinity of 800mb as
well...so expecting mainly patchy middle level cloudiness through the rest of the
day. Have limited slight chance probability of precipitation for areas well west of the I 95
corridor. Otherwise...vrb clouds to pcldy west/ hi temperatures from the u70s to around
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
front settles south of the area tonight with high prs building in
from the north. Mainly dry...xcpt for a few lingering showers across
the Piedmont early. Lows m50s-l60s.
Tsctns continue to show some middle & upper level moisture across the area Friday
and Friday night along with a east-NE wind. Dry as models don't sprt any
precipitation. Highs M-u70s. Lows in the m50s-l60s.
Data showing moisture increasing a bit along southeastern coastal sctns Sat as a weak
trough prognosticated to rotate west and apprch the coast Sat morning. This
could be enough of a trigger for some lght showers across the southeastern coastal
areas. Confidence rather low that this occurs...so kept isolated probability of precipitation
along the southeastern coastal areas for now. Temperatures moderate to near seasonable
norms. Highs u70s-l80s.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
mainly going with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z European model (ecmwf) for the
extended period. The center of hi pressure will move into the northern Atlantic
Sat night. Weak low pressure will lift NE off the southeast and middle Atlantic CST Sat
night into Monday morng. Will maintain a dry forecast during this period
with a mostly clear or partly cloudy sky. Lows Sat night in the upper
50s to middle 60s. Highs on sun in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold
front will cross the area late Sun night and Monday...bringing a slight
chance of showers. Hi pressure will then build from the lower Great Lakes ewrd into
southern New England Tuesday through Wednesday. Lows will range through the 60s Sun
night...range from the upper 50s to middle 60s Monday night...and range through the
50s into the lower 60s Tuesday night. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Monday...and mainly in the lower to middle 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR expected to persist through the 18z taf period. Short wave
trough moving through area this afternoon/evening brings chance of a
shower or an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. The best chance will
be across kric and ksby. This trough will produce ceilings around 4
thousand feet. After the trough moves across tonight high pressure
will build into the area from the north. This will develop a
steady east wind of 10 to 20 kts for kecg and korf starting on
Friday into Saturday. With wind off the ocean will have some
scattered stratacu around 4 to 5 thousand feet. It should remain VFR
through the weekend.
NE or east winds will dominate the waters through Sat...due to hi pressure
bldng from the Great Lakes eastward and off the New England CST. Wind speeds
will likely remain around 15 knots or less through the period. Waves will
be 1 to 3 feet and seas generally 2 to 4 feet through Friday. Some longer
period swells (12-15 sec) will continue today due to distant tc
Edouard. A little stronger NE or east winds expected Friday and Friday night
due to strong hi pressure to the north-northeast. This will result in waves 2 to 3
feet (possibly reaching near 4 feet mouth of the bay)...and seas bldng
to 4 to 5 feet by late Friday into Sat.
Maryland...moderate rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz102.
Virginia...moderate rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for
Beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for vaz098.